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3/13 - 3/14 Midwest/Lakes Snow System

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#51
james1976

Posted 10 March 2017 - 06:22 AM

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Cold temps leading up to this event will keep the ground frozen. No problem accumulating.

#52
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 06:27 AM

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Cold temps leading up to this event will keep the ground frozen. No problem accumulating.

After tonight, I would imagine the ground would be frozen again.  Higher snow ratios and cold ground will certainly help with accumulations.  Hope this can continue to trend wetter.


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#53
gosaints

Posted 10 March 2017 - 06:29 AM

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no turds allowed


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#54
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 06:34 AM

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12z NAM coming in a touch north and a bit juicier....



#55
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 06:42 AM

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12z NAM showing 6-10" S/C MN through Sunday...



#56
Niko

Posted 10 March 2017 - 06:44 AM

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This is an EC storm, not a midwest storm. Midwest gets peanuts compared to what they will get. Btw, all the snow they end up getting will disappear in notime, thats why I hate March snows. :lol:



#57
gosaints

Posted 10 March 2017 - 06:46 AM

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This is an EC storm, not a midwest storm. Midwest gets peanuts compared to what they will get. Btw, all the snow they end up getting will disappear in notime, thats why I hate March snows. :lol:

big cities on the coast could easily still see a rainer



#58
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 06:50 AM

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12z NAM...seems to try to get its act together towards the end of the run..



#59
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 March 2017 - 06:56 AM

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I really haven't been paying attention lately, just assuming it was going to be the usual dry and cold. Looks like I might be able to fire up the snowblower to use up the rest of the gas? Not sure I believe the NAM at this range. But the frigid temps before this hits will help with accumulations early next week for sure.

#60
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 06:57 AM

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12z NAM...total qpf thru Hr 84 with snow still falling over E IA/WI/IL/N IN/MI...MKE/Racine seeing the easterly flow off the lake...

 

namconus_apcpn_ncus_28.png



#61
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 06:58 AM

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I really haven't been paying attention lately, just assuming it was going to be the usual dry and cold. Looks like I might be able to fire up the snowblower to use up the rest of the gas? Not sure I believe the NAM at this range. But the frigid temps before this hits will help with accumulations early next week for sure.

Euro gives you snow so I wouldn't siphon the gas just yet! 



#62
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 06:59 AM

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12z NAM-high rez thru Sun 6pm...

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_us_60.png

 

 

nam3km_apcpn_us_20.png



#63
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 07:01 AM

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Would be nice to see this storm start phasing earlier on and plug into more moisture.


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#64
james1976

Posted 10 March 2017 - 07:04 AM

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Really hope thid doesnt keep going N

#65
Money

Posted 10 March 2017 - 07:11 AM

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Nam is solid

Good trends the last day or so

#66
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 07:17 AM

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Nam is solid

Good trends the last day or so

If the winds are strong enough, I could see Lehs reaching out towards your area when the storm pivots and winds come out of the ENE.  How far inland are you from LM???



#67
earthandturf

Posted 10 March 2017 - 07:36 AM

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I could use a plowable event, last one was on Dec. 17!


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#68
WBadgersW

Posted 10 March 2017 - 07:37 AM

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Haven't seems a decent Lehs set up in awhile... Things are looking interesting

#69
Money

Posted 10 March 2017 - 07:49 AM

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If the winds are strong enough, I could see Lehs reaching out towards your area when the storm pivots and winds come out of the ENE. How far inland are you from LM???


25 miles

#70
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 07:52 AM

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12z GFS 3mb stronger compared to 00z...

#71
Andrew NE

Posted 10 March 2017 - 07:53 AM

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12z GFS 3mb stronger compared to 00z...


Don't get your hopes up, this is how the first wave looked this far out. Prepare for a secondary turd to follow the first one.
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#72
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 07:55 AM

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Don't get your hopes up, this is how the first wave looked this far out. Prepare for a secondary turd to follow the first one.


I agree, but this is a different setup compared to your snow tomorrow.

#73
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:01 AM

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Phasing earlier on each run...
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#74
Snoorani

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:06 AM

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Tom how is LE looking for Chicago?

#75
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:12 AM

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Tom how is LE looking for Chicago?


Looking better each run. I'm pretty optimistic there will be a lake plume on the back end of the storm and it doesn't pivot through quickly which could add up totals in SE WI/NE IL. 850's crash as cold core trough swings through over head on Tuesday morning.

#76
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:13 AM

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Niko is looking better for decent snowfall...the key will be how quick it phases and pulls west.
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#77
gimmesnow

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:13 AM

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Is all of this cold and snow happening because we finally got a blocking pattern?



#78
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:18 AM

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Is all of this cold and snow happening because we finally got a blocking pattern?

I wouldn't say its a true high latitude blocking but instead of sudden shortening of wave lengths.


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#79
james1976

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:20 AM

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Hows 12z lookin with snowfall?

#80
gosaints

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:21 AM

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Is all of this cold and snow happening because we finally got a blocking pattern?

There isnt a block in place.  in the sense of the AO or NAO.  


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#81
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:22 AM

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Tom how is LE looking for Chicago?

This is when an intense lake plume has the potential to from when 528 thickness swings through Tuesday morning...

 

Monday at midnight...

 

gfs_z500_vort_ncus_16.png

 

6:00am Tuesday...

 

gfs_z500_vort_ncus_17.png

 

 

12:00pm Tuesday...these maps will change but gives us an idea of how it may unfold...this would produce some great convergence...

 

gfs_z500_vort_ncus_18.png


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#82
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:25 AM

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12z GFS...looking better for IA/MN/WI/IL/IN/MI posters...



#83
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:27 AM

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12z GFS close up...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#84
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:30 AM

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Comparison from 00z vs 12z...the gap of snow between IA & OH keeps shrinking and is likely due to an earlier phase.

 

00z last night...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

12z today...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

The stronger the northern piece can hold, the better chance it can pull the coastal energy inland and ultimately throwing back more moisture as trough goes neg tilt.  Trend has been for a stronger northern piece so lets see what the Euro says.


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#85
james1976

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:31 AM

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Sign me up!
Id be getting close to avg season snowfall if that verified.

#86
gosaints

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:31 AM

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GGEM

 

gem_asnow_ncus_20.png



#87
james1976

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:38 AM

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Comparison from 00z vs 12z...the gap of snow between IA & OH keeps shrinking and is likely due to an earlier phase.

00z last night...

snku_acc.us_mw.png


12z today...

snku_acc.us_mw.png


The stronger the northern piece can hold, the better chance it can pull the coastal energy inland and ultimately throwing back more moisture as trough goes neg tilt. Trend has been for a stronger northern piece so lets see what the Euro says.

Would that necessarily mean a more N track?

#88
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:39 AM

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I took a quick look at the soundings for MSP. Not sure I buy those Kuchera totals on the GFS. The DGZ looks a little iffy.

#89
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:40 AM

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Would that necessarily mean a more N track?

Not necessarily, will prob see small shifts but nothing drastic.  Too much HP to the north to cause any significant shifts north and the models are pretty much locked on track through the Midwest/Lakes.


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#90
Money

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:51 AM

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12z ukie with 1012 L in southern IA at 72

#91
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:58 AM

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Sign me up!
Id be getting close to avg season snowfall if that verified.

We have a lot more to go than you do to get towards average.  Sitting at 18.2" for the season.  Would need to about double that.



#92
jaster220

Posted 10 March 2017 - 09:07 AM

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Liking the (model) trends.overnight. Still first half of March, so I'd buy a ticket to ride this puppy...dragging me back in with an actual plow-worthy synoptic system. I was beyond done with this winter about a month ago tbh.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#93
Madtown

Posted 10 March 2017 - 09:09 AM

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Not buying into anything till Sat pm. Looks like a nuisance event at best here

#94
BrianJK

Posted 10 March 2017 - 09:38 AM

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Not buying into anything till Sat pm. Looks like a nuisance event at best here

 

Hopefully the High either shifts or weakens so this thing can push north for you.  I don't want anything more than flurries around these parts.  If we can dodge this one, there's a decent chance to extend the snowless record to next year.



#95
gimmesnow

Posted 10 March 2017 - 09:52 AM

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Thanks for the answers to my questions. I am learning a lot from these forums, I appreciate it.



#96
jaster220

Posted 10 March 2017 - 09:52 AM

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Not buying into anything till Sat pm. Looks like a nuisance event at best here

 

Models showing 6+ for mby. Cutting that to 4" for reality still means the first "non-nuisance" snowfall since Jan 31st.  IF it wants to dish, I'll shovel it, then move onto SPRING!


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#97
Niko

Posted 10 March 2017 - 10:02 AM

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Niko is looking better for decent snowfall...the key will be how quick it phases and pulls west.

Currently looking @6"+. Lets see how much inland the low tracks. If its an Appalachian runner, then, it will turn out to be a nice , plowable snowfall.



#98
Niko

Posted 10 March 2017 - 10:04 AM

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big cities on the coast could easily still see a rainer

I agree, they could go from accumulating snow to heavy rain and wind. All depends on the track.



#99
james1976

Posted 10 March 2017 - 10:09 AM

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We have a lot more to go than you do to get towards average. Sitting at 18.2" for the season. Would need to about double that.

Im at 22-23. Avg is 35. Hoping to cut the deficit in half.

#100
Tom

Posted 10 March 2017 - 10:18 AM

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12z GEFS showing some support for a stronger northern wave...few more ensemble members showing up in OH...

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_16.png

 

 

 

12z GEFS vs 00z today showing a stronger low in S IL vs a stronger low near the Carolinas...

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_14.png

 

vs...

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_16.png

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_19.png