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4/5 - 4/6 Powerful April Spring Storm


Tom

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A powerful spring storm is poised to develop and track from the southern Plains up towards the lower Lakes mid week.  Quite the interesting storm system which will have heavy rains, very strong winds and possible snow???  It's been a wild and wet Spring so far and mother nature is not lacking in the storm department.

 

 

Let's discuss..

 

 

06z NAM....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017040306/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017040306/namconus_apcpn_ncus_28.png

 

 

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LOT's take:  They are even indicating Lake Effect snow for NW IN!  What the heck?

 

 

 

Interestingly, as cold air aloft filters over the region Wednesday
night, expecting rain to transition over to snow. 850mb temps are
below freezing and there is enough forcing aloft to suggest
moderate, measurable snow is possible. Have medium-high confidence
in snow occurring so kept a period of snow in the forecast Wednesday
night, which may result in at least a few tenths of snow. Sticking
snow all depends on snowfall rates given wet, warm ground. If snow
comes down harder than forecast, accumulations could be greater than
forecast.

Gusty winds continue Thursday with gusts of 30-40 MPH. With such
a cool pool aloft, lowered Thursday`s high temps into the low 40s
using a mixture of CONSRaw and local 925mb climatology. Have high
confidence in temps being cooler than what SuperBlend had loaded
in. Surface temps and forcing will play a key role in what type of
precip falls Thursday. Right now have snow becoming rain as
surface temps warm. Snow may continue longer than forecast if
forcing creates snowfall rates so high that snow may overcome the
surface warm layer. However, this far out, decided to play it safe
and have snow turn over to rain with minimal accumulations.

Lows Thursday night still look chilly in the low 30s. The synoptic
precip will shift east Thursday night but models are suggesting that
a lake effect snow band may form over NW IN which makes sense given
strong north winds along the long fetch of the lake.
 
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12z NAM...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017040312/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017040312/084/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

Holy winds!  12z NAM suggesting 50-60mph winds down the lake on Thursday!  Only if this would have been a storm during the winter.  Would have been a blockbuster blizzard!

 

I'd imagine with the wind and snow falling, there are going to be some power outages.

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Holy winds!  12z NAM suggesting 50-60mph winds down the lake on Thursday!  Only if this would have been a storm during the winter.  Would have been a blockbuster blizzard!

 

Instead, we get...

 

 

 

This IS winter 2017 in a nutshell. And screw the winds, I've spent hours cleaning up the massive pile of sticks & broken limbs "pruned" by Ma Nature's last windy tantrum a few weeks ago.

 

[insert arrow-thru-head emoticon here]

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Instead, we get...

 

20170403 SNELT.PNG

 

This IS winter 2017 in a nutshell. And screw the winds, I've spent hours cleaning up the massive pile of sticks & broken limbs "pruned" by Ma Nature's last windy tantrum a few weeks ago.

 

[insert arrow-thru-head emoticon here]

More wood for the fire pit! Gotta find a silver lining somehow.

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Instead, we get...

 

attachicon.gif20170403 SNELT.PNG

 

This IS winter 2017 in a nutshell. And screw the winds, I've spent hours cleaning up the massive pile of sticks & broken limbs "pruned" by Ma Nature's last windy tantrum a few weeks ago.

 

[insert arrow-thru-head emoticon here]

Figures, I've been doing cleanups since last week, looks like I may be doing those over now.

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Ummmmm.....if this verifies April snowfall records will be shattered. Meanwhile I'm fertilizing my lawn here in St Paul.

That is like the perfect track!  Looks like things may get a bit dicy if those heavier snow fall rates verify.  How many times this spring have we seen these type of cutters?!

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NAM has not backed down and continues to bring these crazy totals. With a negative tilted storm I'm sure there will be some very healthy returns so I could see where a few inches would not be out of the question. It will all come down to when the transition occurs. Slow mover so could see some nice lollipops.  

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NAM has not backed down and continues to bring these crazy totals. With a negative tilted storm I'm sure there will be some very healthy returns so I could see where a few inches would not be out of the question. It will all come down to when the transition occurs. Slow mover so could see some nice lollipops.  

The only problem I see is how warm/wet the ground is.  A lot of this falls at night so that will prob help.  Nonetheless, this is a sweet looking storm that is coming together.  Thursday morning may feature a snow globe with snow pasted onto everything facing NE.

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The only problem I see is how warm/wet the ground is.  A lot of this falls at night so that will prob help.  Nonetheless, this is a sweet looking storm that is coming together.  Thursday morning may feature a snow globe with snow pasted onto everything facing NE.

Heavy rates can overcome a warm ground but I know what you mean. Looks like there could be some heavy rates of hail or sleet so this might help cool the ground faster than normal.

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Looks like each model has it's own version of what's going to happen. I will have to lean with the lesser amounts at this point as changeover will be the key as well as dynamics of this system. Track itself is very favorable.  

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Looks like each model has it's own version of what's going to happen. I will have to lean with the lesser amounts at this point as changeover will be the key as well as dynamics of this system. Track itself is very favorable.  

Ya NAM is by far the coldest model getting temps down to the 32-33 range.  Rest of the models today are quite a bit warmer

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18z NAM 3km...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017040418/nam3km_asnow_ncus_61.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017040418/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

 

 

18z NAM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017040418/namconus_asnow_ncus_25.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017040418/namconus_apcpn_ncus_24.png

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Early tomorrow morning could be interesting around here as dynamic cooling could takeover and could see a couple hours of heavy snow before it transitions back to rain and then again back to snow tomorrow evening into Thursday. Tough forecast but will be fun to follow. 

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Early tomorrow morning could be interesting around here as dynamic cooling could takeover and could see a couple hours of heavy snow before it transitions back to rain and then again back to snow tomorrow evening into Thursday. Tough forecast but will be fun to follow. 

Ya, no doubt.  Should be interesting to see the dynamics come into play.  Man, you just wish this storm would have hit in December when the cold air was around!  It's really the best track for chitown.

 

The waves will be rocking on Thursday!  Surfing anyone???  14+ foot waves...they are comparing this event to the Halloween howler back in '14.

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High Wind Watch...likely be re-issued into a warning tomorrow...

 

 

 

High Wind WatchURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
321 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

...High Wind Watch Late Wednesday Night through Thursday...

.A deepening low pressure system will move through the region
mid week...and is expected to produce a period of very strong
northerly winds across the area. Sustained winds around 40 mph
and gusts approaching 60 mph will be possible from late Wednesday
night through much of the day Thursday before winds slowly
diminish Thursday night. Highest winds are expected to occur near
the Lake Michigan shore...where there is no terrain to block or
slow these strong winds.

ILZ006-014-050430-
/O.NEW.KLOT.HW.A.0001.170406T0600Z-170406T2100Z/
Lake IL-Cook-
Including the cities of Waukegan and Chicago
321 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a High Wind
Watch, which is in effect from late Wednesday night through
Thursday afternoon.

* TIMING...Midnight Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.

* WINDS...Sustained north winds of 40 mph with gusts as high as 60
mph...especially near Lake Michigan.

* IMPACTS...Damage to trees...power lines and personal property
are possible with winds of this magnitude. Driving may be made
difficult for high profile vehicles. High waves along the Lake
Michigan shore may cause lakeshore flooding.
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More wood for the fire pit! Gotta find a silver lining somehow.

No burning in little antique Marshall, so no bueno. Nice thought though.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GRR's Winter Storm Watch is short but dramatic. In a nutshell "batten the hatches" by April standards. Ofc one of the best storms of my life was April 1-2 1975, which also brought Chicago to a standstill even though it fell during the day in Chi-town.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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