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March 2014 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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Actually, I think I misinterpreted the DVN at first. They mention some digging and a trough in the Plains, but that doesn't mean cold weather for us, and they do say warmer weather earlier next week after the NW flow this weekend, which is supported by the -PNA, which in turn helps with the possibility of a larger scale storm.

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12z Euro nice hit IA/IL/IN/OH...this storm has soo much potential.  Should be another big storm.

 

Edit: This will be a cold system so snow ratios will be higher.  850's are between -8C & -10C for N IL.

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Amazing to see how much discrepancy there is between foreign models and domestic (GFS) when we are 6 days away.  Like you said Money, GFS shows something big, looses it, then brings it back playing catch up.

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I think ORD has a shot at coming close to the record with this system.  As is the case with these clippers coming out of the NW, Euro really hasn't done well with them this winter.  However, this Clipper seems to be carrying more juice and has more energy and the model may be reading that energy a lot better than the other models.

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ORD is at 79", record is 89.7"...10" away and if this system can be a big one we can break it.  Can't believe how cold the Euro is for next week.  This can finally bring a big storm for IA folks.

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ORD is at 79", record is 89.7"...10" away and if this system can be a big one we can break it.  Can't believe how cold the Euro is for next week.  This can finally bring a big storm for IA folks.

 

Another storm developing at hr 216 on the euro right after.

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ED, after looking at the maps, it looks like a piece of energy coming out of the northern Rockies that rides the western ridge and comes down along the southern edge of the deepening trough.  You gotta watch these type of systems as it is late in the season and thermal boundary is much greater this time of year that can really spin up some Clipper's on steroids.

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12z Euro nice hit IA/IL/IN/OH...this storm has soo much potential.  Should be another big storm.

 

Edit: This will be a cold system so snow ratios will be higher.  850's are between -8C & -10C for N IL.

Tom, alittle more north with this system and im in the 8-12inch range.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z Euro nice hit IA/IL/IN/OH...this storm has soo much potential.  Should be another big storm.

 

Edit: This will be a cold system so snow ratios will be higher.  850's are between -8C & -10C for N IL.

wow...that bullseye in Iowa is right where i live. I do not like being in the bullseye almost a week out. If this was Monday i would be stoked.

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Like I said back in February, March is going to be a hell of a cold/snowy month for many of us in our region.  12z Euro doesn't show any signs of a warm up and brings yet another cold HP the following weekend when probably most of us will have a fresh healthy snow cover in place.  I can't imagine what this weather pattern will bring when the LRC's SW Flow part of it starts cycling thru at the end of March and that is about when the ridging will start developing near Alaska, cold air coming down south, juicy systems out of the SW spells big time systems.  It's going to be a fun ride to the finish.  Buckle up boys and girls!

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Usually, this time of the year, these systems always tend to jog a bit north. So, anything shown south, will lift to the north eventually.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yeah. It's like a hybrid clipper though isn't it? It comes from Canada, digs/strengthens and then usually brings a lot of gulf moisture with it.

What Tom said makes sense... I think I'll just refer to it as a hybrid clipper for right now, because that's what it seems like at this point. Might get some disturbance from the Northern Rockies that enhances it, but that's where the "hybrid" part comes from. I'm sure a NWS station will tell us exactly at some point, but I'll go with a clipper on roids for now. Some pretty intense snowfall amounts thrown out by the Euro there..

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ED, and that is at 10:1 snow ratios...here is the total qpf...snow ratios will be about 14:1 with very cold 850's. :D

 

What is even more intriguing is that this Clipper has been showing lots of moisture run after run.  I wont get excited till about Sunday but nice to see a wet trend.  Track will fluctuate back and forth but I like our chances.

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This is a classic temperature map for March illustrating winter still holding on for the northern 1/2 of the U.S. and warm building to the south.  Let the battle begin...week 1-2 are going to be very interesting around here.

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Looks like a snowy and cold next week which I am sure will be driving people nuts. Actually our high school baseball season starts on the 22nd and I highly doubt that any schools will be able to play if the Euro pans out. I know my son is bummed as he at least would like to practice in the parking lot instead of the gym everyday and once he gets wind of next week and the week after(which is spring break by the way) then he is gonna be pissed. I know things can change in a hurry but longe range seems to spell "winter".

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As JB says, "Build the Ridge, release the Fridge"...Euro ensembles continue with NE Pacific ridge developing around the 22nd, result is a very cold classic 500mb pattern over lower 48.  With the SSW taking place, expect the PV to take up residence in Canada that will funnel waves of late season cold.

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84hr NAM showing something brewing that may impact our area. Hopefully that HP to the north will not squash this thing as it looks pretty potent.

 

GFS completely different looking. Has the low in MX while the NAM has it in OK.

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I guess all the local mets are not even considering the GGEM/EURO model for next week.  They are all predicting back to back 50's next Tue/Wed.  I guess you can say they are sick of this winter already.

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Looks like a snowy and cold next week which I am sure will be driving people nuts. Actually our high school baseball season starts on the 22nd and I highly doubt that any schools will be able to play if the Euro pans out. I know my son is bummed as he at least would like to practice in the parking lot instead of the gym everyday and once he gets wind of next week and the week after(which is spring break by the way) then he is gonna be pissed. I know things can change in a hurry but longe range seems to spell "winter".

All the coaches around here are saying they won't be able to get field ready until April 1 at they very earliest, and that's if nothing else happens. And our regionals are like May 14 or around there. But it's fine with me, I only play baseball because I'm at a small school and it's expected of me basically and I would feel like I let my coach down if I don't go out. I wish it would get a little warmer, though, because I want to start going for runs in some decent weather..

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Wow Nebraska missed again. It is to the point of desperation around here for anything. We had a 90% of rain yesterday and got a trace. I have asked farmers in this area what they think and they are very worried. We have been below average precipitation wise for several years. The ground has cracks in my backyard. I realize it is great to set snowfall records in chicago but this dry spell could cost not just Nebraska but the nation for food costs.

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Wow, didn't really even notice until today that in places that see sun almost the whole day, the snow pack is gone completely. Lots of areas with no snow anymore. Forgot what that looked like.

 

Did you warm up more than predicted?

 

It will be interesting tonight if the barer ground has any effect on lows.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Did you warm up more than predicted?

 

It will be interesting tonight if the barer ground has any effect on lows.

I don't think so, but some melting did still occur today. Lots of snow has just been wiped out with the warm temps. There won't be much around at all by the time the weekend rolls around..

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Supposed to be 10° tonight, will see how that goes. Up to 11 hours and 45 minutes of daylight now.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Well, Im 3inches away from setting the all time record snowfall set back in 1880-81. Currently at 90.1" for the winter season. Just amazing!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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To every Chicagoan:

 

 

If I ever hear you complain about a 3-6" snow again, I will personally drive out there and pimp slap every one of you! Haha only kidding, but nothing grinds my gears more than hearing complaints about snowfall from you folks over there, not saying anyone really did, but there have been instances recently where it's like.. bros, do you even drought? Because we do. And none of you know how bad it sucks because you haven't had it near as bad as we have. Who would've thought that after a 2012 where we literally fried from winter until the spring of 2013 where we somehow recovered from most of it, Nebraska would become a wasteland AGAIN. To hear you guys in Chicago having a record-breaking year, and even parts of Iowa, to have a year here in the Plains where we've received no snow, no sleet, no freezing rain, no rain, but dry conditions and the bone chilling cold that you guys have received, it just hurts man! 

 

Sorry for the rant, it's not like you guys can do anything about the weather, it just really really sucks out here. It's been hard for us in the Plains forum to get any topic started because of this, so that's why you see all of us in here a lot of the time. Speaking on behalf of my Nebraskan bros, we'd all REALLY appreciate it if you guys could update us on if there is any incoming weather for our area. I mean anything, like the LRC changing, La Nina/El Nino, you name it, if it's mentioned we'd all be stoked, because we're starving for precip, and anything to potentially keep our hopes up that change is coming would be awesome. You guys are the ones that got me into weather, and I've been looking up to most of you on the Great Lakes forum since westernusawx way back when. I'm still a rookie, and love hearing your guys' input especially when you mention us out here in the Plains. Just wanted to throw that out there!

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To every Chicagoan:

 

 

If I ever hear you complain about a 3-6" snow again, I will personally drive out there and pimp slap every one of you! Haha only kidding, but nothing grinds my gears more than hearing complaints about snowfall from you folks over there, not saying anyone really did, but there have been instances recently where it's like.. bros, do you even drought? Because we do. And none of you know how bad it sucks because you haven't had it near as bad as we have. Who would've thought that after a 2012 where we literally fried from winter until the spring of 2013 where we somehow recovered from most of it, Nebraska would become a wasteland AGAIN. To hear you guys in Chicago having a record-breaking year, and even parts of Iowa, to have a year here in the Plains where we've received no snow, no sleet, no freezing rain, no rain, but dry conditions and the bone chilling cold that you guys have received, it just hurts man! 

 

Sorry for the rant, it's not like you guys can do anything about the weather, it just really really sucks out here. It's been hard for us in the Plains forum to get any topic started because of this, so that's why you see all of us in here a lot of the time. Speaking on behalf of my Nebraskan bros, we'd all REALLY appreciate it if you guys could update us on if there is any incoming weather for our area. I mean anything, like the LRC changing, La Nina/El Nino, you name it, if it's mentioned we'd all be stoked, because we're starving for precip, and anything to potentially keep our hopes up that change is coming would be awesome. You guys are the ones that got me into weather, and I've been looking up to most of you on the Great Lakes forum since westernusawx way back when. I'm still a rookie, and love hearing your guys' input especially when you mention us out here in the Plains. Just wanted to throw that out there!

 

Not complaining at all. I am sick of snow but I would like to see us break all time record. I am not big on huge seasonal snow totals. Just a few big ones. I really do fell bad for you guys out there. There talk of El Nino and warm one so I am expecting next winter to suck around here. Since jet-stream tends to be more zonal prehaps next winter you guys will get several CO lows.

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