April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Phil do you buy a warmer to hot compared to normal summer some are projecting?

No.

 

I could see a scenario where August and September try run warmer, but then again, I've underestimated the UV200 jet all year to this point.

[crf450ish]

Spring is always the quietest time of year on this forum.

 

And count me among those who think this spring has been boring as hell, aside from the windstorm a couple Fridays ago. At the risk of sounding like Tim, it's been basically nothing but constant gloomy SW flow with little to no temperature variation. 2008 was an enjoyable and interesting spring, this one is not.

I will have to agree. The most exciting thing about this spring has been watching the massive piles of snow melt and waiting for the ground to stiffen up. It was soggy for weeks after the snow started melting. There is STILL water seeping from the ground in the form of runoff.

[TT-SEA]

I'd like to see lake Missoula busting lose and carving out the scab lands.

 

I have thought the same thing... that would be incredible to witness.  

[Phil]

I think if there are any warm months in store this summer, they will be August and/or September. I'm having a hard time finding reasons for a flip to warm anytime soon, and I've been looking very intently for it.

[TT-SEA]

I think if there are any warm months in store this summer, they will be August and/or September. I'm having a hard time finding reasons for a flip to warm anytime soon, and I've been looking very intently for it.

 

Who gives a crap about warm or cold... when will the pattern change so its not raining every single day?

[TT-SEA]

What the hell is this?   January??

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042100/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_50.png

[Phil]

Who gives a crap about warm or cold... when will the pattern change so its not raining every single day?

The upper level jet will retract if/when convection initiates between the dateline and 150W, at the expense of the Indonesian convection centered around 120E and the EPAC convection as well.

 

In other words, the West Pacific/Niño-4 SSTAs needs to warm substantially, along with the *western* Indian Ocean, while the East Pacific and Indonesian SSTAs need to cool.

 

This is a circulation state we haven't seen in decades.

[TT-SEA]

The upper level jet will retract if/when convection initiates between the dateline and 150W, at the expense of the Indonesian domain centered around 120E.

 

In other words, the West Pacific/Niño-4 SSTAs needs to warm substantially, along with the western Indian Ocean, while the East Pacific and Indonesian SSTs need to cool.

 

OK... an unlikely series of long-term events need to happen to stop the daily rain.   But yet it happens every year.   Even in 1993.  

[Phil]

OK... an unlikely series of long-term events need to happen to stop the daily rain. But yet it happens every year. Even in 1993.

I didn't say anything about daily rain. Just the strong upper level Pacific jet. Conditions at the surface/lower troposphere will moderate by late May/June, even if the upper level jet remains stronger than average.

[TT-SEA]

I didn't say anything about daily rain. Just the strong upper level Pacific jet. Conditions at the surface/lower troposphere will moderate by late May/June, even if the upper level jet remains stronger than average.

 

Gotcha.

[Phil]

What the hell is this? January??

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042100/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_50.png

It's something different, that's for sure. I can't remember the last time we saw the Hadley Cells in a contracted state for more than two weeks at a time. Has made a huge difference for California already.

[Tenochtitlan]

It's something different, that's for sure. I can't remember the last time we saw the Hadley Cells in a contracted state for more than two weeks at a time. Has made a huge difference for California already.

What do you mean by contracted state? Do you mean that they're farther south than they usually are this time of year? (Sorry I don't know much about large-scale atmospheric circulation and wanna learn more)

[Phil]

What do you mean by contracted state? Do you mean that they're farther south than they usually are this time of year? (Sorry I don't know much about large-scale atmospheric circulation and wanna learn more)

Overall they've contracted equatorward and intensified to some extent, relative to the post-1998 average in that regard.

 

This could be viewed as a more El Niño-ish background state that's developed in recent years, as far as the tropics are concerned. Generally speaking, we've observed an increased heating of the equatorial oceans relative to the polar oceans over the last decade, and this has accelerated over the last five years or so.

[TT-SEA]

Sunday afternoon...

 

 

Monday morning...

 

 

Monday afternoon...

 

 

Tuesday morning...

 

 

Tuesday afternoon...

 

 

Wednesday morning...

 

 

Highs in the 40s on Monday and Tuesday as well for many areas.

[WeatherArchive]

What are the odds of a more *thundery* spring then usual?  Are we in right pattern? as a couple of times the NWS has or had hinted at possible thunder from cold core instability but it failed to materialized other then heavy showers and one time a bit of hail.

[TT-SEA]

Rare sunny April morning here...

 

[stuffradio]

Yesterday it reached 120 in my greenhouse. I had to open it up a bit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just crazy. January was nice!

 

I've had more rain than that since New Years. Twice as much in January, but more every month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 31 this morning.

[stuffradio]

I've had more rain than that since New Years. Twice as much in January, but more every month.

Me too. I had somewhere between 16-18" of rain in March, for example, and I'm at between 7-8" of rain this month.

[Kayla]

Seems like 70 at PDX is going to be a stretch today. My money is on 68.

[TT-SEA]

I've had more rain than that since New Years. Twice as much in January, but more every month.

I don't care about totals nearly as much as the number of dry days. Its been insane in that regard. This is also not at my house... its a local weather station.

[Kayla]

I don't care about totals nearly as much as the number of dry days. Its been insane in that regard. This is also not at my house... its a local weather station.

 

Go out and enjoy that sunshine today!

 

Could be 36º and rainy like it is here today.

[epiceast]

Rare sunny April morning here...

 

You might string two decent ones in a row!

[TT-SEA]

Go out and enjoy that sunshine today!

 

Could be 36º and rainy like it is here today.

At the office. Timing is everything and this sucks!

[Jesse]

At the office. Timing is everything and this sucks!

Aren't you basically like self employed? Just leave.

[TT-SEA]

Aren't you basically like self employed? Just leave.

 

Not self employed... trying to leave.

[Front Ranger]

Just arrived at PDX. Spectacular views of the mountains flying in. I've always said, the solitary volcanic peaks here are easily more beautiful than most of the Rockies.

[Tenochtitlan]

Just arrived at PDX. Spectacular views of the mountains flying in. I've always said, the solitary volcanic peaks here are easily more beautiful than most of the Rockies.

Yeah, volcanoes are special. What's your favorite? I think mine is Mt. Baker.

 

I do think it's cool how some cities in the Mountain West are so close to tall mountains, like Salt Lake City, whereas Seattle is sort of far from the Cascades in comparison.

[FroYoBro]

Not self employed... trying to leave.

If you don't mind me asking, what do you do? I have never really seen you talk about work. 

[TT-SEA]

If you don't mind me asking, what do you do? I have never really seen you talk about work. 

 

Software consulting.

[stuffradio]

Software consulting.

It seems to be what the majority of us do here, sort of

[TT-SEA]

It seems to be what the majority of us do here, sort of

 

One form or another.  

[Jesse]

It seems to be what the majority of us do here, sort of

Always had you pegged as more of a vegetable consultant.

[Jesse]

Just wanted to mention that I really enjoyed some of the climate posts last night. Definitely some fascinating reading.

[Jesse]

The 12z Euro shows a ridiculously strong and persistent jet stream for this time of year, aimed right at us most of the time. I imagine the temporarily contracted Hadley Cells are playing a role?

[TT-SEA]

The 12z Euro shows a ridiculously strong and persistent jet stream for this time of year, aimed right at us most of the time. I imagine the temporarily contracted Hadley Cells are playing a role?

What happened to quiet NW flow?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

59 at PDX. 70 may be a stretch

[SilverFallsAndrew]

East winds surfacing in Clark Co. will PDX benefit and see a temp jump?!

[stuffradio]

Always had you pegged as more of a vegetable consultant.

That's my night job. By day I'm a web developer.