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May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


stuffradio

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Pretty impressive cool/dry airmass for late July moving in this evening.

 

Here's one you might appreciate:

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/keug/1997/5/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Portland&req_state=OR&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=97218&reqdb.magic=4&reqdb.wmo=99999

 

Quite the clipper on May 19-20, 1997. I remember this one. Broke a two week long heat wave with a classic retrogression. 

 

EUG dropped from 81 to 46 between 4-10pm, and was down to 35 the following morning. PDX had a pretty dramatic cooldown as well, from 82 to 53 by midnight. 

May20_1997.gif

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Here's one you might appreciate:

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/keug/1997/5/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Portland&req_state=OR&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=97218&reqdb.magic=4&reqdb.wmo=99999

 

Quite the clipper on May 19-20, 1997. I remember this one. Broke a two week long heat wave with a classic retrogression. 

 

EUG dropped from 81 to 46 between 4-10pm, and was down to 35 the following morning. PDX had a pretty dramatic cooldown as well, from 82 to 53 by midnight. 

 

 

Denver-esque.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Lots of power outages in southern BC this evening. Trial island, just south of Victoria has gusted above 70mph.

 

Had a brief period of moderate wind here and now completely calm and cloudy.      

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Totally clear here. Temp dropped to 55F currently after a late morning high of 77F.

 

Down to 62 here after a high of 83.   

 

It was still calm and 81 degrees at 5:30 and then it crashed.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Kershaw is pitching. We ll talk weather later guys.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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High of 86 today, record was 88 in 2001.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I'm ready for fall.

 

You want to skip the best time of year?!?  :P

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Your the cleverest!

 

Sad thing is, you were being sincerely prickish. Flatiron would probably put you in his mouth, or so I've heard...

 

You're

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z GFS is more consolidated with the jet later next week...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017052400/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_41.png

 

00Z GEM is not... but its the GEM.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017052400/gem_z500_mslp_namer_41.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z GFS is more consolidated with the jet later next week...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017052400/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_41.png

 

00Z GEM is not... but its the GEM.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017052400/gem_z500_mslp_namer_41.png

 

I would not weight the GFS over any model at this point. You saw Phil's graph. It's in special-needs mode.

A forum for the end of the world.

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I would not weight the GFS over any model at this point. You saw Phil's graph. It's in special-needs mode.

The GEM is actually running behind the GFS, astonishingly.

 

Even the ECMWF is taking a dive now, though it's running much above the GFS. The ECMWF is the gold standard, as usual.

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If the 12z Euro verified, would certainly be in the running for a lot of places. Gets really warm again after Memorial Day weekend. And that's with the 15-17th having been quite cool.

 

People thought I was joking when I said top 10 warm May last week.

And a certain somebody I won't name any names was blasting his views about a huge *Crash* coming up something about the dateline and the IO bringing convection.  First he said it by now then pushed it to late May and now it may not even happen at all?   However I DONT' blame that person I just blame the GFS which is a bad outdated model and other models need to put on ignore when forecasting long range.

 

The GFS needs to go! Garbage Forecasting System.

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And a certain somebody I won't name any names was blasting his views about a huge *Crash* coming up something about the dateline and the IO bringing convection.  First he said it by now then pushed it to late May and now it may not even happen at all?   However I DONT' blame that person I just blame the GFS which is a bad outdated model and other models need to put on ignore when forecasting long range.

 

The GFS needs to go! Garbage Forecasting System.

 

I don't think the certain somebody you're talking about uses the GFS for his forecasts. Just saying.  :lol:

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And a certain somebody I won't name any names was blasting his views about a huge *Crash* coming up something about the dateline and the IO bringing convection. First he said it by now then pushed it to late May and now it may not even happen at all? However I DONT' blame that person I just blame the GFS which is a bad outdated model and other models need to put on ignore when forecasting long range.

 

The GFS needs to go! Garbage Forecasting System.

A certain someone should probably read more and post less.

 

If you're going to put words in my mouth, you should at least have the stones to call me out by name. :)

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