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2017 Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread

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#551
NEJeremy

Posted 18 September 2017 - 08:36 AM

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Looking forward to chasing tomorrow in SoDak. Haven't been out since July. Hopefully storms don't line out too quickly, but still with the amount of low level shear being forecasted could get some spin ups within the line. Here's a forecast of helicity tracks and forecast reflectivity from one of the short term models. I like how at least this one keeps things somewhat separate for the cells.

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#552
Niko

Posted 18 September 2017 - 08:54 AM

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Looking forward to chasing tomorrow in SoDak. Haven't been out since July. Hopefully storms don't line out too quickly, but still with the amount of low level shear being forecasted could get some spin ups within the line. Here's a forecast of helicity tracks and forecast reflectivity from one of the short term models. I like how at least this one keeps things somewhat separate for the cells.

Good luck out there. :D


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#553
Tom

Posted 18 September 2017 - 09:03 AM

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Looking forward to chasing tomorrow in SoDak. Haven't been out since July. Hopefully storms don't line out too quickly, but still with the amount of low level shear being forecasted could get some spin ups within the line. Here's a forecast of helicity tracks and forecast reflectivity from one of the short term models. I like how at least this one keeps things somewhat separate for the cells.

 

Good luck out there. :D

Agree!  Stay safe as always...


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#554
NEJeremy

Posted 18 September 2017 - 11:44 AM

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SPC has added a hatched area with mention of big hail and the threat of tornadoes. Overall, stronger wording for sure for tomorrow. I'm heading to the Huron area first and should be there by 130-2p. 



#555
NEJeremy

Posted 21 September 2017 - 09:00 AM

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What a disappointing chase day on Tuesday! SPC had added 10% tornado area with the overnight update so I was pretty stoked for Tuesday when I woke up. We left at 930 and headed north up I-29. Unfortunately, the low clouds and even a bit of fog was very slow to burn off and temps stayed only near 70 all the way into the early afternoon. I was kind of expecting the SPC to lower the risk given the cloud cover, but eventually there were some breaks and temps made it into the upper 70s to low 80s. The models and SPC said storms should form by 4 and mainly along the strong cold front. There was an elevated complex of storms that moved into NoDak earlier in the afternoon, but we didn't want to go after those. Finally a tornado watch was issued at 330 and we waited west of Aberdeen. And waited. And waited.

At about 630 there was finally initiation south of our position moving right towards us. The storms became severe warned for some hail and wind, but now it was already getting close to dark. We actually called off the chase at about 730 as we had almost a 6 hour drive ahead of us. A broken line of storms continued to form further south and eventually one of them did produce an EF-1 tornado about 45 miles south of us right at sunset. If this was June, than we would have still been chasing and might have had a chance to see something with dark not being until 930.

No pictures or video to even take home from the chase! Hopefully, there will be another chance or 2 before winter sets in. Tomorrow looks ok in eastern SoDak/ western Minnesota, but I am tied up so no go for me tomorrow.


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#556
Niko

Posted 22 September 2017 - 05:48 AM

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What a disappointing chase day on Tuesday! SPC had added 10% tornado area with the overnight update so I was pretty stoked for Tuesday when I woke up. We left at 930 and headed north up I-29. Unfortunately, the low clouds and even a bit of fog was very slow to burn off and temps stayed only near 70 all the way into the early afternoon. I was kind of expecting the SPC to lower the risk given the cloud cover, but eventually there were some breaks and temps made it into the upper 70s to low 80s. The models and SPC said storms should form by 4 and mainly along the strong cold front. There was an elevated complex of storms that moved into NoDak earlier in the afternoon, but we didn't want to go after those. Finally a tornado watch was issued at 330 and we waited west of Aberdeen. And waited. And waited.

At about 630 there was finally initiation south of our position moving right towards us. The storms became severe warned for some hail and wind, but now it was already getting close to dark. We actually called off the chase at about 730 as we had almost a 6 hour drive ahead of us. A broken line of storms continued to form further south and eventually one of them did produce an EF-1 tornado about 45 miles south of us right at sunset. If this was June, than we would have still been chasing and might have had a chance to see something with dark not being until 930.

No pictures or video to even take home from the chase! Hopefully, there will be another chance or 2 before winter sets in. Tomorrow looks ok in eastern SoDak/ western Minnesota, but I am tied up so no go for me tomorrow.

Get em' next time!! :D


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