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2017 Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread


Tom

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No way we don't get a moderate risk for the winds tonight. Squall line looks insanely powerful when it comes through here tonight on the NAM especially. Can't wait!

Take some night time lighting shots!

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I got my garden all planted yesterday an picked up .30" of rain over night. I want to see some nasty storms tonight, just hoping the wind isn't overly terrible! Here is what Hastings NWS is thinking. NebWx, I think your right there will be an upgrade to moderate risk this afternoon, I would be shocked if there wasn't! 

 

 

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I think this is the first PDS tornado watch of the season!! That is some high probabilities!!!

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0220.html

 

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes 

High (90%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

High (80%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (60%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

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Good hunting out there NE peeps. Don't care for Tors after dark personally, but stay safe when you can! ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I think this is the first PDS tornado watch of the season!! That is some high probabilities!!!

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0220.html

 

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes 

High (90%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

High (80%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (60%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

Crazy! That tornado warned storm in Oklahoma looks monstrous. Surprised we didn't get upgraded to a moderate risk for wind, but I'm sure we'll see some wild storms here shortly.

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That's an impressive shelf cloud!! You get any wind or hail damage?? 

The heavens have finally woken up for NE peeps.  Looks like a lot of heavy/training rainfall for some folks near LNK/OMA.  Your farther NW, right??

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I left Omaha to chase down TX/OK today and of course Omaha gets a huge storm when I'm gone. Thankfully, it wasn't too bad at my house for my wife who is home with my 2 little ones.

I saw a tornado near Mclean, TX before we started getting pelted by tennis to baseball sized hail! Largest hail I've ever personally seen. Before that hail started, I got hit in the temple with a rogue ping pong ball sized hail. It left a mark!

Our new chase vehicle has some very large dents on it, but didn't lose or crack a windshield.

Kept chasing that cell and it had a rain wrapped tornado for at least another hour, but never got a clear view of it again. The cell to our south was the one that went near Elk City, OK and there were reports of GRAPE FRUIT sized hail!

I have a down day tomorrow to relax before the next potentially big day on Thursday. I'll post pics and vid when I can.

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06z High Rez NAM showing a bowed-out line of storms firing in E IA during dinner time...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017051706/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_17.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017051706/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_18.png

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The heavens have finally woken up for NE peeps.  Looks like a lot of heavy/training rainfall for some folks near LNK/OMA.  Your farther NW, right??

Yep, I'm straight west of Omaha by 80 miles, and northwest of Lincoln by 60 miles. I thought I was going to miss out on all the action last night. The storms that formed early and pounded the I-80 corridor literally missed me by about 30 miles. I lucked out though with the storms out in North Platte, those storms swung through over night and dropped 1.3" of rain. Perfect amount, and I avoided all the damage! Once we get things to warm back up my garden should take off!! 

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Hail from yesterday in Texas. These weren't even the biggest ones I'm sure. Just grabbed a couple and took a pic!

 

Heard a lot of peeps lost car windows and got plenty of "hood tattoos" as chase mementos. I don't own a vehicle I'd sacrifice like that, lol

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Heard a lot of peeps lost car windows and got plenty of "hood tattoos" as chase mementos. I don't own a vehicle I'd sacrifice like that, lol

Yep we saw a couple of chaser vehicles with no back window. My chase partner's wife was none to happy to hear about the new dents in the vehicle!

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A nice line moved through my area this evening.  I avoided anything severe... no hail, sub-60 wind.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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That line is flaring up some nasty storms!  Crossing the Mississippi River into IL ATM...we def have some members in the vicinity of these cells.

Nice looking storm just west of De Kalb looks nasty, nice hook showing up on it. Also a storm just went tornado warned around the Rockford area. Hopefully the Rockford Peaches woman's baseball stadium will be ok, LOL! I love that show. 

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The active weather looks to continue tomorrow. This could be one of the biggest day's of the year, wouldn't be surprised to see a high risk by tomorrow afternoon. Those storms look to ride up into our area leading to more heavy rain. My area is in a Flash Flood Watch and it looks like 1-2" of rain looks likely on top of the 2.4" I have already seen the past two days! 

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The active weather looks to continue tomorrow. This could be one of the biggest day's of the year, wouldn't be surprised to see a high risk by tomorrow afternoon. Those storms look to ride up into our area leading to more heavy rain. My area is in a Flash Flood Watch and it looks like 1-2" of rain looks likely on top of the 2.4" I have already seen the past two days!

youreally think Friday will have severe? Kinda looks like a meh setup to me
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Today looks like it could be one heck of a day. Everyone with a camera and a bicycle will be out chasing. Hopefully everyone stays safe, but man when I see that pink for tornadoes with a significant hatching I get the shivers.I do not know where our posters from down that way are, but please stay safe.

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Unreal!

 

...SUMMARY...
   An outbreak of severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, very large hail
   and wind damage is expected to develop across parts of the southern
   and central Plains from this afternoon into this evening and
   overnight.  Some strong, long-lived tornadoes are expected, along
   with hail to near 4 inches in diameter, over parts of Kansas and
   Oklahoma.  Large hail, tornadoes and wind damage also will be
   possible outside of these areas across parts of the southern and
   central Plains.  Damaging gusts and sporadic hail also are expected
   across parts of the lower Great Lakes region to western New England
   this afternoon and early evening.

 

 

 

This is going to be one hell of a day from what I can see, the shear and instability are off the charts. Hope everyone is ready for this down in KS/OK.
 

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So two storms just formed in the area of the PDS tornado watch, within minutes they are already showing signs of developing a hook. These storms are going to go bonkers today. Crazy. 

Hail is growing, holy cow this should be tornado warned really soon. 

 

At 141 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of

Gould, moving northeast at 35 mph.

 

This is a very dangerous storm.

 

HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

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