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April 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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How does that saying go...will April showers bring May flowers???  I'm sure everyone is itching for Spring warmth to overcome this abysmal wet/chilly pattern.  When will it look and feel like mid Spring???  Is the wet pattern going to continue???  More severe wx on the horizon???  Will the LRC's long wave ridge show itself by mid month???

 

Here is what the CFSv2 is trending for the month of April.  I wouldn't put much stock into it as it has busted badly for the Upper Midwest/Lakes/NE.  Practically all the models did a bad job for the month of March.  Models have a tough time figuring out "shoulder" months and I think this month will be another difficult month to forecast.  

 

FWIW, the model has trended with somewhat of a trough near the PAC NW & over the Lakes/EC on its recent daily run.  IMO, this may lead to some unpleasant wx around these parts as blocking may be in the cards which has been a recent trend of late.

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201704.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20170330.201704.gif

 

 

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God I hope that's right, getting pretty sick of this gloomy weather with 40's. Everything is greening up quick though, which is a plus, just need some sunshine and warm temps to go with it!

Same here. Grass is greener on the other side??? Ha! Hope that other side starts showing up soon.

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Hey, look at the bright side, would you want to live in New England where they are expecting another 1-2 Feet of snow later this week??? #SpringSnow #NeverEnding

 

It's weird because the long (and late) season of 2013-14 didn't bother me half as much as these past 2 have. Because when it got cold, we got nice beautiful storms and a fresh blanket of plowable snow, not all these weeks of #forevershoulderseasonweather. I remember following all the record late snow reports as winter (very) slowly receded north across MI. The snow pile on Mackinaw Island in June and the iceberg filled bay at Marquette's beachfront on Memorial Day were krazy, but FUN! unlike this stuff we've seen this season.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It's weird because the long (and late) season of 2013-14 didn't bother me half as much as these past 2 have. Because when it got cold, we got nice beautiful storms and a fresh blanket of plowable snow, not all these weeks of #forevershoulderseasonweather. I remember following all the record late snow reports as winter (very) slowly receded north across MI. The snow pile on Mackinaw Island in June and the iceberg filled bay at Marquette's beachfront on Memorial Day were krazy, but FUN! unlike this stuff we've seen this season.

 

I remember seeing photos of ppl sun bathing on a glacier along the shores of the U.P.  Just crazy!  

 

You basically summed it up perfectly regarding the above. 

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The active pattern continues to roll on as we flip the calendar into the middle month of met Spring.  GFS/EURO both showing another wet system next Mon/Tue targeting the same areas which just got smacked with a lot of rain in the Midwest/Lakes.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017033100/gfs_apcpn_ncus_20.png

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What is that yellow star in the sky???  Oh ya, I think they call it the SUN!  It brings a smile to my face to see the sunshine finally.  It's a frosty, chilly start to the morning over here.  Temps this morning have jumped into the upper 30's.  Looking forward to my flight out of ORD later tonight and head to AZ and jump start into summer mode.  

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CanSIPS outlook for April...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017040100/cansips_T2ma_us_1.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017040100/cansips_apcpna_month_us_1.png

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Before this month is out, I think there will be one more large winter-like system just don't know where yet.  GEFS are looking real cold for April standards after the 10th which fits the LRC's cycle of a colder period till the 17th-18th.  Later half of the month may be a full blown torch for the Plains.

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Sunny and beautiful today, finally! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Before this month is out, I think there will be one more large winter-like system just don't know where yet.  GEFS are looking real cold for April standards after the 10th which fits the LRC's cycle of a colder period till the 17th-18th.  Later half of the month may be a full blown torch for the Plains.

If that torch means severe weather bring it on. If not then ew get it out.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Made it safe and sound.  Had some minor turbulence heading across the Plains last night from the system exiting the Rockies.  I was hoping to see some snow capped mountains at night but there was too much cloud cover.

 

So glad I left when I could.  Lower Lakes are poised to get drenched with more soaking rains this week.  Looks like there is a Hydrologic Outlook out for N IL/N IN.

 

 

 

Hydrologic OutlookHydrologic Outlook
ILC007-031-037-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-097-099-103-105-111-
141-197-201-INC007-073-089-111-127-030845-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago IL
345 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 /445 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017/

...Potential for Significant Rainfall This Week...

An active weather pattern is expected this week with more rain we do
not need. Current indications are for two strong low pressure areas
to affect the region, first on Monday through Monday night and
then on Wednesday into Thursday. Plenty of moisture will be
available to both of these storm systems, increasing the potential
for heavy rain rates and significant rainfall amounts with them.
For the first system, confidence is currently highest in rainfall
amounts approaching or exceeding one inch occurring along the
Interstate 55 corridor, though significant rain remains possible
area wide. For the mid to late week system, heavy rainfall is
possible area wide depending on the track of the low pressure
area. Between the two storms, at least parts of the area could
experience total rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches or more. Given
the saturated ground and ongoing minor river flooding from the
March 30th event, this potential heavy rain could result in areal
flooding of low lying areas and renewed sharp river rises.
 
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Yeah obv wont acculmate to that but it shows a pretty good phasing which allows enough cooling to change it to snow

Oh ya, no doubt.  I think the Euro showed a colder look for the same areas also.  Someone will likely see some mixed precip out of this.  Gosh, where the heck were these storms in the colder months???  Blocking all of a sudden decided to show up late season when it doesn't matter.

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I'm at the pool now, but I'm thinking the storm on Wed-Fri could justify a storm thread. 12z GFS showing quite the wind storm along with heavy rains and some snow for someone near the Lakes. I think this far out, models will struggle on where/how much snow will fall. Nonetheless, for April standards, this is a powerful storm system.

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The models are trending nw with the Monday system and se with the Wednesday/Thursday system.  Monday won't be a huge deal, but a few days ago most models had this system passing well south of the region.  Now they have rain spreading nw over much of Iowa.  As the first system grows more robust on the models, the midweek system hot on its heels is gradually getting shunted southward.  The nw half of Iowa gets little to nothing now.  The heavier stuff even misses me southeast, although I still get into the light to moderate defo rain.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS has been putting up a decent looking severe weather scenario for early next week in the past few runs. 8 days out so plenty of time for change. They had it over us in the 18z run yesterday, but today's 12z run puts the energy more over South Central IA/ North Central MO.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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0z nam with 12+ in eastern Iowa with 40 mph gusts

 

As of this evening's model runs, the NAM is the only model that still drops anything on areas from Cedar Rapids to southern Wisconsin.  This thing is shifting south big time.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Ive been gone last few days. Finally able to catch up in here. What depressing weather! Driving to work this morning i noticed quite a bit of water in ditches. Grass is really gonna be growing if it ever warms up!

I think this weekend it will start to grow fast, esp if those warmer temps invade from the Plains on Sat/Sun.  You have a shot at 70's on Sunday.

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Welp, Euro heading into Phase 1 in the extended...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/MAM/combined_image.png

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Today is the 61st anniversary of the April 3, 1956 F5 tornado that hit the metro Grand Rapids area. Here in west Michigan April 3rd was a warm Sunday. After a cold March (-5.5° and 8.4” of snow on the 24th ° and 3 more inches on the 28/29) the temperature shot up to 78° for a warm day. The storm crossed my area less than a half mile to the northwest of where I now live. In the storm there were 17 fatalities and over  340 were injured.

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Today is the 61st anniversary of the April 3, 1956 F5 tornado that hit the metro Grand Rapids area. Here in west Michigan April 3rd was a warm Sunday. After a cold March (-5.5° and 8.4” of snow on the 24th ° and 3 more inches on the 28/29) the temperature shot up to 78° for a warm day. The storm crossed my area less than a half mile to the northwest of where I now live. In the storm there were 17 fatalities and over 340 were injured.

Amazingly few fatalities for an F5. Thankfully it wasn't worse. And super wild that the F4 in '65 took almost the same path!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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April showers bring May flowers?! Not sure about that, how about snowshowers bring May no flowers. Hopefully, it gets better. I might be pushing 70F+ by Sunday. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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DVN mentioned we could approach 80 Sunday if clouds can hold off.  We hit 76 once in February, so it shouldn't be too difficult to reach that on April 9th with halfway favorable conditions.

 

The grass is quite green now after all the recent rain, so it will really take off with this weekend's warmth.  I need to get the mower ready.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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April showers bring May flowers?! Not sure about that, how about snowshowers bring May no flowers. Hopefully, it gets better. I might be pushing 70F+ by Sunday. :D

 

I have flowers blooming in my front garden (under the snow blanket this morning ofc). Going to Chicago this weekend, only in this April will it not be colder there due to the lake. Can't wait for the light at the end of this useless winter tunnel I stepped out to this morning. Feels like temp currently @ 24F in Marshall. This is the kind of rebound I can deal with, lol

 

Chicago 2-day. Tom left a bit too soon for all the fun - ha!

 

 

2017-04-06.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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