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April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

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#1
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 31 March 2017 - 12:22 AM

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This is most likely not going to be a repeat of 2016... but very curious how Spring is going to start in the PNW. No matter what our overall year looks like; April can go from both ends of the spectrum (April 2015 vs. 2016 was really a world of difference in some areas, including mine).

 

Some hints of cool downs or continued wet weather on models but as long as my winter is wrapping up I don't think I mind much of what's coming!


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

------------------------------------------------------------

(Personal Winter Totals since 2010)

'10-'11 = 58.20" (161% of normal)

'11-'12 = 49.00" (136% of normal)

'12-'13 = 16.70" (46% of normal)

'13-'14 = 9.05" (25% of normal)

'14-'15 = 2.90" (8% of normal)

'15-'16 = 54.45" (151% of normal)

'16-'17 = 63.00" (175% of normal)

 

Nov '16: 1.20" (30% of normal)

Dec '16: 11.10" (123% of normal)

Jan '17: 29.50" (246% of normal)

Feb '17: 12.90" (161% of normal)

Mar '17: 5.60" (224% of normal)

Apr '17: 2.70"

 

Nov '15: 4.00" (100% of normal) (Avg: 4.00")

Dec '15: 33.10" (367% of normal) (Avg: 9.00")

Jan '16: 10.75" (90% of normal) (Avg: 12.00")

Feb '16: 3.50" (43% of normal) (Avg: 8.00")

Mar '16: 3.10" (124% of normal) (Avg: 2.50")

Apr '16: T

 

OTHER WEATHER DATA

-------------------------------------------------------------

*Max 1 Day Snowfall: 12.40" (01/03/2017)*

*Max Snow Depth: 21.00" (01/07/2017)*, 18.00" (12/24/2015)

Max High (F): 101 (07/02/2013), 99 (07/02/2015)

Min High (F): 6 (12/08/2013), 7 (01/06/2017), 8 (01/05/2017)

Max Low (F): 63 (07/04/2015)

Min Low (F): -20 (12/08/2013), -19 (01/06/2017), -17 (01/05/2017)

Max Wind Gusts:

58-60 (10/15/2016), 60-65 (10/26/2016) ( 55+ MPH (09/12/2016), 67 MPH (01/19/2016), 65 MPH (02/06/2015), 63 MPH (02/05/2015), 62 MPH (02/17/2016),

56 MPH (02/08/2015), 55 MPH (12/03/2015), 58 MPH (10/25/2014), 55 MPH (12/30/2011), 58 MPH (09/04/2011), 54 MPH (03/13/2011), 58 MPH (02/15/2011), 60+ (02/14/2011)

T'storm Days: 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) - 1980-2015 Avg = 12 Days

Severe T'storms: 4 (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012)

Vicinity Severe T'storms: 9 (dates below)

09/04/2011, 09/12/2011, 08/12/2013, 08/22/2013, 08/04/2014, 08/05/2014, 06/09/2015, 07/05/2015, 07/09/2015

Earliest Warm-Core T'storm: (04/03/2016)

Latest Cold-Core T'storm (06/17/2016)

Latest <32 low (06/18/2014)

Latest "20's" low (06/11/2016) (28 degrees)


#2
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 April 2017 - 08:13 AM

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First reply will be by a person not from the Pacific Northwest.

Last year was strange. Pacific Northwest had April heat waves while Southern California stayed cool.
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#3
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 April 2017 - 08:17 AM

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First reply will be by a person not from the Pacific Northwest.

Last year was strange. Pacific Northwest had April heat waves while Southern California stayed cool.

 

Half of the month of April 2016 convection occurred in southern Oregon, and I average 0.7 t'storm days in April. lol It was a special case....


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

------------------------------------------------------------

(Personal Winter Totals since 2010)

'10-'11 = 58.20" (161% of normal)

'11-'12 = 49.00" (136% of normal)

'12-'13 = 16.70" (46% of normal)

'13-'14 = 9.05" (25% of normal)

'14-'15 = 2.90" (8% of normal)

'15-'16 = 54.45" (151% of normal)

'16-'17 = 63.00" (175% of normal)

 

Nov '16: 1.20" (30% of normal)

Dec '16: 11.10" (123% of normal)

Jan '17: 29.50" (246% of normal)

Feb '17: 12.90" (161% of normal)

Mar '17: 5.60" (224% of normal)

Apr '17: 2.70"

 

Nov '15: 4.00" (100% of normal) (Avg: 4.00")

Dec '15: 33.10" (367% of normal) (Avg: 9.00")

Jan '16: 10.75" (90% of normal) (Avg: 12.00")

Feb '16: 3.50" (43% of normal) (Avg: 8.00")

Mar '16: 3.10" (124% of normal) (Avg: 2.50")

Apr '16: T

 

OTHER WEATHER DATA

-------------------------------------------------------------

*Max 1 Day Snowfall: 12.40" (01/03/2017)*

*Max Snow Depth: 21.00" (01/07/2017)*, 18.00" (12/24/2015)

Max High (F): 101 (07/02/2013), 99 (07/02/2015)

Min High (F): 6 (12/08/2013), 7 (01/06/2017), 8 (01/05/2017)

Max Low (F): 63 (07/04/2015)

Min Low (F): -20 (12/08/2013), -19 (01/06/2017), -17 (01/05/2017)

Max Wind Gusts:

58-60 (10/15/2016), 60-65 (10/26/2016) ( 55+ MPH (09/12/2016), 67 MPH (01/19/2016), 65 MPH (02/06/2015), 63 MPH (02/05/2015), 62 MPH (02/17/2016),

56 MPH (02/08/2015), 55 MPH (12/03/2015), 58 MPH (10/25/2014), 55 MPH (12/30/2011), 58 MPH (09/04/2011), 54 MPH (03/13/2011), 58 MPH (02/15/2011), 60+ (02/14/2011)

T'storm Days: 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) - 1980-2015 Avg = 12 Days

Severe T'storms: 4 (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012)

Vicinity Severe T'storms: 9 (dates below)

09/04/2011, 09/12/2011, 08/12/2013, 08/22/2013, 08/04/2014, 08/05/2014, 06/09/2015, 07/05/2015, 07/09/2015

Earliest Warm-Core T'storm: (04/03/2016)

Latest Cold-Core T'storm (06/17/2016)

Latest <32 low (06/18/2014)

Latest "20's" low (06/11/2016) (28 degrees)


#4
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 April 2017 - 04:37 PM

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Kind of a crummy first day of April here.

Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#5
Jesse

Posted 01 April 2017 - 06:27 PM

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Gorgeous afternoon and early evening here after early day showers. Great way to start April.

#6
Geos

Posted 01 April 2017 - 06:47 PM

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A pretty much dry day here. Mostly cloudy with only 0.03" of rain early this morning.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
Total moisture 2017: 41.91", 12/04

 

Season low so far: 26°, 12/04
2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 2.2", 11/24

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#7
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 April 2017 - 07:25 PM

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High of 66 today, was clear earlier then slowly became partly cloudy.

 

I'd say decent start for April. The avg high is 53 this time of year.


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

------------------------------------------------------------

(Personal Winter Totals since 2010)

'10-'11 = 58.20" (161% of normal)

'11-'12 = 49.00" (136% of normal)

'12-'13 = 16.70" (46% of normal)

'13-'14 = 9.05" (25% of normal)

'14-'15 = 2.90" (8% of normal)

'15-'16 = 54.45" (151% of normal)

'16-'17 = 63.00" (175% of normal)

 

Nov '16: 1.20" (30% of normal)

Dec '16: 11.10" (123% of normal)

Jan '17: 29.50" (246% of normal)

Feb '17: 12.90" (161% of normal)

Mar '17: 5.60" (224% of normal)

Apr '17: 2.70"

 

Nov '15: 4.00" (100% of normal) (Avg: 4.00")

Dec '15: 33.10" (367% of normal) (Avg: 9.00")

Jan '16: 10.75" (90% of normal) (Avg: 12.00")

Feb '16: 3.50" (43% of normal) (Avg: 8.00")

Mar '16: 3.10" (124% of normal) (Avg: 2.50")

Apr '16: T

 

OTHER WEATHER DATA

-------------------------------------------------------------

*Max 1 Day Snowfall: 12.40" (01/03/2017)*

*Max Snow Depth: 21.00" (01/07/2017)*, 18.00" (12/24/2015)

Max High (F): 101 (07/02/2013), 99 (07/02/2015)

Min High (F): 6 (12/08/2013), 7 (01/06/2017), 8 (01/05/2017)

Max Low (F): 63 (07/04/2015)

Min Low (F): -20 (12/08/2013), -19 (01/06/2017), -17 (01/05/2017)

Max Wind Gusts:

58-60 (10/15/2016), 60-65 (10/26/2016) ( 55+ MPH (09/12/2016), 67 MPH (01/19/2016), 65 MPH (02/06/2015), 63 MPH (02/05/2015), 62 MPH (02/17/2016),

56 MPH (02/08/2015), 55 MPH (12/03/2015), 58 MPH (10/25/2014), 55 MPH (12/30/2011), 58 MPH (09/04/2011), 54 MPH (03/13/2011), 58 MPH (02/15/2011), 60+ (02/14/2011)

T'storm Days: 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) - 1980-2015 Avg = 12 Days

Severe T'storms: 4 (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012)

Vicinity Severe T'storms: 9 (dates below)

09/04/2011, 09/12/2011, 08/12/2013, 08/22/2013, 08/04/2014, 08/05/2014, 06/09/2015, 07/05/2015, 07/09/2015

Earliest Warm-Core T'storm: (04/03/2016)

Latest Cold-Core T'storm (06/17/2016)

Latest <32 low (06/18/2014)

Latest "20's" low (06/11/2016) (28 degrees)


#8
TT-SEA

Posted 01 April 2017 - 08:29 PM

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My daughter this evening at Myrtle Edwards Park in Seattle... the c-zone stayed north which was nice.   

 

17621794_1280785175323021_49023865202231


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#9
Phil

Posted 01 April 2017 - 09:28 PM

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Here's an interesting tidbit: With an average temperature of 34F, March was the coldest month of the winter in Boston, easily beating out December, January, and February. That has never happened in recorded history.

Also, the coldest recorded NH temperature occurred just a few weeks ago, well after climo, alongside the coldest 850mb temperature ever recorded in March anywhere on the planet.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#10
epiceast

Posted 02 April 2017 - 06:31 AM

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#first60watch

 

.CLIMATE...The last time Missoula, Montana had a high temperature

of 60 degrees or more was on October 9th, 2016, or 174 days ago
as of April 1st. This ties the longest period of time between last
and first 60 degree days in the 124 year climate history of
Missoula. We are likely to break this record today since it is
very unlikely Missoula will reach 60 degrees today. This also
moves us into a tie for 12th latest first 60 degree day in climate
history for Missoula, the latest of which occurred on April 19th,
1945. We should see our first 60 degree day this week, likely on
either Wednesday or Thursday if the forecast holds. This would
firmly place 2017 within the top 10 latest first 60 degree days on
record. 


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#11
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2017 - 08:10 AM

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Here's an interesting tidbit: With an average temperature of 34F, March was the coldest month of the winter in Boston, easily beating out December, January, and February. That has never happened in recorded history.

Also, the coldest recorded NH temperature occurred just a few weeks ago, well after climo, alongside the coldest 850mb temperature ever recorded in March anywhere on the planet.


Catastrophic global cooling continues.

#12
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2017 - 11:06 AM

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Contrast between this day in 2016 and today...

 

4/2/2016:

12495106_974403069294568_540039874787937

 

4/2/2017:

20170402_120039.jpg


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#13
epiceast

Posted 02 April 2017 - 11:12 AM

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Contrast between this day in 2016 and today...

 

4/2/2016:

12495106_974403069294568_540039874787937

 

4/2/2017:

20170402_120039.jpg

Both look pretty nice, not much contrast. I guess one is a perfect bluebird summer day, and the other is a regular spring day captured during a sun break?



#14
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2017 - 11:17 AM

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Cherry blossoms attracting lots of people at the UW in Seattle today:

 

cherry5.png



#15
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2017 - 11:18 AM

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Both look pretty nice, not much contrast. I guess one is a perfect bluebird summer day, and the other is a regular spring day captured during a sun break?

 

The trees were much more leafed out last year... and the grass was already close to summer form.   

 

It has been partly to mostly sunny at times for the last couple hours here.



#16
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2017 - 11:19 AM

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Both look pretty nice, not much contrast. I guess one is a perfect bluebird summer day, and the other is a regular spring day captured during a sun break?


You can't tell how different the trees look?

#17
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2017 - 11:21 AM

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12z runs say we remain coolish and unsettled after a warm and dry break on Tuesday/Wednesday.

#18
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2017 - 11:22 AM

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12z runs say we remain coolish and unsettled after a warm and dry break on Tuesday/Wednesday.

 

ECMWF shows a solid band of rain passing through on Wednesday afternoon.   



#19
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2017 - 11:29 AM

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Scott Sistek's blog on the ridiculous rain of late... Seattle breaks more rainfall records.   Becoming the norm this decade.

 

http://komonews.com/...rainfall-record



#20
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2017 - 11:29 AM

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ECMWF shows a solid band of rain passing through on Wednesday afternoon.


Maybe for up there. Looks like a 65-ish day with maybe some rain later on down here.

Although we will be in the Bellingham area Tuesday-Friday this week. Definitely looking like a wetter pattern up there.

#21
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2017 - 11:33 AM

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Maybe for up there. Looks like a 65-ish day with maybe some rain later on down here.

Although we will be in the Bellingham area Tuesday-Friday this week. Definitely looking like a wetter pattern up there.

 

 

ECMWF shows mostly mid to upper 50s down there on Wednesday... maybe a few spots on the east side touching 60.   Clouds thicken early and rain is moving in by mid afternoon during the peak heating time.



#22
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2017 - 11:35 AM

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ECMWF shows mostly mid to upper 50s down there on Wednesday... maybe a few spots on the east side touching 60. Clouds thicken early and rain is moving in by mid afternoon during the peak heating time.


You would have a better idea on Euro details with the maps you have access to. It must be way out of phase with the GFS then, which has been toying with the idea of a push toward 70 on Wednesday for PDX.

Granted the GFS has been toning that down in recent runs, though. Probably playing catch up.

#23
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2017 - 11:39 AM

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Hard to believe PDX's year to date high is still only 61. It's been awhile since we have gotten this deep into the spring with that low of a max. Even 2008 and 2011 had seen warmer at this point.

#24
epiceast

Posted 02 April 2017 - 11:39 AM

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You can't tell how different the trees look?

Yea I didn't realize that was the point of tim's post. I thought it was all about the rain & the clouds.



#25
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 April 2017 - 11:57 AM

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Scott Sistek's blog on the ridiculous rain of late... Seattle breaks more rainfall records.   Becoming the norm this decade.

 

http://komonews.com/...rainfall-record

Reading through this and related linked articles, I was somewhat surprised to see forecasts calling for another hot summer in the west.

 

http://komonews.com/...tter-spring-too



#26
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2017 - 12:00 PM

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Reading through this and related linked articles, I was somewhat surprised to see forecasts calling for another hot summer in the west.

http://komonews.com/...tter-spring-too


The pattern we have been seeing with south to southwesterly flow and troughing staying just offshore has me thinking it's possible. There will come a point in a month or so that this 500mb setup becomes a fairly warm one for us, if it persists.
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#27
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2017 - 12:01 PM

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Reading through this and related linked articles, I was somewhat surprised to see forecasts calling for another hot summer in the west.

http://komonews.com/...tter-spring-too


I am not feeling it... cold springs don't normally turn into hot summers. I will believe when I see it.

#28
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2017 - 12:05 PM

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I am not feeling it... cold springs don't normally turn into hot summers. I will believe when I see it.


This hasn't been a classic cold spring IMO. Most of the west was above average in March, including 75% of Oregon. Cool anoms were confined to northwestern Oregon and Washington.

Right now April isn't looking shockingly cool either. Probably a little below average the first week thanks mostly to cooler days, in what looks to be a continued SW flow driven wetter than average pattern. Places to the south and east of here in the Rockies, SW and intermountain west will continue to torch ahead of stubborn offshore troughing.

#29
Phil

Posted 02 April 2017 - 01:03 PM

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Catastrophic global cooling continues.


Lol, well the system is preparing for it. Note the growing radiative deficit at the poles, surplus in the tropics, and the equatorward contraction of the z-cell budget/convective integral since 2012.

In laymans terms, the pattern to watch for in summer is a Baffin Bay/Hudson Bay vortex, +NAO, and cooling NATL. This is a circulation regime that reduces the transport of heat above 60N, cools the polar domain, and most importantly tightens the meridional thermal gradient, which is the key for the required
circulatory re-alignment.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#30
Phil

Posted 02 April 2017 - 01:05 PM

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Contrast between this day in 2016 and today...

4/2/2016:
12495106_974403069294568_540039874787937

4/2/2017:
20170402_120039.jpg


You use a craftsman mower. :lol:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#31
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 April 2017 - 01:40 PM

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A little hail shower just past through here. 49F.

#32
Front Ranger

Posted 02 April 2017 - 02:21 PM

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I am not feeling it... cold springs don't normally turn into hot summers. I will believe when I see it.

 

Way too soon to say this will be a cold spring. 4/2.

 

And as Jesse pointed out, March wasn't really cold, more just wet.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#33
Phil

Posted 02 April 2017 - 02:33 PM

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Way too soon to say this will be a cold spring. 4/2.

And as Jesse pointed out, March wasn't really cold, more just wet.


I think a wet summer is favored. Whether it's cool/wet, or just plain wet, will depend on the longitude of the NPAC trough, which depends on the longitude of the Pacific convection and polar mode. Unless the IPWP rapidly collapses and focuses convection on the dateline, a persistently ridgy western summer will be difficult to obtain, IMO.

The polar mode/NAM state (which is crucial in determining the antecedent NE-Pacific streamflow) hinges on the IO/ATL convection and particularly the strength of the IO/Asian monsoon, as well as the +QBO influence on the z-cells and subtropics, which sort of ties into the IO as well.

If we fall into a -NAM summer regime, that increases the chances of a cooler western summer. If we fall into a +NAM summer regime, that increases the chances of a warmer western summer, but will cool the Arctic (and the entire NH above 30N), relative to the tropics, ahead of next winter, which is a recipe for an exciting long-period wave train.

FWIW, we haven't seen a +NAM/+NAO summer since 2013.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#34
Phil

Posted 02 April 2017 - 02:47 PM

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The final stratospheric warming occurs this week, which will flip the polar upper level circulation into its summer state until next fall. This is a crucial period for setting up the summer circulation, as the entire system state reorganizes during this time. Monitor the tropics and mid/high latitude wave train closely over the next 4 weeks for clues to the nature of the warm season exchange between the tropics and mid/high latitudes.

u_65N_10hpa.png

u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#35
Phil

Posted 02 April 2017 - 02:56 PM

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Last spring, the final warming occurred very early, during the first few weeks in March. The next four weeks featured a profound shift in the tropical convection and global circulations away from their midwinter state, which allowed for myself and others to predict a gradual move towards a cooler/-PNA regime through boreal summer and autumn.

Will the system offer similar clues this year? We'll have to wait and see, as sometimes the signals following the final warning are subtle and require some digging to unmask.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#36
James Jones

Posted 02 April 2017 - 02:58 PM

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I think a wet summer is favored. Whether it's cool/wet, or just plain wet, will depend on the longitude of the NPAC trough, which depends on the longitude of the Pacific convection and polar mode. Unless the IPWP rapidly collapses and focuses convection on the dateline, a persistently ridgy western summer will be difficult to obtain, IMO.

The polar mode/NAM state (which is crucial in determining the antecedent NE-Pacific streamflow) hinges on the IO/ATL convection and particularly the strength of the IO/Asian monsoon, as well as the +QBO influence on the z-cells and subtropics, which sort of ties into the IO as well.

If we fall into a -NAM summer regime, that increases the chances of a cooler western summer. If we fall into a +NAM summer regime, that increases the chances of a warmer western summer, but will cool the Arctic (and the entire NH above 30N), relative to the tropics, ahead of next winter, which is a recipe for an exciting long-period wave train.

FWIW, we haven't seen a +NAM/+NAO summer since 2013.

 

There's really no such thing as a wet summer around here, outside of one or two outliers. A couple of well placed convective showers can easily be the difference between a "dry" and "wet" summer at a given station. June and September can get decent precip totals but that's due more to late starting summers and early starting falls - the wettest combined July + August on record at PDX for example still had less than 5" of total precip.


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#37
Phil

Posted 02 April 2017 - 03:10 PM

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There's really no such thing as a wet summer around here, outside of one or two outliers. A couple of well placed convective showers can easily be the difference between a "dry" and "wet" summer at a given station. June and September can get decent precip totals but that's due more to late starting summers and early starting falls - the wettest combined July + August on record at PDX for example still had less than 5" of total precip.


Sorry, should have clarified. I'm referring to the larger scale moisture advection regime over the entirety of northwest North America, as determined by the upstream circulation over the Pacific.

I expect a largely zonal/GOA trough pattern to open the warm season, which would increase the full column moisture transport into northwest North America, and deliver more precipitation to the region as a whole. Whatever your local microclimates do is beyond my pay grade.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#38
WeatherArchive

Posted 02 April 2017 - 03:12 PM

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He's right Phill.  Down here in Oregon once you go south of Portland the summers are really dry so a *wet* summer may mean a few decent showers unless your talking 1983 kinda wet.



#39
Phil

Posted 02 April 2017 - 03:17 PM

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He's right Phill. Down here in Oregon once you go south of Portland the summers are really dry so a *wet* summer may mean a few decent showers unless your talking 1983 kinda wet.


See my clarification above. I'm referring to the macro-scale pattern tendencies that will be in play across the entire northwest North American continental domain, not the rainfall total in your backyard.

Generally speaking, a stronger Pacific jet stream/GOA trough increases moisture advection and precipitation across most of northwest North America, regardless of the time of year.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#40
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2017 - 07:12 PM

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We're in a pretty chilly airmass right now. 850s down to the -6 to -7c range.

Could be some sub-freezing lows west side tonight.

#41
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2017 - 07:14 PM

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Sorry, should have clarified. I'm referring to the larger scale moisture advection regime over the entirety of northwest North America, as determined by the upstream circulation over the Pacific.

I expect a largely zonal/GOA trough pattern to open the warm season, which would increase the full column moisture transport into northwest North America, and deliver more precipitation to the region as a whole. Whatever your local microclimates do is beyond my pay grade.


Sounds like the recipe for a lot of humidity*



*not relative to D.C. but what is normal for us. ;)
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#42
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 April 2017 - 07:24 PM

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We're in a pretty chilly airmass right now. 850s down to the -6 to -7c range.

Could be some sub-freezing lows west side tonight.

I was thinking that's possible. 850's are only around -3 or -4C up here but it's already down to 40F.

#43
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2017 - 07:29 PM

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I was thinking that's possible. 850's are only around -3 or -4C up here but it's already down to 40F.


Strange that 850s are warmer up there.

#44
Kayla

Posted 02 April 2017 - 08:02 PM

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We're in a pretty chilly airmass right now. 850s down to the -6 to -7c range.

Could be some sub-freezing lows west side tonight.

 

I'm only seeing -2c to -3c over PDX currently... 

 

850mb_sf.gif?1448231970125


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 56.2"
Largest snowfall: 10.2"
Coldest high: 17ºF
Coldest low: 1ºF

Sub-zero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#45
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2017 - 08:25 PM

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I'm only seeing -2c to -3c over PDX currently...

850mb_sf.gif?1448231970125


Well color me wrong then. The 18z has them dropping to -7c by 09z (1am). I was going off of that.

#46
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 April 2017 - 08:45 PM

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That trough next weekend looks nice. Could see some flakes.

Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#47
TT-SEA

Posted 03 April 2017 - 05:03 AM

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That trough next weekend looks nice. Could see some flakes.

 

00Z ECMWF was much warmer than the GFS for next weekend:

 

ps2png-atls14-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8



#48
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 03 April 2017 - 05:53 AM

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Low of 27 this morning. Chilly.

Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#49
Jesse

Posted 03 April 2017 - 07:17 AM

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PDX plunged to 35 for the 7am reading. Score!

Low of 33 here with some light frost.

#50
epiceast

Posted 03 April 2017 - 07:18 AM

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Might get a dusting of snow in the next hour here...