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May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Going to be an impressive wind event down the Strait of Juan de Fuca later tomorrow. (Especially considering the time of year). WRF is showing gusts in the 70mph range.

 

Marine push warning!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Going to be an impressive wind event down the Strait of Juan de Fuca later tomorrow. (Especially considering the time of year). WRF is showing gusts in the 70mph range.

Wow. I know we are supposed to get NW winds around 30mph or so tomorrow evening, but nothing like that. Very impressive NW push.

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On a national talk radio show I was listening to this morning, they had a poll. Which small-ish, trendy city would people want to move to: Austin, Portland, or Nashville? Portland won. So much for the gloomy spring of 2017 keeping people away!

Portland really sucks as a city. The western suburbs suck too. Clark and clackamas county are nice.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Portland really sucks as a city. The western suburbs suck too. Clark and clackamas county are nice.

 

I really like the Tualatin Valley... and the wine country area from Newberg to McMinnville and southward.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I really like the Tualatin Valley... and the wine country area from Newberg to McMinnville and southward.

 

That is the very SW edge of the PDX metro. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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On a national talk radio show I was listening to this morning, they had a poll. Which small-ish, trendy city would people want to move to: Austin, Portland, or Nashville? Portland won. So much for the gloomy spring of 2017 keeping people away!

sounds like a boring radio show.
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Why do you say that? What cities do you prefer (that are at least 500k people)?

 

San Diego

Phoenix

Dallas

Austin

San Antonio

Denver (Not a huge fan, but the sports teams break the tie.)

 

Colorado Springs has just under 500K, but it would be on the list too...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Portland has terrible traffic for a city its size. A completely dysfunctional local government, poor infrastructure, only one major sports franchise, an out of control homeless population. 

 

On the other hand on the positive, it is a beautiful city and has relatively low crime. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I wonder when the last time we had a Memorial Day weekend with sunshine and highs in the 80s on all 3 days?

 

I know the last 2 years were not so nice... we escaped to Eastern WA.   Knowing how it usually goes for Memorial Day weekend... a couple months ago we booked a suite in Richland on the Columbia River (with their own boat launch and marina) for this weekend where we stayed last year.    That area is really nice and the weather is almost always warm by this point in the year.  Boating, wineries, and golfing all right there.   But we are canceling it now given that it will be 80s here and approaching 100 there.     :)

 

Here is picture from last year on Memorial Day weekend in Richland...

 

13227434_1003372279730980_67036624133719

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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San Diego

Phoenix

Dallas

Austin

San Antonio

Denver (Not a huge fan, but the sports teams break the tie.)

 

Colorado Springs has just under 500K, but it would be on the list too...

 

And you love cold, rainy weather all summer??   Seems like a terrible list of cities for you.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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sounds like a boring radio show.

 

Yeah for real. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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And you love cold, rainy weather all summer??   Seems like a terrible list of cities for you.  

 

They are nice places to visit. I would never live in a city over 500K anyways.

 

I went to Chicago for a week last year and thoroughly enjoyed my time there. Went to a Cubs and White Sox game, the NFL draft, Trump tower ;)

 

I would never live in Chicago though. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Conservative safe havens!

 

Not Austin. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I like the 12Z ECMWF... even 10 days out it does not show a huge change.    That massive trough in the Bering Sea keeps reloading.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017052312/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017052312/ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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San Diego

Phoenix

Dallas

Austin

San Antonio

Denver (Not a huge fan, but the sports teams break the tie.)

 

Colorado Springs has just under 500K, but it would be on the list too...

I would not enjoy a city without real seasons, or one with super hot/humid summers.

 

That's just weather, though. I wouldn't mind San Antonio or Austin otherwise.

 

From what I've seen, Portland traffic is about average for a city its size. Definitely gotten worse, though.

A forum for the end of the world.

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I wonder when the last time we had a Memorial Day weekend with sunshine and highs in the 80s on all 3 days?

 

I know the last 2 years were not so nice... we escaped to Eastern WA.   Knowing how it usually goes for Memorial Day weekend... a couple months ago we booked a suite in Richland on the Columbia River (with their own boat launch and marina) for this weekend where we stayed last year.    That area is really nice and the weather is almost always warm by this point in the year.  Boating, wineries, and golfing all right there.   But we are canceling it now given that it will be 80s here and approaching 100 there.     :)

 

Here is picture from last year on Memorial Day weekend in Richland...

 

13227434_1003372279730980_67036624133719

This is just false advertising. Literally the only nice shot in town, it would still look deserty and shitty if you did a 360 pano.

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This is just false advertising. Literally the only nice shot in town, it would still look deserty and shitty if you did a 360 pano.

That's a pretty area actually. We did a trip out to Hanford Reach monument, Columbia Wildlife Refuge and Palouse Falls two Memorial Days ago, and it was beautiful.

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This is just false advertising. Literally the only nice shot in town, it would still look deserty and shitty if you did a 360 pano.

 

Its a desert... no kidding.   That is why its also a great close escape.   There are many great vistas from the wineries up on the hills.   The desert can be beautiful.   

 

I realize there are rough areas in the Tri-Cities but there are some really nice aspects as well.  

 

http://www.visittri-cities.com/media/2619/tc_mp_mainimage_02.jpg?anchor=center&mode=crop&width=1300&height=916&rnd=131055379290000000

 

e6750b01d3deb3a98f876f899dd98499.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like a lot of boring weather coming up. I guess the next few days look intersting at least.

Boring weather can be really fun depending on the activties planned. :)

 

We have seen enough "active" weather this year and I am sure there will be more. I am relishing the boring, reliable sunny weather while it lasts.

 

We don't even really have to track the marine layer after tomorrow.   Thursday looks mostly sunny and pleasant again already with highs close to 70.   And its really warm again by Friday.  

 

We have earned it this year.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Boring weather can be really fun depending on the activties planned. :)

 

We have seen enough "active" weather this year and I am sure there will be more. I am relishing the boring, reliable sunny weather while it lasts.

 

We don't even really have to track the marine layer after tomorrow. Thursday looks mostly sunny and pleasant again already with highs close to 70. And its really warm again by Friday.

 

We have earned it this year.

Yikes. I must have voiced a difference of opinion. My bad.

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Boring weather can be really fun depending on the activties planned. :)

 

We have seen enough "active" weather this year and I am sure there will be more. I am relishing the boring, reliable sunny weather while it lasts.

 

We don't even really have to track the marine layer after tomorrow.   Thursday looks mostly sunny and pleasant again already with highs close to 70.   And its really warm again by Friday.  

 

We have earned it this year.

 

Wettest Feb-Apr in history followed by warmest/boringest second half of May in history?

 

Looks possible!

A forum for the end of the world.

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Wettest Feb-Apr in history followed by warmest/boringest second half of May in history?

 

Looks possible!

 

Is it really the warmest second half of May ever?   

 

Like I said... we certainly earned a dry and pleasant period of quiet weather.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Dare I say... when the ridge breaks down maybe late next week it will actually be nice to see some rain.   I hope it does not turn into 3 weeks of rain... but some rain for a couple days would be nice at that point.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Is it really the warmest second half of May ever?

 

Like I said... we certainly earned a dry and pleasant period of quiet weather.

If the 12z Euro verified, would certainly be in the running for a lot of places. Gets really warm again after Memorial Day weekend. And that's with the 15-17th having been quite cool.

 

People thought I was joking when I said top 10 warm May last week.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Dare I say... when the ridge breaks down maybe late next week it will actually be nice to see some rain. I hope it does not turn into 3 weeks of rain... but some rain for a couple days would be nice at that point.

It won't be a Pacific hose job (at least not initially). Heights will build over Siberia and the Aleutians, so the trough axis will center right along the west coast, rather than offshore. After a few weeks, there's more potential for a larger GOA trough and zonal flow aloft after the NH AAM integral bottoms out.

 

Yesterday the models started catching on to the upstream removal of AAM, but today they've gone back to mishandling the resultant displacement of mass and momentum (which will build and force the Aleutian ridge). The snap back to reality can't be far away now, though.

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