3/13 - 3/14 Midwest/Lakes Snow System

[Money]

Looks like a general 2-3/3-4 for eastern IA/Chicago.

 

6-7 for gosaints and 5-7 for southern/central WI.

 

8-9 up towards Eau Claire. 

 

Temps were warmer and a bit faster hence the lower totals but the storm was def. stronger/north compared to 12z. 

[Snoorani]

How does LE looks?

[Money]

How does LE looks?

 

not much in N. IL but really hammers eastern WI (Sheboygan-Milwaukee ish) 

[GDR]

Good luck riding the euro buddy

[Money]

6z GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031006/102/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

6z NAM (still snowing at the time in the area)

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017031006/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[james1976]

Is Euro the furthest north?

[james1976]

DMX had a decent read. Saying headlines will be likely. Going with a model blend atm with highest snowfall across N IA.

[Tom]

06z GFS...another look...

 

 

[james1976]

You can really see the LES feature around MKE and south

[Tom]

You can really see the LES feature around MKE and south

Yup, good signal this far out.  Where ever that lake band sets up it will snow heavily given how cold 850's are and the warmth of the lake.  Current lake shore water temps are running in the upper 30's and low/mid 40's in the middle of the lake.  

 

 

[james1976]

Cold temps leading up to this event will keep the ground frozen. No problem accumulating.

[Tom]

Cold temps leading up to this event will keep the ground frozen. No problem accumulating.

After tonight, I would imagine the ground would be frozen again.  Higher snow ratios and cold ground will certainly help with accumulations.  Hope this can continue to trend wetter.

[gosaints]

no turds allowed

[Tom]

12z NAM coming in a touch north and a bit juicier....

[Tom]

12z NAM showing 6-10" S/C MN through Sunday...

[Niko]

This is an EC storm, not a midwest storm. Midwest gets peanuts compared to what they will get. Btw, all the snow they end up getting will disappear in notime, thats why I hate March snows.

[gosaints]

This is an EC storm, not a midwest storm. Midwest gets peanuts compared to what they will get. Btw, all the snow they end up getting will disappear in notime, thats why I hate March snows.

big cities on the coast could easily still see a rainer

[Tom]

12z NAM...seems to try to get its act together towards the end of the run..

[St Paul Storm]

I really haven't been paying attention lately, just assuming it was going to be the usual dry and cold. Looks like I might be able to fire up the snowblower to use up the rest of the gas? Not sure I believe the NAM at this range. But the frigid temps before this hits will help with accumulations early next week for sure.

[Tom]

12z NAM...total qpf thru Hr 84 with snow still falling over E IA/WI/IL/N IN/MI...MKE/Racine seeing the easterly flow off the lake...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017031012/namconus_apcpn_ncus_28.png

[Tom]

I really haven't been paying attention lately, just assuming it was going to be the usual dry and cold. Looks like I might be able to fire up the snowblower to use up the rest of the gas? Not sure I believe the NAM at this range. But the frigid temps before this hits will help with accumulations early next week for sure.

Euro gives you snow so I wouldn't siphon the gas just yet! 

[Tom]

12z NAM-high rez thru Sun 6pm...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031012/nam3km_ref_frzn_us_60.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031012/nam3km_apcpn_us_20.png

[Tom]

Would be nice to see this storm start phasing earlier on and plug into more moisture.

[james1976]

Really hope thid doesnt keep going N

[Money]

Nam is solid

 

Good trends the last day or so

[Tom]

Nam is solid

 

Good trends the last day or so

If the winds are strong enough, I could see Lehs reaching out towards your area when the storm pivots and winds come out of the ENE.  How far inland are you from LM???

[earthandturf]

I could use a plowable event, last one was on Dec. 17!

[WBadgersW]

Haven't seems a decent Lehs set up in awhile... Things are looking interesting

[Money]

If the winds are strong enough, I could see Lehs reaching out towards your area when the storm pivots and winds come out of the ENE. How far inland are you from LM???

25 miles

[Tom]

12z GFS 3mb stronger compared to 00z...

[Andrew NE]

12z GFS 3mb stronger compared to 00z...

Don't get your hopes up, this is how the first wave looked this far out. Prepare for a secondary turd to follow the first one.

[Tom]

Don't get your hopes up, this is how the first wave looked this far out. Prepare for a secondary turd to follow the first one.

I agree, but this is a different setup compared to your snow tomorrow.

[Tom]

Phasing earlier on each run...

[Snoorani]

Tom how is LE looking for Chicago?

[Tom]

Tom how is LE looking for Chicago?

Looking better each run. I'm pretty optimistic there will be a lake plume on the back end of the storm and it doesn't pivot through quickly which could add up totals in SE WI/NE IL. 850's crash as cold core trough swings through over head on Tuesday morning.

[Tom]

Niko is looking better for decent snowfall...the key will be how quick it phases and pulls west.

[gimmesnow]

Is all of this cold and snow happening because we finally got a blocking pattern?

[Tom]

Is all of this cold and snow happening because we finally got a blocking pattern?

I wouldn't say its a true high latitude blocking but instead of sudden shortening of wave lengths.

[james1976]

Hows 12z lookin with snowfall?

[gosaints]

Is all of this cold and snow happening because we finally got a blocking pattern?

There isnt a block in place.  in the sense of the AO or NAO.