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3/13 - 3/14 Midwest/Lakes Snow System

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#1
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 10:40 AM

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Models are converging on a second, and possibly stronger disturbance in what will be a series of waves that has the potential to lay down another accumulating snow.  Who will cash in on some more Spring snows???  The calendar has flipped into met Spring but Ol' Man Winter has other things in store.

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

 

 


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#2
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 10:45 AM

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Monday night into Tuesday has one of the better looks for Lake Enhancement on this side as I've seen all season.  Banana HP over the GL's will do the trick.

 

ecmwf_uv850_vort_ncus_6.png

 

 

 

ecmwf_T850_ncus_6.png



#3
gosaints

Posted 09 March 2017 - 11:13 AM

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Hopefully the EURO wins



#4
GDR

Posted 09 March 2017 - 12:07 PM

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Let's go euro

#5
Money

Posted 09 March 2017 - 12:09 PM

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Hopefully the EURO wins


Looks like if bumped up totals from last night

#6
james1976

Posted 09 March 2017 - 12:10 PM

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Whats the latest snowfall maps lookin like?

#7
gosaints

Posted 09 March 2017 - 12:10 PM

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Looks like if bumped up totals from last night

yes... super long duration



#8
james1976

Posted 09 March 2017 - 12:18 PM

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Whats Euro spitting out my way?

#9
indianajohn

Posted 09 March 2017 - 12:22 PM

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one of NWI worst snowstorms happened in March. Shut down the region for days. If its gonna be cold might as well snow... need to get rid of some of the gas in my snow blowers LOL!!

#10
Money

Posted 09 March 2017 - 12:27 PM

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Whats Euro spitting out my way?


2-4/3-5

Heaviest in Minnesota and WI

#11
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 01:10 PM

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12z EPS looks better organized...

#12
gosaints

Posted 09 March 2017 - 01:17 PM

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12z EPS looks better organized...


Yes much better

#13
Madtown

Posted 09 March 2017 - 01:44 PM

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Give me a storm if we're gonna get snow in march!

#14
Money

Posted 09 March 2017 - 01:59 PM

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18z gfs is a bit more organized and father north

#15
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 01:59 PM

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18z GFS trending towards the Euro...ableit slowly...



#16
Money

Posted 09 March 2017 - 02:07 PM

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18z GFS trending towards the Euro...ableit slowly...


Yeah was a couple mb stronger this run compared to 12z

#17
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 02:08 PM

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A better looking inverted trough to begin with and developing into a negative tilted trough over the Lakes...

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_18.png



#18
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 02:09 PM

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Yeah was a couple mb stronger this run compared to 12z

Stronger, earlier will be the trend I'm going to pay attn to and EURO has been the only model showing this the past 2 days.  GFS flashed it 2 days ago, but may be going back to it.



#19
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 02:13 PM

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Starting to see Lehs showing up on the GFS.  In fact, it keeps it snowing off the lake in NE IL through Tue night.  The last 4 runs of the GFS are expanding the accumulating snow in all directions.



#20
Money

Posted 09 March 2017 - 02:41 PM

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GFS:

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#21
Money

Posted 09 March 2017 - 02:42 PM

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GEM really showing the LEHS off Milwaukee:

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#22
james1976

Posted 09 March 2017 - 04:13 PM

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Lock it in. Liking the trends

#23
Niko

Posted 09 March 2017 - 06:01 PM

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For heavy snow to be thrown back across the eastern Great Lakes region, the storm would have to strengthen very quickly and hug the mid-Atlantic coast. :unsure:



#24
Money

Posted 09 March 2017 - 06:43 PM

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0z NAM def coming in stronger/north

 

HR 69:

 

refcmp_ptype.conus.png



#25
jaster220

Posted 09 March 2017 - 06:44 PM

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one of NWI worst snowstorms happened in March. Shut down the region for days. If its gonna be cold might as well snow... need to get rid of some of the gas in my snow blowers LOL!!


Exactly which historic storm are you speaking of??

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#26
jaster220

Posted 09 March 2017 - 06:47 PM

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@Tom

Every time I update my signature on my android tablet, it goes to what you see. Any recommendations?

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#27
Money

Posted 09 March 2017 - 06:49 PM

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E. Iowa hit pretty good:

 

refcmp_ptype.conus.png

 

 

Still snowing at this point:

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png



#28
jaster220

Posted 09 March 2017 - 06:50 PM

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0z NAM def coming in stronger/north
 
HR 69:
 
refcmp_ptype.conus.png


No!!!! Don't want any snow...Keep it over your way!

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#29
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 06:51 PM

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@Tom

Every time I update my signature on my android tablet, it goes to what you see. Any recommendations?


No, sorry. I'm not sure about that. You may have to PM IFred.
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#30
Money

Posted 09 March 2017 - 06:59 PM

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NAM showing 14-16:1 ratios:

 

ratioku.us_mw.png



#31
Hoosier

Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:15 PM

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Exactly which historic storm are you speaking of??


I'm guessing he's talking about the 1998 storm. Hey, it's actually the anniversary.

Remains one of the most poorly forecasted storms I have ever seen. I'll never forget looking at the radar before going to sleep and thinking that something wasn't right with the forecast. The forecast was for an inch or less, and the actual result was a blizzard that dumped 12+. The surprise nature of it caused enormous travel difficulties with many people stranded. The combination of heavy snow and high winds also left some areas without power for many days.
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#32
Money

Posted 09 March 2017 - 08:08 PM

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Another small step towards the Euro on 0z GFS. 

 

A bit stronger and slower.

 

East coast gets crushed 



#33
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 08:15 PM

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Lehs signature is growing for NE IL. I have seen this type of set up before and Chicago usually does fairly well. It looks like the storm phases earlier causing a big shift west almost tracking right over NYC.

#34
Money

Posted 09 March 2017 - 08:17 PM

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Lehs signature is growing for NE IL. I have seen this type of set up before and Chicago usually does fairly well. It looks like the storm phases earlier causing a big shift west almost tracking right over NYC.

 

GEM gets it down to 983 off the east coast. They get buried...



#35
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 08:28 PM

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00z GFS...totals creeping higher overall...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#36
james1976

Posted 09 March 2017 - 08:35 PM

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Ill take 6-8. Wow

#37
james1976

Posted 09 March 2017 - 08:36 PM

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So this same system bombs out on the EC?

#38
Money

Posted 09 March 2017 - 08:43 PM

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GEM:

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#39
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 08:46 PM

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So this same system bombs out on the EC?

Yup..secondary energy forms off the Carolina's and this systems energy transfers over to the coastal low and bombs out.



#40
Money

Posted 09 March 2017 - 10:11 PM

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0z euro even farther north than 12z. Low is stronger/north 



#41
Money

Posted 09 March 2017 - 10:31 PM

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Looks like a general 2-3/3-4 for eastern IA/Chicago.

 

6-7 for gosaints and 5-7 for southern/central WI.

 

8-9 up towards Eau Claire. 

 

Temps were warmer and a bit faster hence the lower totals but the storm was def. stronger/north compared to 12z. 



#42
Snoorani

Posted 09 March 2017 - 10:38 PM

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How does LE looks?

#43
Money

Posted 09 March 2017 - 10:45 PM

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How does LE looks?

 

not much in N. IL but really hammers eastern WI (Sheboygan-Milwaukee ish) 



#44
GDR

Posted 10 March 2017 - 01:18 AM

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Good luck riding the euro buddy

#45
Money

Posted 10 March 2017 - 02:09 AM

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6z GFS:

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

6z NAM (still snowing at the time in the area)

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#46
james1976

Posted 10 March 2017 - 04:53 AM

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Is Euro the furthest north?

#47
james1976

Posted 10 March 2017 - 05:07 AM

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DMX had a decent read. Saying headlines will be likely. Going with a model blend atm with highest snowfall across N IA.

#48
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 05:32 AM

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06z GFS...another look...

 

 



#49
james1976

Posted 10 March 2017 - 05:38 AM

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You can really see the LES feature around MKE and south

#50
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 06:01 AM

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You can really see the LES feature around MKE and south

Yup, good signal this far out.  Where ever that lake band sets up it will snow heavily given how cold 850's are and the warmth of the lake.  Current lake shore water temps are running in the upper 30's and low/mid 40's in the middle of the lake.  

 

 

mswt-00.gif