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April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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So much for the rain, there was a brief period of rain earlier but it rolled through pretty quickly. Another day with more of the same, mixed sun/clouds.

Poor you!  We were at a 5K walk today and the complaints about the excessive rain were universal. I think there are millions of people who would prefer the weather in your tiny nice weather bubble!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think the relative lack of growth has been due to cooler temperatures more than dryness. Last Spring was incredibly warm and dry....there is no way you were wetter last spring than this one. Although the conditions in the Olympic rain shadow can always be surprising relative to the rest of the west side, I suppose.

 

I think it also has to do with number of really warm days... maybe more than the overall departure.   Even one really warm day can push everything forward quickly... but without any really warm days its been very slow and steady this year.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Stick it to him!

 

I don't doubt him... its just a testament to the terribly persistent pattern for the last 3 months.    Record rain across most of the region and a tiny bubble of drought in the SW flow rain shadow.    I am also very jealous.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Poor you! We were at a 5K walk today and the complaints about the excessive rain were universal. I think there are millions of people who would prefer the weather in your tiny nice weather bubble!

Maybe you should move back to Minnesota.

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Maybe you should move back to Minnesota.

 

Nahh... this will pass.   

 

Back-to-back wettest rainy seasons (Oct-Apr) in history.   And the wettest 2-year period in Seattle history.  

 

And blowing away the record for most number of days with rain in the rainy season in Seattle with 8 wet days still left until May.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nahh... this will pass.

 

Back-to-back wettest rainy seasons (Oct-Apr) in history. And the wettest 2-year period in Seattle history.

 

And blowing away the record for most number of days with rain in the rainy season in Seattle with 8 wet days still left until May.

Or maybe your region is entering a wetter era? This pattern isn't some statistical fluke. There's a story behind the numbers. ;)

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Or maybe your region is entering a wetter era? This pattern isn't just some statistical fluke. :)

 

And CA will be in drought forever like my relatives there told me for the last few years.    Things change... ebb and flow.  

 

2015 was a very wet year here statistically and yet its remembered for the drought.   

 

Conversely... 1993 was a very dry year statistically and yet is remembered as being very wet.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And CA will be in drought forever like my relatives there told me for the last few years. Things change... ebb and flow.

 

2015 was a very wet year here statistically and yet its remembered for the drought.

 

Conversely... 1993 was a very dry year statistically and yet is remembered as being very wet.

Just looking back at the very old records, seems like dry years used to be pretty common a century or so ago. Most of the 20's were much drier than anything we have seen at Shawnigan Lake in decades. I'm sure if we saw a string of 1920 like dry years, the screams of "Climate Change" would be deafening.
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Just looking back at the very old records, seems like dry years used to be pretty common a century or so ago. Most of the 20's were much drier than anything we have seen at Shawnigan Lake in decades. I'm sure if we saw a string of 1920 like dry years, the screams of "Climate Change" would be deafening.

Not if they were as cold overall as the 1920s as well. Good luck with that one.

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Poor you!  We were at a 5K walk today and the complaints about the excessive rain were universal. I think there are millions of people who would prefer the weather in your tiny nice weather bubble!

 

We just can't catch a break in the Olympic shadow. Totally clear this evening, looks like more sun tomorrow. So far the winter lag has held back significant signs of drought but it would be a nightmare if we switch to an equally dry regional pattern in May/June after getting shadowed the entire wet pattern.

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We just can't catch a break in the Olympic shadow. Totally clear this evening, looks like more sun tomorrow. So far the winter lag has held back significant signs of drought but it would be a nightmare if we switch to an equally dry regional pattern in May/June after getting shadowed the entire wet pattern.

 

And the models show that once again tomorrow afternoon and evening we get to sit inside watching it dump rain in SW flow (like this afternoon) while yearning to be outside with memories of our one single nice day this past Friday.

 

Meanwhile... you enjoy pleasant weather while its raining all around you.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042300/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_4.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not if they were as cold overall as the 1920s as well. Good luck with that one.

Maybe, the means in the 1920's were probably within a degree or 2 of where they are now.

Considering the local authority recently had a water conservation campaign that declared "drought is the new normal", I have a feeling a 1925 repeat would be eye opening. Just 27" of precip that year with a monthly max high temp set for the month of June ( still stands to this day).

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00Z GFS shows it turning nicer on Thursday into the weekend.   A trend like that has not happened for a long time.    We leave Wednesday.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We just can't catch a break in the Olympic shadow. Totally clear this evening, looks like more sun tomorrow. So far the winter lag has held back significant signs of drought but it would be a nightmare if we switch to an equally dry regional pattern in May/June after getting shadowed the entire wet pattern.

Your winter precip isn't actually below average is it? I work lots in the cedar hill/ Mackenzie area and the ground is moist, soggy in low lawn areas on all 6 properties. That's getting pretty close to the full rainshadowed area.
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Maybe, the means in the 1920's were probably within a degree or 2 of where they are now.

Considering the local authority recently had a water conservation campaign that declared "drought is the new normal", I have a feeling a 1925 repeat would be eye opening. Just 27" of precip that year with a monthly max high temp set for the month of June ( still stands to this day).

I agree that people can be a little myopic when it comes to what conditions actually were like in the distant past, especially since old record are continually tampered with by agencies with agendas it seems.

 

Although if anything, I would say that a wetter climate here, especially in the cold season, would be more of a sign of a warming globe. From what I can tell conditions here were cooler and drier on the whole during the LIA, with more precip focused over the desert SW.

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Not if they were as cold overall as the 1920s as well. Good luck with that one.

When global temperatures start dropping more noticeably, I'm sure it'll be blamed on humanity too.

 

I can already see the headline: "Human-induced ice-melt is slowing the Atlantic conveyor, cooling the globe". Or something like that.

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Although if anything, I would say that a wetter climate here, especially in the cold season, would be more of a sign of a warming globe. From what I can tell conditions here were cooler and drier on the whole during the LIA, with more precip focused over the desert SW.

This is correct. Technically, a wetter PNW/W-Canada is the reflection of a broad, poleward-shifted Hadley Cell/+AO, and a stronger NPAC anticyclone, all of which are standard under a warm and/or warming globe situation.

 

A wetter California/SW US reflects just the opposite, which is a tighter, more contracted Hadley Cell/-AO, and a deeper Aleutian Low, all of which are standard in a cool/cooling globe situstion.

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Your winter precip isn't actually below average is it? I work lots in the cedar hill/ Mackenzie area and the ground is moist, soggy in low lawn areas on all 6 properties. That's getting pretty close to the full rainshadowed area.

 

It's hard to tell because there aren't any stations in this area with long running reliable data. What I have seen from one nearby station is that this year has been drier overall than many previous recent years, but we're probably running closer to average if we were to compare against a long running average. The big thing that continues to stand out to me is how exaggerated the difference in rainfall has been between this area and the Airport area. The airport is up to 66mm now, while we're sitting at just 33mm in this area. Looking at other recent years the difference in precipitation has been relatively minor and in April 2011 and 2013 there was quite a bit more rain in this area than the airport.

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I agree that people can be a little myopic when it comes to what conditions actually were like in the distant past, especially since old record are continually tampered with by agencies with agendas it seems.

 

Although if anything, I would say that a wetter climate here, especially in the cold season, would be more of a sign of a warming globe. From what I can tell conditions here were cooler and drier on the whole during the LIA, with more precip focused over the desert SW.

 

I've read about that as well. Apparently southern California used to see fairly regular Pacific storms during the winter, which were locally known as "southeasters." I'm guessing the name arose from the SSE wind tendency due to local topography, similar to what they see in Bellingham. These were common until the mid-19th century, when the prevailing storm track shifted to where it is today, i.e. northern California.

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When global temperatures start dropping more noticeably, I'm sure it'll be blamed on humanity too.

 

I can already see the headline: "Human-induced ice-melt is slowing the Atlantic conveyor, cooling the globe". Or something like that.

 

Bold statement for someone trying to be a scientist. You should know better.  :)

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I've read about that as well. Apparently southern California used to see fairly regular Pacific storms during the winter, which were locally known as "southeasters." I'm guessing the name arose from the SSE wind tendency due to local topography, similar to what they see in Bellingham. These were common until the mid-19th century, when the prevailing storm track shifted to where it is today, i.e. northern California.

That's fascinating. Do you have any links about this sort of thing?

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Bold statement for someone trying to be a scientist. You should know better. :)

You'd be surprised how many well-respected scientists privately share my sentiment on this issue (not making this up).

 

Much like in politics, there is a deep scientific establishment here, many call it the "old guard". It's held together by the difficult quest for grant money in this era of budget cuts, as well as political pressure, personal belief systems, and reputation/ego. This is an issue in all of the sciences, however it's especially bad in climate science.

 

As a result, there have been few (if any) recent innovations in climate science, except for paleoclimate. And these recent discoveries in paleoclimate haven't received much attention because they blatantly contradict the computer models' hindcastings.

 

At this point, these uber-low resolution, uber-parameterized climate models are all we've got, and they're garbage. Literally, we're still attempting to model the climate system solely via external radiative forcings, ocean overturning, and chaos. We're in the fooking Stone Age here, and it's because we want to be.

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More hints of a possible pattern change.   Hope it sticks this time.  I am sure Phil will say it only lasts 1-2 days before crashing.   :)  But it seems almost inevitable at this point that we enter an extended period of much drier weather.   We might not go right back to a very wet pattern afterwards if history is any guide.

 

Right now there is agreement between the GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles for what appears to be a meaningful pattern change beginning next weekend... one that is hopefully not just transient.  

 

Side note... the models are also showing a major snow event from Denver to Minneapolis around this time. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042306/gfs_z500a_namer_36.png

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls01/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls01-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-u3oVMK.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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From Cliff...

 

The depressing fact:  here in the Pacific Northwest we are living through a record-breaking wet winter and spring, and the action is not over yet.   The good news:  we should transition to an El Nino next winter, which should be associated with a different, and drier, atmospheric circulation.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Guest Dome Buster

From Cliff...

 

The depressing fact:  here in the Pacific Northwest we are living through a record-breaking wet winter and spring, and the action is not over yet.   The good news:  we should transition to an El Nino next winter, which should be associated with a different, and drier, atmospheric circulation.

Unfortunately he makes these false claims with only 52% certainty.

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From Cliff...

 

The depressing fact:  here in the Pacific Northwest we are living through a record-breaking wet winter and spring, and the action is not over yet.   The good news:  we should transition to an El Nino next winter, which should be associated with a different, and drier, atmospheric circulation.

At least it's not in your backyard. I think this is atmosphere's payback for recordly warm & dry April last year.

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At least it's not in your backyard. I think this is atmosphere's payback for recordly warm & dry April last year.

 

Probably.

 

Now I want to be paid back to having record setting wet rainy seasons for 2 consecutive years.   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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From Cliff...

 

The depressing fact: here in the Pacific Northwest we are living through a record-breaking wet winter and spring, and the action is not over yet. The good news: we should transition to an El Nino next winter, which should be associated with a different, and drier, atmospheric circulation.

He is such a biased blowhard. :lol:

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He is such a biased blowhard. :lol:

It's like he wrote that post to troll us

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Gets old hearing people who are supposedly "scientists" constantly editorializing. Tell us what the weather/pattern is going to be, not how we're supposed to feel about it.

 

Now you know how conservatives feel when they watch the mainstream media... ;)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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