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April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Nothing can. No west coast ridging until mid 2018, and by then we'll all be deep in the next ice age anyway.

You wanna go, motherf**ker? :)

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Troughalicious.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3B8F01E4-713F-4C59-A1DA-9850E98723EA_zpsgagsvzxq.jpg

 

Looks snowy for here!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Should be in the bag. Will tie the record for latest "first" occurrence ever three ways. Must be something about 4/18.

 

We landed in a tie with 4/18/1950 for the 64 degree benchmark...and passed 4/18/1945 & 4/18/1950 for the 65 degree benchmark (1945 hit 64 on the 15th, but didn't top 65 until the 18th). 

 

This is now the latest PDX has gone into a calendar year without hitting 65. We got it! 

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We landed in a tie with 4/18/1950 for the 64 degree benchmark...and passed 4/18/1945 & 4/18/1950 for the 65 degree benchmark (1945 hit 64 on the 15th, but didn't top 65 until the 18th).

 

This is now the latest PDX has gone into a calendar year without hitting 65. We got it!

Good info! That is pretty impressive. Right now it's looking like we'll extend the record by two days, since Friday is looking like a good bet for 65+.

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I was very close to having a thunderstorm yesterday evening around 8pm. I guess another day...

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Have you found this spring to be annoyingly wet?   :)

 

Is water wet?

 

As a farmer that can barely walk in the fields without getting stuck let alone move equipment, we are nearly 2 months behind last year on nearly all measures.  It is one thing to be behind on temp/GDD's, but the waterlogged soils is a bigger problem.  I don't know how this ends unless the rain stops for more than a week. 

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12Z ECMWF shows insane amounts of rain next week. We are due!

 

Unbelievable pattern.

Eventually the flow turns more northwesterly as the trough shifts inland, though. That will be a nice change.

 

I thought you were out of town next week anyway?

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Eventually the flow turns more northwesterly as the trough shifts inland, though. That will be a nice change.

 

I thought you were out of town next week anyway?

Starting mid-week... cannot come soon enough. I just want it to dry out.

 

And I am sure the current runs are too aggressive in bringing the trough inland.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Starting mid-week... cannot come soon enough.

 

And I am sure the current runs are too aggressive in bringing trough inland.

I don't know. There is good ensemble support for this, and we are due for a pattern change. Been in the same general pattern for over two months now.

 

It would be nice if the NW flow pattern stuck with us all warm season. I think that would be something we could both get behind. :)

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Is water wet?

 

As a farmer that can barely walk in the fields without getting stuck let alone move equipment, we are nearly 2 months behind last year on nearly all measures. It is one thing to be behind on temp/GDD's, but the waterlogged soils is a bigger problem. I don't know how this ends unless the rain stops for more than a week.

I have a friend that has a large dairy farm over here. He has some equipment stuck in the fields. He had to abandon it for now, maybe figured early May before he gets to it.
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12z GEM doesn't support the EURO

 

In which way?? Both look very wet for the PNW and for here over the next 10 days.

 

ECMWF

i2hjsiv - Imgur.jpg

GEM

vqORvEP - Imgur.jpg

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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NWS Portland, NWS Seattle, and I'm guessing all other local NWS sites have updated their home pages to be uniform throughout the country.  The old format was so much better.   :(

 

The other regions except the west switched long ago... I agree that the old format was much better.

 

Where is the local climate section?   The link takes you to the national site.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The other regions except the west switched long ago... I agree that the old format was much better.

 

Where is the local climate section?   The link takes you to the national site.  

I haven't found it yet.  The two items that I miss the most is the dropdown menu that had local forecasts available for individual locations around the region, also I liked the "last 30 products" dropdown.  At least we now have a link to check out the current drought conditions.  Looks like we are in dire need of more precip.

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NWS Portland, NWS Seattle, and I'm guessing all other local NWS sites have updated their home pages to be uniform throughout the country. The old format was so much better. :(

I agree

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SEA needs .56 to break the record for the wettest Feb-Apr period ever.  

 

Its in the bag looking at the models over the next 10 days.

 

I assume this will be the wettest Feb-Apr ever in terms of total precipitation and number of days with rain.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Cold pool off our coast continues to warm... so does the Indian Ocean.

 

7-day change...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Record latest 70 in Portland (airport era) is May 5th...so assuming Friday doesn't make it to 70 (a good bet that it won't) and judging by the last couple days of model runs we may make a run at that record also. However this time of year things can change a lot even inside 7 days...so it's impossible to state any odds. Getting into early May any decent ridge even if transient can result in 70s.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Looks like the seasonal models are starting to cave to the analog averages. Most are now continuing the GOA/west coast trough into July, with the upper level jet remaining extended in the long run in response to the dateline subsidence and EPAC/ATL convection.

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I have a friend that has a large dairy farm over here. He has some equipment stuck in the fields. He had to abandon it for now, maybe figured early May before he gets to it.

 

We have a dairy as well.  One of my rules is don't get the biggest piece of equipment stuck.  So we have been very careful so far, tiptoeing out only on select fields so far.  We won't get to our wetter ground for at least a month presuming the current pattern keeps up.  Part of it is you can't work the heavier soils when they are wet even if you can get out there.

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Looks like parts of the Central and Eastern Gorge saw some thunderstorms this evening.

They did, my brother said he had thunder in The Dalles.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like the seasonal models are starting to cave to the analog averages. Most are now continuing the GOA/west coast trough into July, with the upper level jet remaining extended in the long run in response to the dateline subsidence and EPAC/ATL convection.

 

Perhaps, but I think those models tend to heavily favor persistence as timing moves up. Wouldn't put too much stock in it.

A forum for the end of the world.

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