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April 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#51
St Paul Storm

Posted 09 April 2017 - 02:08 PM

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Just had the initial line of storms roll through. Not much lightning or wind, but SPC thinking a few surface based storms may fire this evening and become severe. Mesoscale discussion says a watch is possible. Winter weather advisory north of the TC metro. Dynamic cooling tomorrow afternoon may produce a few inches of snow here. We'll see.

#52
Hawkeye

Posted 09 April 2017 - 05:22 PM

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Warmest day of the year here today (78), and also the most humid (61).


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#53
Tom

Posted 09 April 2017 - 06:02 PM

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Spring/Summer Photo Contest Thread...

 

http://theweatherfor...-photo-contest/



#54
jaster220

Posted 10 April 2017 - 06:14 AM

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Who wants to see this next year???? One can only dream....

https://www.washingt...m=.f1e0ef7ff791

 

I believe the record depth for MI is 117" (iirc)


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#55
jaster220

Posted 10 April 2017 - 06:20 AM

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Mby's gotten all the rain that's missed MN peeps. Folks in my hood are dealing with flooded basements, including your's truly. First water in my basement since 2 wks of training T-storms in July of 2010 did the deed. I've had worse (remnants of Ike?), but it's never any fun tbh.

 

KRMY hit 26º Saturday morning about 7 am, and Sunday's high was 74º  Roller-coaster ride had been the theme all cold-season. Was nice to feel warm again! :D


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#56
Tom

Posted 10 April 2017 - 10:06 AM

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Severe storms are firing back home! 

 

LOT.N0Q.20170410.1804.gif

 

 

Meanwhile, this is my current situation...

 

 


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#57
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 April 2017 - 05:05 PM

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75F yesterday is a distant memory. Currently 33 and sleeting so heavily that the driveway and deck have a coating of ice on them. Shock to the system.
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#58
Tom

Posted 10 April 2017 - 05:56 PM

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75F yesterday is a distant memory. Currently 33 and sleeting so heavily that the driveway and deck have a coating of ice on them. Shock to the system.


Watching the Cubs home opener is giving me the chillzzz! Seeing their breath on TV makes tonight's warm evening here in AZ that much more enjoyable!
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#59
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 April 2017 - 06:02 PM

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Watching the Cubs home opener is giving me the chillzzz! Seeing their breath on TV makes tonight's warm evening here in AZ that much more enjoyable!


Yeah they said the temp dropped around 20F in an hour or so? Not sure if that's accurate. Either way the weather here and there is not pretty. My mom lives in Surprize. She says it's still 80 at this hour. Enjoy that!
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#60
Tom

Posted 10 April 2017 - 06:10 PM

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Yeah they said the temp dropped around 20F in an hour or so? Not sure if that's accurate. Either way the weather here and there is not pretty. My mom lives in Surprize. She says it's still 80 at this hour. Enjoy that!

The elusive pneumonia front...had that experience a few days before I left out here.  We hit a record high of 82F and crashed to 42F by the evening.  LOT had a write-up on that temp drop and I believe it was the 2nd or 3rd largest temp drop in the span of 2 hours (31F or so).  No bueno!


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#61
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 April 2017 - 06:45 PM

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Sleet changed over the moderate snow. Quarter sized flakes. Grass is d**n near covered. Starting to accumulate on the edges of the pavement. Wowzers.

#62
jaster220

Posted 11 April 2017 - 06:08 AM

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Marquette Mntns upgraded to a Storm Warning - up to 8"  But this is the place that can see snowstorms on Memorial Day, so no big deal, just another spring snow for them. April 7th, 1997 I had to blow out my drive of 7" in Traverse and there was still a "base" on which that fell so that snowmobilers were crossing the highways in groups that were up for weekend riding. This is by no means "late" for snow in NMI. Hopefully though, we're done (beyond a flurry) downstate.


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#63
Niko

Posted 11 April 2017 - 11:08 AM

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It finally feels like Spring outside as temps behave and trees are starting to slowly blossom. Still, bare trees.



#64
Tom

Posted 11 April 2017 - 02:50 PM

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Marquette Mntns upgraded to a Storm Warning - up to 8"  But this is the place that can see snowstorms on Memorial Day, so no big deal, just another spring snow for them. April 7th, 1997 I had to blow out my drive of 7" in Traverse and there was still a "base" on which that fell so that snowmobilers were crossing the highways in groups that were up for weekend riding. This is by no means "late" for snow in NMI. Hopefully though, we're done (beyond a flurry) downstate.

The U.P. cashed in on the snow!  Up to a Foot in some parts...

 

C9JfAowWsAAeK11.jpg



#65
Tom

Posted 12 April 2017 - 06:35 AM

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The latest JAMSTEC just teasing all of us for next winter...need the Nino to cool a bit more and we are in business!

 

 

ssta.glob.DJF2018.1apr2017.gif

 

temp2.glob.DJF2018.1apr2017.gif



#66
Tom

Posted 12 April 2017 - 08:14 AM

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CFSv2 jiving with the LRC's cooler phase to close out April and open into May.  Wet and cool may be the theme to close out the month.

 

C9OUySJXYAASlx4.jpg



#67
Tom

Posted 13 April 2017 - 06:58 AM

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Summer tease back home this Saturday!

 

nam3km_T2m_ncus_57.png



#68
Hawkeye

Posted 13 April 2017 - 06:59 AM

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I picked up 0.42" of rain last night.  With a dew in the 40s, the temp quickly dropped when the rain moved in.  There was a bit of light thunder, but mostly just cool spring rain.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#69
NEJeremy

Posted 13 April 2017 - 07:09 AM

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It looks like we're going back to a wet pattern the next week. Only have 2 days out of the next 7 with no rain chances. Temps look to stay nice though in the 60s and 70s, so at least it's not going to be cold.


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#70
Tom

Posted 13 April 2017 - 07:24 AM

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It looks like we're going back to a wet pattern the next week. Only have 2 days out of the next 7 with no rain chances. Temps look to stay nice though in the 60s and 70s, so at least it's not going to be cold.

Yup, the wet pattern seems to be the theme this Spring.  Wonder if this will continue as we head into May.



#71
jaster220

Posted 13 April 2017 - 09:50 AM

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CFSv2 jiving with the LRC's cooler phase to close out April and open into May.  Wet and cool may be the theme to close out the month.

 

C9OUySJXYAASlx4.jpg

 

Last May was cold 1st half. Everything else (except the March temp flip) has been similar this winter to last, so this would follow along, sadly.. :( 

 

Basement's finally drying out, so I guess I better enjoy that summer tease as you called it on Saturday!


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#72
Tom

Posted 14 April 2017 - 06:43 AM

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Haven't seen the SOI crash so hard in a long time...it was just +15.28 a couple days ago!

 

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 14 Apr 2017

Average for last 30 days 2.08

Average for last 90 days -1.53

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -34.68
 



#73
Hawkeye

Posted 14 April 2017 - 05:27 PM

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We reached the low 70s this afternoon with dews in the low 60s.  A line of thundershowers passed through this evening, dropping a half inch of rain.  Nearly all of our rain this spring has been long-duration light, so this was the heaviest downpour I've seen in a while.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#74
Tom

Posted 15 April 2017 - 06:49 AM

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Looks like some big boomers will fire up later this afternoon in the region...Hawkeye might finally get his strong storms!

 

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15.png

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_17.png

 

 

 

SPC has IA in the Slight Risk Category...

 

activity_loop.gif



#75
james1976

Posted 15 April 2017 - 07:52 AM

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Definitely summerlike out there this morning. Stayed about 60 overnight. Already up to 67. Kinda breezy.



#76
Hawkeye

Posted 15 April 2017 - 08:00 AM

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We never fell below the mid 60s overnight, easliy our warmest low temp of the year.  We are already in the low 70s despite a lot of clouds.  Regarding the storms later, we'll just have to wait and see what pops and where.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#77
james1976

Posted 15 April 2017 - 12:22 PM

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Training storms right now in N IA. Im on southern edge of it. No headlines ATM but we shall see how this plays out.

#78
Andrew NE

Posted 15 April 2017 - 02:06 PM

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Tornado on the ground 1 mile north of Dunbar, NE ATM

#79
Tom

Posted 15 April 2017 - 07:28 PM

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You guys in IA getting hit pretty good??

#80
Hawkeye

Posted 15 April 2017 - 08:08 PM

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Yeah, there has been a lot of rain and small hail this evening.  The first flash flood warning of the season was issued for my local area.  It has been thundering for hours.


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#81
Tom

Posted 15 April 2017 - 08:19 PM

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Yeah, there has been a lot of rain and small hail this evening.  The first flash flood warning of the season was issued for my local area.  It has been thundering for hours.

Glad you finally scored on some storms!  I love those stormy nights after a warm and delightful day.



#82
Hawkeye

Posted 16 April 2017 - 06:31 AM

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I picked up 2.23" of rain last evening.  We could use a break from the rain, but we won't be getting one.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#83
Tom

Posted 16 April 2017 - 06:36 AM

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I picked up 2.23" of rain last evening.  We could use a break from the rain, but we won't be getting one.

The deluge of above normal precip looks to continue in the extended...

 

C9iSlxEWsAAKZl5.jpg

 

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png



#84
Tom

Posted 16 April 2017 - 09:22 AM

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Happy Easter everyone!  Hope ya'll enjoy your day with family and friends!


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#85
OKwx2k4

Posted 16 April 2017 - 05:53 PM

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Man, if I had all the rain or even half of what models have shown here since October, I wouldn't be in a drought.

#86
Tom

Posted 16 April 2017 - 07:04 PM

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Man, if I had all the rain or even half of what models have shown here since October, I wouldn't be in a drought.


Worried about your area and points east if nothing of substance falls through May. By June, the heat dome will start building from TX on north/east and if the ground is dry...no bueno!

#87
jaster220

Posted 18 April 2017 - 11:05 AM

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Happy Easter everyone!  Hope ya'll enjoy your day with family and friends!

 

:D Hope your holiday was a good one as well. Enjoying some splendid 65-70º spring days. Lawns are getting cut, flowers are in bloom in gardens (and even along the freeways), summer birds are singing up a storm, and the flowering trees and bushes of every color are so full, it's simply stunning! Mid-April to Mid-May is by far my fave (4) weeks of the calendar year in Marshall and SWMI in general.


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#88
Tom

Posted 21 April 2017 - 06:17 AM

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00z EPS 6-10 day...

 

C98MBjaWAAEJ6ND.jpg


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#89
Tom

Posted 21 April 2017 - 02:17 PM

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12z EPS is wet, wet, wet....

 

C99r0K0WsAAOlIv.jpg



#90
gabel23

Posted 21 April 2017 - 05:28 PM

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This would be interesting......

Attached Files


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#91
Tom

Posted 22 April 2017 - 06:31 AM

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This would be interesting......

I believe the Euro is colder also and may be snowing for some parts of your region next week!


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#92
Tom

Posted 22 April 2017 - 07:15 AM

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Farmers may have to take advantage of the "window of opportunity" during these coming few days to plant their crops in the Midwest/Plains.  Not much has been planted thus far.  

 

C99r0K2XUAQLKc6.jpg


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#93
Niko

Posted 22 April 2017 - 12:52 PM

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Just came back from a 10day trip to New York City. Celebrated Easter there. Weather was kinda coolish with 50s for highs and 30s and 40s for lows. Only 2 full sunny days occurred the whole time I was there. The rest were mostly cloudy with peeks of sunshine. Overall, not bad weather. Had a great time. Hope everyone had a good Easter.


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#94
Thunder98

Posted 23 April 2017 - 12:37 PM

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There is a potential brief opportunity of snow in the forecast in Stevens Point, WI on Thursday!

 

Attached File  stevenspointwxforecast.PNG   458.74KB   1 downloads



#95
St Paul Storm

Posted 23 April 2017 - 12:55 PM

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This would be so epic. I say let's do it.

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#96
Tom

Posted 24 April 2017 - 06:10 AM

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00z EPS Week 2...

 

C-LAiswUwAEa3of.jpg

 

 

Too much of a good thing for our farmers...

 

C-KiU3NWsAI6sRc.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

The storm system for later this weekend is looking massive.  April looks to finish off with a Bang!


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#97
St Paul Storm

Posted 25 April 2017 - 05:32 AM

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Over the weekend the GEM was showing some big-time snows around these parts. Now the GFS is jumping on board. Still a little ways out but the possibility of a decent snow in late April/early May is increasing. Nothing like a fresh few inches of snow on the recently planted garden.

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#98
Tom

Posted 25 April 2017 - 06:32 AM

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00z Euro showing another strong cutter-like system in the Day 9-10 period.  What in the world has happened???

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_10.png

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_11.png

 

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_11.png


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#99
Tom

Posted 25 April 2017 - 06:46 AM

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Over the weekend the GEM was showing some big-time snows around these parts. Now the GFS is jumping on board. Still a little ways out but the possibility of a decent snow in late April/early May is increasing. Nothing like a fresh few inches of snow on the recently planted garden.

00z Euro on board!

 

C-QBJKAW0AER3Fp.jpg


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#100
St Paul Storm

Posted 25 April 2017 - 06:54 AM

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00z Euro on board!
 
C-QBJKAW0AER3Fp.jpg


Dang! I'm game for this, but it would cause me to go into scramble mode to save a lot of vegetation in the yard. Interesting times.
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