April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

I've already got my AC blasting!

I have my heater blasting. I see icebergs in the distance too!

[bainbridgekid]

Facebook just reminded me that a year ago today I went boating and swimming and I realized that SEA hit 89 degrees in the middle of 4 straight days in the 80's from the 17th-20th.

 

The sun is as strong now as in late August though.

 

Really puts it in perspective that we have had trouble buying 60 this April.

[Front Ranger]

Another terribly depressing spring day in Seattle. I'm sure North Bend is even worse.

 

[TT-SEA]

Another terribly depressing spring day in Seattle. I'm sure North Bend is even worse.

 

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Gee... thanks for the update!   I guess it has not rained almost daily since the end of January.    Already .50 for the day here.   But I am sure that sun break coming will be awesome.   

 

Looking for a nice run of dry days.   It happens almost every year in March and April.   Not even close this year.   

[TT-SEA]

And don't stray too far from downtown... because its raining just south of there.

 

[Phil]

FWIW, the ECMWF monthlies look like the JMA. So that, along with analog guidance, may suggest a cooler scenario is likely overall, through at least July, with an eastward-displaced GOA trough and strong UV200 jet across the NPAC.

[stuffradio]

FWIW, the ECMWF monthlies look like the JMA. So that, along with analog guidance, may suggest a cooler scenario is likely overall, through at least July, with an eastward-displaced GOA trough and strong UV200 jet across the NPAC.

Is it going to be a classic wait until July 4 for the persistent ridge to come for us?

[Phil]

They absolutely nailed our warm winter

TWC forecast looks like a modoki Niño composite. Obviously not going to happen like that.

[Phil]

Is it going to be a classic wait until July 4 for the persistent ridge to come for us?

At this point, I'm not sure there will be any persistent ridging this summer in the PNW, at least relative to 500mb climo. Unless something changes dramatically in the tropics, I don't see how it could possibly happen underneath the normal intraseasonal fluctuations.

[stuffradio]

Poor agriculture year http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2017/04/why-arent-my-seeds-growing.html

[Front Ranger]

And don't stray too far from downtown... because its raining just south of there.

 

 

In some spots rain, others sun. Variety!

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In some spots rain, others sun. Variety!

 

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You would think it was spring. 

[Front Ranger]

You would think it was spring. 

 

Yes, but not a cold spring or a warm spring. Raining constantly, except when it's not. 

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro hold energy back a bit longer into Saturday, resulting in warmer temps and later arrival of precip.

 

Also looks like it wants to head more into actual cool troughing and NW flow towards the end.

[TT-SEA]

In some spots rain, others sun. Variety!

 

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Yep... its been a beautiful 2.5 months! A little rain but incredible amounts of sun as well. Silly us for mentioning the unusual wet and cloudiness this spring. And you proved it from endlessly dry Denver.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like we picked a good time for Charleston/Savannah trip.  

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls20-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-KLNCB_.png

[BLI snowman]

I heard thunder today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we picked a good time for Charleston/Savannah trip.  

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls20-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-KLNCB_.png

 

Beware of Zika

[TT-SEA]

Beware of Zika

 

No more kids for us!  

[CTA]

In some spots rain, others sun. Variety!

 

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Dude, you can cherry pick a sunny pic; but no 2 ways about it that this spring has been awful!  Has to be top 3 most depressing in my 47 years.  I am guessing that there were at least 2 other crapfests like this one (maybe from the 70's??) hence my "top 3", but I can't specifically think of a year.  I know Tim complains a lot, but this year it is definitely justified.  EVERYONE I talk to comments how awful it has been.  I'm ready to move! 

[Jesse]

WAAAAAAAHHHH!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

Dude, you can cherry pick a sunny pic; but no 2 ways about it that this spring has been awful!  Has to be top 3 most depressing in my 47 years.  I am guessing that there were at least 2 other crapfests like this one (maybe from the 70's??) hence my "top 3", but I can't specifically think of a year.  I know Tim complains a lot, but this year it is definitely justified.  EVERYONE I talk to comments how awful it has been.  I'm ready to move! 

 

I have heard more random and unsolicited complaints about this spring than I can ever remember.    Maybe 2011 was close but I think there was more sun that year... just colder.  

 

There is no way to sugarcoat 69 out of 77 days with rain.  Its pretty much awful to everyone except some hardcore anti-warmth people on this forum.  

 

Jesse HATES complaining about miserable weather but leads the charge whenever its warm.    The complete opposite of almost everyone you meet in real life.  

[Jesse]

Had a pretty decent thunderstorm move over Central Vancouver around 12:30 today. Several lighting strikes and some hail.

[Jesse]

It would be great if a bunch of people moved from the PNW and left more room for those who actually appreciate it here. Sadly almost all of those threats are ultimately hollow.

[TT-SEA]

It would be great if a bunch of people moved from the PNW and left more room for those who actually appreciate it here. Sadly almost all of those threats are ultimately hollow.

 

To have rain on 90% of the days for 3 months is about as unusual as the summer of 2015.    This is unprecedented.  

 

Be nice if some people who want rain and cold all the time move up to Juneau and make room for the rest of us who would love to have just the normal number of dry days based on our local climate.  

[TT-SEA]

It would be great if a bunch of people moved from the PNW and left more room for those who actually appreciate it here. Sadly almost all of those threats are ultimately hollow.

 

Also be nice if there was a mass exodus and there were abandoned homes and buildings everywhere.    Complete collapse of the economy too.   

 

You cheer for misery because you want other people to be miserable and leave.   Its sort of strange. 

[Jesse]

To have rain on 90% of the days for 3 months is about as unusual as the summer of 2015. This is unprecedented.

 

Be nice if some people who want rain and cold all the time move up to Juneau and make room for the rest of us who would love to have just the normal number of dry days based on our local climate.

Normal is just an aggregate of extremes.

 

What I'm trying to say is....I'm going to move.

[Jesse]

You cheer for misery because you want other people to be miserable and leave. Its sort of strange.

Not at all. But if people really hate it here because it rains they should move somewhere that makes them happy, lest their loud and persistent cries deafen the rest of us.

[TT-SEA]

Normal is just an aggregate of extremes.

 

What I'm trying to say is....I'm going to move.

 

You have said you are moving to a climate with less rain and more cold, sunny weather.  

 

And yes... normal is the aggregate of extremes.   Remember that when this incredibly wet period is averaged out.  

[Front Ranger]

Looks like we picked a good time for Charleston/Savannah trip.  

 

 

Any time the past 2.5 months would have been good. 

[TT-SEA]

Not at all. But if people really hate it here because it rains they should move somewhere that makes them happy, lest their loud and persistent cries deafen the rest of us.

 

I think complaining about normal weather is sort of silly.   It is what it is.

 

But the summer of 2015 and the spring of 2017 are pretty extreme in certain regards and warrant complaining to some degree.   Not going to change anything... but its obviously therapeutic because I hear people doing it all the time over the last few months.  I have not heard a single person say this has been a nice spring.  

 

I heard many people say how nice it was last summer.   

[Front Ranger]

Dude, you can cherry pick a sunny pic; but no 2 ways about it that this spring has been awful!  Has to be top 3 most depressing in my 47 years.  I am guessing that there were at least 2 other crapfests like this one (maybe from the 70's??) hence my "top 3", but I can't specifically think of a year.  I know Tim complains a lot, but this year it is definitely justified.  EVERYONE I talk to comments how awful it has been.  I'm ready to move! 

 

It's always sunny in Seattle!

[Front Ranger]

I have heard more random and unsolicited complaints about this spring than I can ever remember.    Maybe 2011 was close but I think there was more sun that year... just colder.  

 

There is no way to sugarcoat 69 out of 77 days with rain.  Its pretty much awful to everyone except some hardcore anti-warmth people on this forum.  

 

Jesse HATES complaining about miserable weather but leads the charge whenever its warm.    The complete opposite of almost everyone you meet in real life.  

 

So every one of those 69 days was a complete loss because it rained some at some point?

[TT-SEA]

Any time the past 2.5 months would have been good. 

 

Better now.   I don't want windy, chilly weather during the trip and they had periods of that during February and March which is normal.

 

Our weather is the same... rain every day.   But the weather there will be delightfully warm and sunny now.   And the timing is looking even better based on the ECMWF.   

[TT-SEA]

So every one of those 69 days was a complete loss because it rained some at some point?

 

Most of them... yes.   

 

You can play this game all you want but it does not change anything.

[FroYoBro]

I think I am finally starting to understand some of the fun personality quirks on here after reading this forum for the past 10 years or so. 

 

 

It seems like some people dislike rain more than others, is that correct? 

[Jesse]

Jesse HATES complaining about miserable weather but leads the charge whenever its warm. The complete opposite of almost everyone you meet in real life.

Maybe because people are incredibly boring and predictable in their preferences.

 

A moderate, rainy climate is a good thing in many ways. Like Phil has said, rain is an ecosystem's payday. There is a reason the Native Americans who were here before us lived like kings. Then later on pioneers rushed here by the tens of thousands. This is a land of abundance. Some of us can see that. But then you get a bunch of transplants who will throw a tantrum if we are anything less than California-lite year round. It just seems silly. We're a climate that is heavily influenced by the Ocean and is near or above 45N. That's just how it is.

[TT-SEA]

I think I am finally starting to understand some of the fun personality quirks on here after reading this forum for the past 10 years or so. 

 

 

It seems like some people dislike rain more than others, is that correct? 

 

Just extremely persistent rain over long periods of time which is far outside the norm for our climate.

 

The winter of 2015-16, and the spring of 2017 fit that description.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe because people are incredibly boring and predictable in their preferences.

 

A moderate, rainy climate is a good thing in many ways. Like Phil has said, rain is an ecosystem's payday. There is a reason the Native Americans who were here before us lived like kings. Then later on pioneers rushed here by the tens of thousands. This is a land of abundance. Some of us can see that. But then you get a bunch of trapnsplants who will throw a tantrum of we are anything but California-lite year round. It just seems silly. We're a climate that is heavily influenced by the Ocean and is near or above 45N. That's just how it is.

 

You are really misrepresenting the issue with this spring.   

 

It is not normal for our region to have rain on 90% of the days for 3 months... not even in the dead of winter.  

 

I don't see anyone throwing a tantrum because we don't have CA weather.  That would be stupid.  I see people annoyed that we are having Juneau weather in terms of persistent rain.   That is all.  

 

If we had 20 more dry days in the last 3 months... the environment would be just a lush and bountiful.  

[Jesse]

I get it Tim. I would have been fine with more dry days this spring too. As I'm sure you would have been ok with more cool days in summer 2015. It just is what it is.