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May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

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#2001
Phil

Posted Today, 09:04 AM

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JJA was not cooler than normal for the region overall. More above normal areas, actually.

JJA16TDeptWRCC-NW.png

I can't make the same map for June-September, but if I could it would be right around average overall.


J/A/S was mostly normal west of the cascades, but cooler than average across the majority of the PNW:

B8409A10-5D1C-4335-9559-0633957895E6_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#2002
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 09:04 AM

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JJA was not cooler than normal for the region overall. More above normal areas, actually.

 

attachicon.gifJJA16TDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

I can't make the same map for June-September, but if I could it would be right around average overall.

 

Didn't we debate all last summer?  I thought I was proven wrong and warmth was just a local phenomenon around the Puget Sound area.

 

It was not a hot summer for sure.   



#2003
Phil

Posted Today, 09:09 AM

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Didn't we debate all last summer? I thought I was proven wrong and warmth was just a local phenomenon around the Puget Sound area.

It was not a hot summer for sure.


I think our battles were over J/A/S. I was forecasting a troughy second half of summer and thought it would pull the late summer trimonthly average negative, which only partially worked out thanks to that mysterious "mild bubble" over Puget Sound.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#2004
ShawniganLake

Posted Today, 09:12 AM

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Last J/A/S was actually colder than 2011 @ 850mb. For whatever reason it didn't efficiently translate to the surface.

The NE Pacific was much colder in 2011.

#2005
Phil

Posted Today, 09:14 AM

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The NE Pacific was much colder in 2011.


Then why didn't it affect NorCal? Even PDX finished slightly cooler than average for J/A/S. I'm not a microclimate person, so I have no clue here.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#2006
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 09:39 AM

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Regardless, June is a part of summer, and if you go June-September, it was normal to slightly above. Meteorological summer was warmer than normal.

Not a cool summer, that's for sure.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2007
ShawniganLake

Posted Today, 10:04 AM

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Then why didn't it affect NorCal? Even PDX finished slightly cooler than average for J/A/S. I'm not a microclimate person, so I have no clue here.

Did it finish cooler than 2011 though.

#2008
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 11:03 AM

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12Z ECMWF on board as well with jet extension into PNW later next week.   



#2009
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 11:20 AM

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12Z ECMWF on board as well with jet extension into PNW later next week.   

 

It also pushes back the hottest day of the week to Tuesday. With a big marine push on Wednesday.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2010
Phil

Posted Today, 11:22 AM

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The bias corrected 12z GEFS took a big step in the cooler direction during the d11-15 period, and also jumped towards an extended jet episode after Memorial Day.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#2011
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 11:46 AM

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Last summer was pretty warm, but not blistering like the two previous summers. 2013 was a warm summer too. We re due for a cooler one.
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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#2012
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 01:06 PM

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Even with the aggressive troughiness on the 12Z ECMWF... the surface detail maps only show a little light rain on Thursday into Friday morning and then partly cloudy and in the low 70s the following weekend.    



#2013
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 01:30 PM

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Even with the aggressive troughiness on the 12Z ECMWF... the surface detail maps only show a little light rain on Thursday into Friday morning and then partly cloudy and in the low 70s the following weekend.


I wouldn't even call it aggressive troughiness. More just seasonable marine intrusion.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2014
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 01:34 PM

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I wouldn't even call it aggressive troughiness. More just seasonable marine intrusion.

 

I guess I meant much more aggressive than the last couple runs.  Not really aggressive compared to the event early last week. 



#2015
Jesse

Posted Today, 03:10 PM

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Last summer was pretty warm, but not blistering like the two previous summers. 2013 was a warm summer too. We re due for a cooler one.


I don't know. I just asked my sunglasses, cold beer and flips flops and they all agree we are due for another scorcher!!! B)

#2016
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 03:11 PM

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I don't know. I just asked my sunglasses, cold beer and flips flops and they all agree we are due for another scorcher!!! B)

 

Sounds great.



#2017
Jesse

Posted Today, 03:12 PM

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Sounds great.


I would ask my jet skis too but I don't have any.

#2018
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 03:17 PM

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I would ask my jet skis too but I don't have any.

 

My boat agreed with you.  



#2019
Jesse

Posted Today, 03:42 PM

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My boat agreed with you.


Boats can't think or talk, silly!

#2020
Jesse

Posted Today, 04:15 PM

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Looks like there's some spotty convection trying to drift off the Cascades and move toward the Vancouver area from the NE.

#2021
Deweydog

Posted Today, 04:51 PM

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Looks like there's some spotty convection trying to drift off the Cascades and move toward the Vancouver area from the NE.


We had one low roller here a few minutes ago. Definitely the kind of 5-25 thunder that preceded all of our hottest and most upsetting summers.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2022
Jesse

Posted Today, 04:53 PM

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We had one low roller here a few minutes ago. Definitely the kind of 5-25 thunder that preceded all of our hottest and most upsetting summers.


****!

Not a good sign.

#2023
wx_statman

Posted Today, 05:36 PM

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Last J/A/S was actually colder than 2011 @ 850mb. For whatever reason it didn't efficiently translate to the surface.

 

It's a little misleading to use JAS here, as 2011 turned hot after 8/15. September was one of the warmest on record regionally. 

 

That summer is remembered for being regionally cool prior to mid-August, so referencing JJA would have been more relevant here. 


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#2024
Deweydog

Posted Today, 05:38 PM

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****!

Not a good sign.


I'm creating a litany of analog maps to show we're completely screwed.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2025
Phil

Posted Today, 06:04 PM

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It's a little misleading to use JAS here, as 2011 turned hot after 8/15. September was one of the warmest on record regionally.

That summer is remembered for being regionally cool prior to mid-August, so referencing JJA would have been more relevant here.


Yeah, I was just comparing them. JAS 2011 was still warmer at 850mb compared to JAS 2016, yet 2016 finished warmer at the surface, for whatever reason.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#2026
wx_statman

Posted Today, 07:06 PM

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Yeah, I was just comparing them. JAS 2011 was still warmer at 850mb compared to JAS 2016, yet 2016 finished warmer at the surface, for whatever reason.

 

Yeah, I don't know. It might have been a few patterns that drove the discrepancy. For example, Sep. 2011 had a ridiculously long-lasting heat ridge, but PDX stayed between 87-93 the entire time. There were forecasts for 98-100 that never materialized. On the flip side, Aug. 2016 was able to maximize downslope flow on a few days to really squeeze out high surface readings. A few patterns like that can definitely swing the anomalies on the monthly scale. 


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#2027
IbrChris

Posted Today, 08:11 PM

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Three days 90+ over the long weekend seems pretty bullish. Especially considering a relatively small clout of ensemble members are advertising such a possibility, at least in the last few runs. But who knows, I guess.

You mean the ensemble mean? Both suggestive of 90-93 (~20c H8 temps). Might end up 2 days...we'll see.


The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.


#2028
Jesse

Posted Today, 08:23 PM

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You mean the ensemble mean? Both suggestive of 90-93 (~20c H8 temps). Might end up 2 days...we'll see.


It was a smaller group showing that spike up toward +20c the early part of next week. That has mostly faded the last few runs, though.

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