Summer 2017 Predictions

[Phil]

I later leaned more towards 1986 than 1982, but as you can see I listed both 1991 and 2014 as primary analogs at the beginning of May.

 

And the exact same map I posted in main thread today, Phil.

Dude, 2014 is the worst analog possible. Do you have any idea what you're doing here?

 

Opposite wavetrain(s) across the NPAC and NAO domains:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/0AD75EDD-2DA7-4ECE-9CED-71963521ED06_zpsgq7tkgwu.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/20C9232E-F591-4463-AD9D-28E6A3C699E6_zpsqtzy2fqa.png

[Phil]

First half of summer in 2014 vs 2017. Opposite circulation just about everywhere. The similarities over the western US are just a fluke.

 

This is an anti-log.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5E91B088-5FFC-4A34-AEE2-8606F4E4E357_zpsvov3hmms.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6068EF53-8BD8-4D41-95E7-89F8633110BA_zpspd0y46xn.gif

[Jesse]

To be fair, Phil, weren't you just saying a few weeks ago that we switch to a 2014-like pattern in August or September?

[Phil]

To be fair, Phil, weren't you just saying a few weeks ago that we switch to a 2014-like pattern in August or September?

Yes, but recall the pattern evolution of July/August 2014. I don't think we'll match this verbatim, but it's a better match than the first half of summer 2014 (which was almost 100% opposite relative to 2017):

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/16D8AF32-6422-4177-BE7C-411D59EEA436_zpsabsiu8z2.png

 

That's a very different look compared to the first half of summer 2014.

 

I'll concede Jared's analogs have matched better than mine over the PNW/SW Canada, but that was just dumb luck because he got the pattern entirely wrong.

[Phil]

The 1980s analogs captured the +NAM, while the 1990s analogs failed to do so.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/62CB1BB3-F660-460C-86C2-D5B04866B4A0_zpsiyoe0i2y.png

[Front Ranger]

Dude, 2014 is the worst analog possible. Do you have any idea what you're doing here?

 

Again...

 

As I said in the other thread, my 4 primary ones ended up being 2014, 2004, 1991, and 1986. I don't look at analogs as a step by step tool for forecasting each month. And I added secondary ones to create the map and monthly forecasts I made, and weighted some heavier than others.

 

All this focus on analogs, when I clearly made a prediction for the summer and the general pattern month by month. June was a little warmer and drier in the PNW than I was expecting, but I did expect the first half of summer to be warm.

 

Also, you tend to have a more global focus when it comes to analogs. I look for what I can apply more locally.

[Front Ranger]

Ridge just offshore, eh?

 

Reality was exactly the opposite.

 

Exactly the opposite? The ridge ended up being centered over the West Coast. Everything was a little further east than my forecast, but I wasn't completely off. Certainly better than if I'd forecasted a troughy/cool June for the West. And it fit with my overall summer forecast, which was warmer than normal west of the Rockies.

 

[Front Ranger]

That makes sense.

 

1982 - decent for part of June but then rained almost every day here in the last week of June and the first week in July.

 

1986 - numerous days with rain in June but mostly light amounts... this year had a few days with rain but one big rain event.

 

1991 - only 5 dry days here in June and only got above 70 on 6 days. A terrible month... very negative TIM index.

 

2014 - rain on 12 days here.

 

This June was superior to all of them here in terms of the number of sunny, dry days.

 

You keep bringing up 1982 instead of 2004. 2004 was in my final four primary analogs when I made the summer outlook, 1982 was not.

[Phil]

Again...

 

 

Also, you tend to have a more global focus when it comes to analogs. I look for what I can apply more locally.

How can you possibly separate the hemispheric-scale wave train from regional climate? They're inherently linked.

 

In the long run, successfully forecasting North American climate requires successful forecasting of the global circulation.

[Phil]

It's one thing to be somewhat off with orientation of the circulations (happens to me frequently). It's another thing to get the NH pattern completely backwards and then try to claim success. That's what's bothering me, dude. It's dishonest.

[Front Ranger]

How can you possibly separate the hemispheric-scale wave train from regional climate? They're inherently linked.

 

In the long run, successfully forecasting North American climate requires successful forecasting of the global circulation.

 

I didn't say I ignore the global circulation. But I think I look at some regional factors more than you, while you look at some aspects globally that I'm sure I don't.

[Front Ranger]

It's one thing to be somewhat off with orientation of the circulations (happens to me frequently). It's another thing to get the NH pattern completely backwards and then try to claim success. That's what's bothering me, dude. It's dishonest.

 

All I've been doing is defending myself from your claims. Look at yesterday...you went on the attack, claiming my outlook for a warm July wasn't looking good. And then proceeded from there.

 

I think you've proven pretty clearly why I don't like to share my analogs with you.

[Phil]

I didn't say I ignore the global circulation. But I think I look at some regional factors more than you, while you look at some aspects globally that I'm sure I don't.

I'm just saying, June/July 2014 were both -NAO/-PNA months with active EHEM monsoons and a very warm NH/Arctic.

 

Meanwhile, June/July 2017 have been mostly +NAO/+PNA with weak EHEM monsoons and a cooling NH/Arctic.

 

So yeah, I don't think 2014 is a good early-summer analog.

[Phil]

All I've been doing is defending myself from your claims. Look at yesterday...you went on the attack, claiming my outlook for a warm July wasn't looking good. And then proceeded from there.

 

I think you've proven pretty clearly why I don't like to share my analogs with you.

I made a joke about your July call, thinking you were ready to move past this. I guess not. Whatever, man.

[Front Ranger]

I'm just saying, June/July 2014 were both -NAO/-PNA months with active EHEM monsoons and a very warm NH/Arctic.

 

Meanwhile, June/July 2017 have been mostly +NAO/+PNA with weak EHEM monsoons and a cooling NH/Arctic.

 

So yeah, I don't think 2014 is a good early-summer analog.

 

Well, it was one analog used, not the only one. And for North America, it definitely worked out better than analogs indicating western troughing/eastern ridging.

[Front Ranger]

I made a joke about your July call, thinking you were ready to move past this. I guess not. Whatever, man.

 

How is "looks like your warm July call isn't looking so hot" a joke? Your follow up to it didn't make it sound like you were joking at all, as you explained that modeling indicated the western lowlands would end up cooler than normal.

[Phil]

Well, it was one analog used, not the only one. And for North America, it definitely worked out better than analogs indicating western troughing/eastern ridging.

I'll concede to you on North America (so far). However, across the NH as a whole, I think it's clear my analogs have matched reality more closely (again, so far).

[Front Ranger]

I'll concede to you on North America (so far). However, across the NH as a whole, I think it's clear my analogs have matched reality more closely (again, so far).

 

If you say so. We weren't forecasting for the NH, or at least I wasn't. 

[Phil]

How is "looks like your warm July call isn't looking so hot" a joke? Your follow up to it didn't make it sound like you were joking at all, as you explained that modeling indicated the western lowlands would end up cooler than normal.

"Ain't looking too hot" was supposed to be the punchline, dude.

 

I thought you'd pick up on that.

[ShawniganLake]

This is feeling like last summer, except the Flat Ranger has taken Tims place.

[Front Ranger]

This is feeling like last summer, except the Flat Ranger has taken Tims place.

 

 

Not even in the same ballpark.

 

(Phil is busting much bigger this summer).

[Phil]

This is feeling like last summer, except the Flat Ranger has taken Tims place.

More like I've taken Tim's place.

 

I actually wasn't the instigator last summer.

[Phil]

[Front Ranger]

Hey, I nailed last summer for the most part.

 

I might still end up doing better than you this year, too.

 

You had the big picture mostly right, just got too specific. And August didn't do you any favors.

[Phil]

You had the big picture mostly right, just got too specific. And August didn't do you any favors.

Those three weeks in August did make a difference in the Puget Sound heat bubble.

[Front Ranger]

Those three weeks in August did make a difference in the Puget Sound heat bubble.

 

Heh, no bubble. It was a warm month for all of the lowlands and most the PNW.

 

[Phil]

Heh, no bubble. It was a warm month for all of the lowlands and most the PNW.

 

Aug16TDeptWRCC-NW.png

No, I meant for J/A/S overall. It was a warm bubble when looking at that period as a whole, along with that infamous Astoria bubble (which looks to have popped since they swapped out the sensor).

[Front Ranger]

Given that June has ended up warm in the PNW, and in fact throughout the West, some of my primary analogs have changed. June tends to be a pretty telling month for the rest of the summer.

 

This argues for a continuation of warmth throughout most of the West (including the PNW) in July, with cooler temps in the Plains, and warm temps along the East coast. Similar to my original forecast.

 

The analog composite also support a general forecast similar to my original one for August, though perhaps a bit cooler for the middle of the country and a bit warmer for the East coast.

 

The big change I would now make is for September. I think the likelihood of a warm September in the West (including the PNW) has gone down significantly. Primary analogs now show a clear cool West/warm Midwest East signal for September.

 

Overall, I wouldn't change much about my summer 2017 prediction map, probably just a little warmer for the Mountain West and a littler warmer for the NE.

 

The warmth did continue throughout most of the West in July, but the cooler temps ended up more in the Midwest than the Plains, with warmth in the Mid Atlantic. The general idea of warm anomalies being centered in the West was correct, though everything was a bit further east overall.

 

Given that outcome, I see no reason to change anything in the forecast for August or September. The western warmth, especially in the PNW, is obviously continuing into August, and the eastern half of the nation is seeing much cooler weather as expected.

 

Going forward, the most likely pattern progression will probably be general western ridging continuing through the first half of August, with a retrogression and turn towards cooler weather likely the second half of the month. I would expect troughing to be centered mainly over the northern Rockies then, but also extend into the PNW at times. The middle of the country should remain fairly cool through much of the month, with warmer temps making a recovery along the East coast the second half of the month.

[TT-SEA]

The warmth did continue throughout most of the West in July, but the cooler temps ended up more in the Midwest than the Plains, with warmth in the Mid Atlantic. The general idea of warm anomalies being centered in the West was correct, though everything was a bit further east overall.

 

Given that outcome, I see no reason to change anything in the forecast for August or September. The western warmth, especially in the PNW, is obviously continuing into August, and the eastern half of the nation is seeing much cooler weather as expected.

 

Going forward, the most likely pattern progression will probably be general western ridging continuing through the first half of August, with a retrogression and turn towards cooler weather likely the second half of the month. I would expect troughing to be centered mainly over the northern Rockies then, but also extend into the PNW at times. The middle of the country should remain fairly cool through much of the month, with warmer temps making a recovery along the East coast the second half of the month.

 

I will be shocked if September is warm and dry now.

[Jesse]

I will be shocked if September is warm and dry now.

It will be.

[Front Ranger]

I will be shocked if September is warm and dry now.

 

The leading analogs I have going forward are: 2014, 2004, 1991, 1986, 1981, and 1961. 2014 is the only year that ended up truly warm in September, and 2004, 1986, and 1961 were quite cool in most areas.

 

Precipitation was kind of all over the place with those analogs, but I would agree there's a higher than normal chance of a wet September.

[Deweydog]

The leading analogs I have going forward are: 2014, 2004, 1991, 1986, 1981, and 1961. 2014 is the only year that ended up truly warm in September, and 2004, 1986, and 1961 were quite cool in most areas.

 

Precipitation was kind of all over the place with those analogs, but I would agree there's a higher than normal chance of a wet September.

September 1991 was freakishly cold.

 

If hashtags were a thing back then it most definitely would have warranted a #septembericebox.

[Front Ranger]

September 1991 was freakishly cold.

 

If hashtags were a thing back then it most definitely would have warranted a #septembericebox.

 

Whoops, missed that one. Still the overall composite for those years shows a clear cool West (including PNW) and warm east pattern, which is what I'd lean towards.

 

[Phil]

Whoops, missed that one. Still the overall composite for those years shows a clear cool West (including PNW) and warm east pattern, which is what I'd lean towards.

 

cd75.166.62.76.213.18.6.25.prcp.png

That's still warm over Puget Sound, though. Even with the freakishly cold 1991.

[Front Ranger]

That's still warm over Puget Sound, though. Even with the freakishly cold 1991.

 

Barely, but cool overall for the PNW. The main signal is pretty clear.

[Front Ranger]

[Phil]

It will be.

Good call. The MJO will be back over the Pacific during the first week of September, and will stay there through at least the first two weeks of the month. Should be a warm/dry month.

[DareDuck]

Good call. The MJO will be back over the Pacific during the first week of September, and will stay there through at least the first two weeks of the month. Should be a warm/dry month.

Sounds good for my wedding on the 9th. Hope it stays that.

[Front Ranger]

Good call. The MJO will be back over the Pacific during the first week of September, and will stay there through at least the first two weeks of the month. Should be a warm/dry month.

 

Considering it's 8/17, we probably still have to wait a bit to find out. 

[Phil]

Considering it's 8/17, we probably still have to wait a bit to find out.

I don't think we have to worry about the MJO/intreaseasonal forcing dying with the equinox approaching in a -QBO regime, let alone in a solar minimum year featuring a Pacific and IO/IOD in near perfect opposition.

 

I think a transition into western ridging should occur during the first week of September (or very late August), and probably continue through the first three weeks of September, before forcing leaves the EPAC/WHEM during the last week of the month.