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May 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#101
Tom

Posted 10 May 2017 - 05:35 AM

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Our weather is looking increasingly warm this weekend into next week.  Models have been wavering with the position of the front, but the northward surge is currently winning.

Looks like you'll be able to enjoy some prime time late-Spring wx!  Have you planted your crop yet?



#102
Tom

Posted 10 May 2017 - 05:39 AM

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Boy, the 00z Euro is showing some real summer time warmth next week for many of you in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  Hope it materializes for ya'll.  Especially, those near the Lakes which have been so cold lately.


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#103
Tom

Posted 10 May 2017 - 05:53 AM

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Heading out to Sedona this morning for a day trip and do some hiking.  Will post some pics when I get back.  Before I do that, the JAMSTEC just came out with it's May run and I'm going to digest it and post some maps before I leave!



#104
Tom

Posted 10 May 2017 - 06:02 AM

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Who's ready to see the JAMSTEC's trend for next Autumn/Winter???  Ok, ok...here it is...'13-'14 repeat but with heavy precip???  That late 70's show is looking good boys and girls!  Second run in a row that is showing an Ice Box nation east of the Rockies.

 

Autumn...

 

temp2.glob.SON2017.1may2017.gif

 

tprep.glob.SON2017.1may2017.gif

 

 

Winter...storm track may be a bit farther south out west into SoCal.  CFSv2 is also hinting at the same.

 

 

temp2.glob.DJF2018.1may2017.gif

 

tprep.glob.DJF2018.1may2017.gif


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#105
Hawkeye

Posted 10 May 2017 - 02:57 PM

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Have you planted your crop yet?

 

You must be thinking of some other poster who farms.  From what I've seen, local fields are mixed... some look plowed and ready/planted, some don't.  I'll be getting my peppers in this weekend.  I have a lot of other flowers that need to be planted, but I have to wait til the ground dries again.


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season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#106
Tom

Posted 11 May 2017 - 05:50 AM

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Chitown peeps are poised to finally have a stretch of summery weather starting this weekend into at least the middle of next week.  70's and low 80's are going to feel great I'm sure.

 

The weather out here has been truly amazing.  Had a real great time hiking up in Sedona yesterday, although, it was a bit cloudy and chilly.  There was a stiff breeze inside the canyons.  Temps were in the upper 50's (which I sure ain't used to).  

 

That day, I came up with the great idea to drive north into Flagstaff and go see their ski resort Snowbowl.  They had an epic ski season and stayed open for the first time in their history through Cinco De Mayo weekend.  The following Monday (15th), it snowed 5" and I had to pay a visit.   You know me and my snow fix!  I'll post some pics later today.


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#107
jaster220

Posted 11 May 2017 - 06:49 AM

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Chitown peeps are poised to finally have a stretch of summery weather starting this weekend into at least the middle of next week.  70's and low 80's are going to feel great I'm sure.

 

The weather out here has been truly amazing.  Had a real great time hiking up in Sedona yesterday, although, it was a bit cloudy and chilly.  There was a stiff breeze inside the canyons.  Temps were in the upper 50's (which I sure ain't used to).  

 

That day, I came up with the great idea to drive north into Flagstaff and go see their ski resort Snowbowl.  They had an epic ski season and stayed open for the first time in their history through Cinco De Mayo weekend.  The following Monday (15th), it snowed 5" and I had to pay a visit.   You know me and my snow fix!  I'll post some pics later today.

 

:D B)  You know it! Mowed my lawn in shorts last evening. Hit 70º in Marshall which was 3 days early based on GRR's forecast for the week. I'll take that nice surprise any time. Looks like a nice Mom's Day on tap as well. Remember to hug your Mom, if you've got one! :P


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#108
Tom

Posted 11 May 2017 - 06:57 AM

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:D B)  You know it! Mowed my lawn in shorts last evening. Hit 70º in Marshall which was 3 days early based on GRR's forecast for the week. I'll take that nice surprise any time. Looks like a nice Mom's Day on tap as well. Remember to hug your Mom, if you've got one! :P

It's going to be a lovely Mother's Day weekend for you guys back home.  Not to shabby out here to!  Speaking of cutting grass, I kinda miss it actually and the smell of a freshly mowed lawn.  As you can imagine, it's a different world out here.  There are some things I miss doing back home in the Spring but the weather out here counters those things pretty quickly.

 

I'm worried about a cool/wet pattern for Memorial Day weekend around the Lakes/Midwest.  I usually come back home by then but may extend it out a little longer if trends continue.  Another strong trough is going to make it's way into the 4 corners next week and drop temps into the low 80's again!  Bonus time!


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#109
Tom

Posted 11 May 2017 - 07:00 AM

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Today's JMA weeklies showing the trough Week 2-4...

 

 



#110
Tom

Posted 11 May 2017 - 07:53 AM

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Adventured out to conquer the most popular trail in Sedona...West Fork Trail...every time I visit Sedona, I admire both the beauty and energetic vibe from Nature's beauty.  Nevertheless, here are some pics from the hike...

 

18341776_10210738907122779_2639418183847

 

18403470_10210738908682818_5718219066633

 

 

18342481_10210738909762845_1328932836543

 

 

 

18342731_10210738910842872_1594184112928

 

18342788_10210738911082878_668900438249218342707_10210738911722894_7445770535285

 

18425061_10210738913482938_3238183204027

 

18423837_10210738914522964_9121053601305


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#111
Tom

Posted 11 May 2017 - 08:00 AM

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Finally, I was determined to drive up to Flagstaff (only a short trip north) that took less than an hour to Snowbowl ski resort.  Gotta say, it got dang cold once we hit Flagstaff which has an elevation just about 7,000 ft.  Snowbowl has a peak elevation of 11,500 ft.

 

18341793_10210739010525364_8988356449892

 

 

 

 

The drive up the mountain side begins...hints of snow creeping steadily on the way up...gorgeous Aspen's along the way...

 

18425296_10210739011525389_8783418439686

 

 

 

18425527_10210739012085403_1831802505860

 

 

18342443_10210739012645417_8569710331603

 

18341807_10210739013165430_4417725546839

 

18342508_10210739013645442_1949150978166

 

18301885_10210739014925474_4985049570045

 

 

 

18424102_10210739015405486_4106333815651

 

 

 

18011009_10210739016125504_7504867660163


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#112
Tom

Posted 11 May 2017 - 05:55 PM

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Looking very nice for the remainder of May for a lot of the peeps who have been so chilly according to the Euro...

 

C_lIfuEW0AElVkI.jpg



#113
james1976

Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:26 AM

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Winter wonderland! Nice pics
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#114
james1976

Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:52 AM

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Who's ready to see the JAMSTEC's trend for next Autumn/Winter??? Ok, ok...here it is...'13-'14 repeat but with heavy precip??? That late 70's show is looking good boys and girls! Second run in a row that is showing an Ice Box nation east of the Rockies.

Autumn...

temp2.glob.SON2017.1may2017.gif

tprep.glob.SON2017.1may2017.gif


Winter...storm track may be a bit farther south out west into SoCal. CFSv2 is also hinting at the same.


temp2.glob.DJF2018.1may2017.gif

tprep.glob.DJF2018.1may2017.gif

Dont get me excited when its only May😛
Would be fun indeed. I believe 13-14 Waterloo was just a few inches shy of all time snowfall. And it was very cold. Harshest winter I can remember.
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#115
Tom

Posted 12 May 2017 - 06:25 AM

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Dont get me excited when its only May
Would be fun indeed. I believe 13-14 Waterloo was just a few inches shy of all time snowfall. And it was very cold. Harshest winter I can remember.

Enjoy the summer time warmth coming your guys way starting this weekend.  About time it starts feeling like May (or summer), which ever you prefer, to get out and about, grilling, enjoy the outdoors, bon fires...the whole 9.


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#116
Tom

Posted 12 May 2017 - 06:42 AM

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The N PAC waters are still relatively colder than normal, with a pocket of coldest anamolies that seem to be shifting westward, NW of Hawaii.  The global models are forecasting this to be the theme over the summer months.  It'll be interesting to monitor these waters over the course of this summer season into the early Autumn.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

 

CFSv2 weekly summer SST trend...

 

glbSSTSeaInd2.gif



#117
jaster220

Posted 12 May 2017 - 08:11 AM

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Enjoy the summer time warmth coming your guys way starting this weekend.  About time it starts feeling like May (or summer), which ever you prefer, to get out and about, grilling, enjoy the outdoors, bon fires...the whole 9.

 

Now that March has exited the building, let May rule! The mid-month turnaround appears to be hitting right on schedule. Quite the stretch we're enjoying. About 10 deg's cooler by the big lake, but anywhere else across SWMI is getting the royal spring treatment. :)

 

:(  8 days ago:

 

 

:D  Today's plan!

 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#118
Hawkeye

Posted 12 May 2017 - 11:34 AM

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The euro has lows here in the upper 60s a couple times next week.  We're going right into summer.


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season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#119
Tom

Posted 12 May 2017 - 02:56 PM

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The sun has been active in April but has since gone quiet and already surpassing the number of sun spots last year.  Wonder how low she goes this year???

 

 

 

SUNSPOT COUNTS ARE PLUMMETING: Today marks the 33rd day in 2017 that the sun has been blank--no sunspots. This exceeds the total number of spotless days in all of 2016 (32). The accelerating pace of spotlessness is a sign that Solar Minimum is approaching. Forecasters expect the sunspot cycle, which swings like a pendulum between high and low sunspot number every ~11 years, to reach its nadir in 2019-2020. Stay tuned for more blank suns.

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#120
Tom

Posted 13 May 2017 - 06:51 AM

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The CFSv2 monthlies are now out into November and interestingly enough, well (at least to me), the model is showing an extraordinarily fast start to winter in the Arctic regions and particularly on our side of the Pole.

 

usT2mMonInd4.gif

 

usT2mMonInd5.gif

 

usT2mMonInd6.gif

 

Furthermore, the trough/ridge placement in the N PAC is eye candy as well as the modiki Nino.

 

glbz700SeaInd6.gif

 

 

glbSSTSeaInd6.gif



#121
OKwx2k4

Posted 13 May 2017 - 10:34 AM

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I love those maps. If they keep looking like that thru June-July, I'll probably re-up my WxBell subscription soon. Need to win a good poker tournament again first though before I'll do that. Lol.
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#122
Tom

Posted 13 May 2017 - 02:32 PM

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I love those maps. If they keep looking like that thru June-July, I'll probably re-up my WxBell subscription soon. Need to win a good poker tournament again first though before I'll do that. Lol.


I agree. The CFSv2 did very well as far as forecasting the arctic temps over the summer last year and into the Fall. We just need next years north Pacific pattern to play ball.

Did you get hit by the severe storms last week?? Parts of E OK got hit pretty good.

#123
Tom

Posted 14 May 2017 - 06:15 AM

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Interestingly, Northern Hemisphere snow cover near decadal highs while last year it was the complete opposite...should help keep the arctic cooler this summer if it persists.

 

multisensor_4km_nh_snow_extent_by_year_g



#124
Tom

Posted 14 May 2017 - 06:31 AM

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Skilling's team is forecasting upper 80's back home on Tuesday!  Pretty impressive warmth on the way as well as severe wx chances on Wednesday for the area.  Nice stretch of summer time weather for you guys out that way.


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#125
Tom

Posted 14 May 2017 - 10:51 AM

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I believe the CPC updates their Seasonal Outlook later this week on Thursday.  Will post them as they update.  Looking forward to seeing their official summer outlook as well as how the Autumn is trending.  For reference, here is their recent Summer and Autumn outlooks so we can gauge how they will trend later this week.

 

 



#126
OKwx2k4

Posted 14 May 2017 - 10:58 AM

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I agree. The CFSv2 did very well as far as forecasting the arctic temps over the summer last year and into the Fall. We just need next years north Pacific pattern to play ball.

Did you get hit by the severe storms last week?? Parts of E OK got hit pretty good.


Got hit by several rounds of storms last week. Luckily several of the storms were weakening slightly as they were passing or it would have been pretty exciting.

#127
OKwx2k4

Posted 14 May 2017 - 11:01 AM

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Tom, I also really like how nearly every seasonal model basically has a huge trough parked in the center of the CONUS for summer. I hope they're right.
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#128
westMJim

Posted 14 May 2017 - 12:04 PM

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This has turned out to be a great Mother’s day weather wise. With brilliant sunshine and temperatures in the upper 60’s to low 70’s Off to our north while still sunny the temperatures are cooler to colder with temps in the 50’s and low 60’s in norther lower to the low 40’s to mid 50’s in upper Michigan. Looking ahead we look to get warm (mid 80’s) and then cold (frost and freezing temps?) I might have to cover the tomato plants the week of the 22nd. we shall see.



#129
Tom

Posted 15 May 2017 - 06:29 AM

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Hope everyone had an enjoyable Mother's Day weekend!  Thank goodness mother nature cooperated for pretty much all of our members.  However, as we begin a new work week nature will switch gears and fire up the cylinders and ignite the atmosphere.  The northern plains have been very dry over the past few weeks but now parts of MN/WI are trending very wet over the next 10 days.

 

C_3y62lWsAAoLGd.jpg



#130
Tom

Posted 15 May 2017 - 07:09 AM

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I have been worried about a cooler and possible unsettled pattern heading into Memorial Day weekend for the Lakes region.  Both EPS/GEFS are starting to illustrate a big trough by Day 9.

 

00z EPS...

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

 

 

Resulting 850's are largely below normal next week...

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

 

 

 

We'll see how things shake out but the farther north you go towards the Lakes it may be drier under a cool Canadian HP.  Great bon fire weather???



#131
james1976

Posted 15 May 2017 - 07:27 AM

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Yeah they are talking 90 tomorrow and low 60s by Friday😮
Lot of rain/storm chances coming as well.

#132
westMJim

Posted 15 May 2017 - 08:08 AM

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The first half of May has been on the cool side in the state of Michigan Even after 6 days in a row of above average temperatures (at Grand Rapids) the first half of May has been well below average across the state. Here are Michigan’s the current departures from average. Grand Rapids -4.0° Lansing -3.6° Muskegon -3.7° Detroit -5.1° ° Flint -4.3° Saginaw -3.9°  Alpena -3.1° Houghton Lake -3.5° The Sault -2.4° and Marquette -4.7° We shall see if the 2nd half can make up this difference.



#133
jaster220

Posted 15 May 2017 - 09:13 AM

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This has turned out to be a great Mother’s day weather wise. With brilliant sunshine and temperatures in the upper 60’s to low 70’s Off to our north while still sunny the temperatures are cooler to colder with temps in the 50’s and low 60’s in norther lower to the low 40’s to mid 50’s in upper Michigan. Looking ahead we look to get warm (mid 80’s) and then cold (frost and freezing temps?) I might have to cover the tomato plants the week of the 22nd. we shall see.

 

And, with the nicer temps and sunshine has come the flip from extreme wet to totally dry. 10 days and counting without rain and tonight's chance has faded to the point I've written off anything beyond a pavement dampening and wouldn't be surprised with a total whiff. Grass is still green so normally I'd be fine except for my turf transplanting. Having to keep it watered is kind of annoying after how wet this spring was up til the 5th :lol:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#134
jaster220

Posted 15 May 2017 - 09:19 AM

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The first half of May has been on the cool side in the state of Michigan Even after 6 days in a row of above average temperatures (at Grand Rapids) the first half of May has been well below average across the state. Here are Michigan’s the current departures from average. Grand Rapids -4.0° Lansing -3.6° Muskegon -3.7° Detroit -5.1° ° Flint -4.3° Saginaw -3.9°  Alpena -3.1° Houghton Lake -3.5° The Sault -2.4° and Marquette -4.7° We shall see if the 2nd half can make up this difference.

 

Wow, I knew it was bad, but in Marshall the last 3 days were 69, 73, and a toasty 74 yesterday. Not a huge amount above our normal highs, but it sure has felt like it with the misery that was early May. Your departure values just confirm how horrible it was to still be that low! Ugly, ugly start to my fave warm season month


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#135
jaster220

Posted 15 May 2017 - 09:23 AM

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Hope everyone had an enjoyable Mother's Day weekend!  Thank goodness mother nature cooperated for pretty much all of our members.  However, as we begin a new work week nature will switch gears and fire up the cylinders and ignite the atmosphere.  The northern plains have been very dry over the past few weeks but now parts of MN/WI are trending very wet over the next 10 days.

 

C_3y62lWsAAoLGd.jpg

 

That paltry green shading over extreme SWMI would continue the dryness in progress. Need to get lucky and at least reach the blue threshold over a 10 day period. Seems we've fought a mini-drought around this time the past few early summers. In 2012, I had .50" of nice soaking strati-form rain on June 1st, then not a drop for weeks! So hate that kind of pattern imbalance. 


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#136
james1976

Posted 15 May 2017 - 11:23 AM

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Storm with 50mph wind gusts and nickel sized hail moving in. 82 and humid

#137
Tom

Posted 15 May 2017 - 03:08 PM

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89F in DSM...impressive heat!  A lot of low 90's in NE as well...



#138
Tom

Posted 15 May 2017 - 05:24 PM

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Another '76 analog??? Just saw the local wx segment on TV and they said the strongest wind gust recorded in PHX was 86mph on 7/7/76 from a Monsoon! Intriguing.

FWIW, climate models are indicating an active Monsoon around these parts for the summer.

#139
james1976

Posted 16 May 2017 - 05:26 AM

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Severe weather went barely around me. Hail and wind damage reports N IA.

#140
Tom

Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:19 AM

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Chitown will be warmer than PHX today...bonus weather for me out here with a high of 75F.  You could say it may be a bit hot and humid with temps in the upper 80's back home.  Enjoy the storms that fire up today!


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#141
Tom

Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:30 AM

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Very impressive snows expected later this work week for the slopes near Aspen/Vail/Breckenridge.  00z EPS showing max 20" amounts just east of there.  I drove through this area last November and I'm imagining how it will look like with all the new fallen snow.

 

C_8W7YNV0AA-0eW.jpg


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#142
jaster220

Posted 16 May 2017 - 07:26 AM

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Swing-n-a-miss on rainfall in Marshall overnight (as feared). About 9:20 there was a nice line coming onshore but it split apart and fizzled before reaching mby. Heard several rumbles of thunder even, it was that close, but alas - nada. GRR's bullish on the weekend system dropping a potential 1" qpf so we'll see how that looks as we get closer.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#143
Tom

Posted 16 May 2017 - 08:13 AM

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12z GFS trying to paint snow flakes flying in W/NW NE...this I gotta see...on May 21st...

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_19.png



#144
OKwx2k4

Posted 16 May 2017 - 10:06 AM

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Another '76 analog??? Just saw the local wx segment on TV and they said the strongest wind gust recorded in PHX was 86mph on 7/7/76 from a Monsoon! Intriguing.

FWIW, climate models are indicating an active Monsoon around these parts for the summer.


If this verifies, could also mean a very nice and cool summer to the east of the monsoonal areas. I'm seeing many indicators that this could be a really cool and beautiful summer for a lot of us. (If you don't like extreme heat.)
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#145
Tom

Posted 16 May 2017 - 11:56 AM

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CPC is showing a huge area of below normal temps after a week of summer fun...Memorial Day weekend is not looking fun, esp if you look at the 12z Euro and what its showing for Day 9/10 as there is likely a re-amplifying trough swinging through.

 

 

 

 

610temp.new.gif

 

814temp.new.gif



#146
jaster220

Posted 16 May 2017 - 12:07 PM

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CPC is showing a huge area of below normal temps after a week of summer fun...Memorial Day weekend is not looking fun, esp if you look at the 12z Euro and what its showing for Day 9/10 as there is likely a re-amplifying trough swinging through.

 

 

 

 

610temp.new.gif

 

814temp.new.gif

 

We've already been hotter than the entire summer of '92. I've been there, done that. May might finish below normal overall, but let's get a decent summer before jumping into an early autumn


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#147
Tom

Posted 16 May 2017 - 12:29 PM

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We've already been hotter than the entire summer of '92. I've been there, done that. May might finish below normal overall, but let's get a decent summer before jumping into an early autumn


I'm already planning my return after Memorial Day weekend. If not the weekend after, then sometime during the first week of June. The heat is gonna be turned up over here so it's time to go!
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#148
james1976

Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:44 PM

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Oh yeahhhhh............massive T-Storm complex moving in!! Should be storming within a half hour. Hit 90 today and humid and windy. Out on the deck this evening grilling chicken and potatoes and watching the storm build. Love this kinda weather. Currently in a Severe T-Storm Watch til 3am. Reports of 70mph wind and half-dollar sized hail in W IA this evening!
​Friday-Tuesday they are talking 60s with many rain chances. Fall is coming! :P


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#149
Tom

Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:49 PM

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Oh yeahhhhh............massive T-Storm complex moving in!! Should be storming within a half hour. Hit 90 today and humid and windy. Out on the deck this evening grilling chicken and potatoes and watching the storm build. Love this kinda weather. Currently in a Severe T-Storm Watch til 3am. Reports of 70mph wind and half-dollar sized hail in W IA this evening!
​Friday-Tuesday they are talking 60s with many rain chances. Fall is coming! :P

That's what I'm talking about!  The smell of summer in combo with mother nature...can't get any better...enjoy!


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#150
james1976

Posted 17 May 2017 - 03:44 AM

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Thought i was gonna get rocked last night. Only half inch in the gauge. Got really windy before the storm hit but then kinda petered out. Expecting another round today before the cooler air arrives.