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2017 Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread

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#51
NEJeremy

Posted 07 April 2017 - 07:08 AM

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Maybe not surpisingly, the NAM vs the GFS are way different in what they show on Sunday. The GFS is much quicker with a lead low taking it up into Minnesota by 0Z Monday vs the NAM is keeping the surface low over southeast Nebraska. The 3kNAM is now in range and it shows mid 60s dewpoints vs the GFS having low 60s and the SPC is talking mid to upper 50s. I'm guessing the NAM is overdoing things as winds are just starting to turn onshore down by the Gulf and dewpoints are in the 40s all the way down there. I guess we do have 2 1/2 days yet for moisture return and it has been very wet everywhere so evapotranspiration will hopefully help. The 3k NAM develops a supercell back near York/Grand Island and eventually forms a small line as it moves east. Has good helicity track with it as well. 

Attached Files


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#52
NebraskaWX

Posted 07 April 2017 - 07:30 AM

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I know this doesn't do much justice, but the NAM is generally better with severe weather/spring storms than the GFS. This is just based on past experiences, generally the NAM is more accurate handling where the bulk of storms end up firing.


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#53
Tom

Posted 07 April 2017 - 07:44 AM

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I know this doesn't do much justice, but the NAM is generally better with severe weather/spring storms than the GFS. This is just based on past experiences, generally the NAM is more accurate handling where the bulk of storms end up firing.

I have to agree.  The higher rez NAM does a much better job handling the convection as you get closer to 24-48 hours out.  I've seen it did a good job with the previous few events.


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#54
Tom

Posted 07 April 2017 - 09:01 AM

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12z GFS is suggesting...instead of a drought, go find a boat...would not be good for #plantingseason

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_52.png


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#55
NebraskaWX

Posted 07 April 2017 - 01:27 PM

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Bring it. I'll take all the weather I can, this is the best time of year! Warm during the day, dips into the 40's at night so you can crack open the window. Love it.

 

 

Thinking the SPC will have to include OMA/LNK in a risk here soon. Though the NAM isn't robust with the storms, it does show some individual supercells forming in Eastern Nebraska on Sunday.


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#56
NEJeremy

Posted 09 April 2017 - 06:53 AM

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today=BUST. perfect surface low track, 3k CAPE, 40-50 kts of shear? Sounds great. Cap bust in April? Of course....  What a joke



#57
Tom

Posted 09 April 2017 - 06:01 PM

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Spring/Summer Photo Contest Thread...

 

http://theweatherfor...-photo-contest/



#58
Tom

Posted 10 April 2017 - 07:04 AM

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The Midwest/Lakes are poised to get some storms today...

 

C9DuxqPV0AAfq28.jpg

 

 

 

activity_loop.gif

 

 

 

 

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_10.png

 

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_12.png



#59
Tom

Posted 10 April 2017 - 10:57 AM

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Boom!  Just as a post the image below...they pull the trigger...Severe T-Storm Watches hoisted for IL/SE WI/NW IN/SW MI...

 

 

 

C9EQT2MWsAESRNY.jpg



#60
gabel23

Posted 10 April 2017 - 11:09 AM

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Boom!  Just as a post the image below...they pull the trigger...Severe T-Storm Watches hoisted for IL/SE WI/NW IN/SW MI...

 

 

 

C9EQT2MWsAESRNY.jpg

 

 

Crap the cubs/dodgers game better not get rained out!! They are raising up their world series banner tonight!!! 


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#61
Tom

Posted 10 April 2017 - 11:16 AM

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Crap the cubs/dodgers game better not get rained out!! They are raising up their world series banner tonight!!!


Storms should gone by then...the next 4-5 hours is the time table...

#62
jaster220

Posted 10 April 2017 - 11:34 AM

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Got 2nd batch of rumbling T-showers here in St. Joe today. Nothing too dramatic. Guessing the chill of the lake (relatively so) will damper anything until it's inland and recovered a bit. Now in Marshall, we could do better but I don't want more rain so pulling for a miss tbh (ducks and covers)


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#63
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 April 2017 - 07:33 AM

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I'm liking our potential for at least a severe storm or two in SE Nebraska this afternoon. HRRR showing what looks like a high-precip supercell, sadly, that is the only model to show that


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#64
NebraskaWX

Posted 12 April 2017 - 07:45 AM

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I'm liking our potential for at least a severe storm or two in SE Nebraska this afternoon. HRRR showing what looks like a high-precip supercell, sadly, that is the only model to show that

 

 

I'm liking our potential for at least a severe storm or two in SE Nebraska this afternoon. HRRR showing what looks like a high-precip supercell, sadly, that is the only model to show that

Yeah it doesn't look all that great on radar right now. I don't know, it could be possible. I'm sure the Lincoln dome will work it's magic here shortly though.


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#65
NEJeremy

Posted 12 April 2017 - 09:23 AM

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Yeah it doesn't look all that great on radar right now. I don't know, it could be possible. I'm sure the Lincoln dome will work it's magic here shortly though.

I've been watching this too. If all goes to plan, the current rain should continue to move through and then the HRRR shows a cell or two developing on the southwest flank of the precip between 4-6p. SPC is talking about a possible upgrade. If it looks decent, I am going to head out.



#66
NEJeremy

Posted 13 April 2017 - 07:07 AM

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long ways out yet, but next week there could be a big system moving across the Plains. I was looking at some soundings/hodographs and found this one for next Wednesday in north central Oklahoma. Holy cow(as the great Harry Caray once said)!

Attached Files



#67
NebraskaWX

Posted 13 April 2017 - 08:22 AM

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long ways out yet, but next week there could be a big system moving across the Plains. I was looking at some soundings/hodographs and found this one for next Wednesday in north central Oklahoma. Holy cow(as the great Harry Caray once said)!

Dang son. OkWx24 I see you. Maybe the SPC will issue a proper high risk for once?! :P

 

Hoping we get some more rain here tonight, things are really greening up and I LOVE it. Think we just might get some severe weather around here next week, but it looks to primarily stay south for now. It is only April, so I can't expect much, although April has been a good month for us recently. Nothing compared to May and June though-- think things are REALLY going to ramp up here later this month.


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#68
jaster220

Posted 13 April 2017 - 10:00 AM

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Yeah it doesn't look all that great on radar right now. I don't know, it could be possible. I'm sure the Lincoln dome will work it's magic here shortly though.

 

Can I borrow the Lincoln Dome? Must be over 400% normal rainfall in mby. Really ready to lose this pattern tbh. I think last May was pretty lush as well, then it was like somebody turned the spigot off and we were suddenly in a mini-drought in June/July. Oh how I miss a steady pattern. Extremes are great if you're are on the winning end of a winter pattern. Otherwise, nasso much.

 

The Kzoo River flows through Marshall near my house. September '08 was by far the worst of (3) events that forced water into my basement. So glad It's not that bad this time.

 


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#69
NebraskaWX

Posted 13 April 2017 - 11:52 AM

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Can I borrow the Lincoln Dome? Must be over 400% normal rainfall in mby. Really ready to lose this pattern tbh. I think last May was pretty lush as well, then it was like somebody turned the spigot off and we were suddenly in a mini-drought in June/July. Oh how I miss a steady pattern. Extremes are great if you're are on the winning end of a winter pattern. Otherwise, nasso much.

 

The Kzoo River flows through Marshall near my house. September '08 was by far the worst of (3) events that forced water into my basement. So glad It's not that bad this time.

 

attachicon.gif20170413 GRR Flood Data.PNG

 

 

Anytime man! Except you'd be hard pressed to get me to give you the 76 and sun we have right now :D holy cow is it amazing.


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#70
Tom

Posted 17 April 2017 - 06:42 AM

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Saw this post in Gary Lezak's blog today where he believes the severe wx hot spot will be...it has been somewhat accurate...maybe nudge that a bit farther west/north.

 

 



#71
NebraskaWX

Posted 17 April 2017 - 07:19 AM

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Hi-Res NAM loving Nebraska for the next 2 days. Solid squall line moves through the Central and Eastern parts of the State tomorrow, then shows a solid outbreak on Wednesday. Would be surprised if the SPC doesn't upgrade us to a slight here soon, unless my timing is off. Here's what it's showing right now though:

 

 

Attached Files


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#72
NEJeremy

Posted 17 April 2017 - 12:31 PM

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Hi-Res NAM loving Nebraska for the next 2 days. Solid squall line moves through the Central and Eastern parts of the State tomorrow, then shows a solid outbreak on Wednesday. Would be surprised if the SPC doesn't upgrade us to a slight here soon, unless my timing is off. Here's what it's showing right now though:

It looks like a decent chance of elevated hailers Tuesday night in Nebraska for sure. The hi-res NAM above definitely shows that. Wednesday, I'm a little pessimistic for severe weather around Nebraska. It all of course depends on timing and path of surface low, but the surface low seems like it's going to be "strung out" and therefore the surface winds aren't backed real nicely until you get out a ways ahead of the low and along the warm front. Best tornado chances will be east of Nebraska I think, but may get some hail/wind in eastern Nebraska Wednesday afternoon. I'm planning on chasing Wednesday over in Iowa east of Des Moines, especially after missing the tornado 45 miles south of me on Saturday(thanks Easter weekend, lol).



#73
NebraskaWX

Posted 17 April 2017 - 02:04 PM

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It looks like a decent chance of elevated hailers Tuesday night in Nebraska for sure. The hi-res NAM above definitely shows that. Wednesday, I'm a little pessimistic for severe weather around Nebraska. It all of course depends on timing and path of surface low, but the surface low seems like it's going to be "strung out" and therefore the surface winds aren't backed real nicely until you get out a ways ahead of the low and along the warm front. Best tornado chances will be east of Nebraska I think, but may get some hail/wind in eastern Nebraska Wednesday afternoon. I'm planning on chasing Wednesday over in Iowa east of Des Moines, especially after missing the tornado 45 miles south of me on Saturday(thanks Easter weekend, lol).

Yeah that's a good point. The NAM is all about it. 18z has a nice line of storms fire along the rising warm front, only to come in with a second round right after from the cold front. Could be a good chance for some severe weather here, though tornadoes do look like they're going to be isolated right now.

 

You missed out man! Dunbar was the spot to be. I went to Blair and caught that monster that dropped tennis ball sized hail. The lightning was amazing with it. Gotta love when slight risks over perform.


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#74
LNK_Weather

Posted 17 April 2017 - 04:02 PM

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After the past few non-events and the NAM doing well with those, it is HUGE to have the NAM on our side with this one. OAX is completely convinced that tomorrow will be a non-event with Wednesday stealing the show, although I think high-precip supercells are very well possible tomorrow. It'll be a fun next couple of days, let's say that.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#75
NEJeremy

Posted 17 April 2017 - 08:04 PM

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Yeah that's a good point. The NAM is all about it. 18z has a nice line of storms fire along the rising warm front, only to come in with a second round right after from the cold front. Could be a good chance for some severe weather here, though tornadoes do look like they're going to be isolated right now.

 

You missed out man! Dunbar was the spot to be. I went to Blair and caught that monster that dropped tennis ball sized hail. The lightning was amazing with it. Gotta love when slight risks over perform.

It's funny, my wife who is for the most part very supportive of my chasing passion, but still drops hints sometimes of her annoyance too, actually said to me on Saturday, why aren't you out chasing? I had in my head that I shouldn't even ask because it was a holiday weekend and her dad was in town, but yet she says that to me while it's eating me alive to be "stuck" at home and there's a tornado 45 miles away from me. Of course, I'm sure it was some trap, and I would have paid the price if I was gone all day Saturday chasing. I did want to go after the cells north of town too, but sucked it up and stayed home too for those :P


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#76
jaster220

Posted 18 April 2017 - 11:12 AM

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It's funny, my wife who is for the most part very supportive of my chasing passion, but still drops hints sometimes of her annoyance too, actually said to me on Saturday, why aren't you out chasing? I had in my head that I shouldn't even ask because it was a holiday weekend and her dad was in town, but yet she says that to me while it's eating me alive to be "stuck" at home and there's a tornado 45 miles away from me. Of course, I'm sure it was some trap, and I would have paid the price if I was gone all day Saturday chasing. I did want to go after the cells north of town too, but sucked it up and stayed home too for those :P

 

 Well, if nothing else, it should've earned you some brownie points to redeem at some future point.. ;)


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#77
NEJeremy

Posted 18 April 2017 - 12:33 PM

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 Well, if nothing else, it should've earned you some brownie points to redeem at some future point.. ;)

Yeah I was thinking about that as I looked ahead to this week and the rest of the season! I'm chasing tomorrow in Iowa and Friday down in Oklahoma/Texas. That second trip is a leave Thursday and don't come home until late Friday night/early Saturday morning trip so I think I'm using my points right away as I'll be leaving her alone with our kids(5,1 yr old).


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#78
gabel23

Posted 19 April 2017 - 06:00 AM

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Yeah I was thinking about that as I looked ahead to this week and the rest of the season! I'm chasing tomorrow in Iowa and Friday down in Oklahoma/Texas. That second trip is a leave Thursday and don't come home until late Friday night/early Saturday morning trip so I think I'm using my points right away as I'll be leaving her alone with our kids(5,1 yr old).

Boy your lucky Jeremy, I have a 3 and 1 year old, both girls. I have hard enough time leaving for my golf league!! The only time I get to go out and chase is if they are close to my area. I'm hoping a supercell forms close to me today, conditions aren't looking too bad. Good luck today and the rest of the week to you!! 


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#79
LNK_Weather

Posted 19 April 2017 - 07:28 AM

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Every single short range model is making seem like the primary severe threat is here and not Iowa, where they are saying the Enhanced Risk will bust.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#80
NEJeremy

Posted 19 April 2017 - 07:33 AM

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Boy your lucky Jeremy, I have a 3 and 1 year old, both girls. I have hard enough time leaving for my golf league!! The only time I get to go out and chase is if they are close to my area. I'm hoping a supercell forms close to me today, conditions aren't looking too bad. Good luck today and the rest of the week to you!! 

I am pretty lucky. It wasn't always this way when my wife and I first were married. She finally accepted this is who I am and what I do :P Another big reason that I can go out so much is that I have a photographer/storm fanatic guy who pays me to take him out chasing. So for most of my chases I am actually making money. Makes a HUGE difference and is why I can go on longer chases especially.

I'm excited to see the enhanced risk today. 10% tor probs and a hatched risk for large hail. Could be a good day. Hopefully something forms near the warm front and goes crazy, but that will probably be just across the river into Iowa.


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#81
NebraskaWX

Posted 19 April 2017 - 07:50 AM

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HRRR has a MASSIVE supercell developing over LNK around rush hour. The hail core on that thing would rival what we saw last year with the infamous rainbow lightning storm that dropped softball sized hail throughout the city. NAM is less aggressive and shows more action in Iowa. This is a good day for chasing though, be sure to take pics Jeremy!!!


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#82
Hawkeye

Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:17 AM

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Every single short range model is making seem like the primary severe threat is here and not Iowa, where they are saying the Enhanced Risk will bust.

 

I noticed this as well.  Everyone is talking up the severe chance in Iowa, but the HRRR and 3k NAM show nothing developing in much of the "enhanced" area in central/eastern Iowa.


season snowfall: 10.8"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#83
Grizzcoat

Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:24 AM

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usually only follow in the Winter--- but this winter sucked so here I'am in C.IA hoping we get a show later today...


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#84
Hawkeye

Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:42 AM

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SPC update has shifted the enhanced area west out of eastern Iowa.


season snowfall: 10.8"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#85
NebraskaWX

Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:49 AM

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SPC update has shifted the enhanced area west out of eastern Iowa.

 

Not surprising. The main LP is further west it looks like. HRRR continuing to show some monster development out here. Thinking OMA/LNK are in a prime spot for some big time storms.


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#86
Grizzcoat

Posted 19 April 2017 - 09:21 AM

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Attached File  day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif   24.46KB   1 downloadsNice



#87
NebraskaWX

Posted 19 April 2017 - 09:42 AM

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Attached File  hrrr.refcmp.us_c.2017041916-loop.gif   323.17KB   0 downloads


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#88
LNK_Weather

Posted 19 April 2017 - 09:45 AM

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Pretty much every model is saying that LNK will steal the show with a supercell of some sort. Hope everything leaves my coverage area before my 6:30 test!

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#89
jaster220

Posted 19 April 2017 - 10:10 AM

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HRRR has a MASSIVE supercell developing over LNK around rush hour. The hail core on that thing would rival what we saw last year with the infamous rainbow lightning storm that dropped softball sized hail throughout the city. NAM is less aggressive and shows more action in Iowa. This is a good day for chasing though, be sure to take pics Jeremy!!!

 

Got any links to videos of that storm?


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#90
Hawkeye

Posted 19 April 2017 - 10:24 AM

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DVN has a new update stating what we're seeing on the models.  They have low confidence regarding storm formation over in this area.


season snowfall: 10.8"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#91
NebraskaWX

Posted 19 April 2017 - 11:10 AM

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Got any links to videos of that storm?



All my videos are crappy :/

Attached Files


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#92
Tom

Posted 19 April 2017 - 11:36 AM

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All my videos are crappy :/

That's dope!  You should put it up in the photo contest thread.  Sweet shot!



#93
gabel23

Posted 19 April 2017 - 11:38 AM

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Watches should be coming soon........

 

http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0519.html

 

 

Attached Files



#94
gabel23

Posted 19 April 2017 - 11:39 AM

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All my videos are crappy :/

 

 

That's dope!  You should put it up in the photo contest thread.  Sweet shot!

 

That is a pretty sweet pic!! 



#95
Hawkeye

Posted 19 April 2017 - 01:16 PM

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Recent runs of the HRRR have become much more enthusiastic about a good line of storms making it into eastern Iowa late this evening.


season snowfall: 10.8"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#96
LNK_Weather

Posted 19 April 2017 - 01:23 PM

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Watching these storms bubble up and move towards us makes me feel like a kid on Christmas.

 

Attached File  2.png   1.74MB   0 downloads


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#97
NebraskaWX

Posted 19 April 2017 - 01:27 PM

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Thanks guys!

 

 

I'm at work til 6 so hopefully it doesn't get here til I'm off! Doesn't look like the case though as these storms are flying. Looks nasty outside from my view. One of these things is going tornadic soon I can just tell.


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#98
LNK_Weather

Posted 19 April 2017 - 01:43 PM

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#LincolnDome looks like it's gonna work in full force. If we're lucky, maybe things will keep developing to our SW and work NE.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#99
Tom

Posted 19 April 2017 - 01:59 PM

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#LincolnDome looks like it's gonna work in full force. If we're lucky, maybe things will keep developing to our SW and work NE.


Looks like it's going to get rocked to me...

#100
NebraskaWX

Posted 19 April 2017 - 01:59 PM

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#LincolnDome looks like it's gonna work in full force. If we're lucky, maybe things will keep developing to our SW and work NE.

Definitely does not look like that right now lol


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50