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2/28-3/2 Potential Storm


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This is for the wave/storm in the HR 90-102 range. I figured we are close enough to the time period for a thread. We could make a new one for the later time period (3/2 to 3/4) if the model runs hold.

Nice. Money, where you at again?? I recall your close to my parents up in Red Wing, MN, and they have a TON of snow on the ground right now. I'm hoping this doesn't shift any further north, starting to look like a complete IA special with half the amounts here in Eastern Nebraska, in terms of the 00z GFS. Not concerned, as it's just one run this far out, just hope it's not a trend! Really hope we all get it good from this, except Geos :) we need it out here to help get our ground nice and wet for spring to help generate moisture for storms. Hope Nebraska can be the winner for the first time this year.

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Going to put my 2 cents in for what it is worth. This is definitely not set in stone but models are converging on a senario that could be the best setup we have seen all winter countrywide.

 

This is the time of the year where you can get the most explosive storms to develope even though this is better setup than a woundup system . Temperature contrasts will play a huge part as well as to where the baroclinic zone sets up shop for WAA snows to develope. The artic air will be in place and then we have plenty of moisture to go around this time of the year which we haven't seen too much of this winter. This also has the looks of a very slow mover of waves developing along the baro zone from west to east for a long duration/high ratio moderate to heavy snow event. This could be a historic snow maker(and I say that because many are on the verge of breaking snow records) and I can easily see 18"+ from a setup like this when all is said and done. Also, these types of systems tend to cover a large area so I can see places from the plains to the east coast getting in on the action. The problem I see with this setup looking at the maps would be a huge ice storm for the southern areas. Tons of available qpf and low level cold could lead to a nasty outbreak.

 

Of course after this passes it looks like we get into the deep freeze for a little while until probably mid-month when maybe the pattern will break which would make a few people very happy. I for one say lets go for the record. If its going to be cold then it might as well snow and if its going to snow then make it a BIG DOG and make it memorable.

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So far with the 12z run, Saturday night looks like the biggest deal for WI and up this way.

 

 

Next wave

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I agree with Tony that when you have these long duration multi-day scenarios you can really stack up the snowfall.  This event is looking more and more interesting still 84+ hours out and models are still spitting out quite a bit of precip.  I'm guessing that the snowfall totals may increase as we get closer to the event when better data comes in.  Snow ratios will be very high so that will also bode well for accumulations and a wind off the lake for lakeside counties.  A widespread 12"+ event may be in the works from the Plains to the Great Lakes.

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I agree with Tony that when you have these long duration multi-day scenarios you can really stack up the snowfall. This event is looking more and more interesting still 84+ hours out and models are still spitting out quite a bit of precip. I'm guessing that the snowfall totals may increase as we get closer to the event when better data comes in. Snow ratios will be very high so that will also bode well for accumulations and a wind off the lake for lakeside counties. A widespread 12"+ event may be in the works from the Plains to the Great Lakes.

I'm liking 6+" widespread and maybe even 8+" widespread if this is what the models continue to show. 12" widespread just seems like it would be tough to get with WAA snows, which has been previously mentioned.

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Euro still would bring widespread 4-8" snows but like you said ED, it wants to bring the bigger wave Sun/Mon down south along OV and into east coast.  Models will bounce back and forth so as long as it still is showing a system this far out I'm optimistic we will see some decent snowfall.

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00z Euro precip...you can fluff that up easily to 15:1...

 

Climatologically speaking a northward track of the 2nd wave would favor our area with the heaviest snows.  Then again, this isn't a normal winter, however, the LRC track is still in our back pocket.

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That inversion will have to raise itself up in order to get lake enhancement. If it does raise up, the Delta Ts are low end.

 

.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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EURO has Delta Ts of 18°C and a good fetch. If there is an inversion than it won't due much for lake enhancement. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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