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June 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Finally, summer is here!  We will flip the calendar into met Summer as grilling, boating, festivals, pool/outdoor parties and sun bathing season is upon us.  Will some folks roast in the heat, or not?? Who will continue to be drenched by heavy rains???  I'm fully anticipating a great month ahead that will be packed with storm chances and some stretches of very nice summery weather.  What may be in store???

 

Let's start first by taking a look at the CFSv2 and see what it's trends look like.  Cooler and Wet seems to be the theme.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201706.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201706.gif

 

 

 

The CanSIPS model comes out with it's new monthlies run later tonight.

 

 

CPC has trended for more widespread cool and wetness from the Rockies on East.  @Okwx is going to like this outlook!

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif

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Here is the latest JMA Weeklies forecast and the new monthly precip forecast:

 

DBO4kLbUQAEAP7b.jpg

 

 

Pretty much looks like a decent June forecast with near average temps overall and periods of above normal rain.  Could get drier 2nd half of the month???

 

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Here was the CanSIPS new run the other night for June:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017060100/cansips_T2ma_us_1.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017060100/cansips_apcpna_month_us_1.png

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Nippy indeed last night with lows in the upper 40s and here we are in June. Great "BonFire" indeed. I had ta grab the blankets for crying out loud. Warming trend down the road as 80s are nearing by next week, especially late in the week. :blink:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yes, it's looking pretty toasty here the next few days.  At the same time, models have really dried up.  The garden really needed some warm, dry weather, and they got it.  I hope we don't go too far the other way, though.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yes, it's looking pretty toasty here the next few days.  At the same time, models have really dried up.  The garden really needed some warm, dry weather, and they got it.  I hope we don't go too far the other way, though.

 

Getting that exact treatment in Marshall. Lawn showing signs of stress where it always shows first. I sure hope NOAA/CPC has much more of a clue than the CFSv2 on the moisture. CFS would be a disaster for MI since the past (2) weeks of "hit-n-miss" T-showers have almost entirely missed. Seems almost impossible to get avg anything anymore around my place. :rolleyes:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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While I sip on my coffee on this warm/sunny morning in AZ (80F @ 7:30am), I have been trying to figure out how strong the LRC ridges may become this month and throughout the rest of summer.  The first "test" will likely be next weekend to see if they will hit and hold or be more transient (as I expect).

 

Both GEFS/EPS show a big ridge blossom near the Plains/Lakes?Midwest next Sun-Tues as a strong PAC storm targets the PAC NW pumping up the ridge to the east.  Since we are in the summer, the jet is weakening considerably and drifting north into Canada as the seasonal shift sets in.  

 

However, it is my opinion that we may be seeing a stronger than usual jet stream interaction this summer.  The LRC's pattern over the PAC was raging all last autumn/winter and I got a feeling with the colder waters still in place over the N PAC this will keep the jet energized over the summer.  

 

Here is the ridge on the GEFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017060306/gfs-ens_z500a_us_33.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017060306/gfs-ens_z500a_us_37.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017060306/gfs-ens_z500a_us_41.png

 

 

 

I do think there will be stretches of warm/muggy weather but not like we saw last year where we had continued hot/humid air throughout the season.  Drier air masses out of Canada will get tugged down more often than not this season which I think many of us will enjoy.

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I'll post some more maps from the long lead CPC SST CA forecast leading into late Autumn.  We are heading out into the mountains to escape the heat today in the valley.  NWS issued an Excessive Heat Warning yesterday through Tuesday for the seasons first official heat wave.  Supposed to top out close to 110F today!  Near 80F up at 7,500ft elevation near Seven Lakes, AZ.

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I'll post some more maps from the long lead CPC SST CA forecast leading into late Autumn.  We are heading out into the mountains to escape the heat today in the valley.  NWS issued an Excessive Heat Warning yesterday through Tuesday for the seasons first official heat wave.  Supposed to top out close to 110F today!  Near 80F up at 7,500ft elevation near Seven Lakes, AZ.

 

"out west vs" of going the lakeshore - 2 great options to beat the heat! ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Things are definitely drying out around here. Had a small shower move through yesterday but haven't had a drop since the start of the month. Hope things pick back up soon, June is usually our month for severe weather and it has really calmed down recently. Unfortunately long-range models don't have that changing anytime soon.

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My yard has averaged eight inches of rain in June over the last decade, a pretty amazing number.  This June is at least starting out very differently.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hell yeah, bring it on!  90's this past weekend.  Calling for low to mid 90's around these parts next weekend.  Summer!

As long as there are cooler periods mixed in between...I'm game!  

 

ORD hit 90F a little earlier than normal this year...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/climate/90Facts.png

 

 

 

We enjoyed a beautiful day up in the mountains yesterday.  As we approached Willow Springs Lake, there was smoke being blown in from a forest fire near Snake Ridge up on the Mogollon Rim.  It was an interesting experience to drive through the smoke and get to our destination by the lake.  It smelled like someone was having a bon fire and it brought memories of back home when I go up to Wisconsin.  I took a pic of the thick, black smoke across the lake.  It was initially being blown in towards our direction, but then a E/SE wind kicked in and it cleared out.

 

https://ein.az.gov/emergency-information/emergency-bulletin/snake-ridge-fire-june-3rd-update-burnout-operations-will

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Heat is coming, first 90s of the season. Not sure if it will be considered a heatwave. I am forecasted to be 2 days in the 90s, but, a close call indeed.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I promised some long range maps that were issued the other day from CPC's long lead SST CA forecast.  Here are the late Summer/Early Autumn maps below:

 

JAS...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/cat2m_anom.1.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/caprec_anom.1.gif

 

 

 

ASO...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/cat2m_anom.2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/caprec_anom.2.gif

 

 

SON...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/cat2m_anom.3.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/caprec_anom.3.gif

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Wanna beat the heat this weekend in Lake Michigan and take a dip???  Might think twice with lakeshore temps in the upper 50's...

 

mswt-00.gif

 

I've seen GT Bay in the mid-40's water temp at 4th of July weekend. Detroit and downstate peeps came north with their boats fooled by the much warmer and longer spring wx downstate. Unfortunately, some dove off to their deaths via heart attacks. Had one cold water experience in East Bay and I'll never forget it! (was August at that). My dad helped rescue some dude who foolishly took his canoe out on Lk. Huron in April and capsized. This guy was maybe 60 seconds from slipping under when they got to him. Ya gotta respect the elements.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Heat is coming, first 90s of the season. Not sure if it will be considered a heatwave. I am forecasted to be 2 days in the 90s, but, a close call indeed.

 

Perfect week of 70's for Marshall. Where you at Homer??

 

Meanwhile, my Inlaws were saying how crazy the weather's been over their way. (There's our active wx, lol). At the end of May, they had the worst windstorm since '98, then June 1st it snowed enough to briefly whiten the ground. Avg high for June in Moscow is 72F

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Perfect week of 70's for Marshall. Where you at Homer??

 

Meanwhile, my Inlaws were saying how crazy the weather's been over their way. (There's our active wx, lol). At the end of May, they had the worst windstorm since '98, then June 1st it snowed enough to briefly whiten the ground. Avg high for June in Moscow is 72F

 

attachicon.gif20170606 Moscow windstorm.PNG

 

attachicon.gif20170606 Moscow June snow.PNG

Crazy stuff.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Gorgeous outlook, other than a few storms on Friday, my forecast is a mainly sunny and warm one and getting warmer to HOT. Heatwave is possible in SEMI by the weekend.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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/\  That's one toasty CONUS :)

 

KRMY hit 47º this morning, so up up and away we go. I like how ORD's graphic mentions humidity shouldn't be too bad. That helps a lot. Love me a 3-5 day heat wave. (in summer I'll add)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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/\ That's one toasty CONUS :)

 

KRMY hit 47º this morning, so up up and away we go. I like how ORD's graphic mentions humidity shouldn't be too bad. That helps a lot. Love me a 3-5 day heat wave. (in summer I'll add)

Temps in the 90's with low 60's dews I can deal with but when they creep up into the upper 60's and 70's...fogettaboutit!

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I'm hearing the gardens/lawns need a drink back home...12z GEFS signaling a very wet pattern Week 2.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017060712/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

I could use a cold drink myself, lol

 

So, as I've squawked about, SWMI suddenly went dry (not dry counties-can still get booze) over the past month. Marshall's actually not as bad off as most:

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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