Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

May 2017 Observations and Discussion

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#1
Tom

Posted 25 April 2017 - 07:21 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Are the April showers going to bring May flowers or maybe snow showers???  In this by polar weather pattern that has set up this Spring, you can't discount any curve balls mother nature throws at ya.  

During the 1st week of May, the northern tier may see not 1, but 2 wintry systems!  Here is the 1st one from the 06z GFS...

 

 

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_29.png

 

 



#2
Tom

Posted 25 April 2017 - 07:26 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Both the Euro/CFSv2 look chilly for a large part of the U.S.

 

C-OzjHJXkAA6vns.jpg

 

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20170425.201705.gif

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20170425.201705.gif



#3
St Paul Storm

Posted 25 April 2017 - 10:40 AM

St Paul Storm

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 837 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
I don't have access to the Euro precip maps, but the 12z looks like a snowy cutter here on May 1. 850s would definitely indicate snow. Yikes. Now several of the major globals showing this.

#4
Tom

Posted 25 April 2017 - 10:45 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I don't have access to the Euro precip maps, but the 12z looks like a snowy cutter here on May 1. 850s would definitely indicate snow. Yikes. Now several of the major globals showing this.

Yup, the 12z looks like a very strong neg tilted trough and the ULL feature tracking near your back yard...

 

ecmwf_z500a_us_7.png



#5
St Paul Storm

Posted 25 April 2017 - 10:53 AM

St Paul Storm

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 837 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

Yup, the 12z looks like a very strong neg tilted trough and the ULL feature tracking near your back yard...
 
ecmwf_z500a_us_7.png


Might have to start looking at May snowfall records here. Just for kicks at this point. But could my biggest snowfall event of the year happen in May?? Lol.
  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#6
Tom

Posted 25 April 2017 - 12:07 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Woah, 12z Euro showing a major Spring snowstorm from the Plains to Upper Midwest...

 

C-R22R7XYAE9kdH.jpg

 

 

C-R229KXYAA0Tep.jpg



#7
gabel23

Posted 25 April 2017 - 12:12 PM

gabel23

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1035 posts
  • LocationShelby, NE

Woah, 12z Euro showing a major Spring snowstorm from the Plains to Upper Midwest...

 

C-R22R7XYAE9kdH.jpg

 

 

C-R229KXYAA0Tep.jpg

Holy smokes, there is no way that plays out is there?! That would be insane. 



#8
Hawkeye

Posted 25 April 2017 - 12:25 PM

Hawkeye

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 823 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

We won't be seeing any accumulating snow, but the euro keeps much of Iowa in the 30s to low 40s behind the system on Monday... very windy and showery, too.  All my plants will be seeing a lot of garage time over the next week.


season snowfall: 10.1"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#9
St Paul Storm

Posted 25 April 2017 - 12:39 PM

St Paul Storm

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 837 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
MPX taking notice. The CIPS analog mean snowfall from this morning showed at least several inches over the Twin Cities.

Looks like around 1" of precip depending on what model you look at. Even with low ratios that would yield a decent snow event. Still a ways to go but I'm starting to root for this.

#10
james1976

Posted 25 April 2017 - 07:27 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3603 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
May 1, 2 2013 repeat?
  • jaster220 likes this

#11
Tom

Posted 26 April 2017 - 06:38 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Forecast models are tanking the NAO/AO just as we flip the calendar into May...looking like at least through the first 10 days of the month will be cooler in the Central/Eastern CONUS.

 

nao.sprd2.gif

 

ao.sprd2.gif



#12
jaster220

Posted 26 April 2017 - 08:05 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse Jan '14

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3942 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

Forecast models are tanking the NAO/AO just as we flip the calendar into May...looking like at least through the first 10 days of the month will be cooler in the Central/Eastern CONUS.

 

nao.sprd2.gif

 

ao.sprd2.gif

 

Nice winter pattern setting up - uggh! Just when I tell my daughter that May is rarely crappy - figures!


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#13
St Paul Storm

Posted 26 April 2017 - 08:40 AM

St Paul Storm

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 837 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
The beat goes on....

Tom has there ever been a winter storm thread in May? If the trends hold until tomorrow night or Friday morning I may start one. It's on my bucket list LOL!

Attached Files


  • Tom likes this

#14
james1976

Posted 26 April 2017 - 09:00 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3603 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

The beat goes on....

Tom has there ever been a winter storm thread in May? If the trends hold until tomorrow night or Friday morning I may start one. It's on my bucket list LOL!

That GEM is eerily similar imby to May 1, 2013.

#15
St Paul Storm

Posted 26 April 2017 - 09:05 AM

St Paul Storm

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 837 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

That GEM is eerily similar imby to May 1, 2013.


I didn't recall this event, probably because I lived in Chicago at the time. But I looked it up and over 12" fell in parts of SE MN and Iowa. Wowzers.
  • jaster220 likes this

#16
Tom

Posted 26 April 2017 - 10:01 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

The beat goes on....

Tom has there ever been a winter storm thread in May? If the trends hold until tomorrow night or Friday morning I may start one. It's on my bucket list LOL!

Sure thing.  Go for it!

 

That GEM is eerily similar imby to May 1, 2013.

It's fascinating to me that you mentioned this analog.  Over the past few days on my down time, I have been studying and researching climate cycles by various scientists and met's.  What stands out to me after reading some material about what we may be expecting in U.S. Winters going forward, is a period of much colder winters that may start next cold season...similar to '13 -'14 & '14 -'15.  If this storm verifies (even if it doesn't snow as much) it may be a repeating harmonic cycle similar to what happened in May '13 which lead us to the very cold consecutive winters.  

 

Of note also, it was a very cold and stormy arctic summer of 2013 which allowed less sea ice melt that season.  Having said that, the CFSv2 is forecasting another very cool arctic summer.  Is nature giving us hints???  Just a thought and felt in may be something we should monitor going forward in time.


  • St Paul Storm likes this

#17
NebraskaWX

Posted 26 April 2017 - 10:19 AM

NebraskaWX

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 887 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

I didn't recall this event, probably because I lived in Chicago at the time. But I looked it up and over 12" fell in parts of SE MN and Iowa. Wowzers.


My parents live in Red Wing, MN. I was actually there a few days later helping them move into their house during that storm, and it was unreal. That town got rekt. They have some pretty good pictures of it, they clocked 17" at their place. My dad said it was the most thunder and lightning he's ever seen with snow. These snow storms this late in the year are insane, I hope it happens again
  • Tom likes this

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#18
james1976

Posted 26 April 2017 - 11:06 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3603 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

Sure thing. Go for it!

It's fascinating to me that you mentioned this analog. Over the past few days on my down time, I have been studying and researching climate cycles by various scientists and met's. What stands out to me after reading some material about what we may be expecting in U.S. Winters going forward, is a period of much colder winters that may start next cold season...similar to '13 -'14 & '14 -'15. If this storm verifies (even if it doesn't snow as much) it may be a repeating harmonic cycle similar to what happened in May '13 which lead us to the very cold consecutive winters.

Of note also, it was a very cold and stormy arctic summer of 2013 which allowed less sea ice melt that season. Having said that, the CFSv2 is forecasting another very cool arctic summer. Is nature giving us hints??? Just a thought and felt in may be something we should monitor going forward in time.

Thats interesting stuff. I remember it started snowing early the following cold season. First flakes imby of the 13-14 season was Sept 27 and my first 1" snowfall was Oct 22. Ill take a repeat!
  • Tom and St Paul Storm like this

#19
St Paul Storm

Posted 26 April 2017 - 11:43 AM

St Paul Storm

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 837 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

My parents live in Red Wing, MN. I was actually there a few days later helping them move into their house during that storm, and it was unreal. That town got rekt. They have some pretty good pictures of it, they clocked 17" at their place. My dad said it was the most thunder and lightning he's ever seen with snow. These snow storms this late in the year are insane, I hope it happens again


That's awesome! Looks like Dodge Center, MN (just west of Rochester) received 15.2" on May 2, 2013 which is the official max daily snowfall anywhere in MN in the month of May and the max monthly snowfall in MN in the month of May. Very, very impressive.

#20
Tom

Posted 26 April 2017 - 02:06 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Looks like the 12z Euro is targeting E NE/W IA/MN with potential rain to snow mix.  Heaviest accumulations over W MN, MSP riding on the edge with heaviest snows just NW in the intense defo band.  Arrowhead does well this run it looks like.


  • St Paul Storm likes this

#21
Tom

Posted 26 April 2017 - 02:15 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

18z GFS...

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_23.png



#22
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 April 2017 - 02:26 AM

OKwx2k4

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2282 posts

Sure thing. Go for it!

It's fascinating to me that you mentioned this analog. Over the past few days on my down time, I have been studying and researching climate cycles by various scientists and met's. What stands out to me after reading some material about what we may be expecting in U.S. Winters going forward, is a period of much colder winters that may start next cold season...similar to '13 -'14 & '14 -'15. If this storm verifies (even if it doesn't snow as much) it may be a repeating harmonic cycle similar to what happened in May '13 which lead us to the very cold consecutive winters.

Of note also, it was a very cold and stormy arctic summer of 2013 which allowed less sea ice melt that season. Having said that, the CFSv2 is forecasting another very cool arctic summer. Is nature giving us hints??? Just a thought and felt in may be something we should monitor going forward in time.


I think you're right on the money. We're coming off a set of years not dissimilar to 2011-12 and 12-13. I loved the summer of 13-14. I was rarely over 92 except a week in late July-Early August.
  • jaster220 likes this

#23
Tom

Posted 27 April 2017 - 06:05 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I think you're right on the money. We're coming off a set of years not dissimilar to 2011-12 and 12-13. I loved the summer of 13-14. I was rarely over 92 except a week in late July-Early August.

If things shake out just right, your summer will be prime this season with active weather and cooler temps as we head into June/July.  August is usually a tough month to forecast and normally is the warmest month of the summer season.



#24
Tom

Posted 27 April 2017 - 06:26 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

GEFS/CFSv2 block up the northern latitudes for what looks like the whole month of May.  Certainly will spell a cooler and unsettled weather pattern for the lower 48.  Latest single run on the CFSv2 is showing a very cool nation as a whole which we have not seen in a very long time.

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20170427.201705.gif



#25
james1976

Posted 27 April 2017 - 06:38 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3603 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

GEFS/CFSv2 block up the northern latitudes for what looks like the whole month of May. Certainly will spell a cooler and unsettled weather pattern for the lower 48. Latest single run on the CFSv2 is showing a very cool nation as a whole which we have not seen in a very long time.

CFSv2.NaT2m.20170427.201705.gif

Where was this pattern during the Winter?!
  • jaster220 likes this

#26
Tom

Posted 27 April 2017 - 06:40 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

JMA for the month of May...

 

C-akmdPVoAAirsV.jpg

 

 

C-akn2gV0AQZsgp.jpg



#27
Tom

Posted 27 April 2017 - 07:14 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z NAM in lala land...sweet looking defo band right over St Paul...

 

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_52.png

 

 

 

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png



#28
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 April 2017 - 07:14 AM

St Paul Storm

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 837 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
Getting into NAM range for the weekend system. It has a cold bias, and it's historically bad at this range. But, here's the first glimpse. Yikes.

Attached Files



#29
james1976

Posted 27 April 2017 - 08:43 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3603 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Perfect looking storm. Lot of rain. Hope someone cashes in on a May 1 snowfall!

#30
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 April 2017 - 10:13 AM

OKwx2k4

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2282 posts

Where was this pattern during the Winter?!


No kidding man. I like it but dang it too. Lol

#31
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 April 2017 - 10:17 AM

OKwx2k4

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2282 posts

If things shake out just right, your summer will be prime this season with active weather and cooler temps as we head into June/July. August is usually a tough month to forecast and normally is the warmest month of the summer season.


True. August acts like a shoulder month here in terms of what the weather can do sometimes. Safest play in my area is to go with probably +1 or 2f and 2.5 inches of rain. Only 2 in 8 years really differs really far from that. I think August wins my vote for least favorite month. Lol
  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#32
Tom

Posted 27 April 2017 - 11:00 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Both Euro/GFS are showing another pretty big storm over the OV Day 9/10...TBH, they are pretty much in very good agreement for being this far out...

 

 

 

ecmwf_z500a_us_10.png

 

 

gfs_z500a_us_37.png



#33
gabel23

Posted 27 April 2017 - 11:34 AM

gabel23

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1035 posts
  • LocationShelby, NE

I started a thread for this weekend's storm, just because there might, and I emphasize might, be some decent snows out of this for someone. 

 

http://theweatherfor...ow/#entry236864



#34
Tom

Posted 27 April 2017 - 12:16 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I started a thread for this weekend's storm, just because there might, and I emphasize might, be some decent snows out of this for someone. 

 

http://theweatherfor...ow/#entry236864

You beat St Paul to it!


  • gabel23 likes this

#35
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 April 2017 - 12:41 PM

St Paul Storm

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 837 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

You beat St Paul to it!


I wasn't going to start it until tomorrow after the 0z runs tonight. No worries. I've been too busy trying to decide if I put the gas in the lawnmower or the snowblower.
  • Tom, james1976, gabel23 and 1 other like this

#36
Hawkeye

Posted 29 April 2017 - 07:03 PM

Hawkeye

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 823 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

Boy, after this first huge wet system and another one over the southeast and east coast later next week, there will barely be any drought areas left in the entire country.  Even abnormally dry areas will be few and far between.


  • Tom and jaster220 like this

season snowfall: 10.1"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#37
Tom

Posted 01 May 2017 - 06:37 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Happy May 1st!  Looking forward to this month.  Not only is it my B day month, but I have a lot of work related business that will be transpiring and hopefully making it that much enjoyable.  Lot's going on.

 

I find it interesting how JB has analog-ed this past big weekend system to Easter of '76 and the next big system in the east with another '76 analog.  It has snowed a ton out in the Plains over the past couple days and its snowing currently in parts of NE/MN on May 1st which could analog May 1st 2013.  How did those following winters set up in '76-'77 and '13-'14???  Well, let's just hope we can see a blend of the 2 next cold season.

 

Meantime, both GFS/EURO showing possible frost/freezes near the Lakes next Sun/Mon as the -NAO pattern wrecking havoc on what that storm system will do.



#38
Tom

Posted 01 May 2017 - 07:04 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Some thoughts, in the summer of '76 we were coming off a moderate to borderline strong Nina during the previous winter and ended up with ENSO neutral conditions for the summer of '76.  By the Autumn of '76, ENSO 3.4 region averaged around +0.7C which is about what the CFSv2 is forecasting.  It was also a central based Modiki El Nino.  Something to ponder on as we roll into the summer season (sooner rather than later for ya'll in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes).



#39
Tom

Posted 01 May 2017 - 07:21 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

CPC's take for the month of May...

 

off15_temp.gif

 

 

off01_prcp.gif



#40
Hawkeye

Posted 01 May 2017 - 11:41 AM

Hawkeye

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 823 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

The GFS and Euro both have a pretty awful-looking omega block pattern locking in over the next ten days for folks out east.  Farther west, we would be in a good spot for pleasant, dry weather, if not overly warm.  Even temps a bit below average are pretty nice in May.


season snowfall: 10.1"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#41
jaster220

Posted 01 May 2017 - 11:56 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse Jan '14

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3942 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

The GFS and Euro both have a pretty awful-looking omega block pattern locking in over the next ten days for folks out east.  Farther west, we would be in a good spot for pleasant, dry weather, if not overly warm.  Even temps a bit below average are pretty nice in May.

 

East is relative. How far east exactly? East of the GL's? (hoping that's what you meant)


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#42
Hawkeye

Posted 01 May 2017 - 12:20 PM

Hawkeye

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 823 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

East is relative. How far east exactly? East of the GL's? (hoping that's what you meant)

 

East of me... the lakes included.


season snowfall: 10.1"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#43
Tom

Posted 01 May 2017 - 02:21 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Yet another Lakes cutter in the works for later this week...the beat goes on...when will it end???  BTW, this storm is part of the LRC pattern which brought Chicago/MKE it's significant LES event in early March.

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_24.png



#44
jaster220

Posted 02 May 2017 - 09:15 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse Jan '14

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3942 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

Yet another Lakes cutter in the works for later this week...the beat goes on...when will it end???  BTW, this storm is part of the LRC pattern which brought Chicago/MKE it's significant LES event in early March.

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_24.png

 

PASS!  Got a touch of water in my basement from the ~1.25" of rainfall over the weekend and this would be a repeat or worse of the flooding last month. I have water hydraulically forced up through small cracks in the poured floor when the water table gets too high. And it takes quite a while for the water table to recede to a low enough level - there's no rushing it either. Uggh at this crappy deluge season. And here I was nervous about a possible drought starting down in the S. Plains and working it's way up to the GL's. Now, it's apparent the other shoe has dropped and they're sharing their flooding. Can we not get "normal" any more? Heard on the news that Insurance companies (your line of work?) are having a record payout year to date, so prepare for everyone's rates to go up! And wishing for more damaging wx is only nice if you're not the one having to deal with it or pay for it in some fashion. 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#45
BrianJK

Posted 02 May 2017 - 12:52 PM

BrianJK

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 260 posts
  • LocationElmhurst, IL
They might as well just start using the 💩 symbol when issuing the CPC outlook and local 7 day forecasts around these parts. Going to be difficult to get any real sustained summertime warmth going with the soils as saturated as they are. Cool summers and warm winters, how nice.
  • jaster220 likes this

#46
jaster220

Posted 03 May 2017 - 03:49 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse Jan '14

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3942 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

They might as well just start using the symbol when issuing the CPC outlook and local 7 day forecasts around these parts. Going to be difficult to get any real sustained summertime warmth going with the soils as saturated as they are. Cool summers and warm winters, how nice.

 

It's funny (not really ofc), I was just thinking on my morning commute how the patterns shift around in seemingly semi-random combinations, and sometimes it pops up boxcars, and sometime snake eyes. I cannot remember a worse overall combination in my adult life than what the past 3 MET seasons have dished out for this region. As posted elsewhere, the winter of 2011-12 was actually more of a winter than this one we just finished and we felt that was horrid at the time. Ofc, today I get to burn my one dry and sunny day on lawn chores in case it's another four days of rain on tap. We've raved about some great patterns we've seen in recent winters, and now it's hard not to rant when we're dealt this hand. :lol:


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#47
jaster220

Posted 03 May 2017 - 05:38 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse Jan '14

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3942 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

Normally, I'd be like "meh" on some more rainfall in any season, but this has direct flood impacts for me personally, so here I am posting out of my season on a system. IWX has flood watches hoisted just to my south, and my local forecast is calling for quite a bit starting overnight. But, the folks at Intellicast are painting a slightly different scenario with huge differences for mby. They have Marshall riding the sharp cut-off on the NW edge. Unless this trends more NW, I could luck-out and just get grazed.

 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#48
Tom

Posted 03 May 2017 - 05:40 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Had a real fun day yesterday as we took a day trip up into the mountains of Payson, AZ!  I'll post pictures of my 2 hikes at around 6,500-7,500ft elevation.  The one spot which struck me with beauty was Woods Canyon Lake up at around 7,500ft nestled at the top of a mountain ridge surrounded by Pine trees.  Oh, and I saw remnants of snow OTG from their solid Winter down here!


  • jaster220 likes this

#49
Tom

Posted 03 May 2017 - 05:47 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Heard there was some frost in S MI...any in your back yard Jaster/WestJim???



#50
Tom

Posted 03 May 2017 - 05:48 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14990 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Chilly morning in parts of Wisco this morning...

 

C-5NswCWsAIzXuj.jpg