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April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

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#51
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 03 April 2017 - 07:27 AM

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PDX plunged to 35 for the 7am reading. Score!

Low of 33 here with some light frost.


SLE hit 32 on the hourly obs
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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#52
Jesse

Posted 03 April 2017 - 07:40 AM

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SLE hit 32 on the hourly obs

 

So much scoring.



#53
Jesse

Posted 03 April 2017 - 07:40 AM

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I'm just really glad that this is looking nothing like the nightmare of last April so far.

 

A few seasonably mild days coming up, then more nourishing rainfall later this week maybe followed by another chilly trough next weekend.



#54
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 03 April 2017 - 07:44 AM

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I was thinking that's possible. 850's are only around -3 or -4C up here but it's already down to 40F.

 

Must have got cold up there last night. There was frost when I woke up this morning, looks like we dropped down to 37F, but low lying areas were closer to freezing.



#55
ShawniganLake

Posted 03 April 2017 - 07:47 AM

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Must have got cold up there last night. There was frost when I woke up this morning, looks like we dropped down to 37F, but low lying areas were closer to freezing.

29F. Frosty and icy after yesterday afternoons rain.

#56
WeatherArchive

Posted 03 April 2017 - 10:14 AM

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See my clarification above. I'm referring to the macro-scale pattern tendencies that will be in play across the entire northwest North American continental domain, not the rainfall total in your backyard.

Generally speaking, a stronger Pacific jet stream/GOA trough increases moisture advection and precipitation across most of northwest North America, regardless of the time of year.

Is that what causes more monsoon/SE thunderstorm activity across the far west with unusual lightning over the cascades/foothills or is this mostly a beefed up marine flow pattern your describing?  Marine flow on steroids? 

 

Marine flow prohibits thunderstorms but is kinder towards firefighters as humidity remains above the threshold 28 percent leading to less fire bans,sawmill closures.etc



#57
Jesse

Posted 03 April 2017 - 11:21 AM

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12z Euro much cooler overall for the weekend and beyond. Great to see.

#58
Jesse

Posted 03 April 2017 - 05:08 PM

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So little discussion!

Beautiful drive up I-5 today. We are getting food in Lynwood at the moment. Crisp sunshine and 52.

#59
Deweydog

Posted 03 April 2017 - 05:13 PM

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Just crossed the Interstate Bridge and it was sunny. Sunny on both sides too.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#60
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 03 April 2017 - 06:49 PM

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50/27 today

Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#61
Jesse

Posted 03 April 2017 - 08:19 PM

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Already down to 40 up here in northwestern Whatcom county.

#62
luminen

Posted 03 April 2017 - 08:27 PM

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Glorious fall spring day here, with bright sunshine and 50F and light winds. Sunday was pretty windy and random people were remarking how cold it felt, and it did feel pretty cold to be honest. Moss seems to be more plentiful...possibly thanks in part to the grass that's been abused over the past few months.

 

Anyway, not really looking forward to more rain but what can you do.



#63
TT-SEA

Posted 03 April 2017 - 08:31 PM

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Some discussion earlier about Wednesday being a warm day.   The ECMWF abandoned that idea many runs ago and now all of the models have done so... looks like an all day light rain event now.   Then we have lots and lots of very important "nourishing" rain coming once it starts up again.   The trees need nourishing... they are dying of thirst.    :lol:

 

That is lipstick on a pig stuff right now.  



#64
BLI snowman

Posted 03 April 2017 - 08:50 PM

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Personally I'm pretty jazzed about the threat of some more 50-55 degree highs. Been too long.
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#65
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 03 April 2017 - 08:57 PM

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Some discussion earlier about Wednesday being a warm day.   The ECMWF abandoned that idea many runs ago and now all of the models have done so... looks like an all day light rain event now.   Then we have lots and lots of very important "nourishing" rain coming once it starts up again.   The trees need nourishing... they are dying of thirst.    :lol:

 

That is lipstick on a pig stuff right now.  

 

Looking forward to it, I haven't seen a hint of drought so far this spring. However, we're going to be dangerously close to the rain shadow, which could spoil the fun.

 

nam3km_apcpn_nwus_20.png



#66
Deweydog

Posted 03 April 2017 - 09:26 PM

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Some discussion earlier about Wednesday being a warm day. The ECMWF abandoned that idea many runs ago and now all of the models have done so... looks like an all day light rain event now. Then we have lots and lots of very important "nourishing" rain coming once it starts up again. The trees need nourishing... they are dying of thirst. :lol:

That is lipstick on a pig stuff right now.


Oh Timbo!!!

You and your za-za-za-zany brand of comedy.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#67
TT-SEA

Posted 03 April 2017 - 09:45 PM

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Looking forward to it, I haven't seen a hint of drought so far this spring. However, we're going to be dangerously close to the rain shadow, which could spoil the fun.

 

 

Its been raining almost every day for 2.5 months down here.   I will be vigilant for any sign of drought.   Could be tomorrow... we just don't know.   

 

I was in the office today and drought was the main topic of conversation with the sun breaking out for a couple hours this afternoon.  People are getting nervous.   But it looks like relief is on the way tomorrow evening and Wednesday.



#68
ShawniganLake

Posted 03 April 2017 - 10:00 PM

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There have been a few brave water skiers out on the lake the past couple of days. Some people just can't wait for summer I guess. There was still some ice on the lake just about 3 weeks ago.

#69
Jesse

Posted 04 April 2017 - 08:27 AM

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Pretty incredible how the warm and dry weather for the middle part of this week fell apart. Rain is supposed to start again up here by this afternoon.

#70
TT-SEA

Posted 04 April 2017 - 08:29 AM

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Pretty incredible how the warm and dry weather for the middle part of this week fell apart. Rain is supposed to start again up here by this afternoon.

 

ECMWF was leaning that way for many days... we just cannot get a run of 3-4 dry days at all this year.   That almost always happens by this point.   Even in the worst years.

 

The persistence of the precipitation is probably even more noteworthy than the record rainfall amounts.  

 

Looks like rain each day for the next 8-10 days as well.    Might be unprecedented in terms of number days with rain (at least up here) since late January.  



#71
jcmcgaffey

Posted 04 April 2017 - 09:48 AM

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ECMWF was leaning that way for many days... we just cannot get a run of 3-4 dry days at all this year. That almost always happens by this point. Even in the worst years.

The persistence of the precipitation is probably even more noteworthy than the record rainfall amounts.

Looks like rain each day for the next 8-10 days as well. Might be unprecedented in terms of number days with rain (at least up here) since late January.

For sure. For example this month so far SEA only has .08"of rain to start April but most of the area nearby has had a lot more rain due to a persistent convergence through the whole weekend. I felt like every time I drove somewhere to do something with the kids that thing would kick up out of nowhere and follow us around.

#72
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 04 April 2017 - 09:50 AM

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Only 0.06" of rain so far this month here. Should pick up a bit late this week though. Still looks like possibly some snow Sunday or Monday morning. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#73
TT-SEA

Posted 04 April 2017 - 09:53 AM

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For sure. For example this month so far SEA only has .08"of rain to start April but most of the area nearby has had a lot more rain due to a persistent convergence through the whole weekend. I felt like every time I drove somewhere to do something with the kids that thing would kick up out of nowhere and follow us around.

 

I had the same feeling on both days this past weekend.   Although I knew it was going to happen... it was still very annoying.    



#74
Jesse

Posted 04 April 2017 - 10:07 AM

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I had the same feeling on both days this past weekend. Although I knew it was going to happen... it was still very annoying.


That's called paranoia. There are psychiatrists that can help.
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#75
Phil

Posted 04 April 2017 - 10:21 AM

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So, about that CA perma-drought..

71593595-EEE5-4B9A-B5EA-E8A31480AF5A_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#76
Jesse

Posted 04 April 2017 - 10:28 AM

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So, about that CA perma-drought..

71593595-EEE5-4B9A-B5EA-E8A31480AF5A_zps


Sadly a lot of damage had already been done. Up to 70% tree mortality in parts of the Sierras.
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#77
happ

Posted 04 April 2017 - 10:48 AM

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So, about that CA perma-drought..

71593595-EEE5-4B9A-B5EA-E8A31480AF5A_zps

 

The L means "long-term" drought but I am getting excited by the SST's off South America


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#78
stuffradio

Posted 04 April 2017 - 10:49 AM

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Only 0.06" of rain so far this month here. Should pick up a bit late this week though. Still looks like possibly some snow Sunday or Monday morning. 

I'm already at 1" of rain this month.



#79
TT-SEA

Posted 04 April 2017 - 11:04 AM

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No pattern change in sight... rainy SW flow goes on forever.  



#80
jcmcgaffey

Posted 04 April 2017 - 11:10 AM

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That's called paranoia. There are psychiatrists that can help.

I'll take referrals:)


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#81
jcmcgaffey

Posted 04 April 2017 - 11:19 AM

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I had the same feeling on both days this past weekend.   Although I knew it was going to happen... it was still very annoying.    

My wife and I were certain it was following us:

-Wednesday did a half day at work and took the family up to La Conner and of course a conv zone set up all evening and then dropped south as we drove south all the way home and parked at home just north of downtown Seattle. 

- Thurs & Friday stayed home and convergence stayed in place over north Seattle. 

- Saturday visited family in Bellevue and convergence set up just south of I90 most of the day. 

- Sunday visited in laws in Renton/Maple Valley and conv set up most of the day down there.



#82
epiceast

Posted 04 April 2017 - 12:08 PM

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I'll take referrals:)

You guys would established a very good client-therapist relationship really fast, considering you both really like rain!



#83
jcmcgaffey

Posted 04 April 2017 - 12:36 PM

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You guys would established a very good client-therapist relationship really fast, considering you both really like rain!

We'll start a support group.



#84
jcmcgaffey

Posted 04 April 2017 - 12:39 PM

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60deg Seattle mark in jeopardy!  Currently 59.  Rain is about to happen which should cool the air down a bit but it might be too late.


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#85
iFred

Posted 04 April 2017 - 01:19 PM

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The L means "long-term" drought but I am getting excited by the SST's off South America

 

One of those few times in my life I actually find myself rooting for an El Nino.


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#86
TT-SEA

Posted 04 April 2017 - 01:27 PM

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60deg Seattle mark in jeopardy! Currently 59. Rain is about to happen which should cool the air down a bit but it might be too late.


60 here now with filtered sun.

#87
TT-SEA

Posted 04 April 2017 - 02:04 PM

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SEA finally hits 60.   

 

Ends up one week short of the latest date ever.  



#88
seattleweatherguy

Posted 04 April 2017 - 02:05 PM

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Fees great today before the rain hits

#89
Jesse

Posted 04 April 2017 - 02:15 PM

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60 at SEA!

Probably still in the top ten latest.

#90
Jesse

Posted 04 April 2017 - 02:16 PM

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SEA finally hits 60.

Ends up one week short of the latest date ever.


Just saw this. You beat me to it. ;)

#91
Phil

Posted 04 April 2017 - 02:59 PM

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One of those few times in my life I actually find myself rooting for an El Nino.


I'm hoping for a west-based warm-neutral. Haven't seen vodka cold around here since 2014/15.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#92
TT-SEA

Posted 04 April 2017 - 03:13 PM

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Significant warming in the Indian Ocean over the last week...

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

Cold anomalies there are disappearing...

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Phil... does this change anything in your forecast?   You said a cold IO was significant.  



#93
Phil

Posted 04 April 2017 - 03:24 PM

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Significant warming in the Indian Ocean over the last week...

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Cold anomalies there are disappearing...

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png


Phil... does this change anything in your forecast? You said a cold IO was significant.


No, because the IO/ATL is still the coldest tropical domain and remains the focus for subsidence. The recent warming is a reflection of the seasonal cycle as it relates to the monsoonal cell primers.

Take the difference from the global mean anomaly..this is how the climate system "sees" things.

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#94
TT-SEA

Posted 04 April 2017 - 03:27 PM

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No, because the IO/ATL is still the coldest tropical domain and remains the focus for subsidence. The recent warming is a reflection of the seasonal cycle as it relates to the monsoonal cell primers.

Take the difference from the global mean anomaly..this is how the climate system "sees" things.
 

 

Thanks... good information.  



#95
TT-SEA

Posted 04 April 2017 - 04:14 PM

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Officially 61 at SEA today.



#96
luminen

Posted 04 April 2017 - 04:30 PM

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49F and light rain.  <_<



#97
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 04 April 2017 - 05:23 PM

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Its been raining almost every day for 2.5 months down here.   I will be vigilant for any sign of drought.   Could be tomorrow... we just don't know.   

 

I was in the office today and drought was the main topic of conversation with the sun breaking out for a couple hours this afternoon.  People are getting nervous.   But it looks like relief is on the way tomorrow evening and Wednesday.

 

Wish I could send the rain shadow your way, I can see a patch of menacing clear sky to the south east of here.



#98
ShawniganLake

Posted 04 April 2017 - 05:38 PM

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Wish I could send the rain shadow your way, I can see a patch of menacing clear sky to the south east of here.

raining moderately here now. Going to be a wet night up this way.

#99
jcmcgaffey

Posted 04 April 2017 - 08:42 PM

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I do enjoy when it is warm enough (like tonight) to crack the window open and listen to the rain fall while going to bed.

#100
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 04 April 2017 - 08:43 PM

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raining moderately here now. Going to be a wet night up this way.

 

Picking up a bit of rain here now, looking at the radar we're sitting pretty close to the edge of it.