April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Waiting on nature to change the record.

You sound like me in 2014 and 2015. Except you complain about ten times more.

[Jesse]

Very heavy, fine drizzle the last few hours. Feels like the coast.

[TT-SEA]

You sound like me in 2014 and 2015. Except you complain about ten times more.

 

I don't have lofty expectations... just something less than daily rain.   

[Guest happ]

Less than two years ago.

 

Oops

[VancouverIslandSouth]

But if you just drive 5 miles away... the world is sopping wet and thoroughly saturated.   

 

I have not heard a single person in real life say anything good about the weather this spring.   But then its literally been raining almost every single day since the end of January.   

 

Hopefully May is more dynamic with periods of westerly and offshore flow. We can still have a rainy month without being stuck under persistent SW flow. Probably would be a drier pattern for your area than we've been seeing.

[TT-SEA]

Heading out of town... but tomorrow looks like it could be quite nice in the Seattle area between c-zones.      Friday and Saturday should be mostly nice as well.   Hopefully we are slowly turning the corner now.

 

[Jesse]

I don't have lofty expectations... just something less than daily rain.

All I wanted was something less than daily blowtorching. But nature didn't care then and doesn't care now.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully May is more dynamic with periods of westerly and offshore flow. We can still have a rainy month without being stuck under persistent SW flow. Probably would be a drier pattern for your area than we've been seeing.

 

Almost has to be drier regionally and overall... and ideally we would have some convective days and your area gets hit hard. 

 

May - September can be wet without being wet on many days.    

[Deweydog]

July will be drier than April. Warmer too.

[TT-SEA]

All I wanted was something less than daily blowtorching. But nature didn't care then and doesn't care now.

 

Nope... nature never cares.  

[Front Ranger]

Heading out of town... but tomorrow looks like it could be quite nice in the Seattle area between c-zones.      Friday and Saturday should be mostly nice as well.   Hopefully we are slowly turning the corner now.

 

 

This week has turned out to be not quite the washout you feared looking at the models last week.

[TT-SEA]

This week has turned out to be not quite the washout you feared looking at the models last week.

 

Ironically... the focus of the moisture shifted south.    That does not happen too often.

[BLI snowman]

This week has turned out to be not quite the washout you feared looking at the models last week.

Been three pretty gross days here in a row.

[Jesse]

July will be drier than April. Warmer too.

Believe it when I see it. <_>

[Front Ranger]

Been three pretty gross days here in a row.

 

Yep, but much drier further north. Sunday was wet pretty much everywhere, as I personally experienced.

[Jesse]

This week has turned out to be not quite the washout you feared looking at the models last week.

The frequent rain and heavy overcast have been notable the last three days. Pretty Novemberish, especially by late-April standards.

[Jesse]

Yep, but much drier further north. Sunday was wet pretty much everywhere, as I personally experienced.

Oh, that's right, you're actually in the region. So your silly contrarianism has a bit of gravitas. Better get the most out of it while you can!

[TT-SEA]

Been three pretty gross days here in a row.

 

I am really confused... you say its been "gross" and Andrew said it was "nasty".   But when we had a sunny, warm day recently it was described as "gorgeous".    So we don't need rain right now?   

[Jesse]

I am really confused... you say its been "gross" and Andrew said it was "nasty". But when we had a sunny, warm day recently it was described as "gorgeous".

I'm sure if we polled the douggie firs they would say it's been gorgeous.

[Deweydog]

I am really confused... you say its been "gross" and Andrew said it was "nasty". But when we had a sunny, warm day recently it was described as "gorgeous". So we don't need rain right now?

All descriptors are offensive and worthy of deep, condescending discussion.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Saturday is still a go on the 0z GFS  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_nwus_16.png

[Front Ranger]

Oh, that's right, you're actually in the region. So your silly contrarianism has a bit of gravitas. Better get the most out of it while you can!

 

I was Fri-Mon, back in CO now.

 

Contrarianism? I was talking to Tim, who previously was fretting about copious rainfall this week in his general area. Hasn't really materialized.

[Jesse]

All descriptors are offensive and worthy of deep, condescending discussion.

Nice day!

[Deweydog]

Nice day!

Fightin' words!!!

[Jesse]

Fightin' words!!!

 

Haven't heard much of that from you since the historic multi-year torch ended. We have entered more peaceful times.

[TT-SEA]

Saturday is still a go on the 0z GFS

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_nwus_16.png

 

 

Jesse liked your post... he likes the prospects of a rainy weekend after a rainy week.    Or he is very worried about a 5-square mile area on VI.    Anyone short of rain will get all the sympathy.     

 

Its interesting battle between models.    The 12Z ECMWF went the other way.   Guessing now the 00Z run will come back to a little more wet.

[Deweydog]

Haven't heard much of that from you since the historic multi-year torch ended. We have entered more peaceful times.

Had plenty of nice days this winter. 'Member???

[Jesse]

Jesse liked your post... he likes the prospects of a rainy weekend after a rainy week.    Or he is very worried about a 5-square mile area on VI.    Anyone short of rain will get all the sympathy.     

 

Its interesting battle between models.    The 12Z ECMWF went the other way.   Guessing now the 00Z run will come back to a little more wet.

 

Oh Tim. I'm just amused at how brilliantly VancouverIslandSouth is trolling you. I honestly didn't know he had it in him.

[Jesse]

Had plenty of nice days this winter. 'Member???

 

I 'member.

 

1/12/17 was the nicest day in years by some metrics.

[TT-SEA]

Oh Tim. I'm just amused at how brilliantly VancouverIslandSouth is trolling you. I honestly didn't know he had it in him.

 

I was thinking the other day that I should give him props.    I know he is sort of trolling... but I think he is genuinely concerned too.

[TT-SEA]

Had plenty of nice days this winter. 'Member???

 

 

Mmmmmmm... member berries!  

[Front Ranger]

[Deweydog]

I 'member.

 

1/12/17 was the nicest day in years by some metrics.

4-25-17 gave it a run for its money. The drizzle kicked in a little late, though...

[Jesse]

4-25-17 gave it a run for its money. The drizzle kicked in a little late, though...

 

I thoroughly enjoyed this evening's heavy drizzle. Guilty as charged!

[Dave]

If this upcoming warmish/dryish period doesn't verify, I'm gonna fckn lose it.

[TT-SEA]

Saturday is still a go on the 0z GFS

 

 

Your homeland model is siding with the Europeans for Saturday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017042600/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

[Front Ranger]

If this upcoming warmish/dryish period doesn't verify, I'm gonna fckn lose it.

 

Tim will be quick to point out you represent the moral majority in the region.

[Deweydog]

I think we should all narrate cassette tapes articulating the 13 reasons why we love/hate each and every aspect of our climate, once and for all.

[Phil]

You know it's spring when every other post is a Tim-per tantrum.

[Dave]

Tim will be quick to point out you represent the moral majority in the region.

It is true.  Some just won't admit it.