gabel23 Posted April 27, 2017 Report Share Posted April 27, 2017 We are looking at a very dynamic storm coming out into the plains this weekend. There is really good agreement by the models with showing a tremendous amount of precipitation falling, including the possibility of some snow. Discuss!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted April 27, 2017 Report Share Posted April 27, 2017 Nothing says May like snow! Snow is falling in the Rockies today with this system as well. NWS says the upper level temps are a 1 in 10 year event. 4 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 27, 2017 Report Share Posted April 27, 2017 Nothing says May like snow! Snow is falling in the Rockies today with this system as well. NWS says the upper level temps are a 1 in 10 year event. How did your winter stack up this past cold season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2017 OAX sure is paying attention to this weekend! As closed low moves closer Sunday, forecast soundings suggest a goodchance for a complete changeover to snow in northeast Nebraska, andat least a mix in all of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. If GFSand NAM position wins out, dynamics would tend to cool to belowfreezing deeper column of air just above the surface, leading to allsnow in more of our area. Will have to see model trends the nextcouple of runs to really pin this down, but given widespread QPFtotaling over an inch in eastern Nebraska, if a change to snow doesoccur over a wider area, expected duration and rates will lead tosome significant accumulations of heavy and wet snow. For now, theuncertainty in all of the above factors leads us to maintain onlyminor accumulations of snow in northeast Nebraska, with a mention ofrain snow mix over the rest of the area on Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 27, 2017 Report Share Posted April 27, 2017 MPX playing it safe with regards to snow, as they should. "Heavy precip is a certainty this weekend, and major snow accumulations possible." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 27, 2017 Report Share Posted April 27, 2017 18z NAM slowed this system down as well did the 12z Euro compared to yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 27, 2017 Report Share Posted April 27, 2017 18z NAM slowed this system down as well did the 12z Euro compared to yesterday.Euro has been the western/slower outlier for a few runs....giving pause on the true snowfall potential, at least here. I just read the full AFD from MPX and they think east/weaker might be the way to go. All options on the table apparently. EDIT: well, 18z GFS has a 988 over extreme NW MO at hr 84, so there's that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Meh.....mostly rain here as it stands now. It could snow pretty good NW of here. It was fun tracking a potential May snow, but just like this winter things just didn't pan out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Meh.....mostly rain here as it stands now. It could snow pretty good NW of here. It was fun tracking a potential May snow, but just like this winter things just didn't pan out.Ya, it looks like CO/KS will be the winners here. All the models are locking in W KS and SE CO with the heaviest snows ATM. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042806/gfs_asnow_scus_11.png 12z NA3km... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017042812/nam3km_asnow_scus_61.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Some posters in NE may still see snow out of this...still snows beyond this... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017042812/nam3km_asnow_ncus_61.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 SNOW FREE ZONE!!! Yes! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 12z NAM still gives me 5" using Kuchera. I don't buy it. But still a dynamic system to be entertained with this weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 12z GFS a bit colder this run for NE...models may be latching onto the cold ULL... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042812/gfs_asnow_ncus_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Was informed about an hour ago that it was snowing like crazy in Kearney, NE and the snow is accumulating. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Was informed about an hour ago that it was snowing like crazy in Kearney, NE and the snow is accumulating.That's where our member CentralNeb lives! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Funny thing is the one model that is still fairly confident for us in LNK is the same model that poo-pooed many of our chances, and that is the in-house RPM model that the local news station uses, giving us 5". Disregarding that as an outlier, looks like we shouldn't be expecting May snowfall. It's severe weather season anyway. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Getting close to my door I know that..... ...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANUNUSUALLY COLD SYSTEM...KSZ005-017-NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072>074-082>084-290900-/O.NEW.KGID.WS.A.0002.170430T0200Z-170501T1100Z/Phillips-Rooks-Valley-Greeley-Sherman-Howard-Dawson-Buffalo-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-Including the cities of Phillipsburg, Codell, Plainville,Stockton, Ord, Greeley, Spalding, Scotia, Wolbach, Loup City,Sherman Reservoir, Litchfield, St. Libory, Lexington, Cozad,Willow Island, Gothenburg, Kearney, Elwood, Johnson Lake,Holdrege, Minden, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City,Hollinger, Alma, Orleans, Franklin, Campbell, and Hildreth326 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGHLATE SUNDAY NIGHT...The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a WinterStorm Watch, which is in effect from Saturday evening throughlate Sunday night.* MAIN HAZARD...Heavy wet snow.* PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION...Possibly several inches.* TIMING...Saturday evening through late Sunday night...with theheaviest snow Sunday afternoon and evening.* LOCATION...West of Highway 281. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Central Nebraska might be right in the heart of it, good luck to him!! Or unlucky for him, for goodness sakes its almost May!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Central Nebraska might be right in the heart of it, good luck to him!! Or unlucky for him, for goodness sakes its almost May!! I hope he comes back on here and posts... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 12z GFS a bit colder this run for NE...models may be latching onto the cold ULL... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042812/gfs_asnow_ncus_15.pngHaha nice strip of snow IMBY! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Watches and Warnings flying now for NE....CO...KS!! Some places 8-12" with 30-40mph winds and 55mph gusts! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Historic snowstorm heading towards CO/KS and OK/TX Panhandle???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 12z WRF... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 Historic snowstorm heading towards CO/KS and OK/TX Panhandle???? 12z WRF... That would be historic for a lot of people! Hastings NWS had an interesting write up in this afternoon's discussion, if even half that falls we could be talking some major damage to trees and power lines. Precip: A very wet system will be in progress Sun and end by dawnMon. There are a couple minor/light precip possibilities until Wedeve...but they will pale in comparison to this weekend. Periods of rain will cont Sat night thru Sun night...but there ispotential for rain to mix with and/or change to snow...possiblymoreso than we currently have depicted in the fcst. We areespecially concerned about Sun afternoon-eve when the deformationzone pivots over the FA. Precip will probably fall as snow formuch of the day Sun into Sun night. Accumulating snow late in thespring or fall (when leaves are on the trees) is bad news. We saw how easy this cold air mass produced snow today...especially along and N of I-80. WATCH REASONING: Ordinarily we have warning or near-warning-lvlsnowfall in the fcst when we issue a Winter Stm Watch (WSW). Thatis 6" in 12 hrs or 8" in 24 hrs. Parts of this watch area do nothave 6". However...we have the discretion to issue based onimpacts (or potential impacts). We remain very concerned about the potential for hvy wet snowmainly Sun afternoon into Sun eve. There are mitigating factors(warm ground etc). If it difficult for snow to accumulationduring the day at this time of year. This very well may up mostlymelting on contact...but just in case it doesn`t...we don`t wantpeople to be caught unaware. Svrl inches of hvy/wet snow with so much foliage on the treeswould be devastating with widespread damage and power outageswhere trees exist. Much of the greatest tree coverage is in townsand cities. It is entirely possible the accum does not pan out (which wouldbe very good) and that much of it will melt on contact. If thisoccurs...this will not be a busted fcst. WSW`s only need 50%confidence. We`ve issued this to highlight the "potential" forwhat would be damaging accumulations of snow. In the end...for this fcstr...the cost of not issuing and a majorsnowfall occurring is just too great. Please cont to closely monitor the fcst this weekend. One other potential for hazard wx is high winds Sun. Even if wedon`t issue a Winter Wx Advisory or a Winter Storm Warning...wemight need a High Wind Warning for part or most of the FA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 Crazy, where was this during the winter???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 I picked up .70" of rain this morning, looking like another 1.50" at least. It would be pretty cool if some of that falls as snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 0.39" here from the Friday disturbance... now just waiting to see how the frontal convection well to the south affects how much moisture makes it up here later today. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 Taking a look at some web cams over in W KS and the TX Panhandle, snow is definitely accumulating in the deep south this morning. Kerrick, TX...near the TX/OK border... Johnson City, KS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 @ Tom #nuts! As of now, mby is riding the line of flood watches by GRR. Keeping everything crossed that this is indeed a near miss. Was just planning to clean up from the water ingress that has taken the past 4 wks to recede. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 @ Tom #nuts! As of now, Look at how all those trees and brush are being crushed by the weight of the snow...no bueno! Wonder if parts of W KS exceed the 1' mark. Local NWS in those parts still calling for 12"+...we shall see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 Look at how all those trees and brush are being crushed by the weight of the snow...no bueno! Wonder if parts of W KS exceed the 1' mark. Local NWS in those parts still calling for 12"+...we shall see.Yep, and trees aren't a dime a dozen out there like here in Michigan 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 One thing I'm benefiting from this storm are the cooler temps and the crazy winds we had here yesterday. Blowing dust all day long. Feels great out there after some recent heat. The ULL tracked through the 4 corners and brought some light snow into the mountains of eastern AZ, more so in parts of NM though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 12z NAM-3km.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017042912/nam3km_asnow_ncus_60.png Trends have been favoring a shift NW with the heavier rains right over my area back home... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017042912/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_19.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 12z NAM...even worse in terms of rain... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017042912/namconus_apcpn_ncus_27.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 I'm rooting for the NAM for the win! Trends have been to bring this thing further NW, bringing the SLP up through southeast nebraska. I would say that's probably the best bet; all storms this year have taken that track. I need this thing further southeast if I'm going to see any snow. Meanwhile, winter storm warning out for central nebraska. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Hastings NE438 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017...A strong and unusually cold upper level low pressure systemcrossing the Plains will bring the potential for accumulatingsnowfall to western portions of the area this weekend.Precipitation will also be accompanied by strong northerlywinds...KSZ005-NEZ072-073-082-083-292100-/O.CON.KGID.WS.W.0004.170430T0600Z-170501T1100Z/Phillips-Gosper-Phelps-Furnas-Harlan-Including the cities of Phillipsburg, Elwood, Johnson Lake,Holdrege, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City, Hollinger,Alma, and Orleans438 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO6 AM CDT MONDAY...* MAIN HAZARD...Heavy wet snow.* SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 to 6 inches are currently forecast, withlocally higher amounts possible. The highest amounts areexpected to fall across western portions of the area.* TIMING...Late tonight through late Sunday night. The heaviestsnow is expected to fall during the day Sunday.* WINDS...North winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to 50 mphwill be possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 Read Gary's blog, his power cast model looks a lot like the NAM, if that's the case then eastern nebraska has a chance at seeing some snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 Not gonna lie....a bit jealous here....wish i was in that WSW! I would love to see a big heavy wet snow.Picked up 0.32" of rain from the Friday system.Current storm bout ready to push in. Radar looks wet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 The Metrodome is gone, but the Twin Cities dome is in full effect. Lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 Models continue to spit out massive totals. Wild Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 Can u post them james Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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