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2017 Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread

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#101
Snowlover76

Posted 19 April 2017 - 02:11 PM

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that cell looks kinda meh TBH



#102
NebraskaWX

Posted 19 April 2017 - 02:39 PM

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that cell looks kinda meh TBH

It was for us on the North side of town, my house supposedly got some golf ball sized hail in the yard according to my roommates. I'm gunna head north in hopes Omaha gets something, looks like the bulk of it is south though. Surprised none of these have had any spinups yet.


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#103
LNK_Weather

Posted 19 April 2017 - 02:47 PM

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#LincolnDome looks like it's gonna work in full force. If we're lucky, maybe things will keep developing to our SW and work NE.

Hey! I was wrong!  :D Got some nice sized hail here. Glad things filled in before they got here.


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#104
Tom

Posted 19 April 2017 - 02:51 PM

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It was for us on the North side of town, my house supposedly got some golf ball sized hail in the yard according to my roommates. I'm gunna head north in hopes Omaha gets something, looks like the bulk of it is south though. Surprised none of these have had any spinups yet.

I remember driving through LNK last November and I'm trying to envision what it looks like out there right now with those nasty storms.  To see the bubbling cloud tops at a distance with all that flat land is a sight to see I'm sure.



#105
LNK_Weather

Posted 19 April 2017 - 02:55 PM

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I remember driving through LNK last November and I'm trying to envision what it looks like out there right now with those nasty storms.  To see the bubbling cloud tops at a distance with all that flat land is a sight to see I'm sure.

I live in a highrise with a view to the West. I can tell you that is 100% true, especially when shelf clouds roll in. Sunsets are also quite pleasant.


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#106
NEJeremy

Posted 19 April 2017 - 04:17 PM

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I'm already home. What a waste of a decent setup. Here's why none of the storms dropped tornadoes. They were all on or slightly behind the pneumonia cold front that blasted through. I went to Lincoln and then drifted north to be closer to the warm front. Watched the storms form from Ceresco to southwest of Lincoln. Could tell they were elevated but had hopes the Lincoln storm would be able to move off the front when it turned east after moving northeast. No luck and by the time I got back down to the storm it was weakening. Didn't even take any pics! Oh well, still early in the season!

#107
Snowball

Posted 19 April 2017 - 04:23 PM

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Huge bust for everyone including SPC
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#108
LNK_Weather

Posted 19 April 2017 - 09:04 PM

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Huge bust for everyone including SPC

No tornado does not equal a bust. The hail here at UNL city campus was quite impressive. Not to mention the one moment where warnings stretched from Waverly, NE to Concordia, KS. Plus, weren't you in a warning at one point in Hickman?



#109
Grizzcoat

Posted 20 April 2017 - 12:38 AM

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1 tornado in Carroll  Cty , IA--- and really not that many hail/wind reports from  an enhanced threat. BUST big time. Probably because I got on for this summer stuff....


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#110
Tom

Posted 21 April 2017 - 06:15 AM

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Might become the largest out break of the season next Thu-Sat as models are showing a pretty strong system coming out of the Rockies.

 

C98OfUpXUAAHOIj.jpg



#111
NebraskaWX

Posted 21 April 2017 - 07:03 AM

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Might become the largest out break of the season next Thu-Sat as models are showing a pretty strong system coming out of the Rockies.

 

C98OfUpXUAAHOIj.jpg

 

 

Some pretty strong wording from the SPC for their Day 8 outlook. I'll be in Vancouver this week on a work trip and will be returning on Friday, so hopefully it holds off until the afternoon so I can get out there and chase!

 

 

   ...Friday/Day 8...
   The ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement in the western U.S.,
   developing a vigorous upper-level trough in the Four Corners region.
   This coincides with strong moisture advection across the Great
   Plains. The synoptic setup which the medium-range models have been
   forecasting for a couple days, could result in a significant severe
   weather event on Friday into Friday night across parts of the
   southern and central Plains with tornadoes, large hail and wind
   damage possible. Due to the potential for a higher-end event on
   Friday, have added a 15 percent contour where model consensus places
   the greatest chance of severe weather.


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#112
NEJeremy

Posted 21 April 2017 - 07:22 AM

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I am getting pretty excited/optimistic for storm chances next week. Yeah it's a ways away, but models have been consistent in showing something big the last 1/2 of next week. Also looks like multiple chances as pieces of energy eject out ahead of the main trough, so could be chances from Wednesday all the way through Saturday. Usually though by the time you get to the end of a multiple day outbreak, the atmosphere gets too worked over and the wind fields aren't as favorable especially with a closed off 500mb low. At any rate I'm looking to Thursday/Friday as the possible big days. However, these things tend to slow down as well.

Looking out even longer, it looks to remain very active and also gets much warmer for a lot of areas. The GFS had highs in the upper 90s in the southeast and also had lots of 70+ dewpoints east of the Rockies and even up into the southern Great Lakes. What a quick switch to summer that would be! Lastly it showed rainfall amounts of 5-8" for lots of places over the next couple of weeks.


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#113
Tom

Posted 21 April 2017 - 07:28 AM

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I am getting pretty excited/optimistic for storm chances next week. Yeah it's a ways away, but models have been consistent in showing something big the last 1/2 of next week. Also looks like multiple chances as pieces of energy eject out ahead of the main trough, so could be chances from Wednesday all the way through Saturday. Usually though by the time you get to the end of a multiple day outbreak, the atmosphere gets too worked over and the wind fields aren't as favorable especially with a closed off 500mb low. At any rate I'm looking to Thursday/Friday as the possible big days. However, these things tend to slow down as well.

Looking out even longer, it looks to remain very active and also gets much warmer for a lot of areas. The GFS had highs in the upper 90s in the southeast and also had lots of 70+ dewpoints east of the Rockies and even up into the southern Great Lakes. What a quick switch to summer that would be! Lastly it showed rainfall amounts of 5-8" for lots of places over the next couple of weeks.

This system is correlating with the last significant mult-day severe wx outbreak on Feb 28th/March 1st...I remember all the Tornado's we saw in IL that day in late Feb.  Given the time of year now, I'd imagine the atmosphere will be juiced up to produce some pretty good chances for ya'll storm chasers!


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#114
Tom

Posted 21 April 2017 - 10:50 AM

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12z Euro looks mighty strong and favorable for a huge severe wx threat next Friday into Saturday...the system on Friday may hit the same areas that were targeted back on Feb 28th...

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_8.png

 

 

Next Sat system will need to slow down a bit and head farther west in order for NE folks to get in on the action...

 

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_9.png

 

 

ecmwf_T850_us_9.png



#115
NebraskaWX

Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:11 PM

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I think our chances are going to increase. This last system moved NW quite a bit in just a couple of days, I'd think these next weekend will follow. Either way, this is going to be huge from the looks of it.



#116
Tom

Posted 22 April 2017 - 06:08 AM

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Both Euro/GFS now showing more blocking and colder air infiltrating the Plains/Midwest with next weeks system.  It may even snow in some places!



#117
NEJeremy

Posted 22 April 2017 - 08:12 AM

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This was from the 0Z GFS last night. Some of these numbers are CRAZY! Storms would be moving very fast too which is bad for advance warning times....

Attached Files



#118
NWLinnIA

Posted 22 April 2017 - 08:19 AM

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the 06z was shades of this week. A surface low develops out ahead of the potential big day friday(GFS shows thursday, but it tends to have a progressive bias, and I believe that it will slow down towards friday with time) However, unlike previous runs, the early wave on tue/wed amplifies and this causes CAA to really interfere with lee cyclogenesis of the next wave. The product of this is now the friday wave is shoved further much south and 5mb weaker. This results in a much less impressive setup overall, but still a relatively decent one, if introduced capping concerns are alleviated. 12z GFS looks more or less like the 06z run. Regardless, potential is 100% there for one of the bigger days this season has seen so far, perhaps the biggest if cards are played right.

 

EDIT: After the 12z run came in, it is still certainly suppressed, but still gets the job done. The setup is still significantly further south, but the axis of backed winds out ahead of the surface low is much wider and is deeper with a 990-992mb surface low over west texas. Still not 00z weenie material but better than the 06z.


2016-17 Snowfall (Dec. 4: 4.5") (Dec. 10-11: 3.1") (Dec. 16-17: 3.6") (Dec. 23: 0.5")(Jan. 22: 1.1") (Feb. 08: 1.1") (Feb. 24: 0.9")(Mar. 13: 5.0")

TOTAL: 19.8"


#119
Tom

Posted 22 April 2017 - 08:27 AM

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Based on what I'm seeing, both GFS/EURO pushing the severe wx threat farther S/SE.  Today's 12z GFS has shunted it down towards the southern Midwest/Plains which is similar to last nights Euro run.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png



#120
NEJeremy

Posted 22 April 2017 - 08:38 AM

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Here's the 12Z GFS today. Definitely shifted a bit south than last nights 0Z run. Numbers actually are higher though than the run last night. 1km SRH= 500+ and 3k SRH 900+ and 6km bulk shear of 87kts!!

Just further for me to drive I guess :P

Attached Files



#121
Tom

Posted 22 April 2017 - 08:44 AM

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Better chances may be inline for Sat night...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png



#122
Tom

Posted 22 April 2017 - 08:47 AM

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Here's the 12Z GFS today. Definitely shifted a bit south than last nights 0Z run. Numbers actually are higher though than the run last night. 1km SRH= 500+ and 3k SRH 900+ and 6km bulk shear of 87kts!!

Just further for me to drive I guess :P

Might wanna visit our lone member @Okwx!  He's been getting some active wx of late and will probably be in the sweet spot this go-around.



#123
Hawkeye

Posted 22 April 2017 - 09:06 AM

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A couple days ago I was pretty excited about next week's pattern.  Now the southeast model trend has Iowa potentially gettting stuck with chilly, showery weather for several days.


season snowfall: 17.9"

 

'15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"      '11-12: 21.8"      '10-11: 35.8"      '09-10: 45.8"      '08-09: 47.5"      '07-08: 61.9"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#124
Tom

Posted 22 April 2017 - 10:44 AM

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12z Euro is saying "good bye" to any widespread severe wx chances for many of our members except for Okwx...pretty large cold pool in the central CONUS Day 5-10.  There may be a window Tue-Wed period east of IA/NE???



#125
Tom

Posted 22 April 2017 - 10:46 AM

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The only storm potential may be for the Midwesterner's next weekend Sat-Sun period, but that is still so far out it will likely change.



#126
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 April 2017 - 07:45 AM

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Definitely gaining some much needed soil moisture and our creeks and rivers are all full. Quite a turnaround in a week. Much needed so very glad for the rainfall and storms.
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#127
Tom

Posted 23 April 2017 - 07:51 AM

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Definitely gaining some much needed soil moisture and our creeks and rivers are all full. Quite a turnaround in a week. Much needed so very glad for the rainfall and storms.

I bet everything looks lush and green with the rolling hills down by you.  I'm recalling visual memories from last year when I drove down Interstate 44 through OK.  Great landscape!



#128
NebraskaWX

Posted 23 April 2017 - 10:56 AM

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Definitely gaining some much needed soil moisture and our creeks and rivers are all full. Quite a turnaround in a week. Much needed so very glad for the rainfall and storms.



You're already in an enhanced risk (I think) for day 6. That's insane. You're about to be flirting with a monstrous outbreak next week man.

#129
Hawkeye

Posted 23 April 2017 - 11:32 AM

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Some areas down in Missouri/Illinois may need a boat by next weekend.  Models have generally come back nw with the big lows this week.


season snowfall: 17.9"

 

'15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"      '11-12: 21.8"      '10-11: 35.8"      '09-10: 45.8"      '08-09: 47.5"      '07-08: 61.9"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#130
Tom

Posted 23 April 2017 - 09:04 PM

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Some areas down in Missouri/Illinois may need a boat by next weekend.  Models have generally come back nw with the big lows this week.

00z GFS looking worse for the corn belt...next 10 days looking like some serious flooding concerns and bad for crop production...

 

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_40.png



#131
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 April 2017 - 10:11 PM

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You're already in an enhanced risk (I think) for day 6. That's insane. You're about to be flirting with a monstrous outbreak next week man.


Got my eyes on that one. May have to go out and chase one if I can.

#132
Tom

Posted 24 April 2017 - 06:11 AM

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Severe wx Threat looks to be shifting towards the Texarkana Region

 

C-LkTXDVoAA4YZj.jpg

 

C-LkUItVoAEYi1z.jpg

C-LkVeHVoAAimNz.jpg



#133
Tom

Posted 24 April 2017 - 10:38 AM

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It's pretty amusing how nature decides to dig these powerful storms so far south into the southern Plains and its the end of April!  Both 12z GFS/EURO really have shifted the track of the powerful weekend system down into TX and cuts up towards the lower lakes.  Ultimately, a lot of us will stay clear of the real strong severe wx threat except for our friend down in OK!



#134
clintbeed1993

Posted 24 April 2017 - 01:10 PM

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Yay, cold showers.  My lord the weather has been awful since winter.  No snow and now no storms either.


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