May 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

The GFS and Euro both have a pretty awful-looking omega block pattern locking in over the next ten days for folks out east.  Farther west, we would be in a good spot for pleasant, dry weather, if not overly warm.  Even temps a bit below average are pretty nice in May.

 

East is relative. How far east exactly? East of the GL's? (hoping that's what you meant)

[Hawkeye]

East is relative. How far east exactly? East of the GL's? (hoping that's what you meant)

 

East of me... the lakes included.

[Tom]

Yet another Lakes cutter in the works for later this week...the beat goes on...when will it end???  BTW, this storm is part of the LRC pattern which brought Chicago/MKE it's significant LES event in early March.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017050112/gfs_apcpn_ncus_24.png

[jaster220]

Yet another Lakes cutter in the works for later this week...the beat goes on...when will it end???  BTW, this storm is part of the LRC pattern which brought Chicago/MKE it's significant LES event in early March.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017050112/gfs_apcpn_ncus_24.png

 

PASS!  Got a touch of water in my basement from the ~1.25" of rainfall over the weekend and this would be a repeat or worse of the flooding last month. I have water hydraulically forced up through small cracks in the poured floor when the water table gets too high. And it takes quite a while for the water table to recede to a low enough level - there's no rushing it either. Uggh at this crappy deluge season. And here I was nervous about a possible drought starting down in the S. Plains and working it's way up to the GL's. Now, it's apparent the other shoe has dropped and they're sharing their flooding. Can we not get "normal" any more? Heard on the news that Insurance companies (your line of work?) are having a record payout year to date, so prepare for everyone's rates to go up! And wishing for more damaging wx is only nice if you're not the one having to deal with it or pay for it in some fashion. 

[BrianJK]

[jaster220]

They might as well just start using the symbol when issuing the CPC outlook and local 7 day forecasts around these parts. Going to be difficult to get any real sustained summertime warmth going with the soils as saturated as they are. Cool summers and warm winters, how nice.

 

It's funny (not really ofc), I was just thinking on my morning commute how the patterns shift around in seemingly semi-random combinations, and sometimes it pops up boxcars, and sometime snake eyes. I cannot remember a worse overall combination in my adult life than what the past 3 MET seasons have dished out for this region. As posted elsewhere, the winter of 2011-12 was actually more of a winter than this one we just finished and we felt that was horrid at the time. Ofc, today I get to burn my one dry and sunny day on lawn chores in case it's another four days of rain on tap. We've raved about some great patterns we've seen in recent winters, and now it's hard not to rant when we're dealt this hand.

[jaster220]

Normally, I'd be like "meh" on some more rainfall in any season, but this has direct flood impacts for me personally, so here I am posting out of my season on a system. IWX has flood watches hoisted just to my south, and my local forecast is calling for quite a bit starting overnight. But, the folks at Intellicast are painting a slightly different scenario with huge differences for mby. They have Marshall riding the sharp cut-off on the NW edge. Unless this trends more NW, I could luck-out and just get grazed.

 

 

[Tom]

Had a real fun day yesterday as we took a day trip up into the mountains of Payson, AZ!  I'll post pictures of my 2 hikes at around 6,500-7,500ft elevation.  The one spot which struck me with beauty was Woods Canyon Lake up at around 7,500ft nestled at the top of a mountain ridge surrounded by Pine trees.  Oh, and I saw remnants of snow OTG from their solid Winter down here!

[Tom]

Heard there was some frost in S MI...any in your back yard Jaster/WestJim???

[Tom]

Chilly morning in parts of Wisco this morning...

 

[Tom]

After a brief heat wave over here (should hit low 100's this Friday), it's not often where you see the SW U.S. and GL's below normal at the same time.  I'm certainly going to enjoy the "cooler" temps over here as a cut-off system spins its way slowly towards us this Sun into early next week.  A 4-day stretch in the 70's this time of year is bonus time!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017050300/gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_5.png

[james1976]

Heard there was some frost in S MI...any in your back yard Jaster/WestJim???

We had light frost here! Waterloo got down to 31. Saw a few peeps scraping their car windows this morning.

[Tom]

We had light frost here! Waterloo got down to 31. Saw a few peeps scraping their car windows this morning.

That is not what you want to see in May!  Might be seeing a couple more days like that later in the weekend into early next week, but prob centered farther east.

[jaster220]

Heard there was some frost in S MI...any in your back yard Jaster/WestJim???

 

Not in Marshall, but as your map post shows, it actually got colder towards Lk Michigan and that's where I saw some in open fields. I'm fine without it at home. My Tiger Lillies got hit pretty hard last month when we had a hard freeze one morning.

[jaster220]

Normally, I'd be like "meh" on some more rainfall in any season, but this has direct flood impacts for me personally, so here I am posting out of my season on a system. IWX has flood watches hoisted just to my south, and my local forecast is calling for quite a bit starting overnight. But, the folks at Intellicast are painting a slightly different scenario with huge differences for mby. They have Marshall riding the sharp cut-off on the NW edge. Unless this trends more NW, I could luck-out and just get grazed.

 

20170503 I-cast GL's map 8pm 5-4.gif

 

 

 

So much for that. I see their local forecast goes totally against their future-cast map and delivers 1.7" of rain with more like a miserable November feel to it if those temps verify. It's not far from a frozen storm tbh. And where was this pattern all winter??   

[Tom]

I always seem to find my snow when adventuring out on hiking trips in this region.  This hike was at Woods Canyon Lake a top of Mogollon Rim (elevation 7,510 ft) with temps hovering in the upper 60's yesterday.  I was surprised to find remnants of a snow cover from what was a solid winter season around these parts.

 

 

 

Creek flow began in this open field which branched off of the lake along its many coves...

 

 

 

Another cove shot...

 

 

 

Some trail shots...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Finally, this was from Horton Creek Trail which started a little lower in elevation around 5,468 and peaked to 6,640 ft at the top where the creek flow begins.

 

It took about 1.5 hour to get to the top and this little cave feature is where the creek flow comes out of the mountainside...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Towering Pine Tree's allowed ample shade while walking through thick forest carved out by a groomed trail...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

The beginning of the Trail...

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

20170503 Thur-Fri.PNG

 

So much for that. I see their local forecast goes totally against their future-cast map and delivers 1.7" of rain with more like a miserable November feel to it if those temps verify. It's not far from a frozen storm tbh. And where was this pattern all winter?? 

12z Euro run...

 

[Tom]

12z Euro with another major storm and trough Day 9/10...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017050312/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017050312/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017050312/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017050312/ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017050312/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

[Tom]

After a hefty snow season (328"), Arizona Snowbowl, will be open for the first time in their history on Cinco De Mayo!

 

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona/2017/05/02/snowbowl-open-first-cinco-de-mayo/101181294/ 

[Tom]

Meantime, we hit our first hundo of the year...

[jaster220]

12z Euro with another major storm and trough Day 9/10...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017050312/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017050312/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017050312/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017050312/ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017050312/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

 

STOP! Uggh, such a kick in the nuts. Awesome winter pattern sets in and we get....wait for it....flooding - yay!

 

Awesome pic's Tom! Totally cool to be out west and have those options. Thanks for sharing..

[Tom]

STOP! Uggh, such a kick in the nuts. Awesome winter pattern sets in and we get....wait for it....flooding - yay!

 

Awesome pic's Tom! Totally cool to be out west and have those options. Thanks for sharing..

Look at the bright side (or not), at least when it cools off it dries out!

 

Edit: It gets wet where it has been dry, esp out here...we need it before the summer heat arrives!

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

[Niko]

Breezy, wet chilly day today. The rain fell continuously. More to come. Temps remained in the 40s. Some rain/snow mix possible Saturday. Crazy!

[jaster220]

Breezy, wet chilly day today. The rain fell continuously. More to come. Temps remained in the 40s. Some rain/snow mix possible Saturday. Crazy!

 

Yep

[westMJim]

Heard there was some frost in S MI...any in your back yard Jaster/WestJim???

Yes there was some frost on morning of the 3rd. GRR had a low of 35° and here at my house I had a low of 32°. There is a chance of frost here on Sunday morning and a good chance of widespread frost and freezing temperatures on Monday morning. If the skies clear and the winds go calm (as expected) we could see temps in the upper 20's. And yes the local fruit crop is very vulnerable.

[jaster220]

Looks like the models/maps with the sharp NW cut-off to the precip shield won out on this event, and I for one am really glad. Flood Advisory hoisted yesterday has been dropped already. Per KRMY ASOS unit, we've had only .4-.5" and it's moving east..

 

 

 

vs. current radar:

 

 

 

Ofc, had this been a major winter storm, this kinda bust would meet with vastly different sentiments!

[Tom]

Looks like the models/maps with the sharp NW cut-off to the precip shield won out on this event, and I for one am really glad. Flood Advisory hoisted yesterday has been dropped already. Per KRMY ASOS unit, we've had only .4-.5" and it's moving east..

 

20170503 I-cast GL's map 8pm 5-4.gif

 

vs. current radar:

 

20170505 Radar.PNG

 

Ofc, had this been a major winter storm, this kinda bust would meet with vastly different sentiments!

Good to hear! Riding the NW edge usually don't pan out as much as they do, esp when we want it most...during the Winter! Ha!

 

Today will be the 3rd straight day in the 100's. Could reach 105F and tie a record. Lovin' the trend in temps Sun-Thu around here. Hope to cash in on some showers/storms Mon/Tue.

[james1976]

Perfect weather last couple days. All sun and temps have overachieved. Near 70 yesterday and 75 today. Low 60s forecasted this weekend as a cold front drops in. Talkin light frost possible Sat nite!

[Hawkeye]

We reached 72 this afternoon with a generally moderate wind.  This is good stuff, especially after the dreadful week we recently had.

 

DVN is thinking frost will be a bigger deal up by Dubuque this weekend.  I noticed some of the least cold-hardy plants outside at the area garden centers got zapped by the frost early this week.

[Tom]

Broke a record yesterday as we topped out at 108F in PHX!  Woohooo!!  Now comes the big "cool down"...can't wait to enjoy some low 70's and chances of scattered storms.  Out here, tracking storms can get real fun, esp seeing them from a distance.  Due to the openness of the valley, winds from storms can become very strong and lighting can be violent.  Might create a Haboob if it works out just right.  Those typically happen later on in the season.

 

[westMJim]

The beginning of the Trail...

 

 

 

 

 

Nice pictures

[westMJim]

With the forecasted low tomorrow night in the upper 20’s we could be looking at a chance of a new record low. The current record low for May 8^th at Grand Rapids is 27° set in 1976. If the temperature falls below 31° this will be the coldest May 8^th since that record low of 27° set in 1976.

[Tom]

Nice pictures

Thanks!

 

@ Your comment regarding the record low potential. Yet another '76 analog on the table. Interesting

[james1976]

Diggin the '76 and '13 analogs.

Overachieving again today. Upper 60s instead of the forecasted low 60s.

[Tom]

Diggin the '76 and '13 analogs.

Overachieving again today. Upper 60s instead of the forecasted low 60s.

That good ol' May sunshine!

[Niko]

My lows Sunday night are forecast to be in the upper 20s.

[WBadgersW]

Nice pictures Tom. Im hoping to avoid the snow when I head out to Yosemite, but that looks unlikely.

[Tom]

Nice pictures Tom. Im hoping to avoid the snow when I head out to Yosemite, but that looks unlikely.

When you heading out to Yosemite?  That place is God's country and is certainly on my bucket list.  Stunning beauty everywhere the eye can see.  My cousins went there a year ago or so, the pictures I saw were absolutely stunning.  Have fun out there!  Take a lot of pics and post them if you would.