Summer 2017 Predictions

[Scott]

Here's mine:

 

http://images.summitpost.org/original/998111.jpg

 

I am betting that it will be more accurate than the Farmer's Almanac, Accuweather, and NOAA.

[Guest happ]

Here's mine:

 

 

I am betting that it will be more accurate than the Farmer's Almanac, Accuweather, and NOAA.

 

'Just Shoot Me"

[Jesse]

Hot*

 

 

 

*Addition of a second "t" pending.

[Phil]

You forgot to add North Bend:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E96886E2-83AE-4D27-AEBE-8601363135AB_zps79jpf1vq.jpg

[Anti Marine Layer]

Fairbanks is warmer than San Francisco during July and August.

[Scott]

Fairbanks is warmer than San Francisco during July and August.

 

True; the triangle with the "Cold" pointed to is meant to be Denali/Mt. McKinley.

[wx_statman]

I predict a general reduction in sun angle after June 21st, with reasonable certainty. 

[Front Ranger]

I like 2014/1991/1982 as primary analogs.

[Phil]

1943, 1951, 1980, 1983, 1993, 1995, 2012.

[TT-SEA]

1943, 1951, 1980, 1983, 1993, 1995, 2012.

 

1943, 1951, 1995, and most of 2012 were spectacular summers here.

 

1983 and 1993 were volcanic influenced and were pretty terrible until late.  

 

So it will be either a spectacular summer or a terrible summer.   I already knew that.   Can't be both!  

[Front Ranger]

1943, 1951, 1980, 1983, 1993, 1995, 2012.

 

Couple of those are recycled from last year's predictions. 

[Phil]

Couple of those are recycled from last year's predictions.

Correct.

 

Dateline subsidence, weak IO/EASM under more westerly 50mb QBO and warmer EPAC. This is a nearly unanimous cold signal for the western United States during the early/middl portion of the warm season.

[Phil]

1943, 1951, 1995, and most of 2012 were spectacular summers here.

 

1983 and 1993 were volcanic influenced and were pretty terrible until late.

 

So it will be either a spectacular summer or a terrible summer. I already knew that. Can't be both!

I don't know what "fantastic" means, so I can't comment on that.

 

It will likely be cooler than average, though.

[TT-SEA]

I don't know what "fantastic" means, so I can't comment on that.

 

It will likely be cooler than average, though.

Many of those summers were very sunny and dry. The definition of a fanastic summer here for most people.

 

1983 and 1993 were unusually rainy and on many days. The opposite of fanastic for most people.

 

The difference between being remembered as a great summer or a terrible summer. Being slightly cooler or warmer is not that important. A dry, sunny pattern for most of the summer is what I am hoping for this year.

 

Your analogs are on the complete opposite ends of the spectrum in that regard.

[TT-SEA]

As a side note... I have long thought that 1951 was one of the best summers in recorded history here and 1983 was one of the worst. And they are both analogs! Rendering this analysis meaningless to me personally.

[Front Ranger]

As a side note... I have long thought that 1951 was one of the best summers in recorded history here and 1983 was one of the worst. And they are both analogs! Rendering this analysis meaningless to me personally.

The odds favor a warmer/drier summer than 1983. Especially with no super volcanos spouting off.

[Phil]

Many of those summers were very sunny and dry. The definition of a fanastic summer here for most people.

 

1983 and 1993 were unusually rainy and on many days. The opposite of fanastic for most people.

 

The difference between being remembered as a great summer or a terrible summer. Being slightly cooler or warmer is not that important. A dry, sunny pattern for most of the summer is what I am hoping for this year.

 

Your analogs are on the complete opposite ends of the spectrum in that regard.

Well, minor fluctuations in the jet stream can make huge local differences in precipitation there, it seems. I've structured my analogs to reflect a range of variance that theoretically represents a the spread potential outcomes this summer.

 

No, this year won't be a "repeat" of 1983/1993, in terms of the raging upper level NPAC jet during those years. The upper level jet was much more anomalous during those years. However, this is definitely closer to a 1983 or 1993 than a 2014 or 2004, on the large scale. So, setting aside specifics, I can say that the behavior of the tropical convection argues heavily for a cooler than average summer in the western United States this year. Or, at least the first half of it.

[Phil]

The odds favor a warmer/drier summer than 1983. Especially with no super volcanos spouting off.

Do you actually understand the mechanisms through which volcanoes affect the atmosphere during boreal summer?

 

Hint: it's a complicated relationship that hinges directly on the state of ENSO and QBO.

[Front Ranger]

Do you actually understand the mechanisms through which volcanoes affect the atmosphere during boreal summer?

 

Hint: it's a complicated relationship that hinges directly on the state of ENSO and QBO.

Always fair to assume I'm completely clueless about everything and understand nothing.

[WeatherArchive]

I predict a rather cool/wetter summer but a few VERY hot days that will be awful but over with quickly.  It will be the bare minimum of a heatwave (3) days but the temps will have some interesting anomalies. 

[Phil]

From the main thread:

 

June: Cool month overall for PNW. Ridging builds offshore early in the month, setting up downstream trough in western US including PNW. Second half of June is a more classic Niña pattern with ridges in the NPAC and SE US, trough axis centered a bit west of the continental divide.

 

July: Normal to slightly warm month in the PNW with a possible warm stretch early or mid month. Poleward shifted NPAC ridge and a -NAO will drive a more meandering flow over NW North America, could be more of a GOA-centered ridge that licks AK/EPO area and forces a few ULLs offshore for a few bouts of westerly/southwesterly flow. Late month flips +EPO.

 

August: Cool month in coastal PNW, more GOA trough, NPAC ridge shifts westward, ridging develops over intermountain west. Could be a stronger UV200 jet compared to normal. Should be a stronger -NAO, too.

[Front Ranger]

June: Average to a little above average month for PNW. Composite analogs suggest ridging for the month is centered just offshore, meaning generally dry conditions for the PNW and cooler/wetter weather than normal inland in the West. Near normal to slightly warm in the East. Best chance of well above normal weather in the SE.

 

July: Primary ridging remains just offshore but at times right over West Coast. Warmer than normal conditions likely right along the coast, considerably cooler inland West and northern plains. Warmer than normal weather likely along the East Coast.

 

August: Warmer than normal throughout most of the West, much cooler for the eastern half of the nation. Sprawling, but fairly weak ridging over much of the West for the month, with troughing in the NE likely.

 

September: Decent signal for ridging up into NW Canada. Near normal temps for much of the West, with warmer temps in the SE, near normal in NE.

 

A general pattern similar to this expected for the summer.

 

[Phil]

Cool. At least we're both on the record now.

[TT-SEA]

I am cheering for Jared's forecast!  

 

Phil and Jared are not that far apart in the big picture... Jared just shifts the cool anomalies a little eastward.   

 

The end result would be quite different for us though.  

[Phil]

I am cheering for Jared's forecast!

 

Phil and Jared are not that far apart in the big picture... Jared just shifts the cool anomalies a little eastward.

 

The end result would be quite different for us though.

Yeah, though usually in a west-based -ENSO forcing regime the corresponding extratropical circulations are also shifted west.

[Front Ranger]

Phil, if we roll your May analogs forward to the summer, this is what we get. Is this about what you're expecting?

 

[Phil]

Phil, if we roll your May analogs forward to the summer, this is what we get. Is this about what you're expecting?

 

cd67.6.172.175.144.19.0.51.prcp.png

Yeah, essentially a classic Niña look. Exact longitude of the trough axis might verify somewhat farther west/east of the analog mean, but not by enough to change the end result much.

[Guest happ]

NMME July-September calibrated probability temperature forecast [brian Brettschneider] 

 

 

[Jesse]

NMME July-September calibrated probability temperature forecast [brian Brettschneider]

Looks unbiased!

[Phil]

NMME July-September calibrated probability temperature forecast [brian Brettschneider]

That's not gonna happen.

[Front Ranger]

June: Average to a little above average month for PNW. Composite analogs suggest ridging for the month is centered just offshore, meaning generally dry conditions for the PNW and cooler/wetter weather than normal inland in the West. Near normal to slightly warm in the East. Best chance of well above normal weather in the SE.

 

July: Primary ridging remains just offshore but at times right over West Coast. Warmer than normal conditions likely right along the coast, considerably cooler inland West and northern plains. Warmer than normal weather likely along the East Coast.

 

August: Warmer than normal throughout most of the West, much cooler for the eastern half of the nation. Sprawling, but fairly weak ridging over much of the West for the month, with troughing in the NE likely.

 

September: Decent signal for ridging up into NW Canada. Near normal temps for much of the West, with warmer temps in the SE, near normal in NE.

 

A general pattern similar to this expected for the summer.

 

SUMMER.png

 

Given that June has ended up warm in the PNW, and in fact throughout the West, some of my primary analogs have changed. June tends to be a pretty telling month for the rest of the summer.

 

This argues for a continuation of warmth throughout most of the West (including the PNW) in July, with cooler temps in the Plains, and warm temps along the East coast. Similar to my original forecast.

 

The analog composite also support a general forecast similar to my original one for August, though perhaps a bit cooler for the middle of the country and a bit warmer for the East coast.

 

The big change I would now make is for September. I think the likelihood of a warm September in the West (including the PNW) has gone down significantly. Primary analogs now show a clear cool West/warm Midwest East signal for September.

 

Overall, I wouldn't change much about my summer 2017 prediction map, probably just a little warmer for the Mountain West and a littler warmer for the NE.

[Phil]

Given that June has ended up warm in the PNW, and in fact throughout the West, some of my primary analogs have changed. June tends to be a pretty telling month for the rest of the summer.

 

This argues for a continuation of warmth throughout most of the West (including the PNW) in July, with cooler temps in the Plains, and warm temps along the East coast. Very similar to my original forecast.

 

The analog composite also support a general forecast similar to my original one for August, though perhaps a bit cooler for the middle of the country and a bit warmer for the East coast.

 

The big change I would now make is for September. I think the likelihood of a warm September in the West (including the PNW) has gone down significantly. Primary analogs now show a clear cool West/warm Midwest East signal for September.

 

Overall, I wouldn't change much about my summer 2017 prediction map, probably just a little warmer for the Mountain West and a littler warmer for the NE.

What are your ENSO thoughts and analogs for such?

 

If I were you, I'd stick with your original forecast. With the AAM in the tank under a +AO, that screams death ridge over the Plains until the third week of July, assuming the AAM rebounds by then.

[Front Ranger]

What are your ENSO thoughts and analogs for such?

 

If I were you, I'd stick with your original forecast. With the AAM in the tank under a +AO, that screams death ridge over the Plains until the third week of July, assuming the AAM rebounds by then.

I'm basically sticking with my original forecast for the summer as a whole, but cooler West, warmer East for September.

[Front Ranger]

I like 2014/1991/1982 as primary analogs.

 

 

June: Average to a little above average month for PNW. Composite analogs suggest ridging for the month is centered just offshore, meaning generally dry conditions for the PNW and cooler/wetter weather than normal inland in the West. Near normal to slightly warm in the East. Best chance of well above normal weather in the SE.

 

July: Primary ridging remains just offshore but at times right over West Coast. Warmer than normal conditions likely right along the coast, considerably cooler inland West and northern plains. Warmer than normal weather likely along the East Coast.

 

August: Warmer than normal throughout most of the West, much cooler for the eastern half of the nation. Sprawling, but fairly weak ridging over much of the West for the month, with troughing in the NE likely.

 

September: Decent signal for ridging up into NW Canada. Near normal temps for much of the West, with warmer temps in the SE, near normal in NE.

 

A general pattern similar to this expected for the summer.

 

SUMMER.png

 

I later leaned more towards 1986 than 1982, but as you can see I listed both 1991 and 2014 as primary analogs at the beginning of May.

 

And the exact same map I posted in main thread today, Phil.

[TT-SEA]

I later leaned more towards 1986 than 1982, but as you can see I listed both 1991 and 2014 as primary analogs at the beginning of May.

 

And the exact same map I posted in main thread today, Phil.

 

June of 1991 was crazy wet.   

 

1986 was also fairly wet through the first half of July.  

 

And 1982 was cool and wet through much of July.  

 

I would say 2014 is the best match locally from your list... but the first half of this summer has been quite a bit better than all 4 of your analog years.

[Front Ranger]

June of 1991 was crazy wet.

 

1986 was also fairly wet through the first half of July.

 

And 1982 was cool and wet through much of July.

 

I would say 2014 is the best match locally from your list... but the first half of this summer has been quite a bit better than all 4 of your analog years.

As I said in the other thread, my 4 primary ones ended up being 2014, 2004, 1991, and 1986. I don't look at analogs as a step by step tool for forecasting each month. And I added secondary ones to create the map and monthly forecasts I made, and weighted some heavier than others.

 

All this focus on analogs, when I clearly made a prediction for the summer and the general pattern month by month. June was a little warmer and drier in the PNW than I was expecting, but I did expect the first half of summer to be warm.

[TT-SEA]

As I said in the other thread, my 4 primary ones ended up being 2014, 2004, 1991, and 1986. I don't look at analogs as a step by step tool for forecasting each month. And I added secondary ones to create the map and monthly forecasts I made, and weighted some heavier than others.

 

All this focus on analogs, when I clearly made a prediction for the summer and the general pattern month by month. June was a little warmer and drier in the PNW than I was expecting, but I did expect the first half of summer to be warm.

At least locally... 3 of those 4 analogs featured persistently wet weather in June so not sure how you came up with drier than normal for that month. But your summary forecast was basically correct.

[Front Ranger]

At least locally... 3 of those 4 analogs featured persistently wet weather in June so not sure how you came up with drier than normal for that month. But your summary forecast was basically correct.

 

I mainly just look at the composite height anomalies month by month, along with temps. Weighting some analogs more than others.

 

All 4 of my primary analogs were actually drier than normal for SEA, though. Two much drier than normal. And the composite is drier than normal for the western lowlands.

 

[TT-SEA]

I mainly just look at the composite height anomalies month by month, along with temps. Weighting some analogs more than others.

 

All 4 of my primary analogs were actually drier than normal for SEA, though. Two much drier than normal. And the composite is drier than normal for the western lowlands.

 

cd75.166.61.241.199.19.0.48.prcp.png

That makes sense.

 

1982 - decent for part of June but then rained almost every day here in the last week of June and the first week in July.

 

1986 - numerous days with rain in June but mostly light amounts... this year had a few days with rain but one big rain event.

 

1991 - only 5 dry days here in June and only got above 70 on 6 days. A terrible month... very negative TIM index.

 

2014 - rain on 12 days here.

 

This June was superior to all of them here in terms of the number of sunny, dry days.

[Phil]

I later leaned more towards 1986 than 1982, but as you can see I listed both 1991 and 2014 as primary analogs at the beginning of May.

 

And the exact same map I posted in main thread today, Phil.

Ridge just offshore, eh?

 

Reality was exactly the opposite.