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2017 Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread

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#1
Tom

Posted 17 March 2017 - 06:25 AM

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00z EURO showing a strong low tracking through W NE up towards the western Lakes.  This would be ideal for severe wx for a lot of posters in the Plains.

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_8.png


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#2
Tom

Posted 17 March 2017 - 06:27 AM

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Second half of March looks very wet where it has been very dry...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_60.png



#3
Tom

Posted 17 March 2017 - 06:49 AM

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The pattern is about to get real active as strong storms will begin to pound the west as the LRC's long term long wave trough sets up in the west for the remainder of March and into April.  The potential is there for a very active Spring severe wx season for the central CONUS.  What happens in the Summer is still up in the air as to how dry the pattern gets and where the "Ring of Fire" pattern aligns.  

 

Let's discuss the possible storm systems and pattern leading up to what will be a fun season of storm tracking.

 

CFSv2 still showing a very wet pattern in April...

 

usPrecMonInd1.gif

 

May...

 

usPrecMonInd2.gif

 

 

 

 



#4
NEJeremy

Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:00 AM

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I'm liking those blobs of heavy moisture over Nebraska in April and May. Could be a fun, but hopefully not too dangerous/destructive severe weather season.



#5
Tom

Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:03 AM

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I'm liking those blobs of heavy moisture over Nebraska in April and May. Could be a fun, but hopefully not too dangerous/destructive severe weather season.

This could be your year for tracking severe wx.  I like the chances of an active season for you guys out that way.


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#6
LNK_Weather

Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:07 AM

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Western KS may be the ones who cash in on Thursday. Only thing lacking for the tornado potential are SRH and EHI values all across the region.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#7
gabel23

Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:46 AM

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This would ease the drought worries!!! 

 

 

Attached Files


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#8
jaster220

Posted 17 March 2017 - 08:36 AM

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@ CFS maps

 

Glad to see "avg" precip for mby in SMI. Don't need/want tons of rain and not a huge severe wx fan. Y'all out west of me can have fun with that though.

 

Footnote on winter though. Amazing stat for Binghampton, NY Last winter they got only 32" total of snow (avg ~83") which was their all-time lowest total ever. After the Tue-wed bliz they're at almost 128" and just a few inches shy of their all-time snowiest winter. Talk about getting extremes!  :o 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#9
NEJeremy

Posted 17 March 2017 - 08:44 AM

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These are some beautiful hodographs! Still a long ways to go unfortunately....

Attached Files


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#10
Tom

Posted 18 March 2017 - 05:49 AM

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I like these met's maps for severe wx potential later next week...still plenty of time for change...if this map comes close to verifying, I can see a pattern already developing since our severe wx outbreak in Feb.

 

 

 

C7M-MdwXgAAmq8x.jpg


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#11
Tom

Posted 19 March 2017 - 04:52 AM

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Severe wx threat shifting west...

 

C7R8T88XQAAdBEf.jpg



#12
NEJeremy

Posted 19 March 2017 - 01:42 PM

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Severe wx threat shifting west...

C7R8T88XQAAdBEf.jpg


Going to have to keep pulling it west as the system is moving much slower now. Also not looking like much of a threat for Thursday anymore with limited moisture/CAPE. Friday might end up being the bigger day this way as now the Euro moves the lower further north/northeast vs previous runs

#13
Tom

Posted 20 March 2017 - 06:27 AM

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Pretty impressive nocturnal MCS overnight and likely will be a theme heading into this Spring/Summer season.  Almost seems like a summer time pattern but a couple months early???  Spring has officially sprung in an active way around here.  Big time heat ridge over the southern plains provided fuel for the fire last night.



#14
jaster220

Posted 20 March 2017 - 09:46 AM

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Pretty impressive nocturnal MCS overnight and likely will be a theme heading into this Spring/Summer season.  Almost seems like a summer time pattern but a couple months early???  Spring has officially sprung in an active way around here.  Big time heat ridge over the southern plains provided fuel for the fire last night.

 

LOL, I had the exact same thoughts that it reminded me of the ROF pattern just earlier in the year. 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#15
Tom

Posted 20 March 2017 - 10:23 AM

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Both GFS/EURO looking very similar for Fri...

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_5.png

 

gfs_mslp_uv850_us_17.png



#16
Tom

Posted 21 March 2017 - 07:04 AM

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Severe threat is shifting S/SE as we get closer to the Thu/Fri/Sat period.  Hopefully many areas get a good soaker that will allow the dry ground to soak in the much needed moisture.



#17
gimmesnow

Posted 21 March 2017 - 12:26 PM

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Hopefully that system goes away from SE wisconsin. The further S/SE we go the happier I'll be. I'll get one last weekend at my hill.



#18
Tom

Posted 23 March 2017 - 05:28 AM

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SPC has NE outlooked for severe wx...

 

activity_loop.gif

 

 

 

 

...Central Plains, southern High Plains...
Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop in
a regime of intense/deep mixing near the dryline and move
northeastward across the central/southern High Plains from late
afternoon into early evening. Activity will cross a narrow corridor
of relatively maximized MLCINH corresponding to strong heating,
steep low/middle-level lapse rates, increasing large-scale lift, and
a proximal surface moist axis characterized by dew points generally
50s F. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main concerns,
amidst vertical wind profiles suitable for both supercells and
organized multicellular structures. Some of this activity may
congeal into a broken band of convection this evening as the
overtaking Pacific front supplies additional low-level forcing;
however, weakening near-surface instability with time and eastward
extent will help to mitigate lingering severe threat therewith.

Farther north, a mesoscale reservoir of relatively maximized
low-level moisture -- characterized by dew points mid-upper 50s F on
11Z-12Z surface charts and 0.8-1.1-inch PW in GPS readings -- was
evident over northwestern OK and southern KS, and was sampled to
some extent by the 12Z DDC sounding. This area of moisture may
reach the vicinity of the developing frontal zone over
southern/central NE relatively unperturbed by strong mixing, while
underlying a regime of cold air aloft with 8.5-9 deg C/km midlevel
lapse rates this afternoon, amidst weakening MLCINH and
strengthening lift. That combination may support a pocket of
2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE amidst 50-kt effective-shear magnitude,
suitable for supercell character with any relatively
sustained/discrete storm(s) t
hat can develop and move into the
regime. While coverage of any such convection is in question,
precluding a greater unconditional probability line at this time,
isolated very large hail or even a tornado cannot be ruled out.


#19
Tom

Posted 23 March 2017 - 06:31 AM

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12z NAM 3km showing some cells popping in S/SE NE tomorrow...

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_35.png



#20
NEJeremy

Posted 23 March 2017 - 07:22 AM

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SPC has NE outlooked for severe wx...

 

activity_loop.gif

yeah could have been a great day if the dewpoints were higher!



#21
BrianJK

Posted 29 March 2017 - 04:41 AM

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3 people killed in car accident while chasing a tornado in TX. Just a reminder of the inherited risk that comes along with chasing.
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#22
Tom

Posted 29 March 2017 - 05:42 AM

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3 people killed in car accident while chasing a tornado in TX. Just a reminder of the inherited risk that comes along with chasing.

I read somewhere that it looks like someone blew past a stop sign which caused the fatal accident.



#23
Tom

Posted 29 March 2017 - 06:10 AM

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Here is an article about the tragic accident.  Kelley Williamson was just in MKE tracking the lake effect snow storm not long ago.

 

http://www.accuweath...ernoon/70001248



#24
Tom

Posted 29 March 2017 - 06:17 AM

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I remember watching him yesterday afternoon streaming live near Lubbock, TX tracking a Tornado warned storm.  Literally, this was prob right before the accident happened.  How fragile life can be.  I will remember hearing his gentle, southern accent on TWC.  God bless him, his friends who passed away, as well as his family.  


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#25
NEJeremy

Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:31 AM

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Some of you know I do quite a bit of chasing and honestly this is what scares me the most about chasing, not getting hurt or killed by a storm, but rather the driving and risks that come along with that especially when you can have so many people congested in one place. I feel like I have always given attention to intersections and stop signs, and when I have my chase partner with, he does a good job looking as well. Of course it only takes one time, and I'm sure I've missed something a time or two.

I remember shortly after the El Reno tornado having what happened to Tim Samaras and his partners on my mind all the time when chasing which slowly faded away. Now this will definitely be on my mind as well this season and hopefully going forward for future years. Condolences to everyone involved.


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#26
Money

Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:37 AM

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I read somewhere that it looks like someone blew past a stop sign which caused the fatal accident.


The driver blew through multiple stop signs through the chase at least from the stream I saw which is irresponsible

#27
Tom

Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:40 AM

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The driver blew through multiple stop signs through the chase at least from the stream I saw which is irresponsible

The video I saw on the TWC looked like his car was streaming live and they cut the next scene right before the accident.  So what your saying is making sense.



#28
NEJeremy

Posted 29 March 2017 - 11:55 AM

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The video I saw on the TWC looked like his car was streaming live and they cut the next scene right before the accident.  So what your saying is making sense.

Yeah his live stream from yesterday that lasted for a couple of hours showed him running at least 3-4 stop signs from what other people are saying. Definitely not responsible.



#29
BrianJK

Posted 29 March 2017 - 01:07 PM

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Yeah his live stream from yesterday that lasted for a couple of hours showed him running at least 3-4 stop signs from what other people are saying. Definitely not responsible.


I've never chased so don't know any better, but are you expected to obey the rules of the road when a tornado is in close proximity? Also don't know the situation that unfolded here - were they speeding towards or away from the storm?

#30
NEJeremy

Posted 29 March 2017 - 06:04 PM

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I've never chased so don't know any better, but are you expected to obey the rules of the road when a tornado is in close proximity? Also don't know the situation that unfolded here - were they speeding towards or away from the storm?

I think it is expected that everyone follows the rules at all times. Now if a tornado was racing at me at 60 mph, I might not follow all the rules. :D I know how to chase though and where to be so I have yet to have that happen to me.

Unfortunately, you see a lot of dumb people out chasing that don't follow the rules, whether that be speeding, stopping in the middle of the road, passing multiple cars at a time, etc. Out in the country, I think a fair amount of people choose not to always obey stop signs at seemingly desolate intersections because they assume no one will be coming from the other way.

From my understanding yesterday, these people weren't in any kind of danger where they were having to drive recklessly away from a storm. They were chasing it, presumably heading towards it or parallel to it or however you want to call it. It just sounds like the driver of one of the vehicles was either distracted or chose to ignore the stop sign.


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#31
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 April 2017 - 08:26 AM

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I like it. I'm good with normal temperatures this summer. Wouldn't mind below average though.

#32
Niko

Posted 01 April 2017 - 01:11 PM

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I am looking forward to damaging storms, although, not tornadic activity. Wouldn't want any damage done on my home. :D


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#33
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 April 2017 - 08:04 PM

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I am looking forward to damaging storms, although, not tornadic activity. Wouldn't want any damage done on my home. :D

We want tornadic activity. Just in places where it won't cause any property or personal damage. :rolleyes:


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#34
Tom

Posted 04 April 2017 - 10:43 AM

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Next Monday looks like there could be another large swath of severe wx across the eastern corn belt/Lakes region...

 

C8lnbkYXYAEymoz.jpg



#35
NebraskaWX

Posted 04 April 2017 - 12:14 PM

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Next Monday looks like there could be another large swath of severe wx across the eastern corn belt/Lakes region...

 

C8lnbkYXYAEymoz.jpg

Please god give us some severe weather out here. Even that is managing to go around us right now, I would KILL for a good storm to roll through this weekend!


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#36
LNK_Weather

Posted 04 April 2017 - 09:58 PM

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Can't wait until NAM comes into range with this severe wx threat. It'll help to let us know of any location biases the GFS may potentially be having. Euro is a nudge more West with the better severe threats, which bleeds into my forecast territory. Not seeing the same long-lasting tornado threat I saw with yesterday's model runs, but this does have the potential to be an outbreak of general severe weather. The question, aside from location is a) Can a pretty strong cap be broken and b ) Will EHI values trend more upward, as that and LL Lapse Rates seem to be the greatest weaknesses right now.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#37
FarmerRick

Posted 05 April 2017 - 04:11 AM

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We want tornadic activity. Just in places where it won't cause any property or personal damage. :rolleyes:

 

Do you consider crops to be property?  I do.  Most people's livelihood around here... 



#38
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 April 2017 - 08:15 AM

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Do you consider crops to be property?  I do.  Most people's livelihood around here... 

The growing season hasn't technically started yet. But yes, they are property. 


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#39
NebraskaWX

Posted 05 April 2017 - 08:31 AM

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Can't wait until NAM comes into range with this severe wx threat. It'll help to let us know of any location biases the GFS may potentially be having. Euro is a nudge more West with the better severe threats, which bleeds into my forecast territory. Not seeing the same long-lasting tornado threat I saw with yesterday's model runs, but this does have the potential to be an outbreak of general severe weather. The question, aside from location is a) Can a pretty strong cap be broken and b ) Will EHI values trend more upward, as that and LL Lapse Rates seem to be the greatest weaknesses right now.

 

I'm hoping the tornado threat comes back. No I don't want destruction either but those type of outbreaks are always accustomed by more intense severe threats as well. Hope the EURO is on to something, I'm also really anxious to see the NAM.

 

Also, it's supposed to be 76 and sunny on Saturday!! Can't wait to lay out and grill all day :D #daydrinking


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#40
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 April 2017 - 08:43 AM

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GFS has been fairly consistent in placing the biggest threat of severe weather around NW Missouri.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#41
NebraskaWX

Posted 05 April 2017 - 09:02 AM

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GFS has been fairly consistent in placing the biggest threat of severe weather around NW Missouri.

 

True. I think severe weather is almost as hard to track as winter storms though, like if you look down south right now, the moderate risk yesterday doesn't line up as strongly as where the now High risk is issued. I think we could easily see a shift, especially give the warm gulf moisture ahead pushing this thing further north and west than expected.


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#42
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 April 2017 - 10:09 AM

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True. I think severe weather is almost as hard to track as winter storms though, like if you look down south right now, the moderate risk yesterday doesn't line up as strongly as where the now High risk is issued. I think we could easily see a shift, especially give the warm gulf moisture ahead pushing this thing further north and west than expected.

If we get severe weather on Sunday it had better wait until I get back from Iowa!


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#43
jaster220

Posted 05 April 2017 - 11:45 AM

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I'm hoping the tornado threat comes back. No I don't want destruction either but those type of outbreaks are always accustomed by more intense severe threats as well. Hope the EURO is on to something, I'm also really anxious to see the NAM.

 

Also, it's supposed to be 76 and sunny on Saturday!! Can't wait to lay out and grill all day :D #daydrinking

 

What's 70's like again? I hardly remember February.. :rolleyes:


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#44
NEJeremy

Posted 05 April 2017 - 12:09 PM

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going off of the GFS(that's the only detailed maps I can see), the biggest issue for tornado probs seems to be directional shear in the lowest levels. there's good speed shear but not a lot of turning between the surface to 850mb level with the surface winds a bit west of south. Would love to see the surface winds backed more. Storms look to be somewhat isolated initially so that may help, but I'm not seeing a big tornado day out of this system as is. SPC only mentioned wind and hail with it's outlook too.



#45
NebraskaWX

Posted 05 April 2017 - 01:40 PM

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going off of the GFS(that's the only detailed maps I can see), the biggest issue for tornado probs seems to be directional shear in the lowest levels. there's good speed shear but not a lot of turning between the surface to 850mb level with the surface winds a bit west of south. Would love to see the surface winds backed more. Storms look to be somewhat isolated initially so that may help, but I'm not seeing a big tornado day out of this system as is. SPC only mentioned wind and hail with it's outlook too.

that can change though I suppose. The NWS just decreased our chances to "slight chance of showers", awesome. Hope they fall flat on their face as they normally do, I'm getting sick of them making Fox News look like a gay pride parade with how conservative they are.

 

EDIT: Also, has anyone else noticed that the SPC has been pretty generous with their High Risk issuances this year? I get there have been strong tornadoes, but so far today they've been outside the high risk area.
 


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#46
NEJeremy

Posted 05 April 2017 - 02:38 PM

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that can change though I suppose. The NWS just decreased our chances to "slight chance of showers", awesome. Hope they fall flat on their face as they normally do, I'm getting sick of them making Fox News look like a gay pride parade with how conservative they are.

 

EDIT: Also, has anyone else noticed that the SPC has been pretty generous with their High Risk issuances this year? I get there have been strong tornadoes, but so far today they've been outside the high risk area.
 

Oh for sure it can still change. The GFS has been pretty consistent though. However, the Euro's surface low placement is much different than the GFS. It is slower than the GFS and has the surface low over Nebraska vs the GFS being further northeast. A lot of times you can get surface winds more backed right near the low, so maybe something will change. The funny thing is the Omaha NWS AFD from this afternoon said it was the Euro that is the fastest vs the GFS. The GFS would put the storm chances basically in Iowa and the Euro would still give us a shot over Nebraska. At any rate.....

 

It is kind of crazy to see the number of high risks so far. The one earlier this week sure didn't pan out and the one today certainly hasn't verified so far.



#47
NEJeremy

Posted 05 April 2017 - 05:45 PM

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And as if almost on queue, the 18Z GFS looks pretty different and a lot more like the Euro. SLP is down in eastern Nebraska at 0Z next Monday. Still would have storms forming just east of here.. Clicked on some soundings and they look a little better too for tornado potential.



#48
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 April 2017 - 06:20 PM

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that can change though I suppose. The NWS just decreased our chances to "slight chance of showers", awesome. Hope they fall flat on their face as they normally do, I'm getting sick of them making Fox News look like a gay pride parade with how conservative they are.

 

EDIT: Also, has anyone else noticed that the SPC has been pretty generous with their High Risk issuances this year? I get there have been strong tornadoes, but so far today they've been outside the high risk area.
 

They went from issuing way too few high risks to handing them out like candy. It'd be like issuing a tornado emergency for every tornado that touched down.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#49
NEJeremy

Posted 06 April 2017 - 01:34 PM

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we're now within range of the NAM for this Sunday. It's a bit more promising than what the GFS shows. SBCAPE values are higher(>3k) and winds seem to be a bit more southerly vs SSW or SW on the GFS. The cap is very strong on the NAM though and doesn't really erode until between 21Z-0Z, so cells are very isolated on the NAM. Still looks like formation along or east of the river. For me this is too close of a set up to not go out for a chase. Maybe I'll get lucky and get a nice lone supercell vs a big line!



#50
NebraskaWX

Posted 07 April 2017 - 06:32 AM

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we're now within range of the NAM for this Sunday. It's a bit more promising than what the GFS shows. SBCAPE values are higher(>3k) and winds seem to be a bit more southerly vs SSW or SW on the GFS. The cap is very strong on the NAM though and doesn't really erode until between 21Z-0Z, so cells are very isolated on the NAM. Still looks like formation along or east of the river. For me this is too close of a set up to not go out for a chase. Maybe I'll get lucky and get a nice lone supercell vs a big line!

 

SPC isn't having any of that though. Sticking to their guns on the main action being in IA/MO/W KS. Hope there are some changes the next few days.


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50