Jump to content

2/28-3/2 Potential Storm


Money

Recommended Posts

NAM with 6+ here on the first wave, or very close, and 18z GFS with 10 or so all together.

 

SREF plume mean is generally in the 4-6 range for the 1st wave in WI and IA.

 

12z ECMWF is probably about 4-6 all together. South than the other models with the FRI/SAT wave.

 

MKE AFD:

 

THE OVERALL FLOW REORIENTS FROM A BRUTAL COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...TO
A MORE ZONAL...BUT IT WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE FLOW. THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ABOUT 3 OR 4 SEPARATE
WAVES SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...BRINGING A RATHER LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOW EVENT TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. IT APPEARS IT WILL SNOW ON AND OFF FOR ABOUT 4
DAYS. USING A CONSENSUS OF PRECIP ACCUMS GIVES ABOUT 1/2 INCH OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...A LITTLE
LESS TO THE NORTH. THIS TRANSLATES TO ABOUT 4 TO 7 INCHES OF
SNOW. FRIDAY WILL BE OUR FIRST MAIN ROUND OF POSSIBLE SNOW. A
LITTLE BREAK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MORE SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER 12 HOUR BREAK WITH
MORE SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Brant Miller's model just showed 5-10" for the Fri/Sat wave, then another 6-12" for the Sat-Sun event....are you kidding me???

I really hate when tv meteorologists do that. People end up freaking out over these ridiculous snow amounts some tv mets show that usually don't end up happening. Most of the public isn't like us and aren't aware of the other guidance out there. Considering there are already people talking about getting 16 inches of snow next week really verifies that. I'm not saying it can't happen, but at this time it's better not to show extreme amounts.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Scott, you have a point there but I think its good in a way to show the public what the trend is days in advance so ppl can prepare.  Since we have had such a brutal winter in Chicago, I think mets are hoisting their so-called "warning" flags as their models may have some credence to the predicted snow amounts since it fits the overall pattern we have been in all winter long.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Indeed, very excited to see what tonight's runs show. The 1st wave is garnering my attention a little bit, would be nice to get an advisory level snow out of that.

The NAM on the past 2 runs has been consistent in showing a robust wave instead of it shearing out like some of the other models. This was looking like WAA snows a couple runs ago but not so sure anymore.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Both GFS and NAM don't have it starting until after 6:00 PM for the Chicago area.

 

And as others have said, GFS much weaker with the first wave.

 

0z GFS starts it this far east at about midnight. 0z NAM just a tad earlier.

 

Only 0.5" for you and me at 81 hours.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022600&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=081

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...