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April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Sorry, should have clarified. I'm referring to the larger scale moisture advection regime over the entirety of northwest North America, as determined by the upstream circulation over the Pacific.

 

I expect a largely zonal/GOA trough pattern to open the warm season, which would increase the full column moisture transport into northwest North America, and deliver more precipitation to the region as a whole. Whatever your local microclimates do is beyond my pay grade.

Sounds like the recipe for a lot of humidity*

 

 

 

*not relative to D.C. but what is normal for us. ;)

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We're in a pretty chilly airmass right now. 850s down to the -6 to -7c range.

 

Could be some sub-freezing lows west side tonight.

 

I'm only seeing -2c to -3c over PDX currently... 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/850mb/850mb_sf.gif?1448231970125

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I'm only seeing -2c to -3c over PDX currently...

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/850mb/850mb_sf.gif?1448231970125

Well color me wrong then. The 18z has them dropping to -7c by 09z (1am). I was going off of that.

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That trough next weekend looks nice. Could see some flakes.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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That trough next weekend looks nice. Could see some flakes.

 

00Z ECMWF was much warmer than the GFS for next weekend:

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls14/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls14-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-ylkYdQ.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Low of 27 this morning. Chilly.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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PDX plunged to 35 for the 7am reading. Score!

 

Low of 33 here with some light frost.

SLE hit 32 on the hourly obs

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'm just really glad that this is looking nothing like the nightmare of last April so far.

 

A few seasonably mild days coming up, then more nourishing rainfall later this week maybe followed by another chilly trough next weekend.

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See my clarification above. I'm referring to the macro-scale pattern tendencies that will be in play across the entire northwest North American continental domain, not the rainfall total in your backyard.

 

Generally speaking, a stronger Pacific jet stream/GOA trough increases moisture advection and precipitation across most of northwest North America, regardless of the time of year.

Is that what causes more monsoon/SE thunderstorm activity across the far west with unusual lightning over the cascades/foothills or is this mostly a beefed up marine flow pattern your describing?  Marine flow on steroids? 

 

Marine flow prohibits thunderstorms but is kinder towards firefighters as humidity remains above the threshold 28 percent leading to less fire bans,sawmill closures.etc

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50/27 today

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Glorious fall spring day here, with bright sunshine and 50F and light winds. Sunday was pretty windy and random people were remarking how cold it felt, and it did feel pretty cold to be honest. Moss seems to be more plentiful...possibly thanks in part to the grass that's been abused over the past few months.

 

Anyway, not really looking forward to more rain but what can you do.

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Some discussion earlier about Wednesday being a warm day.   The ECMWF abandoned that idea many runs ago and now all of the models have done so... looks like an all day light rain event now.   Then we have lots and lots of very important "nourishing" rain coming once it starts up again.   The trees need nourishing... they are dying of thirst.    :lol:

 

That is lipstick on a pig stuff right now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some discussion earlier about Wednesday being a warm day.   The ECMWF abandoned that idea many runs ago and now all of the models have done so... looks like an all day light rain event now.   Then we have lots and lots of very important "nourishing" rain coming once it starts up again.   The trees need nourishing... they are dying of thirst.    :lol:

 

That is lipstick on a pig stuff right now.  

 

Looking forward to it, I haven't seen a hint of drought so far this spring. However, we're going to be dangerously close to the rain shadow, which could spoil the fun.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017040400/nam3km_apcpn_nwus_20.png

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Some discussion earlier about Wednesday being a warm day. The ECMWF abandoned that idea many runs ago and now all of the models have done so... looks like an all day light rain event now. Then we have lots and lots of very important "nourishing" rain coming once it starts up again. The trees need nourishing... they are dying of thirst. :lol:

 

That is lipstick on a pig stuff right now.

Oh Timbo!!!

 

You and your za-za-za-zany brand of comedy.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Looking forward to it, I haven't seen a hint of drought so far this spring. However, we're going to be dangerously close to the rain shadow, which could spoil the fun.

 

 

Its been raining almost every day for 2.5 months down here.   I will be vigilant for any sign of drought.   Could be tomorrow... we just don't know.   

 

I was in the office today and drought was the main topic of conversation with the sun breaking out for a couple hours this afternoon.  People are getting nervous.   But it looks like relief is on the way tomorrow evening and Wednesday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Pretty incredible how the warm and dry weather for the middle part of this week fell apart. Rain is supposed to start again up here by this afternoon.

 

ECMWF was leaning that way for many days... we just cannot get a run of 3-4 dry days at all this year.   That almost always happens by this point.   Even in the worst years.

 

The persistence of the precipitation is probably even more noteworthy than the record rainfall amounts.  

 

Looks like rain each day for the next 8-10 days as well.    Might be unprecedented in terms of number days with rain (at least up here) since late January.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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ECMWF was leaning that way for many days... we just cannot get a run of 3-4 dry days at all this year. That almost always happens by this point. Even in the worst years.

 

The persistence of the precipitation is probably even more noteworthy than the record rainfall amounts.

 

Looks like rain each day for the next 8-10 days as well. Might be unprecedented in terms of number days with rain (at least up here) since late January.

For sure. For example this month so far SEA only has .08"of rain to start April but most of the area nearby has had a lot more rain due to a persistent convergence through the whole weekend. I felt like every time I drove somewhere to do something with the kids that thing would kick up out of nowhere and follow us around.
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Only 0.06" of rain so far this month here. Should pick up a bit late this week though. Still looks like possibly some snow Sunday or Monday morning. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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For sure. For example this month so far SEA only has .08"of rain to start April but most of the area nearby has had a lot more rain due to a persistent convergence through the whole weekend. I felt like every time I drove somewhere to do something with the kids that thing would kick up out of nowhere and follow us around.

 

I had the same feeling on both days this past weekend.   Although I knew it was going to happen... it was still very annoying.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So, about that CA perma-drought..

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/71593595-EEE5-4B9A-B5EA-E8A31480AF5A_zpskynwlao2.jpg

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So, about that CA perma-drought..

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/71593595-EEE5-4B9A-B5EA-E8A31480AF5A_zpskynwlao2.jpg

Sadly a lot of damage had already been done. Up to 70% tree mortality in parts of the Sierras.

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