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2017 Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread

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#451
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 06:52 AM

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Latest HRRR run pretty much agrees with the NAM...

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_12.png

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_15.png

 

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_17.png

 

 

hrrr_apcpn_ncus_18.png



#452
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 07:48 AM

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HRRR picking up on a secondary band that crushes CR area...

 

hrrr_apcpn_ncus_18.png



#453
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 08:27 AM

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Flooding potential is not looking good for N IL...

 

20245614_10155440197241760_5185937152301



#454
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 10:35 AM

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As was the case with last weeks event, models are shifting south with the corridor of strong/training storms and N IL is in the hot zone once again.

 

 

DFRePwfXoAAndVT.jpg

 

 

 

Based on what I'm seeing, this will be an interesting evening for a lot of IA/IL posters...WI posters borderline....

 

Run after run, HRRR keeps showing 2-4"+ over N IL...

 

hrrr_apcpn_ncus_18.png



#455
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 10:38 AM

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IA folks about to get a either a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado watch soon...

 

mcd1380.gif



#456
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 10:56 AM

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Courtesy from Skilling:  Does this heavy rain corridor look familiar???  That would suck for the DP and Fox River's...

 

 

 

20229358_10155440892451760_1328755961759



#457
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 10:57 AM

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@ Jaster/WestJim, you guys are not out of the woods!



#458
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 July 2017 - 11:33 AM

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Not warned at this point, but that cell headed for Rockford looks interesting. Gonna head right down I-90.

#459
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 12:15 PM

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Not warned at this point, but that cell headed for Rockford looks interesting. Gonna head right down I-90.


Been reading its SWS's and it has been producing torrential rains. I got a bad feeling he rivers are going to all be screwed in N IL. Another major flooding event?

#460
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 July 2017 - 12:25 PM

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Been reading its SWS's and it has been producing torrential rains. I got a bad feeling he rivers are going to all be screwed in N IL. Another major flooding event?


My wife and son just landed at O'Hare. Glad they got in before the storms hit this evening. Northern LOT gonna get pounded with flooding rains again it appears.

That warned cell in ND at 70k ft?? Skies finally clearing here. Unfortunately too little too late. The clouds from this morning appear to have ruined another great severe setup.
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#461
Niko

Posted 21 July 2017 - 01:19 PM

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Good shot of Thunderstorms late tonight into tomorrow morning in SEMI. Hopefully, we get drenched. :D



#462
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 01:52 PM

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Wow...Tennis ball sized hail...

 

 

 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il
448 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

ILC031-043-212230-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0134.000000T0000Z-170721T2230Z/
DuPage IL-Cook IL-
448 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE AND NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTIES...

At 448 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Schaumburg,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind
damage to roofs, siding, and trees.


#463
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 02:00 PM

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Thunderstorm Watches hoisted for all of N IL and most of E IA...

 

Tornado warned cell popped up just south of CR near Iowa City...I think we have a member near there...

 

 

 

Tornado Warning Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
459 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

IAC103-212245-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-170721T2245Z/
Johnson IA-
459 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
JOHNSON COUNTY...

At 459 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Kalona, or 11 miles southwest of Iowa City, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.


#464
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 02:02 PM

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Western burbs by my place getting crushed by a severe cell producing 1.25" hail...


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#465
Hawkeye

Posted 21 July 2017 - 02:32 PM

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I'm not really liking the trend.  The southern Wisconsin and eastern Iowa convection should link up and blast northern Illinois over the next several hours.  The HRRR shows this well.  From CR west, there's still nothing popping.  The HRRR now delays development back to central Iowa until later, with just a narrow tail of convection passing over a lucky few.  The main show should be east.


season snowfall: 17.9"

 

'15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"      '11-12: 21.8"      '10-11: 35.8"      '09-10: 45.8"      '08-09: 47.5"      '07-08: 61.9"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#466
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 July 2017 - 02:44 PM

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Hoping the storms that fired in ND and N MN hold together as they pivot SE. The atmosphere seems to be recovering here in the Twin Cities as the skies cleared around 3:30. This may be a sneaky MCS developing that the models missed due to the earlier convection. Long shot....but we'll see.

#467
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 02:47 PM

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Major flooding and wind damage from that cell...

 

DFSvl0ZVwAEm4i5.jpg

 

 

DFSufbpUIAIzXMC.jpg



#468
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 02:50 PM

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Initial reports even suggesting a microburst hit the area...

 

 

DFSqP3hWsAAzbhy.jpg

 

 

 

DFSqP3fXUAAyM_j.jpg



#469
Niko

Posted 21 July 2017 - 02:51 PM

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And....here is my thunderstorm potential from NOAA:

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
353 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-221030-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
353 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for locations along and north of M-59.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms late tonight. These storms are not
expected to be severe, but will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall.  Storm motion will be east at 30 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a continued chance of thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday
with the best chance Saturday morning. The storms on Saturday are not
expected to be severe. An isolated marginal severe storm is possible
on Sunday as a cold front tracks through.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.


#470
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 July 2017 - 02:52 PM

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Holy wow, Tom. Thanks for sharing. The wife is in Downer's Grove and she says nothing is happening there....yet.

#471
BrianJK

Posted 21 July 2017 - 03:26 PM

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Holy wow, Tom. Thanks for sharing. The wife is in Downer's Grove and she says nothing is happening there....yet.

 

That nasty cell just barely brushed my area.  The Downers area and anywhere south probably got a few drops at best.  Radar is pretty well lit to the west, so this evening may be quite active.



#472
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 03:34 PM

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That nasty cell just barely brushed my area. The Downers area and anywhere south probably got a few drops at best. Radar is pretty well lit to the west, so this evening may be quite active.


Yup, training signature evident in radar. Someone will get 6"+ total by tomorrow am

#473
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 04:29 PM

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While you guys out in the Midwest are getting a taste of severe wx, out here, albeit it rather minimal comparatively speaking, I just experienced a storm that blossomed out of nowhere right above my place and had a mini micro-burst with some dust out ahead of it.  It literally formed right overhead.  I've never had that experience before out here.


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#474
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 July 2017 - 04:51 PM

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Severe thunderstorm watch now extended south to the very northern outskirts of the TC metro. That line is holding its own. Nothing better than a midnight squall line. It's expected to weaken but we'll see. Bring it.
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#475
BrianJK

Posted 21 July 2017 - 04:57 PM

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Its wild to see the multiplie individual cells within the cluster all doing their own thing.
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#476
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 05:15 PM

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Not good....not good...hearing radar estimates out west of 2-3"/hr...

 

DFTTLvCXsAQ4BU1.jpg



#477
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 05:22 PM

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Significant wind damage all across the western burbs and lots of hail reports from that super cell...

 

20228597_10154729451802411_9156022713955

 

 

 

DFSwyAQXcAAng_e.jpg



#478
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 July 2017 - 05:32 PM

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LOT radar looks like a Christmas tree right now with those colors. Daymn! Good luck and be safe all.
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#479
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 05:43 PM

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HRRR continues to pummel N IL with a secondary plume of moisture after 1:00am...6"+ totals are becoming more likely...

#480
Tom

Posted 21 July 2017 - 05:56 PM

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IA folks not out of the picture yet...latest SPC Mesoscale discussion talking about some possible storm development later tonight...

 

 

 

Farther west across IA, there is some concern that a strengthening
southwesterly LLJ will initiate new convection atop reinforced
outflow late this evening. If this occurs large hail could become a
concern with elevated storms across this region.


#481
Hawkeye

Posted 21 July 2017 - 06:37 PM

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Northeast Iowa convection blowing up again.


season snowfall: 17.9"

 

'15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"      '11-12: 21.8"      '10-11: 35.8"      '09-10: 45.8"      '08-09: 47.5"      '07-08: 61.9"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#482
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 July 2017 - 06:39 PM

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N IL is in for a long night with that new stuff around Dubuque and Decorah, IA. Never-ending training. The nighttime LLJ doing work.

#483
Hawkeye

Posted 21 July 2017 - 07:11 PM

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It appears the hw30 corridor through Iowa won't be seeing anything as the LLJ is aimed at ne IA, so there's no reason for me stay up late again.  Good luck to those of you in northern Illinois.


season snowfall: 17.9"

 

'15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"      '11-12: 21.8"      '10-11: 35.8"      '09-10: 45.8"      '08-09: 47.5"      '07-08: 61.9"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#484
Tom

Posted 22 July 2017 - 05:57 AM

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NE IL lucked out on the heavy rains, thankfully, but folks in NW IL/NE IL not so much.  Models did a pretty good job handling this convective set up.  Turns out that secondary heavy band was a bit more west into IA.

 

DFV_zuAW0AAQqBl.jpg

 

 

 

DFV_zgnWAAIBtoL.jpg



#485
Hawkeye

Posted 22 July 2017 - 06:10 AM

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I got scraped by the west edge of the MCS overnight, picked up 0.43".  The row of counties north of Waterloo-Dubuque has been getting dumped on all summer.


season snowfall: 17.9"

 

'15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"      '11-12: 21.8"      '10-11: 35.8"      '09-10: 45.8"      '08-09: 47.5"      '07-08: 61.9"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#486
Tom

Posted 22 July 2017 - 06:16 AM

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I think James' area got hit hard or just to his north.

 

I got scraped by the west edge of the MCS overnight, picked up 0.43".  The row of counties north of Waterloo-Dubuque has been getting dumped on all summer.

The pattern just doesn't want to quit.  If you look at next weeks setup, it could be another repeat.  Hope it trends in your favor and to those a little south and west.



#487
Tom

Posted 22 July 2017 - 06:30 AM

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I think next week things will trend farther south compared to where the pattern has been of late, esp with the hemispheric pattern becoming a bit more amplified.  -NAO is forecast to develop as well.  Beneficial rains forecast from the Euro High Rez...

 

DFV6qSGU0AMN92z.jpg



#488
Tom

Posted 22 July 2017 - 06:32 AM

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Impressive rains in NE IA...that neighborhood is probably swimming...that's gotta be close to James' back yard...

 

DFVhAtmXUAAF6B7.jpg



#489
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 06:35 AM

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LOT has a nice description of the super cell that hit the NW burbs of Chi last Friday...

 

DFaq78_XoAEbcVr.jpg



#490
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 06:48 AM

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Anyone know anybody in NE IA where these rains fell???

 

DFaLLKGXUAAqq9P.jpg



#491
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 01:08 PM

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A line of severe storms has formed quickly over N IL and producing 1.25" hail near McHenry county.  It's dropping SSE and likely target the same areas hit from last Friday!

 

DFcpQQwXgAAO1IM.jpg



#492
BrianJK

Posted Yesterday, 01:32 PM

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A line of severe storms has formed quickly over N IL and producing 1.25" hail near McHenry county.  It's dropping SSE and likely target the same areas hit from last Friday!

 

DFcpQQwXgAAO1IM.jpg

 

Yup, really getting dark outside.  Radar shows these things knocking on my doorstep.  Luckily the hail looks to be diminishing somewhat.



#493
BrianJK

Posted Yesterday, 01:50 PM

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Scratch that - large hail cell appears to be over carol stream right now

#494
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 02:59 PM

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Scratch that - large hail cell appears to be over carol stream right now


Did you get hit hard?

#495
BrianJK

Posted Yesterday, 04:02 PM

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Did you get hit hard?


Just some wind and a decent downpour. A friend of mine in Wheaton got it pretty good with nickel hail and some stronger winds.

#496
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 06:15 PM

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What a great Monsoon season it has been out here. I'm about to get hit by another strong line of storms. We have been getting rain out here in the valley it seems like every single day since about 10 days ago. Who woulda thought?

I feel like I'm in the tropics or something. Warm, humid days with sunshine in the morning/afternoon and then evening/nighttime storms. Wash/rinse...repeat. Just great!

Wish I can show you what I'm looking at now with the wind blowing the palm trees sideways and real dark clouds behind them. Occasional big flashes of lighting and loud cracks of thunder.

#497
shysoks

Posted Today, 02:16 AM

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Anyone know anybody in NE IA where these rains fell???

 

DFaLLKGXUAAqq9P.jpg

I live in southern Clayton county where we had 6 to 7 inches Friday night, but what makes it worse is that we had over 11 inches last Tuesday. The ground is so saturated that any little bit of rain just runs off. There are at least four roads that I can think of in the area (maybe more) that will be closed indefinitely due to bridges being taken out, culvert blown out of the roads or the road falling into the river that runs next to it. It is very hilly up here, so the water just flows down the hills and takes everything out. So many homes, businesses and roads destroyed; so sad.


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#498
OKwx2k4

Posted Today, 03:10 AM

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I live in southern Clayton county where we had 6 to 7 inches Friday night, but what makes it worse is that we had over 11 inches last Tuesday. The ground is so saturated that any little bit of rain just runs off. There are at least four roads that I can think of in the area (maybe more) that will be closed indefinitely due to bridges being taken out, culvert blown out of the roads or the road falling into the river that runs next to it. It is very hilly up here, so the water just flows down the hills and takes everything out. So many homes, businesses and roads destroyed; so sad.


After 2 years in a row of "100 year floods" here in the Ozarks Hills and knowing what water can do in hilly areas, I have a pretty fresh imagination of some of the damage there. Hope all gets better and you all get to dry out a bit.

#499
Tom

Posted Today, 06:10 AM

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I live in southern Clayton county where we had 6 to 7 inches Friday night, but what makes it worse is that we had over 11 inches last Tuesday. The ground is so saturated that any little bit of rain just runs off. There are at least four roads that I can think of in the area (maybe more) that will be closed indefinitely due to bridges being taken out, culvert blown out of the roads or the road falling into the river that runs next to it. It is very hilly up here, so the water just flows down the hills and takes everything out. So many homes, businesses and roads destroyed; so sad.

Welcome to the board!  I'm sorry to hear about the devastation that the flooding brought to your region.  It sorta reminds me of the valley's/hills we have where I'm currently situated in Fountain Hills, AZ.  As I write this, we just had a tropical downpour and a Flash Flood Advisory was issued about an hour ago.  It's wild to see how much power water has.  

 

Since going to bed after last night's storms, there has been light rain falling all night long into the morning where it really has picked up here.  I have never experienced this much rain in the desert, esp in the month of July.

 

Looking at the radar, there is a plume of moisture heading up from the eastern valley near Mesa/Gilbert heading right towards me.  This is wild for the desert SW.



#500
Tom

Posted Today, 06:38 AM

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For the most part, IA is looking good for more rainfall to those areas that need it most in C/S IA...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_18.png

 

 

Wed/Thu  period looking interesting...

 

day3otlk_0730.gif?1500906990978

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_12.png

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_13.png

 

 

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