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Summer 2017 Predictions

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#1
Scott

Posted 26 April 2017 - 10:31 AM

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Here's mine:

 

998111.jpg

 

I am betting that it will be more accurate than the Farmer's Almanac, Accuweather, and NOAA.


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#2
happ

Posted 26 April 2017 - 10:42 AM

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Here's mine:

 

998111.jpg

 

I am betting that it will be more accurate than the Farmer's Almanac, Accuweather, and NOAA.

 

'Just Shoot Me" :lol:



#3
Jesse

Posted 26 April 2017 - 11:03 AM

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Hot*



*Addition of a second "t" pending.

#4
Phil

Posted 26 April 2017 - 03:35 PM

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You forgot to add North Bend:

E96886E2-83AE-4D27-AEBE-8601363135AB_zps
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#5
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 26 April 2017 - 05:15 PM

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Fairbanks is warmer than San Francisco during July and August.

#6
Scott

Posted 26 April 2017 - 07:11 PM

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Fairbanks is warmer than San Francisco during July and August.

 

True; the triangle with the "Cold" pointed to is meant to be Denali/Mt. McKinley.



#7
wx_statman

Posted 01 May 2017 - 10:30 AM

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I predict a general reduction in sun angle after June 21st, with reasonable certainty. 


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#8
Front Ranger

Posted 01 May 2017 - 06:31 PM

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I like 2014/1991/1982 as primary analogs.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#9
Phil

Posted 02 May 2017 - 11:09 AM

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1943, 1951, 1980, 1983, 1993, 1995, 2012.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#10
TT-SEA

Posted 02 May 2017 - 11:18 AM

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1943, 1951, 1980, 1983, 1993, 1995, 2012.

 

1943, 1951, 1995, and most of 2012 were spectacular summers here.

 

1983 and 1993 were volcanic influenced and were pretty terrible until late.  

 

So it will be either a spectacular summer or a terrible summer.   I already knew that.   Can't be both!  



#11
Front Ranger

Posted 02 May 2017 - 12:06 PM

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1943, 1951, 1980, 1983, 1993, 1995, 2012.

 

Couple of those are recycled from last year's predictions.  ;)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#12
Phil

Posted 02 May 2017 - 12:20 PM

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Couple of those are recycled from last year's predictions. ;)


Correct.

Dateline subsidence, weak IO/EASM under more westerly 50mb QBO and warmer EPAC. This is a nearly unanimous cold signal for the western United States during the early/middl portion of the warm season.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#13
Phil

Posted 02 May 2017 - 12:22 PM

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1943, 1951, 1995, and most of 2012 were spectacular summers here.

1983 and 1993 were volcanic influenced and were pretty terrible until late.

So it will be either a spectacular summer or a terrible summer. I already knew that. Can't be both!


I don't know what "fantastic" means, so I can't comment on that.

It will likely be cooler than average, though.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#14
TT-SEA

Posted 02 May 2017 - 01:17 PM

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I don't know what "fantastic" means, so I can't comment on that.

It will likely be cooler than average, though.

Many of those summers were very sunny and dry. The definition of a fanastic summer here for most people.

1983 and 1993 were unusually rainy and on many days. The opposite of fanastic for most people.

The difference between being remembered as a great summer or a terrible summer. Being slightly cooler or warmer is not that important. A dry, sunny pattern for most of the summer is what I am hoping for this year.

Your analogs are on the complete opposite ends of the spectrum in that regard.

#15
TT-SEA

Posted 02 May 2017 - 01:29 PM

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As a side note... I have long thought that 1951 was one of the best summers in recorded history here and 1983 was one of the worst. And they are both analogs! Rendering this analysis meaningless to me personally.

#16
Front Ranger

Posted 02 May 2017 - 01:34 PM

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As a side note... I have long thought that 1951 was one of the best summers in recorded history here and 1983 was one of the worst. And they are both analogs! Rendering this analysis meaningless to me personally.


The odds favor a warmer/drier summer than 1983. Especially with no super volcanos spouting off.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#17
Phil

Posted 02 May 2017 - 01:37 PM

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Many of those summers were very sunny and dry. The definition of a fanastic summer here for most people.

1983 and 1993 were unusually rainy and on many days. The opposite of fanastic for most people.

The difference between being remembered as a great summer or a terrible summer. Being slightly cooler or warmer is not that important. A dry, sunny pattern for most of the summer is what I am hoping for this year.

Your analogs are on the complete opposite ends of the spectrum in that regard.


Well, minor fluctuations in the jet stream can make huge local differences in precipitation there, it seems. I've structured my analogs to reflect a range of variance that theoretically represents a the spread potential outcomes this summer.

No, this year won't be a "repeat" of 1983/1993, in terms of the raging upper level NPAC jet during those years. The upper level jet was much more anomalous during those years. However, this is definitely closer to a 1983 or 1993 than a 2014 or 2004, on the large scale. So, setting aside specifics, I can say that the behavior of the tropical convection argues heavily for a cooler than average summer in the western United States this year. Or, at least the first half of it.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#18
Phil

Posted 02 May 2017 - 01:41 PM

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The odds favor a warmer/drier summer than 1983. Especially with no super volcanos spouting off.


Do you actually understand the mechanisms through which volcanoes affect the atmosphere during boreal summer? :rolleyes:

Hint: it's a complicated relationship that hinges directly on the state of ENSO and QBO.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#19
Front Ranger

Posted 02 May 2017 - 01:59 PM

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Do you actually understand the mechanisms through which volcanoes affect the atmosphere during boreal summer? :rolleyes:

Hint: it's a complicated relationship that hinges directly on the state of ENSO and QBO.


Always fair to assume I'm completely clueless about everything and understand nothing.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#20
WeatherArchive

Posted 03 May 2017 - 12:05 PM

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I predict a rather cool/wetter summer but a few VERY hot days that will be awful but over with quickly.  It will be the bare minimum of a heatwave (3) days but the temps will have some interesting anomalies. 



#21
Phil

Posted 24 May 2017 - 01:19 PM

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From the main thread:

June: Cool month overall for PNW. Ridging builds offshore early in the month, setting up downstream trough in western US including PNW. Second half of June is a more classic Niña pattern with ridges in the NPAC and SE US, trough axis centered a bit west of the continental divide.

July: Normal to slightly warm month in the PNW with a possible warm stretch early or mid month. Poleward shifted NPAC ridge and a -NAO will drive a more meandering flow over NW North America, could be more of a GOA-centered ridge that licks AK/EPO area and forces a few ULLs offshore for a few bouts of westerly/southwesterly flow. Late month flips +EPO.

August: Cool month in coastal PNW, more GOA trough, NPAC ridge shifts westward, ridging develops over intermountain west. Could be a stronger UV200 jet compared to normal. Should be a stronger -NAO, too.


Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#22
Chris

Posted 24 May 2017 - 01:56 PM

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Let's get real with it. Detailed format.

My thoughts are based on historical progressions of the tropical NPAC thermo-convective gradient under descending QBO easterlies and dominant EHEM/Indo forcing:

June: Cool month overall for PNW. Ridging builds offshore early in the month, setting up downstream trough in western US including PNW. Second half of June is a more classic Niña pattern with ridges in the NPAC and SE US, trough axis centered a bit west of the continental divide.

July: Normal to slightly warm month in the PNW with a possible warm stretch early or mid month. Poleward shifted NPAC ridge and a -NAO will drive a more meandering flow over NW North America, could be more of a GOA-centered ridge that licks AK/EPO area and forces a few ULLs offshore for a few bouts of westerly/southwesterly flow. Late month flips +EPO.

August: Cool month in coastal PNW, more GOA trough, NPAC ridge shifts westward, ridging develops over intermountain west. Could be a stronger UV200 jet compared to normal. Should be a stronger -NAO, too.

So, what are your thoughts? :)

 

You are setting yourself up again.  Stick with the upper atmosphere predictions.  Avoid the 2m predictions (i.e. cool month in coastal PNW) that are microclimate affected.  Otherwise, we'll end up in another "I was right/You were wrong" 50 page sleep-inducing debate.  

 

Maybe this way it will only be 30 pages.



#23
Front Ranger

Posted 24 May 2017 - 06:29 PM

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June: Average to a little above average month for PNW. Composite analogs suggest ridging for the month is centered just offshore, meaning generally dry conditions for the PNW and cooler/wetter weather than normal inland in the West. Near normal to slightly warm in the East. Best chance of well above normal weather in the SE.

 

July: Primary ridging remains just offshore but at times right over West Coast. Warmer than normal conditions likely right along the coast, considerably cooler inland West and northern plains. Warmer than normal weather likely along the East Coast.

 

August: Warmer than normal throughout most of the West, much cooler for the eastern half of the nation. Sprawling, but fairly weak ridging over much of the West for the month, with troughing in the NE likely.

 

September: Decent signal for ridging up into NW Canada. Near normal temps for much of the West, with warmer temps in the SE, near normal in NE.

 

A general pattern similar to this expected for the summer.

 

Attached File  SUMMER.png   176.45KB   0 downloads


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#24
Phil

Posted 24 May 2017 - 08:50 PM

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Cool. At least we're both on the record now.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#25
TT-SEA

Posted 25 May 2017 - 05:09 AM

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I am cheering for Jared's forecast!  

 

Phil and Jared are not that far apart in the big picture... Jared just shifts the cool anomalies a little eastward.   

 

The end result would be quite different for us though.  


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#26
Phil

Posted 25 May 2017 - 07:43 AM

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I am cheering for Jared's forecast!

Phil and Jared are not that far apart in the big picture... Jared just shifts the cool anomalies a little eastward.

The end result would be quite different for us though.


Yeah, though usually in a west-based -ENSO forcing regime the corresponding extratropical circulations are also shifted west.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#27
Front Ranger

Posted 25 May 2017 - 05:03 PM

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Phil, if we roll your May analogs forward to the summer, this is what we get. Is this about what you're expecting?

 

Attached File  cd67.6.172.175.144.19.0.51.prcp.png   420.19KB   1 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#28
Phil

Posted 25 May 2017 - 05:26 PM

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Phil, if we roll your May analogs forward to the summer, this is what we get. Is this about what you're expecting?

cd67.6.172.175.144.19.0.51.prcp.png


Yeah, essentially a classic Niña look. Exact longitude of the trough axis might verify somewhat farther west/east of the analog mean, but not by enough to change the end result much.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#29
happ

Posted 09 June 2017 - 11:03 AM

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NMME July-September calibrated probability temperature forecast [Brian Brettschneider] 

 

 

Attached Files



#30
Jesse

Posted 09 June 2017 - 11:55 AM

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NMME July-September calibrated probability temperature forecast [Brian Brettschneider]


Looks unbiased!

#31
Phil

Posted 09 June 2017 - 12:57 PM

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NMME July-September calibrated probability temperature forecast [Brian Brettschneider]


That's not gonna happen.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#32
Front Ranger

Posted 30 June 2017 - 04:16 PM

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June: Average to a little above average month for PNW. Composite analogs suggest ridging for the month is centered just offshore, meaning generally dry conditions for the PNW and cooler/wetter weather than normal inland in the West. Near normal to slightly warm in the East. Best chance of well above normal weather in the SE.

 

July: Primary ridging remains just offshore but at times right over West Coast. Warmer than normal conditions likely right along the coast, considerably cooler inland West and northern plains. Warmer than normal weather likely along the East Coast.

 

August: Warmer than normal throughout most of the West, much cooler for the eastern half of the nation. Sprawling, but fairly weak ridging over much of the West for the month, with troughing in the NE likely.

 

September: Decent signal for ridging up into NW Canada. Near normal temps for much of the West, with warmer temps in the SE, near normal in NE.

 

A general pattern similar to this expected for the summer.

 

attachicon.gifSUMMER.png

 

Given that June has ended up warm in the PNW, and in fact throughout the West, some of my primary analogs have changed. June tends to be a pretty telling month for the rest of the summer.

 

This argues for a continuation of warmth throughout most of the West (including the PNW) in July, with cooler temps in the Plains, and warm temps along the East coast. Similar to my original forecast.

 

The analog composite also support a general forecast similar to my original one for August, though perhaps a bit cooler for the middle of the country and a bit warmer for the East coast.

 

The big change I would now make is for September. I think the likelihood of a warm September in the West (including the PNW) has gone down significantly. Primary analogs now show a clear cool West/warm Midwest East signal for September.

 

Overall, I wouldn't change much about my summer 2017 prediction map, probably just a little warmer for the Mountain West and a littler warmer for the NE.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#33
Phil

Posted 30 June 2017 - 04:30 PM

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Given that June has ended up warm in the PNW, and in fact throughout the West, some of my primary analogs have changed. June tends to be a pretty telling month for the rest of the summer.

This argues for a continuation of warmth throughout most of the West (including the PNW) in July, with cooler temps in the Plains, and warm temps along the East coast. Very similar to my original forecast.

The analog composite also support a general forecast similar to my original one for August, though perhaps a bit cooler for the middle of the country and a bit warmer for the East coast.

The big change I would now make is for September. I think the likelihood of a warm September in the West (including the PNW) has gone down significantly. Primary analogs now show a clear cool West/warm Midwest East signal for September.

Overall, I wouldn't change much about my summer 2017 prediction map, probably just a little warmer for the Mountain West and a littler warmer for the NE.


What are your ENSO thoughts and analogs for such?

If I were you, I'd stick with your original forecast. With the AAM in the tank under a +AO, that screams death ridge over the Plains until the third week of July, assuming the AAM rebounds by then.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#34
Front Ranger

Posted 30 June 2017 - 04:49 PM

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What are your ENSO thoughts and analogs for such?

If I were you, I'd stick with your original forecast. With the AAM in the tank under a +AO, that screams death ridge over the Plains until the third week of July, assuming the AAM rebounds by then.


I'm basically sticking with my original forecast for the summer as a whole, but cooler West, warmer East for September.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#35
Front Ranger

Posted 19 July 2017 - 01:44 PM

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I like 2014/1991/1982 as primary analogs.

 

 

June: Average to a little above average month for PNW. Composite analogs suggest ridging for the month is centered just offshore, meaning generally dry conditions for the PNW and cooler/wetter weather than normal inland in the West. Near normal to slightly warm in the East. Best chance of well above normal weather in the SE.

 

July: Primary ridging remains just offshore but at times right over West Coast. Warmer than normal conditions likely right along the coast, considerably cooler inland West and northern plains. Warmer than normal weather likely along the East Coast.

 

August: Warmer than normal throughout most of the West, much cooler for the eastern half of the nation. Sprawling, but fairly weak ridging over much of the West for the month, with troughing in the NE likely.

 

September: Decent signal for ridging up into NW Canada. Near normal temps for much of the West, with warmer temps in the SE, near normal in NE.

 

A general pattern similar to this expected for the summer.

 

attachicon.gifSUMMER.png

 

I later leaned more towards 1986 than 1982, but as you can see I listed both 1991 and 2014 as primary analogs at the beginning of May.

 

And the exact same map I posted in main thread today, Phil.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#36
TT-SEA

Posted 19 July 2017 - 02:57 PM

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I later leaned more towards 1986 than 1982, but as you can see I listed both 1991 and 2014 as primary analogs at the beginning of May.

 

And the exact same map I posted in main thread today, Phil.

 

June of 1991 was crazy wet.   

 

1986 was also fairly wet through the first half of July.  

 

And 1982 was cool and wet through much of July.  

 

I would say 2014 is the best match locally from your list... but the first half of this summer has been quite a bit better than all 4 of your analog years.



#37
Front Ranger

Posted 19 July 2017 - 03:38 PM

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June of 1991 was crazy wet.

1986 was also fairly wet through the first half of July.

And 1982 was cool and wet through much of July.

I would say 2014 is the best match locally from your list... but the first half of this summer has been quite a bit better than all 4 of your analog years.


As I said in the other thread, my 4 primary ones ended up being 2014, 2004, 1991, and 1986. I don't look at analogs as a step by step tool for forecasting each month. And I added secondary ones to create the map and monthly forecasts I made, and weighted some heavier than others.

All this focus on analogs, when I clearly made a prediction for the summer and the general pattern month by month. :) June was a little warmer and drier in the PNW than I was expecting, but I did expect the first half of summer to be warm.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#38
TT-SEA

Posted 19 July 2017 - 04:01 PM

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As I said in the other thread, my 4 primary ones ended up being 2014, 2004, 1991, and 1986. I don't look at analogs as a step by step tool for forecasting each month. And I added secondary ones to create the map and monthly forecasts I made, and weighted some heavier than others.

All this focus on analogs, when I clearly made a prediction for the summer and the general pattern month by month. :) June was a little warmer and drier in the PNW than I was expecting, but I did expect the first half of summer to be warm.


At least locally... 3 of those 4 analogs featured persistently wet weather in June so not sure how you came up with drier than normal for that month. But your summary forecast was basically correct.

#39
Front Ranger

Posted 19 July 2017 - 05:02 PM

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At least locally... 3 of those 4 analogs featured persistently wet weather in June so not sure how you came up with drier than normal for that month. But your summary forecast was basically correct.

 

I mainly just look at the composite height anomalies month by month, along with temps. Weighting some analogs more than others.

 

All 4 of my primary analogs were actually drier than normal for SEA, though. Two much drier than normal. And the composite is drier than normal for the western lowlands.

 

Attached File  cd75.166.61.241.199.19.0.48.prcp.png   425.11KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#40
TT-SEA

Posted 19 July 2017 - 05:36 PM

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I mainly just look at the composite height anomalies month by month, along with temps. Weighting some analogs more than others.

All 4 of my primary analogs were actually drier than normal for SEA, though. Two much drier than normal. And the composite is drier than normal for the western lowlands.

attachicon.gifcd75.166.61.241.199.19.0.48.prcp.png


That makes sense.

1982 - decent for part of June but then rained almost every day here in the last week of June and the first week in July.

1986 - numerous days with rain in June but mostly light amounts... this year had a few days with rain but one big rain event.

1991 - only 5 dry days here in June and only got above 70 on 6 days. A terrible month... very negative TIM index. :)

2014 - rain on 12 days here.

This June was superior to all of them here in terms of the number of sunny, dry days.



#41
Phil

Posted 19 July 2017 - 10:08 PM

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I later leaned more towards 1986 than 1982, but as you can see I listed both 1991 and 2014 as primary analogs at the beginning of May.

And the exact same map I posted in main thread today, Phil.


Ridge just offshore, eh?

Reality was exactly the opposite.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#42
Phil

Posted 19 July 2017 - 10:19 PM

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I later leaned more towards 1986 than 1982, but as you can see I listed both 1991 and 2014 as primary analogs at the beginning of May.

And the exact same map I posted in main thread today, Phil.


Dude, 2014 is the worst analog possible. Do you have any idea what you're doing here?

Opposite wavetrain(s) across the NPAC and NAO domains:

0AD75EDD-2DA7-4ECE-9CED-71963521ED06_zps

20C9232E-F591-4463-AD9D-28E6A3C699E6_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#43
Phil

Posted 19 July 2017 - 10:28 PM

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First half of summer in 2014 vs 2017. Opposite circulation just about everywhere. The similarities over the western US are just a fluke.

This is an anti-log. :lol:

5E91B088-5FFC-4A34-AEE2-8606F4E4E357_zps

6068EF53-8BD8-4D41-95E7-89F8633110BA_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#44
Jesse

Posted 19 July 2017 - 10:48 PM

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To be fair, Phil, weren't you just saying a few weeks ago that we switch to a 2014-like pattern in August or September?

#45
Phil

Posted 19 July 2017 - 11:04 PM

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To be fair, Phil, weren't you just saying a few weeks ago that we switch to a 2014-like pattern in August or September?


Yes, but recall the pattern evolution of July/August 2014. I don't think we'll match this verbatim, but it's a better match than the first half of summer 2014 (which was almost 100% opposite relative to 2017):

16D8AF32-6422-4177-BE7C-411D59EEA436_zps

That's a very different look compared to the first half of summer 2014.

I'll concede Jared's analogs have matched better than mine over the PNW/SW Canada, but that was just dumb luck because he got the pattern entirely wrong.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#46
Phil

Posted 19 July 2017 - 11:17 PM

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The 1980s analogs captured the +NAM, while the 1990s analogs failed to do so.

62CB1BB3-F660-460C-86C2-D5B04866B4A0_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#47
Front Ranger

Posted 20 July 2017 - 07:35 AM

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Dude, 2014 is the worst analog possible. Do you have any idea what you're doing here?

 

Again...

 

As I said in the other thread, my 4 primary ones ended up being 2014, 2004, 1991, and 1986. I don't look at analogs as a step by step tool for forecasting each month. And I added secondary ones to create the map and monthly forecasts I made, and weighted some heavier than others.

All this focus on analogs, when I clearly made a prediction for the summer and the general pattern month by month. :) June was a little warmer and drier in the PNW than I was expecting, but I did expect the first half of summer to be warm.

 

Also, you tend to have a more global focus when it comes to analogs. I look for what I can apply more locally.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#48
Front Ranger

Posted 20 July 2017 - 07:51 AM

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Ridge just offshore, eh?

Reality was exactly the opposite.

 

Exactly the opposite? The ridge ended up being centered over the West Coast. Everything was a little further east than my forecast, but I wasn't completely off. Certainly better than if I'd forecasted a troughy/cool June for the West. And it fit with my overall summer forecast, which was warmer than normal west of the Rockies.

 

Attached File  compday.uheDTvmmMW.gif   23.25KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#49
Front Ranger

Posted 20 July 2017 - 07:54 AM

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That makes sense.

1982 - decent for part of June but then rained almost every day here in the last week of June and the first week in July.

1986 - numerous days with rain in June but mostly light amounts... this year had a few days with rain but one big rain event.

1991 - only 5 dry days here in June and only got above 70 on 6 days. A terrible month... very negative TIM index. :)

2014 - rain on 12 days here.

This June was superior to all of them here in terms of the number of sunny, dry days.

 

You keep bringing up 1982 instead of 2004. 2004 was in my final four primary analogs when I made the summer outlook, 1982 was not.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#50
Phil

Posted 20 July 2017 - 07:59 AM

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Again...


Also, you tend to have a more global focus when it comes to analogs. I look for what I can apply more locally.


How can you possibly separate the hemispheric-scale wave train from regional climate? They're inherently linked.

In the long run, successfully forecasting North American climate requires successful forecasting of the global circulation.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph