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PDX "Latest First" Benchmarks


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I don't know of any other place that has this information summarized, so here it is:

 

Latest "First 55"

 

2/24/1949

2/23/1950

2/20/1964

2/19/1942

2/18/1969

 

Latest "First 60"

 

3/31/2011

3/27/1955

3/21/2000

3/20/2006

3/19/1999

 

Latest "First 65"

 

4/21/2017

4/18/1950

4/18/1945

4/11/1975

4/11/1954

 

Latest "First 70"

 

5/5/1967

5/3/2017

5/1/1970

4/28/1963

4/28/1961

 

Latest "First 75"

 

6/3/2011

5/26/1964

5/18/1978

5/18/1955

5/17/1963

 

Latest "First 80"

 

6/12/2010

6/9/1991

6/7/1955

6/5/1977

6/4/2011

 

Latest "First 85"

 

7/7/1980

7/7/1964

7/6/2010

7/1/1991

6/29/1943 (T)

6/29/1942 (T)

 

Latest "First 90"

 

-/-/1954 (none recorded)

9/13/1957

8/20/2011

8/10/1964

8/4/2012

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Love reading this stuff.

 

The 1954 warm season was just crazy anomalous, the warmest temp recorded all year was 86 and that was in mid-May. Hard to imagine a summer like that ever happening again... and if it did, Tim would absolutely lose it. Was probably incredibly cloudy. Even looking at downtown records back to 1875 I'm pretty sure it's the only summer on record not to hit 90.

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Love reading this stuff.

 

The 1954 warm season was just crazy anomalous, the warmest temp recorded all year was 86 and that was in mid-May. Hard to imagine a summer like that ever happening again... and if it did, Tim would absolutely lose it. Was probably incredibly cloudy. Even looking at downtown records back to 1875 I'm pretty sure it's the only summer on record not to hit 90.

 

Pretty remarkable stuff. We got brushed by a major heat wave during that mid-May period. Rome in SE Oregon hit 99 and a number of stations in ID and MT set monthly record highs. And that was it for the year. The ridge axis remained to the east, numerous all-time record highs fell in June and July in the Front Range region and in the plains, while we stayed in the onshore flow. Hard to imagine being locked into the same pattern for the entirety of JJA, but it happened that year.

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Pretty remarkable stuff. We got brushed by a major heat wave during that mid-May period. Rome in SE Oregon hit 99 and a number of stations in ID and MT set monthly record highs. And that was it for the year. The ridge axis remained to the east, numerous all-time record highs fell in June and July in the Front Range region and in the plains, while we stayed in the onshore flow. Hard to imagine being locked into the same pattern for the entirety of JJA, but it happened that year.

 

Indeed. Boulder set both their June and July record temps that summer (104 for both), and they haven't been hotter than 101 since. And yet July 1954 had a stretch of 3 straight days that were all 102+...three days in a row that have not been equaled since!

 

Cheyenne also set their all-time high of 100 in June 1954.

 

Colorado Springs set their all-time high of 100 in July 1954, though it was eventually surpassed by the June 2012 heatwave. And they also set their September all-time record with 99.

 

There were reliable reports of temps up to 108 or 109 in the Front Range region the summer of 1954. Nothing has exceeded that since, and very few events have come close.

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Indeed. Boulder set both their June and July record temps that summer (104 for both), and they haven't been hotter than 101 since. And yet July 1954 had a stretch of 3 straight days that were all 102+...three days in a row that have not been equaled since!

 

Cheyenne also set their all-time high of 100 in June 1954.

 

Colorado Springs set their all-time high of 100 in July 1954, though it was eventually surpassed by the June 2012 heatwave. And they also set their September all-time record with 99.

 

There were reliable reports of temps up to 108 or 109 in the Front Range region the summer of 1954. Nothing has exceeded that since, and very few events have come close.

 

Lots of parallels to the summers of 2011 and 2012. Not surprising that both of those years show up on the 90 degree list for PDX, along with 1954.

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Lots of parallels to the summers of 2011 and 2012. Not surprising that both of those years show up on the 90 degree list for PDX, along with 1954.

 

Yep. And 2009, which was a very cool summer here, was a very warm one for the PNW. That's how it usually works...with a few exceptions like 1958, 1993, and 2013.

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Yep. And 2009, which was a very cool summer here, was a very warm one for the PNW. That's how it usually works...with a few exceptions like 1958, 1993, and 2013.

 

Makes sense. I was looking at Stapleton and their coolest summer was in 1967. That one featured our hottest regionwide August on record.

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And here are the "Earliest Last" benchmarks for PDX:

 

Earliest "Last 55"

 

11/3/1985

11/15/1992

11/19/1984

11/20/1976

11/22/1948

 

Earliest "Last 60"

 

10/19/1956

10/21/1963

10/25/1946

10/25/1942

10/26/1994

 

Earliest "Last 65"

 

10/9/1984

10/9/1956

10/9/1951

10/10/1996

10/12/1971

 

Earliest "Last 70"

 

9/29/1949

10/2/1948

10/3/1968

10/4/1990

10/5/1985

 

Earliest "Last 75"

 

9/12/1959

9/13/1977

9/18/1981

9/19/2013

9/19/1948

 

Earliest "Last 80"

 

9/1/1978

9/6/1986

9/6/1955

9/8/2005

9/8/1968

 

Earliest "Last 85"

 

5/17/1954

8/13/1983

8/19/1941

8/24/1964

8/26/1985

 

Earliest "Last 90"

 

-/-/1954 (none recorded)

7/15/1976

7/30/2000

7/31/1959

8/8/1963

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Interesting to note that we've only seen one top-5 entry in the past decade (9/19/2013), compared to all the spring/early summer benchmarks we've been seeing. Perhaps there is some merit to the idea that our summers are lasting deeper into the calendar, with warm/hot weather not cutting off as early as in the past. 

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Interesting to note that we've only seen one top-5 entry in the past decade (9/19/2013), compared to all the spring/early summer benchmarks we've been seeing. Perhaps there is some merit to the idea that our summers are lasting deeper into the calendar, with warm/hot weather not cutting off as early as in the past. 

 

Yeah, the back half of the warm season has seen a much tougher time with seeing cool anomalies of any significance in the past few decades. 

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Interesting to note that we've only seen one top-5 entry in the past decade (9/19/2013), compared to all the spring/early summer benchmarks we've been seeing. Perhaps there is some merit to the idea that our summers are lasting deeper into the calendar, with warm/hot weather not cutting off as early as in the past. 

 

Definitely true, although the trend of cooler late springs/early summers and warmer late summers/early falls kind of reversed the past few years. Will be interesting to see if that was just a blip or not.

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Love reading this stuff.

 

The 1954 warm season was just crazy anomalous, the warmest temp recorded all year was 86 and that was in mid-May. Hard to imagine a summer like that ever happening again... and if it did, Tim would absolutely lose it. Was probably incredibly cloudy. Even looking at downtown records back to 1875 I'm pretty sure it's the only summer on record not to hit 90.

 

Yep, although 1921 and 1881 each featured only one single day at 90 and even as recently as 1976 there were stations around the Portland area that didn't record a 90+ day (PDX had just one). So a number of years with annual maximums in the 89-91 range around the area, but the annual maximums around the Portland area in 1954 were 85-87 across the board. Even the scorching Willamette Valley only topped out at 86 at EUG and 87 at SLE. 

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Definitely true, although the trend of cooler late springs/early summers and warmer late summers/early falls kind of reversed the past few years. Will be interesting to see if that was just a blip or not.

 

I dunno, I think that really only applies to 2013 and maybe 2016. You had 2015 that started hot, but it also had a pretty torchy October. Prior to that, the last really classic example of a warm start/cool finish to a warm season was 2007. 

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I dunno, I think that really only applies to 2013 and maybe 2016. You had 2015 that started hot, but it also had a pretty torchy October. Prior to that, the last really classic example of a warm start/cool finish to a warm season was 2007. 

 

Well, I'll illustrate what I mean. 

 

There were a lot of cool early warm seasons from 1998-2012. Notable ones: 1999, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012. At the same time, a lot of years in that period had very warm late warm seasons: 1998, 2003, 2008, 2011, 2012.

 

But then starting in 2013, we started to see much warmer late springs/early summers. That's been the case every year since 2013 (until this year, so far). At OLM, every single April, May and June was above the longterm average from 2013-16, with two record warm months.

 

Then in 2013, you had a very cool end to the warm season. And 2015/2016 both had cool to seasonable Septembers...in fact, at OLM both were cooler than any year since 2007. Yes, there have still been some very warm Augusts and Octobers in there, but overall the most consistently warm period has shifted to late spring/early summer - a far cry from the previous 15 years or so.

 

May/June will be telling this year!

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Interesting to note that we've only seen one top-5 entry in the past decade (9/19/2013), compared to all the spring/early summer benchmarks we've been seeing. Perhaps there is some merit to the idea that our summers are lasting deeper into the calendar, with warm/hot weather not cutting off as early as in the past.

Yeah, there was a notable shift in the seasonality of the NAM and ITCZ/Hadley Cells in the mid/late 1980s, which has mostly persisted since. Usually these fluctuations last 30-50 years.

 

The result was an poleward shifted WHEM ITCZ/Hadley Cell during boreal summer/fall, an equatorward shifted EHEM ITCZ/weak Asian monsoon, and a prolonging of the polar winter circulation.

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Well, I'll illustrate what I mean. 

 

There were a lot of cool early warm seasons from 1998-2012. Notable ones: 1999, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012. At the same time, a lot of years in that period had very warm late warm seasons: 1998, 2003, 2008, 2011, 2012.

 

But then starting in 2013, we started to see much warmer late springs/early summers. That's been the case every year since 2013 (until this year, so far). At OLM, every single April, May and June was above the longterm average from 2013-16, with two record warm months.

 

Then in 2013, you had a very cool end to the warm season. And 2015/2016 both had cool to seasonable Septembers...in fact, at OLM both were cooler than any year since 2007. Yes, there have still been some very warm Augusts and Octobers in there, but overall the most consistently warm period has shifted to late spring/early summer - a far cry from the previous 15 years or so.

 

May/June will be telling this year!

 

I see what you're saying, but it's not enough for me to draw inferences. 2013-2016 is not a very long time, featured historic late season warmth in both 2014 and 2015, was dominated by the blob/RRR, and with mostly positive ENSO. Too much noise going on there. 

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I see what you're saying, but it's not enough for me to draw inferences. 2013-2016 is not a very long time, featured historic late season warmth in both 2014 and 2015, was dominated by the blob/RRR, and with mostly positive ENSO. Too much noise going on there. 

 

Sure. I'll grant that the late season stuff is debatable, but there's no doubt that the early season stuff 2013-16 was a distinct departure from the previous 15+ years.

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Yeah, there was a notable shift in the seasonality of the NAM and ITCZ/Hadley Cells in the mid/late 1980s, which has mostly persisted since. Usually these fluctuations last 30-50 years.

 

The result was an poleward shifted WHEM ITCZ/Hadley Cell during boreal summer/fall, an equatorward shifted EHEM ITCZ/weak Asian monsoon, and a prolonging of the polar winter circulation.

The S/O/N Atlantic Meridional mode is an ideal reflector of this climate shift, since it correlates directly to the IO/ISM state:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FE2A2DA3-D461-412F-A844-52BF710E9D3E_zpswyrqlgft.png

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