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3/13 - 3/14 Midwest/Lakes Snow System


Tom

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Models are converging on a second, and possibly stronger disturbance in what will be a series of waves that has the potential to lay down another accumulating snow.  Who will cash in on some more Spring snows???  The calendar has flipped into met Spring but Ol' Man Winter has other things in store.

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

 

 

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Monday night into Tuesday has one of the better looks for Lake Enhancement on this side as I've seen all season.  Banana HP over the GL's will do the trick.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017030912/ecmwf_uv850_vort_ncus_6.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017030912/ecmwf_T850_ncus_6.png

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Yeah was a couple mb stronger this run compared to 12z

Stronger, earlier will be the trend I'm going to pay attn to and EURO has been the only model showing this the past 2 days.  GFS flashed it 2 days ago, but may be going back to it.

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For heavy snow to be thrown back across the eastern Great Lakes region, the storm would have to strengthen very quickly and hug the mid-Atlantic coast. :unsure:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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one of NWI worst snowstorms happened in March. Shut down the region for days. If its gonna be cold might as well snow... need to get rid of some of the gas in my snow blowers LOL!!

Exactly which historic storm are you speaking of??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@Tom

 

Every time I update my signature on my android tablet, it goes to what you see. Any recommendations?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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0z NAM def coming in stronger/north

 

HR 69:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017031000/069/refcmp_ptype.conus.png

No!!!! Don't want any snow...Keep it over your way!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Exactly which historic storm are you speaking of??

I'm guessing he's talking about the 1998 storm. Hey, it's actually the anniversary.

 

Remains one of the most poorly forecasted storms I have ever seen. I'll never forget looking at the radar before going to sleep and thinking that something wasn't right with the forecast. The forecast was for an inch or less, and the actual result was a blizzard that dumped 12+. The surprise nature of it caused enormous travel difficulties with many people stranded. The combination of heavy snow and high winds also left some areas without power for many days.

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Lehs signature is growing for NE IL. I have seen this type of set up before and Chicago usually does fairly well. It looks like the storm phases earlier causing a big shift west almost tracking right over NYC.

 

GEM gets it down to 983 off the east coast. They get buried...

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