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Summer 2017 Predictions

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#51
Phil

Posted 20 July 2017 - 08:01 AM

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It's one thing to be somewhat off with orientation of the circulations (happens to me frequently). It's another thing to get the NH pattern completely backwards and then try to claim success. That's what's bothering me, dude. It's dishonest.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#52
Front Ranger

Posted 20 July 2017 - 08:01 AM

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How can you possibly separate the hemispheric-scale wave train from regional climate? They're inherently linked.

In the long run, successfully forecasting North American climate requires successful forecasting of the global circulation.

 

I didn't say I ignore the global circulation. But I think I look at some regional factors more than you, while you look at some aspects globally that I'm sure I don't.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#53
Front Ranger

Posted 20 July 2017 - 08:03 AM

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It's one thing to be somewhat off with orientation of the circulations (happens to me frequently). It's another thing to get the NH pattern completely backwards and then try to claim success. That's what's bothering me, dude. It's dishonest.

 

All I've been doing is defending myself from your claims. Look at yesterday...you went on the attack, claiming my outlook for a warm July wasn't looking good. And then proceeded from there.

 

I think you've proven pretty clearly why I don't like to share my analogs with you.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#54
Phil

Posted 20 July 2017 - 08:04 AM

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I didn't say I ignore the global circulation. But I think I look at some regional factors more than you, while you look at some aspects globally that I'm sure I don't.


I'm just saying, June/July 2014 were both -NAO/-PNA months with active EHEM monsoons and a very warm NH/Arctic.

Meanwhile, June/July 2017 have been mostly +NAO/+PNA with weak EHEM monsoons and a cooling NH/Arctic.

So yeah, I don't think 2014 is a good early-summer analog.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#55
Phil

Posted 20 July 2017 - 08:07 AM

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All I've been doing is defending myself from your claims. Look at yesterday...you went on the attack, claiming my outlook for a warm July wasn't looking good. And then proceeded from there.

I think you've proven pretty clearly why I don't like to share my analogs with you.


I made a joke about your July call, thinking you were ready to move past this. I guess not. Whatever, man.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#56
Front Ranger

Posted 20 July 2017 - 08:08 AM

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I'm just saying, June/July 2014 were both -NAO/-PNA months with active EHEM monsoons and a very warm NH/Arctic.

Meanwhile, June/July 2017 have been mostly +NAO/+PNA with weak EHEM monsoons and a cooling NH/Arctic.

So yeah, I don't think 2014 is a good early-summer analog.

 

Well, it was one analog used, not the only one. And for North America, it definitely worked out better than analogs indicating western troughing/eastern ridging.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#57
Front Ranger

Posted 20 July 2017 - 08:11 AM

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I made a joke about your July call, thinking you were ready to move past this. I guess not. Whatever, man.

 

How is "looks like your warm July call isn't looking so hot" a joke? Your follow up to it didn't make it sound like you were joking at all, as you explained that modeling indicated the western lowlands would end up cooler than normal.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#58
Phil

Posted 20 July 2017 - 08:11 AM

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Well, it was one analog used, not the only one. And for North America, it definitely worked out better than analogs indicating western troughing/eastern ridging.


I'll concede to you on North America (so far). However, across the NH as a whole, I think it's clear my analogs have matched reality more closely (again, so far).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#59
Front Ranger

Posted 20 July 2017 - 08:12 AM

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I'll concede to you on North America (so far). However, across the NH as a whole, I think it's clear my analogs have matched reality more closely (again, so far).

 

If you say so. We weren't forecasting for the NH, or at least I wasn't.  :P


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#60
Phil

Posted 20 July 2017 - 08:13 AM

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How is "looks like your warm July call isn't looking so hot" a joke? Your follow up to it didn't make it sound like you were joking at all, as you explained that modeling indicated the western lowlands would end up cooler than normal.


"Ain't looking too hot" was supposed to be the punchline, dude.

I thought you'd pick up on that.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#61
ShawniganLake

Posted 20 July 2017 - 08:33 AM

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This is feeling like last summer, except the Flat Ranger has taken Tims place.

#62
Front Ranger

Posted 20 July 2017 - 08:47 AM

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This is feeling like last summer, except the Flat Ranger has taken Tims place.

 

B)

 

Not even in the same ballpark.

 

(Phil is busting much bigger this summer).


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#63
Phil

Posted 20 July 2017 - 08:50 AM

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This is feeling like last summer, except the Flat Ranger has taken Tims place.


More like I've taken Tim's place.

I actually wasn't the instigator last summer.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#64
Phil

Posted 20 July 2017 - 08:52 AM

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B)

Not even in the same ballpark.

(Phil is busting much bigger this summer).


Hey, I nailed last summer for the most part.

I might still end up doing better than you this year, too. 😘
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#65
Front Ranger

Posted 20 July 2017 - 09:26 AM

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Hey, I nailed last summer for the most part.

I might still end up doing better than you this year, too.

 

You had the big picture mostly right, just got too specific. And August didn't do you any favors.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#66
Phil

Posted 20 July 2017 - 11:58 AM

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You had the big picture mostly right, just got too specific. And August didn't do you any favors.


Those three weeks in August did make a difference in the Puget Sound heat bubble.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#67
Front Ranger

Posted 20 July 2017 - 01:49 PM

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Those three weeks in August did make a difference in the Puget Sound heat bubble.

 

Heh, no bubble. It was a warm month for all of the lowlands and most the PNW.

 

Attached File  Aug16TDeptWRCC-NW.png   18.13KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#68
Phil

Posted 20 July 2017 - 01:52 PM

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Heh, no bubble. It was a warm month for all of the lowlands and most the PNW.

Aug16TDeptWRCC-NW.png


No, I meant for J/A/S overall. It was a warm bubble when looking at that period as a whole, along with that infamous Astoria bubble (which looks to have popped since they swapped out the sensor).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#69
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:04 PM

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Given that June has ended up warm in the PNW, and in fact throughout the West, some of my primary analogs have changed. June tends to be a pretty telling month for the rest of the summer.

 

This argues for a continuation of warmth throughout most of the West (including the PNW) in July, with cooler temps in the Plains, and warm temps along the East coast. Similar to my original forecast.

 

The analog composite also support a general forecast similar to my original one for August, though perhaps a bit cooler for the middle of the country and a bit warmer for the East coast.

 

The big change I would now make is for September. I think the likelihood of a warm September in the West (including the PNW) has gone down significantly. Primary analogs now show a clear cool West/warm Midwest East signal for September.

 

Overall, I wouldn't change much about my summer 2017 prediction map, probably just a little warmer for the Mountain West and a littler warmer for the NE.

 

The warmth did continue throughout most of the West in July, but the cooler temps ended up more in the Midwest than the Plains, with warmth in the Mid Atlantic. The general idea of warm anomalies being centered in the West was correct, though everything was a bit further east overall.

 

Given that outcome, I see no reason to change anything in the forecast for August or September. The western warmth, especially in the PNW, is obviously continuing into August, and the eastern half of the nation is seeing much cooler weather as expected.

 

Going forward, the most likely pattern progression will probably be general western ridging continuing through the first half of August, with a retrogression and turn towards cooler weather likely the second half of the month. I would expect troughing to be centered mainly over the northern Rockies then, but also extend into the PNW at times. The middle of the country should remain fairly cool through much of the month, with warmer temps making a recovery along the East coast the second half of the month.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#70
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:08 PM

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The warmth did continue throughout most of the West in July, but the cooler temps ended up more in the Midwest than the Plains, with warmth in the Mid Atlantic. The general idea of warm anomalies being centered in the West was correct, though everything was a bit further east overall.

 

Given that outcome, I see no reason to change anything in the forecast for August or September. The western warmth, especially in the PNW, is obviously continuing into August, and the eastern half of the nation is seeing much cooler weather as expected.

 

Going forward, the most likely pattern progression will probably be general western ridging continuing through the first half of August, with a retrogression and turn towards cooler weather likely the second half of the month. I would expect troughing to be centered mainly over the northern Rockies then, but also extend into the PNW at times. The middle of the country should remain fairly cool through much of the month, with warmer temps making a recovery along the East coast the second half of the month.

 

I will be shocked if September is warm and dry now.



#71
Jesse

Posted 02 August 2017 - 06:20 AM

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I will be shocked if September is warm and dry now.


It will be.

#72
Front Ranger

Posted 02 August 2017 - 08:13 AM

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I will be shocked if September is warm and dry now.

 

The leading analogs I have going forward are: 2014, 2004, 1991, 1986, 1981, and 1961. 2014 is the only year that ended up truly warm in September, and 2004, 1986, and 1961 were quite cool in most areas.

 

Precipitation was kind of all over the place with those analogs, but I would agree there's a higher than normal chance of a wet September.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#73
Deweydog

Posted 02 August 2017 - 12:44 PM

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The leading analogs I have going forward are: 2014, 2004, 1991, 1986, 1981, and 1961. 2014 is the only year that ended up truly warm in September, and 2004, 1986, and 1961 were quite cool in most areas.

Precipitation was kind of all over the place with those analogs, but I would agree there's a higher than normal chance of a wet September.


September 1991 was freakishly cold.

If hashtags were a thing back then it most definitely would have warranted a #septembericebox.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#74
Front Ranger

Posted 02 August 2017 - 04:07 PM

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September 1991 was freakishly cold.

If hashtags were a thing back then it most definitely would have warranted a #septembericebox.

 

Whoops, missed that one. Still the overall composite for those years shows a clear cool West (including PNW) and warm east pattern, which is what I'd lean towards.

 

Attached File  cd75.166.62.76.213.18.6.25.prcp.png   406.76KB   2 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#75
Phil

Posted 02 August 2017 - 04:26 PM

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Whoops, missed that one. Still the overall composite for those years shows a clear cool West (including PNW) and warm east pattern, which is what I'd lean towards.

cd75.166.62.76.213.18.6.25.prcp.png


That's still warm over Puget Sound, though. Even with the freakishly cold 1991.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#76
Front Ranger

Posted 02 August 2017 - 10:50 PM

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That's still warm over Puget Sound, though. Even with the freakishly cold 1991.

 

Barely, but cool overall for the PNW. The main signal is pretty clear.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#77
Front Ranger

Posted 16 August 2017 - 03:42 PM

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Attached File  60dTDeptUS.png   106.46KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#78
Phil

Posted 16 August 2017 - 06:08 PM

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It will be.


Good call. The MJO will be back over the Pacific during the first week of September, and will stay there through at least the first two weeks of the month. Should be a warm/dry month.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#79
DareDuck

Posted 16 August 2017 - 07:57 PM

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Good call. The MJO will be back over the Pacific during the first week of September, and will stay there through at least the first two weeks of the month. Should be a warm/dry month.


Sounds good for my wedding on the 9th. Hope it stays that.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#80
Front Ranger

Posted 17 August 2017 - 08:52 AM

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Good call. The MJO will be back over the Pacific during the first week of September, and will stay there through at least the first two weeks of the month. Should be a warm/dry month.

 

Considering it's 8/17, we probably still have to wait a bit to find out.  ;)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#81
Phil

Posted 17 August 2017 - 09:04 AM

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Considering it's 8/17, we probably still have to wait a bit to find out. ;)


I don't think we have to worry about the MJO/intreaseasonal forcing dying with the equinox approaching in a -QBO regime, let alone in a solar minimum year featuring a Pacific and IO/IOD in near perfect opposition.

I think a transition into western ridging should occur during the first week of September (or very late August), and probably continue through the first three weeks of September, before forcing leaves the EPAC/WHEM during the last week of the month.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#82
Jesse

Posted 17 August 2017 - 09:08 AM

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Good call. The MJO will be back over the Pacific during the first week of September, and will stay there through at least the first two weeks of the month. Should be a warm/dry month.


Hopefully this warm/dry months ends up like your cool/wet July.

#83
Phil

Posted 17 August 2017 - 09:16 AM

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Hopefully this warm/dry months ends up like your cool/wet July.


Well, I didn't forecast a wet July, but I did forecast a torchy August. ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#84
Front Ranger

Posted 17 August 2017 - 09:21 AM

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Well, I didn't forecast a wet July, but I did forecast a torchy August. ;)

 

:huh:

 

From first page of this thread.

 

Phil, on 24 May 2017 - 2:49 PM, said:snapback.png

June: Cool month overall for PNW. Ridging builds offshore early in the month, setting up downstream trough in western US including PNW. Second half of June is a more classic Niña pattern with ridges in the NPAC and SE US, trough axis centered a bit west of the continental divide.

July: Normal to slightly warm month in the PNW with a possible warm stretch early or mid month. Poleward shifted NPAC ridge and a -NAO will drive a more meandering flow over NW North America, could be more of a GOA-centered ridge that licks AK/EPO area and forces a few ULLs offshore for a few bouts of westerly/southwesterly flow. Late month flips +EPO.

August: Cool month in coastal PNW, more GOA trough, NPAC ridge shifts westward, ridging develops over intermountain west. Could be a stronger UV200 jet compared to normal. Should be a stronger -NAO, too.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#85
Phil

Posted 17 August 2017 - 09:42 AM

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:huh:

From first page of this thread.

Phil, on 24 May 2017 - 2:49 PM, said:snapback.png


Lmao. Dude, I was trolling you with that post. Warm July, cool August, and GOA ridge was in obvious contradiction to everything I've said this summer. :lol:

I wanted to see if you'd copy my pattern ideas and put your own spin on them, like you usually do. It worked, because you tossed in "offshore ridge" and "August NPAC trough" last minute and busted as a result. Lol.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#86
Jesse

Posted 17 August 2017 - 09:59 AM

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Lmao. Dude, I was trolling you with that post. Warm July, cool August, and GOA ridge was in obvious contradiction to everything I've said this summer. :lol:

I wanted to see if you'd copy my pattern ideas and put your own spin on them, like you usually do. It worked, because you tossed in "offshore ridge" and "August NPAC trough" last minute and busted as a result. Lol.


Nah, I think you were just wrong. Own up to it. People would respect you more.
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#87
Phil

Posted 17 August 2017 - 10:05 AM

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After months of claiming I forecasted a repeat of 1993's NPAC jet from planet Hoth, how can you take an obvious troll post out of context, and claim the exact opposite? :lol:

I guarantee you won't find any other hot July/cool August posts from me this year.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#88
Jesse

Posted 17 August 2017 - 10:08 AM

Jesse

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After months of claiming I forecasted a repeat of 1993's NPAC jet from planet Hoth (which I didn't), how could anyone take an obvious troll post out of context, and claim the exact opposite? :lol:

I guarantee you won't find any other hot July/cool August posts from me this year.


That wasn't a troll post. I remember when you made it and at the time it was presented as a real forecast. You are just backed into a corner right now and acting really weird about it, like usual. Man up.
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#89
Phil

Posted 17 August 2017 - 10:21 AM

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That wasn't a troll post. I remember when you made it and at the time it was presented as a real forecast. You are just backed into a corner right now and acting really weird about it, like usual. Man up.


Jesse, it was honestly a troll post. Please look at my posts in the March/April/May PNW threads if you don't believe me.

I'm done debating over it, though. I've said repeatedly that I'm committed to remaining honest and transparent here, so as long as I'm living up to that, I don't care if you decide to have a field day with my posts, whether warranted or not.

Have a good day, my friend.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#90
Jesse

Posted 17 August 2017 - 10:27 AM

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Jesse, it was honestly a troll post. Please look at my posts in the March/April/May PNW threads if you don't believe me.

I'm done debating over it, though. I've said repeatedly that I'm committed to remaining honest and transparent here, so as long as I'm living up to that, I don't care if you decide to have a field day with my posts, whether warranted or not.

Have a good day, my friend.


It's ok to be wrong. You need to get better at it.

#91
Front Ranger

Posted 17 August 2017 - 10:28 AM

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Lmao. Dude, I was trolling you with that post. Warm July, cool August, and GOA ridge was in obvious contradiction to everything I've said this summer. :lol:

 

No, you copied your own post from the main May thread and put it in here. You obviously weren't trolling. Please stop lying.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#92
Front Ranger

Posted 17 August 2017 - 10:30 AM

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Cool. At least we're both on the record now.

 

Weird thing to say right after a troll post!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#93
Phil

Posted 17 August 2017 - 10:35 AM

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It's ok to be wrong. You need to get better at it.


Yeah. For some reason, I changed my seasonal forecast for a single afternoon, then changed it back the next day. I should learn to be more stubborn and stick to my ideas no matter what.

... :lol:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#94
Phil

Posted 17 August 2017 - 10:49 AM

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Once again, I'll have to dig up my posts from the preceding weeks and months to refute misguided criticism from the same group of posters. It's like deja-vu all over again.

Either I lack the ability to (contextually) express my intentions in an internet forum setting, or I'm just dealing with a few dim lightbulbs. Either way, it's annoying and disheartening.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#95
Phil

Posted 17 August 2017 - 11:07 AM

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Some examples from back in April, only a few weeks before I made these posts. I can re-post several more if needs be.

I was forecasting a GOA trough at the time, and I was still forecasting it afterwards. :lol:

I expect a largely zonal/GOA trough pattern to open the warm season, which would increase the full column moisture transport into northwest North America, and deliver more precipitation to the region as a whole. Whatever your local microclimates do is beyond my pay grade.

Tough call IMO. The lackluster dateline convection makes it very difficult to sustain west coast ridging. Until that changes, I'm leaning towards a long term continuation of the GOA trough/zonal flow regime, with the typical intraseasonal burps.


It's funny, because so much of what I was forecasting turned out to be embarrassingly wrong, as the exceptionally warm EPAC and cool IO/WPAC had me fooled into using warm EPAC/cold WPAC analogs. That regime completely reversed in June and shifted everything westward.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#96
Phil

Posted 17 August 2017 - 11:17 AM

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There's a ton of bump-trolling material in that thread, given how wrong I was about the continuation of the warm EPAC circulation. But instead you guys choose to infatuate yourselves over what is obviously a troll post?

Man, this forum sometimes. :lol:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#97
Jesse

Posted 17 August 2017 - 12:43 PM

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Seek help, Phil.

#98
Phil

Posted 17 August 2017 - 01:12 PM

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Seek help, Phil.


You're going to mummify yourself in tinfoil at this rate.

Yeah, Jesse, I lied about my entire vacation, randomly reversed my summer forecast for 12hrs, reversed it right back, then I personally set all those fires in western Canada knowing NE winds would push the smoke into the PNW and ruin the heatwave.

F**king nutcase.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#99
Front Ranger

Posted 13 September 2017 - 01:56 PM

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Whoops, missed that one. Still the overall composite for those years shows a clear cool West (including PNW) and warm east pattern, which is what I'd lean towards.

 

attachicon.gifcd75.166.62.76.213.18.6.25.prcp.png

 

It's not working out great from a calendar standpoint thanks to the very warm start to the month, but it does appear that September will be the month that the large scale pattern flips to cool West/warm east. I just had it happening a little earlier.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#100
Front Ranger

Posted 29 September 2017 - 03:46 PM

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Phil, if we roll your May analogs forward to the summer, this is what we get. Is this about what you're expecting?

 

attachicon.gifcd67.6.172.175.144.19.0.51.prcp.png

 

 

Yeah, essentially a classic Niña look. Exact longitude of the trough axis might verify somewhat farther west/east of the analog mean, but not by enough to change the end result much.

 

Not making anything up.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.