2017 Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread

[Tom]

Better chances may be inline for Sat night...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

[Tom]

Here's the 12Z GFS today. Definitely shifted a bit south than last nights 0Z run. Numbers actually are higher though than the run last night. 1km SRH= 500+ and 3k SRH 900+ and 6km bulk shear of 87kts!!

Just further for me to drive I guess

Might wanna visit our lone member @Okwx!  He's been getting some active wx of late and will probably be in the sweet spot this go-around.

[Hawkeye]

A couple days ago I was pretty excited about next week's pattern.  Now the southeast model trend has Iowa potentially gettting stuck with chilly, showery weather for several days.

[Tom]

12z Euro is saying "good bye" to any widespread severe wx chances for many of our members except for Okwx...pretty large cold pool in the central CONUS Day 5-10.  There may be a window Tue-Wed period east of IA/NE???

[Tom]

The only storm potential may be for the Midwesterner's next weekend Sat-Sun period, but that is still so far out it will likely change.

[OKwx2k4]

Definitely gaining some much needed soil moisture and our creeks and rivers are all full. Quite a turnaround in a week. Much needed so very glad for the rainfall and storms.

[Tom]

Definitely gaining some much needed soil moisture and our creeks and rivers are all full. Quite a turnaround in a week. Much needed so very glad for the rainfall and storms.

I bet everything looks lush and green with the rolling hills down by you.  I'm recalling visual memories from last year when I drove down Interstate 44 through OK.  Great landscape!

[Jaycee]

Definitely gaining some much needed soil moisture and our creeks and rivers are all full. Quite a turnaround in a week. Much needed so very glad for the rainfall and storms.

 

You're already in an enhanced risk (I think) for day 6. That's insane. You're about to be flirting with a monstrous outbreak next week man.

[Hawkeye]

Some areas down in Missouri/Illinois may need a boat by next weekend.  Models have generally come back nw with the big lows this week.

[Tom]

Some areas down in Missouri/Illinois may need a boat by next weekend.  Models have generally come back nw with the big lows this week.

00z GFS looking worse for the corn belt...next 10 days looking like some serious flooding concerns and bad for crop production...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042400/gfs_apcpn_ncus_40.png

[OKwx2k4]

You're already in an enhanced risk (I think) for day 6. That's insane. You're about to be flirting with a monstrous outbreak next week man.

Got my eyes on that one. May have to go out and chase one if I can.

[Tom]

Severe wx Threat looks to be shifting towards the Texarkana Region

 

 

[Tom]

It's pretty amusing how nature decides to dig these powerful storms so far south into the southern Plains and its the end of April!  Both 12z GFS/EURO really have shifted the track of the powerful weekend system down into TX and cuts up towards the lower lakes.  Ultimately, a lot of us will stay clear of the real strong severe wx threat except for our friend down in OK!

[clintbeed1993]

Yay, cold showers.  My lord the weather has been awful since winter.  No snow and now no storms either.

[NEJeremy]

Very sobering and sad night tonight in Texas. 5 dead and nearly 50 injured. Briefly caught the wedge that went through Canton, and then got a much better view of the second tornado that followed behind it just to the west. Stupid trees prevented much of a view. Saw some trees debarked and talked to a lady that had her trailer home destroyed. There was nothing left but a pile of debris. Hate chases that end like this. Will post video and pics when I get a chance. Spending the night near Oklahoma City before driving the rest of the way home tomorrow

[NEJeremy]

Just thought I would share my Facebook page that I have for my storm chasing. Feel free to follow/like!

 

https://www.facebook.com/GreatPlainsTornadoTours/

[NEJeremy]

Damage surveys from the Texas tornadoes on 4/29 that I chased. Some very impressive information including one of the tornadoes on the ground for over 40 miles and 80 minutes straight and was almost a mile wide at one point! That one wasn't even the strongest, as another one was an EF-4 with winds up to 185 mph.

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201705021651-KFWD-NOUS44-PNSFWD

[Tom]

Nebraska Peeps!  This is about as impressive as it gets for a Day 7 severe wx outlook...the pattern next week looks quite interesting...

 

 

 

[NEJeremy]

Nebraska Peeps!  This is about as impressive as it gets for a Day 7 severe wx outlook...the pattern next week looks quite interesting...

 

 

 

 

I'm looking forward to next week. It should be active! It's interesting to see how different the models are which of course is understandable since this is a week out. Looking at the GFS, it looks like Monday could have an opportunity if the cap breaks/energy arrives in time in Nebraska. Tuesday looks better further south into Kansas. Wednesday which is the day of this map, actually didn't look that impressive on the GFS. I've heard talk about things looking good again towards the end of the week, but again GFS isn't that impressive. We'll see how it changes.

[Jaycee]

I'm looking forward to next week. It should be active! It's interesting to see how different the models are which of course is understandable since this is a week out. Looking at the GFS, it looks like Monday could have an opportunity if the cap breaks/energy arrives in time in Nebraska. Tuesday looks better further south into Kansas. Wednesday which is the day of this map, actually didn't look that impressive on the GFS. I've heard talk about things looking good again towards the end of the week, but again GFS isn't that impressive. We'll see how it changes.

 

Was going to say, I looked at the GFS and didn't really see all that much. Wonder how the EURO and CMC are handling it. Either way, that map is eye candy. I'd love to get some quality severe weather to fire in Eastern Neb, we've got shafted pretty hard so far.

[Tom]

Next Tuesday looking favorable for our central Plains posters...

 

[Jaycee]

Next Tuesday looking favorable for our central Plains posters...

 

 

Bring itttt. I looked for these maps today and couldn't find them, where do you get them from?

[Tom]

Bring itttt. I looked for these maps today and couldn't find them, where do you get them from?

A met on Twitter...WSI company...

[Tom]

Tuesday & Wednesday's Severe Wx risk....

 

 

 

[Tom]

Increasingly optimistic NE peeps will finally get some boomers Tuesday night...

 

 

 

 

SPC not overly enthusiastic...

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif?1494770933509

[Jaycee]

I'm confused as to why were not even in a slight risk yet...

[NEJeremy]

The 3km hi res NAM breaks out plenty of storms with good helicity tracks between Omaha and Des Moines tomorrow afternoon and with a warm front in the area there should be plenty of helicity available. I'm interested to see what the HRRR says tomorrow morning as most forecasts I've read think nothing during the day. Tuesday will be a chase day down in western Oklahoma and Thursday that way as well. It should be a fun week! The hi res NAM did show some nice storms in central Nebraska Tuesday afternoon so maybe the risk will include areas further north eventually

[NEJeremy]

Wow, 3km NAM looks pretty darn good tomorrow. Too close not to go out!

[Tom]

I'm confused as to why were not even in a slight risk yet...

I have noticed SPC is always gun shy to come out with a higher level risk even a couple days out.  They seemingly increase their risk outlooks as you get closer to the day.  Having said that, they issued a larger Slight Risk today.

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/day2otlk_0600-1-640x436.gif

[Tom]

SPC just issued a Meso discussion for some strong storms that will likely erupt and track easterly towards Chitown later this evening.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0716.gif

 

 

James' area may be rocking around 4:00pm or so...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017051513/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_8.png

 

 

 

Chitown by 8:00pm...bow echo signature on the latest HRRR run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017051513/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_12.png

[Tom]

NE Peeps still looking like a hot spot for chasing!

 

[Jaycee]

NE Peeps still looking like a hot spot for chasing!

 

It'll be interesting to see if the SPC updates to an Enhanced risk here soon. Not sure if they will, but I think this environment is really favorable, just need higher moisture return.

[St Paul Storm]

The TC area about to get hit with a decent line of storms moving in from the southwest. No warnings out but it's gaining strength.

[jaster220]

SPC just issued a Meso discussion for some strong storms that will likely erupt and track easterly towards Chitown later this evening.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0716.gif

 

 

James' area may be rocking around 4:00pm or so...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017051513/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_8.png

 

 

 

Chitown by 8:00pm...bow echo signature on the latest HRRR run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017051513/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_12.png

 

Hope it holds together further east just for some moisture if not storms.

[Jaycee]

I'm not the greatest at reading severe weather graphs, but from what I can tell, the shear is somewhat strong tomorrow, and instability is through the roof. However, the updraft helicity and supercell formation looks awful. Is it because the LCL is low? I just don't understand why this isn't a massive outbreak, the instability is ridiculous:

 

[Tom]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for N IA and already one lone storm fired up in N IL  producing half dollar hail!

[Tom]

Some nasty storms firing up in NE IA...there was a Tornado warned storm but has since diminished near Decorah, IA...

 

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/arx/wxstory/Tab1FileL.png

 

 

There was a Tornado warned storm but has since diminished near Decorah, IA...

[Tom]

You can see the spin on radar with that lone cell in NE IA...

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=ARX-N0Q-1-12

[Tom]

Courtesy of Skilling, here are some huge hail shots from Dane county WI...

 

 

 

Winnebago County, IL...

 

[Tom]

There is your Enhanced Risk!

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1494942244417