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May 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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When you heading out to Yosemite? That place is God's country and is certainly on my bucket list. Stunning beauty everywhere the eye can see. My cousins went there a year ago or so, the pictures I saw were absolutely stunning. Have fun out there! Take a lot of pics and post them if you would.

My hike is from June 30th-July 7th. Trust me, there's gonna be a lot of pics. This will be my first time in Yosemite. I'm also heading to zion beforehand so I get both desert heat and snow. Wonderful contrast.

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My hike is from June 30th-July 7th. Trust me, there's gonna be a lot of pics. This will be my first time in Yosemite. I'm also heading to zion beforehand so I get both desert heat and snow. Wonderful contrast.

Sounds like an epic journey!  Zion is fantastic and plenty of great trails.  I only drove through the national park snapping photos along the way.  We only spent half the day there but it was well worth with it.

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We had a pretty great weekend with upper 60s to low 70s.  There has been a major lack of south wind the last couple weeks, though, which is keeping some bird migrants away.  I'm still waiting for catbirds, orioles, and hummers.  They are officially getting a bit late.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Impressive low's for early May!  Had a high of 71F here yesterday, more than 30F+ off the record high of 108F on Friday.  Ahhh, feels just great.  

 

The cycling wx pattern continues and the storm system that dumped close to a Foot of snow in the SoCal mountains yesterday will be slowly drifting east into the 4 corners region.  Looking forward to some beneficial rains out here.

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CFSv2 trying to tease us next cold season???  Sneak peak into the models first glance at next Winter's 500mb pattern...looks like that late 70's show...

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017050712/cfs-mon_01_z500aMean_month_npac_7.png

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CFSv2 trying to tease us next cold season??? Sneak peak into the models first glance at next Winter's 500mb pattern...looks like that late 70's show...

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017050712/cfs-mon_01_z500aMean_month_npac_7.png

Only 7 more months to go. Lol.

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Only 7 more months to go. Lol.

Keep that trough NW of Hawaii!  Why do I fantasize so much about historic Winters in the Spring??  I'm just a weather nut!  Anyway, I'm definitely looking forward to an enjoyable summer season in the Midwest.  Doesn't look like a repeat of last year's non-stop heat and humidity...yuk!  Should be active with plenty chances of storms down your way and up towards the GL's.

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I had a low of 29° at the airport the official low as 31° So no new record here at GRR. At Lansing the low was 28° and at Muskegon the low was 32°. All in all a very cold May night!

 

 

KRMY hit 25º about 6:30 this morning out at the airport about a mile south of mby. I did see a ton of frost across the countryside, but really didn't feel that bad nor did I have frost at my place in town at 6 am. The windchill was so biting yesterday, this morning's calm took the sting out of the cold temps.

 

Interesting note from NWS Chicago.

 

" Chicago's high temperatures averaged 59.3F during the last 2 weeks of February. So far this May the high temperatures have averaged 56F!"

 

Yep, we've got some krazy month-swapping in progress so far this year. The only good thing I like about it is the chill is extending the blossom time a bit longer and yesterday was simply magnificent!

 

Impressive low's for early May!  Had a high of 71F here yesterday, more than 30F+ off the record high of 108F on Friday.  Ahhh, feels just great.  

 

The cycling wx pattern continues and the storm system that dumped close to a Foot of snow in the SoCal mountains yesterday will be slowly drifting east into the 4 corners region.  Looking forward to some beneficial rains out here.

 

Looking forward to a nice dry stretch, though my turf transplanting project will require manual watering. Rather do that than the alternative. I see farmers are working around their field ponds to get the soil ready to the extent possible. Sure glad I don't live in Mis(ery)souri - yikes!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It is HOT outside. My car when I drove through downtown Lincoln said it was 97 outside. Think it's time to go running outside for the first time, I think the ladies will appreciate it :P

Suns out Guns out!

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A decent little cluster of storms passed through Cedar Rapids late this evening.  I received some heavy rain(0.50"), pea size hail, and vivid lightning/thunder.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Keep that trough NW of Hawaii! Why do I fantasize so much about historic Winters in the Spring?? I'm just a weather nut! Anyway, I'm definitely looking forward to an enjoyable summer season in the Midwest. Doesn't look like a repeat of last year's non-stop heat and humidity...yuk! Should be active with plenty chances of storms down your way and up towards the GL's.

No worries. I wasn't criticizing at all. I do the same thing. Lol. Just seems like warmness and crap for 2.5 years running now. Wish I could skip this summer and go straight to late fall.

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No worries. I wasn't criticizing at all. I do the same thing. Lol. Just seems like warmness and crap for 2.5 years running now. Wish I could skip this summer and go straight to late fall.

Let's see how things shake out this summer.  Meantime, the Arctic temps have trended below normal since we entered May.  CFSv2 having the right idea of a cooler than normal summer in the Arctic?  We shall see.

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Our weather is looking increasingly warm this weekend into next week.  Models have been wavering with the position of the front, but the northward surge is currently winning.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Our weather is looking increasingly warm this weekend into next week.  Models have been wavering with the position of the front, but the northward surge is currently winning.

Looks like you'll be able to enjoy some prime time late-Spring wx!  Have you planted your crop yet?

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Boy, the 00z Euro is showing some real summer time warmth next week for many of you in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  Hope it materializes for ya'll.  Especially, those near the Lakes which have been so cold lately.

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Heading out to Sedona this morning for a day trip and do some hiking.  Will post some pics when I get back.  Before I do that, the JAMSTEC just came out with it's May run and I'm going to digest it and post some maps before I leave!

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Who's ready to see the JAMSTEC's trend for next Autumn/Winter???  Ok, ok...here it is...'13-'14 repeat but with heavy precip???  That late 70's show is looking good boys and girls!  Second run in a row that is showing an Ice Box nation east of the Rockies.

 

Autumn...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2017.1may2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2017.1may2017.gif

 

 

Winter...storm track may be a bit farther south out west into SoCal.  CFSv2 is also hinting at the same.

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2018.1may2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2018.1may2017.gif

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Have you planted your crop yet?

 

You must be thinking of some other poster who farms.  From what I've seen, local fields are mixed... some look plowed and ready/planted, some don't.  I'll be getting my peppers in this weekend.  I have a lot of other flowers that need to be planted, but I have to wait til the ground dries again.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Chitown peeps are poised to finally have a stretch of summery weather starting this weekend into at least the middle of next week.  70's and low 80's are going to feel great I'm sure.

 

The weather out here has been truly amazing.  Had a real great time hiking up in Sedona yesterday, although, it was a bit cloudy and chilly.  There was a stiff breeze inside the canyons.  Temps were in the upper 50's (which I sure ain't used to).  

 

That day, I came up with the great idea to drive north into Flagstaff and go see their ski resort Snowbowl.  They had an epic ski season and stayed open for the first time in their history through Cinco De Mayo weekend.  The following Monday (15th), it snowed 5" and I had to pay a visit.   You know me and my snow fix!  I'll post some pics later today.

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Chitown peeps are poised to finally have a stretch of summery weather starting this weekend into at least the middle of next week.  70's and low 80's are going to feel great I'm sure.

 

The weather out here has been truly amazing.  Had a real great time hiking up in Sedona yesterday, although, it was a bit cloudy and chilly.  There was a stiff breeze inside the canyons.  Temps were in the upper 50's (which I sure ain't used to).  

 

That day, I came up with the great idea to drive north into Flagstaff and go see their ski resort Snowbowl.  They had an epic ski season and stayed open for the first time in their history through Cinco De Mayo weekend.  The following Monday (15th), it snowed 5" and I had to pay a visit.   You know me and my snow fix!  I'll post some pics later today.

 

:D B)  You know it! Mowed my lawn in shorts last evening. Hit 70º in Marshall which was 3 days early based on GRR's forecast for the week. I'll take that nice surprise any time. Looks like a nice Mom's Day on tap as well. Remember to hug your Mom, if you've got one! :P

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:D B)  You know it! Mowed my lawn in shorts last evening. Hit 70º in Marshall which was 3 days early based on GRR's forecast for the week. I'll take that nice surprise any time. Looks like a nice Mom's Day on tap as well. Remember to hug your Mom, if you've got one! :P

It's going to be a lovely Mother's Day weekend for you guys back home.  Not to shabby out here to!  Speaking of cutting grass, I kinda miss it actually and the smell of a freshly mowed lawn.  As you can imagine, it's a different world out here.  There are some things I miss doing back home in the Spring but the weather out here counters those things pretty quickly.

 

I'm worried about a cool/wet pattern for Memorial Day weekend around the Lakes/Midwest.  I usually come back home by then but may extend it out a little longer if trends continue.  Another strong trough is going to make it's way into the 4 corners next week and drop temps into the low 80's again!  Bonus time!

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Adventured out to conquer the most popular trail in Sedona...West Fork Trail...every time I visit Sedona, I admire both the beauty and energetic vibe from Nature's beauty.  Nevertheless, here are some pics from the hike...

 

18341776_10210738907122779_2639418183847

 

18403470_10210738908682818_5718219066633

 

 

18342481_10210738909762845_1328932836543

 

 

 

18342731_10210738910842872_1594184112928

 

18342788_10210738911082878_668900438249218342707_10210738911722894_7445770535285

 

18425061_10210738913482938_3238183204027

 

18423837_10210738914522964_9121053601305

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Finally, I was determined to drive up to Flagstaff (only a short trip north) that took less than an hour to Snowbowl ski resort.  Gotta say, it got dang cold once we hit Flagstaff which has an elevation just about 7,000 ft.  Snowbowl has a peak elevation of 11,500 ft.

 

18341793_10210739010525364_8988356449892

 

 

 

 

The drive up the mountain side begins...hints of snow creeping steadily on the way up...gorgeous Aspen's along the way...

 

18425296_10210739011525389_8783418439686

 

 

 

18425527_10210739012085403_1831802505860

 

 

18342443_10210739012645417_8569710331603

 

18341807_10210739013165430_4417725546839

 

18342508_10210739013645442_1949150978166

 

18301885_10210739014925474_4985049570045

 

 

 

18424102_10210739015405486_4106333815651

 

 

 

18011009_10210739016125504_7504867660163

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Dont get me excited when its only May

Would be fun indeed. I believe 13-14 Waterloo was just a few inches shy of all time snowfall. And it was very cold. Harshest winter I can remember.

Enjoy the summer time warmth coming your guys way starting this weekend.  About time it starts feeling like May (or summer), which ever you prefer, to get out and about, grilling, enjoy the outdoors, bon fires...the whole 9.

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The N PAC waters are still relatively colder than normal, with a pocket of coldest anamolies that seem to be shifting westward, NW of Hawaii.  The global models are forecasting this to be the theme over the summer months.  It'll be interesting to monitor these waters over the course of this summer season into the early Autumn.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

 

CFSv2 weekly summer SST trend...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd2.gif

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Enjoy the summer time warmth coming your guys way starting this weekend.  About time it starts feeling like May (or summer), which ever you prefer, to get out and about, grilling, enjoy the outdoors, bon fires...the whole 9.

 

Now that March has exited the building, let May rule! The mid-month turnaround appears to be hitting right on schedule. Quite the stretch we're enjoying. About 10 deg's cooler by the big lake, but anywhere else across SWMI is getting the royal spring treatment. :)

 

:(  8 days ago:

 

 

 

:D  Today's plan!

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The euro has lows here in the upper 60s a couple times next week.  We're going right into summer.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The sun has been active in April but has since gone quiet and already surpassing the number of sun spots last year.  Wonder how low she goes this year???

 

 

 

SUNSPOT COUNTS ARE PLUMMETING: Today marks the 33rd day in 2017 that the sun has been blank--no sunspots. This exceeds the total number of spotless days in all of 2016 (32). The accelerating pace of spotlessness is a sign that Solar Minimum is approaching. Forecasters expect the sunspot cycle, which swings like a pendulum between high and low sunspot number every ~11 years, to reach its nadir in 2019-2020. Stay tuned for more blank suns.
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The CFSv2 monthlies are now out into November and interestingly enough, well (at least to me), the model is showing an extraordinarily fast start to winter in the Arctic regions and particularly on our side of the Pole.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd4.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd5.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd6.gif

 

Furthermore, the trough/ridge placement in the N PAC is eye candy as well as the modiki Nino.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd6.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif

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