2017 Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread

[Jaycee]

GFS has been fairly consistent in placing the biggest threat of severe weather around NW Missouri.

 

True. I think severe weather is almost as hard to track as winter storms though, like if you look down south right now, the moderate risk yesterday doesn't line up as strongly as where the now High risk is issued. I think we could easily see a shift, especially give the warm gulf moisture ahead pushing this thing further north and west than expected.

[Minny_Weather]

True. I think severe weather is almost as hard to track as winter storms though, like if you look down south right now, the moderate risk yesterday doesn't line up as strongly as where the now High risk is issued. I think we could easily see a shift, especially give the warm gulf moisture ahead pushing this thing further north and west than expected.

If we get severe weather on Sunday it had better wait until I get back from Iowa!

[jaster220]

I'm hoping the tornado threat comes back. No I don't want destruction either but those type of outbreaks are always accustomed by more intense severe threats as well. Hope the EURO is on to something, I'm also really anxious to see the NAM.

 

Also, it's supposed to be 76 and sunny on Saturday!! Can't wait to lay out and grill all day #daydrinking

 

What's 70's like again? I hardly remember February..

[NEJeremy]

going off of the GFS(that's the only detailed maps I can see), the biggest issue for tornado probs seems to be directional shear in the lowest levels. there's good speed shear but not a lot of turning between the surface to 850mb level with the surface winds a bit west of south. Would love to see the surface winds backed more. Storms look to be somewhat isolated initially so that may help, but I'm not seeing a big tornado day out of this system as is. SPC only mentioned wind and hail with it's outlook too.

[Jaycee]

going off of the GFS(that's the only detailed maps I can see), the biggest issue for tornado probs seems to be directional shear in the lowest levels. there's good speed shear but not a lot of turning between the surface to 850mb level with the surface winds a bit west of south. Would love to see the surface winds backed more. Storms look to be somewhat isolated initially so that may help, but I'm not seeing a big tornado day out of this system as is. SPC only mentioned wind and hail with it's outlook too.

that can change though I suppose. The NWS just decreased our chances to "slight chance of showers", awesome. Hope they fall flat on their face as they normally do, I'm getting sick of them making Fox News look like a gay pride parade with how conservative they are.

 

EDIT: Also, has anyone else noticed that the SPC has been pretty generous with their High Risk issuances this year? I get there have been strong tornadoes, but so far today they've been outside the high risk area.

 

[NEJeremy]

that can change though I suppose. The NWS just decreased our chances to "slight chance of showers", awesome. Hope they fall flat on their face as they normally do, I'm getting sick of them making Fox News look like a gay pride parade with how conservative they are.

 

EDIT: Also, has anyone else noticed that the SPC has been pretty generous with their High Risk issuances this year? I get there have been strong tornadoes, but so far today they've been outside the high risk area.

 

Oh for sure it can still change. The GFS has been pretty consistent though. However, the Euro's surface low placement is much different than the GFS. It is slower than the GFS and has the surface low over Nebraska vs the GFS being further northeast. A lot of times you can get surface winds more backed right near the low, so maybe something will change. The funny thing is the Omaha NWS AFD from this afternoon said it was the Euro that is the fastest vs the GFS. The GFS would put the storm chances basically in Iowa and the Euro would still give us a shot over Nebraska. At any rate.....

 

It is kind of crazy to see the number of high risks so far. The one earlier this week sure didn't pan out and the one today certainly hasn't verified so far.

[NEJeremy]

And as if almost on queue, the 18Z GFS looks pretty different and a lot more like the Euro. SLP is down in eastern Nebraska at 0Z next Monday. Still would have storms forming just east of here.. Clicked on some soundings and they look a little better too for tornado potential.

[Minny_Weather]

that can change though I suppose. The NWS just decreased our chances to "slight chance of showers", awesome. Hope they fall flat on their face as they normally do, I'm getting sick of them making Fox News look like a gay pride parade with how conservative they are.

 

EDIT: Also, has anyone else noticed that the SPC has been pretty generous with their High Risk issuances this year? I get there have been strong tornadoes, but so far today they've been outside the high risk area.

 

They went from issuing way too few high risks to handing them out like candy. It'd be like issuing a tornado emergency for every tornado that touched down.

[NEJeremy]

we're now within range of the NAM for this Sunday. It's a bit more promising than what the GFS shows. SBCAPE values are higher(>3k) and winds seem to be a bit more southerly vs SSW or SW on the GFS. The cap is very strong on the NAM though and doesn't really erode until between 21Z-0Z, so cells are very isolated on the NAM. Still looks like formation along or east of the river. For me this is too close of a set up to not go out for a chase. Maybe I'll get lucky and get a nice lone supercell vs a big line!

[Jaycee]

we're now within range of the NAM for this Sunday. It's a bit more promising than what the GFS shows. SBCAPE values are higher(>3k) and winds seem to be a bit more southerly vs SSW or SW on the GFS. The cap is very strong on the NAM though and doesn't really erode until between 21Z-0Z, so cells are very isolated on the NAM. Still looks like formation along or east of the river. For me this is too close of a set up to not go out for a chase. Maybe I'll get lucky and get a nice lone supercell vs a big line!

 

SPC isn't having any of that though. Sticking to their guns on the main action being in IA/MO/W KS. Hope there are some changes the next few days.

[NEJeremy]

Maybe not surpisingly, the NAM vs the GFS are way different in what they show on Sunday. The GFS is much quicker with a lead low taking it up into Minnesota by 0Z Monday vs the NAM is keeping the surface low over southeast Nebraska. The 3kNAM is now in range and it shows mid 60s dewpoints vs the GFS having low 60s and the SPC is talking mid to upper 50s. I'm guessing the NAM is overdoing things as winds are just starting to turn onshore down by the Gulf and dewpoints are in the 40s all the way down there. I guess we do have 2 1/2 days yet for moisture return and it has been very wet everywhere so evapotranspiration will hopefully help. The 3k NAM develops a supercell back near York/Grand Island and eventually forms a small line as it moves east. Has good helicity track with it as well. 

[Jaycee]

I know this doesn't do much justice, but the NAM is generally better with severe weather/spring storms than the GFS. This is just based on past experiences, generally the NAM is more accurate handling where the bulk of storms end up firing.

[Tom]

I know this doesn't do much justice, but the NAM is generally better with severe weather/spring storms than the GFS. This is just based on past experiences, generally the NAM is more accurate handling where the bulk of storms end up firing.

I have to agree.  The higher rez NAM does a much better job handling the convection as you get closer to 24-48 hours out.  I've seen it did a good job with the previous few events.

[Tom]

12z GFS is suggesting...instead of a drought, go find a boat...would not be good for #plantingseason

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017040712/gfs_apcpn_ncus_52.png

[Jaycee]

Bring it. I'll take all the weather I can, this is the best time of year! Warm during the day, dips into the 40's at night so you can crack open the window. Love it.

 

 

Thinking the SPC will have to include OMA/LNK in a risk here soon. Though the NAM isn't robust with the storms, it does show some individual supercells forming in Eastern Nebraska on Sunday.

[NEJeremy]

today=BUST. perfect surface low track, 3k CAPE, 40-50 kts of shear? Sounds great. Cap bust in April? Of course....  What a joke

[Tom]

Spring/Summer Photo Contest Thread...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1549-springsummer-photo-contest/

[Tom]

The Midwest/Lakes are poised to get some storms today...

 

 

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/activity_loop.gif

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017041012/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_10.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017041012/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_12.png

[Tom]

Boom!  Just as a post the image below...they pull the trigger...Severe T-Storm Watches hoisted for IL/SE WI/NW IN/SW MI...

 

 

 

[gabel23]

Boom!  Just as a post the image below...they pull the trigger...Severe T-Storm Watches hoisted for IL/SE WI/NW IN/SW MI...

 

 

 

 

 

Crap the cubs/dodgers game better not get rained out!! They are raising up their world series banner tonight!!! 

[Tom]

Crap the cubs/dodgers game better not get rained out!! They are raising up their world series banner tonight!!!

Storms should gone by then...the next 4-5 hours is the time table...

[jaster220]

Got 2nd batch of rumbling T-showers here in St. Joe today. Nothing too dramatic. Guessing the chill of the lake (relatively so) will damper anything until it's inland and recovered a bit. Now in Marshall, we could do better but I don't want more rain so pulling for a miss tbh (ducks and covers)

[Minny_Weather]

I'm liking our potential for at least a severe storm or two in SE Nebraska this afternoon. HRRR showing what looks like a high-precip supercell, sadly, that is the only model to show that

[Jaycee]

I'm liking our potential for at least a severe storm or two in SE Nebraska this afternoon. HRRR showing what looks like a high-precip supercell, sadly, that is the only model to show that

 

 

I'm liking our potential for at least a severe storm or two in SE Nebraska this afternoon. HRRR showing what looks like a high-precip supercell, sadly, that is the only model to show that

Yeah it doesn't look all that great on radar right now. I don't know, it could be possible. I'm sure the Lincoln dome will work it's magic here shortly though.

[NEJeremy]

Yeah it doesn't look all that great on radar right now. I don't know, it could be possible. I'm sure the Lincoln dome will work it's magic here shortly though.

I've been watching this too. If all goes to plan, the current rain should continue to move through and then the HRRR shows a cell or two developing on the southwest flank of the precip between 4-6p. SPC is talking about a possible upgrade. If it looks decent, I am going to head out.

[NEJeremy]

long ways out yet, but next week there could be a big system moving across the Plains. I was looking at some soundings/hodographs and found this one for next Wednesday in north central Oklahoma. Holy cow(as the great Harry Caray once said)!

[Jaycee]

long ways out yet, but next week there could be a big system moving across the Plains. I was looking at some soundings/hodographs and found this one for next Wednesday in north central Oklahoma. Holy cow(as the great Harry Caray once said)!

Dang son. OkWx24 I see you. Maybe the SPC will issue a proper high risk for once?!

 

Hoping we get some more rain here tonight, things are really greening up and I LOVE it. Think we just might get some severe weather around here next week, but it looks to primarily stay south for now. It is only April, so I can't expect much, although April has been a good month for us recently. Nothing compared to May and June though-- think things are REALLY going to ramp up here later this month.

[jaster220]

Yeah it doesn't look all that great on radar right now. I don't know, it could be possible. I'm sure the Lincoln dome will work it's magic here shortly though.

 

Can I borrow the Lincoln Dome? Must be over 400% normal rainfall in mby. Really ready to lose this pattern tbh. I think last May was pretty lush as well, then it was like somebody turned the spigot off and we were suddenly in a mini-drought in June/July. Oh how I miss a steady pattern. Extremes are great if you're are on the winning end of a winter pattern. Otherwise, nasso much.

 

The Kzoo River flows through Marshall near my house. September '08 was by far the worst of (3) events that forced water into my basement. So glad It's not that bad this time.

 

 

[Jaycee]

Can I borrow the Lincoln Dome? Must be over 400% normal rainfall in mby. Really ready to lose this pattern tbh. I think last May was pretty lush as well, then it was like somebody turned the spigot off and we were suddenly in a mini-drought in June/July. Oh how I miss a steady pattern. Extremes are great if you're are on the winning end of a winter pattern. Otherwise, nasso much.

 

The Kzoo River flows through Marshall near my house. September '08 was by far the worst of (3) events that forced water into my basement. So glad It's not that bad this time.

 

20170413 GRR Flood Data.PNG

 

 

Anytime man! Except you'd be hard pressed to get me to give you the 76 and sun we have right now holy cow is it amazing.

[Tom]

Saw this post in Gary Lezak's blog today where he believes the severe wx hot spot will be...it has been somewhat accurate...maybe nudge that a bit farther west/north.

 

 

[Jaycee]

Hi-Res NAM loving Nebraska for the next 2 days. Solid squall line moves through the Central and Eastern parts of the State tomorrow, then shows a solid outbreak on Wednesday. Would be surprised if the SPC doesn't upgrade us to a slight here soon, unless my timing is off. Here's what it's showing right now though:

 

 

[NEJeremy]

Hi-Res NAM loving Nebraska for the next 2 days. Solid squall line moves through the Central and Eastern parts of the State tomorrow, then shows a solid outbreak on Wednesday. Would be surprised if the SPC doesn't upgrade us to a slight here soon, unless my timing is off. Here's what it's showing right now though:

It looks like a decent chance of elevated hailers Tuesday night in Nebraska for sure. The hi-res NAM above definitely shows that. Wednesday, I'm a little pessimistic for severe weather around Nebraska. It all of course depends on timing and path of surface low, but the surface low seems like it's going to be "strung out" and therefore the surface winds aren't backed real nicely until you get out a ways ahead of the low and along the warm front. Best tornado chances will be east of Nebraska I think, but may get some hail/wind in eastern Nebraska Wednesday afternoon. I'm planning on chasing Wednesday over in Iowa east of Des Moines, especially after missing the tornado 45 miles south of me on Saturday(thanks Easter weekend, lol).

[Jaycee]

It looks like a decent chance of elevated hailers Tuesday night in Nebraska for sure. The hi-res NAM above definitely shows that. Wednesday, I'm a little pessimistic for severe weather around Nebraska. It all of course depends on timing and path of surface low, but the surface low seems like it's going to be "strung out" and therefore the surface winds aren't backed real nicely until you get out a ways ahead of the low and along the warm front. Best tornado chances will be east of Nebraska I think, but may get some hail/wind in eastern Nebraska Wednesday afternoon. I'm planning on chasing Wednesday over in Iowa east of Des Moines, especially after missing the tornado 45 miles south of me on Saturday(thanks Easter weekend, lol).

Yeah that's a good point. The NAM is all about it. 18z has a nice line of storms fire along the rising warm front, only to come in with a second round right after from the cold front. Could be a good chance for some severe weather here, though tornadoes do look like they're going to be isolated right now.

 

You missed out man! Dunbar was the spot to be. I went to Blair and caught that monster that dropped tennis ball sized hail. The lightning was amazing with it. Gotta love when slight risks over perform.

[Minny_Weather]

After the past few non-events and the NAM doing well with those, it is HUGE to have the NAM on our side with this one. OAX is completely convinced that tomorrow will be a non-event with Wednesday stealing the show, although I think high-precip supercells are very well possible tomorrow. It'll be a fun next couple of days, let's say that.

[NEJeremy]

Yeah that's a good point. The NAM is all about it. 18z has a nice line of storms fire along the rising warm front, only to come in with a second round right after from the cold front. Could be a good chance for some severe weather here, though tornadoes do look like they're going to be isolated right now.

 

You missed out man! Dunbar was the spot to be. I went to Blair and caught that monster that dropped tennis ball sized hail. The lightning was amazing with it. Gotta love when slight risks over perform.

It's funny, my wife who is for the most part very supportive of my chasing passion, but still drops hints sometimes of her annoyance too, actually said to me on Saturday, why aren't you out chasing? I had in my head that I shouldn't even ask because it was a holiday weekend and her dad was in town, but yet she says that to me while it's eating me alive to be "stuck" at home and there's a tornado 45 miles away from me. Of course, I'm sure it was some trap, and I would have paid the price if I was gone all day Saturday chasing. I did want to go after the cells north of town too, but sucked it up and stayed home too for those

[jaster220]

It's funny, my wife who is for the most part very supportive of my chasing passion, but still drops hints sometimes of her annoyance too, actually said to me on Saturday, why aren't you out chasing? I had in my head that I shouldn't even ask because it was a holiday weekend and her dad was in town, but yet she says that to me while it's eating me alive to be "stuck" at home and there's a tornado 45 miles away from me. Of course, I'm sure it was some trap, and I would have paid the price if I was gone all day Saturday chasing. I did want to go after the cells north of town too, but sucked it up and stayed home too for those

 

 Well, if nothing else, it should've earned you some brownie points to redeem at some future point..

[NEJeremy]

 Well, if nothing else, it should've earned you some brownie points to redeem at some future point..

Yeah I was thinking about that as I looked ahead to this week and the rest of the season! I'm chasing tomorrow in Iowa and Friday down in Oklahoma/Texas. That second trip is a leave Thursday and don't come home until late Friday night/early Saturday morning trip so I think I'm using my points right away as I'll be leaving her alone with our kids(5,1 yr old).

[gabel23]

Yeah I was thinking about that as I looked ahead to this week and the rest of the season! I'm chasing tomorrow in Iowa and Friday down in Oklahoma/Texas. That second trip is a leave Thursday and don't come home until late Friday night/early Saturday morning trip so I think I'm using my points right away as I'll be leaving her alone with our kids(5,1 yr old).

Boy your lucky Jeremy, I have a 3 and 1 year old, both girls. I have hard enough time leaving for my golf league!! The only time I get to go out and chase is if they are close to my area. I'm hoping a supercell forms close to me today, conditions aren't looking too bad. Good luck today and the rest of the week to you!! 

[Minny_Weather]

Every single short range model is making seem like the primary severe threat is here and not Iowa, where they are saying the Enhanced Risk will bust.

[NEJeremy]

Boy your lucky Jeremy, I have a 3 and 1 year old, both girls. I have hard enough time leaving for my golf league!! The only time I get to go out and chase is if they are close to my area. I'm hoping a supercell forms close to me today, conditions aren't looking too bad. Good luck today and the rest of the week to you!! 

I am pretty lucky. It wasn't always this way when my wife and I first were married. She finally accepted this is who I am and what I do Another big reason that I can go out so much is that I have a photographer/storm fanatic guy who pays me to take him out chasing. So for most of my chases I am actually making money. Makes a HUGE difference and is why I can go on longer chases especially.

I'm excited to see the enhanced risk today. 10% tor probs and a hatched risk for large hail. Could be a good day. Hopefully something forms near the warm front and goes crazy, but that will probably be just across the river into Iowa.