June 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

I'm hearing the gardens/lawns need a drink back home...12z GEFS signaling a very wet pattern Week 2.

 

This weekend will be two weeks without rain and we may not get much next week, either.  Add to that the upcoming scorcher.  We are going to need the second half of June to come through.

[OKwx2k4]

Folks in the Plains and Midwest may be flirting with the "century mark" on Sunday...Euro high rez showing pockets near 100F!

 

 

You can see where the much needed moisture over eastern Oklahoma has helped to keep temperatures cooler than surrounding areas. I love this season so far.

[OKwx2k4]

Just now read an article after posting that that said the exact same thing I did.

 

 

Illustrates it pretty well.

[Tom]

Latest JMA suggesting an active central CONUS for the most part this month...upper level pattern setting up a battle zone as troughs swing in from the PAC NW.  This is symbolic of this year's LRC pattern.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a neat map of the world being forecast from the JMA.  Antarctic looks mighty cold during their Winter!  Another big year for Ice Gains???

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

NASA's early Winter guess???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_prate_us_season5.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season5.png

[Tom]

The Heat is on!

 

 

 

 

Interesting history of 90 day stretches this early in the season...

 

 

 

 

CHICAGO

Since 1872, only nine years have had four or more consecutive
days in the 90s prior to the midpoint of June (on or before June
15). The most recent was 18 years ago on June 8-11, 1999. The
earliest on record was May 3-6, 1949, while the longest early
season stretch was 9 days from May 16-24, 1977.

Years with 4+ consecutive 90 degree days prior to June`s midpoint:
1920, 1921, 1934, 1949, 1956, 1962, 1977, 1988, and 1999.

It should be noted that early season stretches of just 3
consecutive 90 degree days are much more common. The most recent
was June 9-11, 2012.

 

[Tom]

Impressive heat is being forecast for DSM with back-2-back 100's Sun/Mon.  If this was July/Aug it would feel even hotter with mature crops causing transpiration of moisture back into the air.  I'll take my 105F/36F today and call it a day!

 

If this pattern cycles through in early August, I can see some impressive heat return again and a pretty large Anti-Cyclonic HP forming in the southern Plains giving the time of year.

[jaster220]

 

The Heat is on!

 

Yep, but not the moisture

 

Actually saw periodic showers this morning, but looking back home in Marshall I'd call it another "tease event". Even if the gauge missed half, well you get the picture.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Yep, but not the moisture

 

Actually saw periodic showers this morning, but looking back home in Marshall I'd call it another "tease event". Even if the gauge missed half, well you get the picture.

 

20170609 KRMY qpf joking right..PNG

This heat wave will certainly dry out the region and I'd imagine the grass will start to turn brown in spots???

[NEJeremy]

22 months in a row of above average temps after June is done for Omaha. Better get used to it I guess!

[Niko]

Some clouds today, but heat is on its way! Full blown sun and warmth coming. A heatwave is looking more and more likely for lots on this forum. Turned on my sprinklers for the first time this season 2 days ago. It felt good seeing them watering my lawn. Its been awhile.       (Gotta watch that water bill though. )

[OKwx2k4]

Not weather related at all but very proud to have been a part of the group of guys that helped to create, machine, paint and build the rifles in this video.

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oOaHbXW3HAc

[Tom]

Will nature balance out the extremes this month??  From record heat this week into next week in the upper Plains/Midwest to a possible big down turn in temps Week 2-3??  It's on the table.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_20170609.NAsfcT.gif

[OKwx2k4]

I may not ever see 90º this month. There's a day coming up where it could be close but I don't think it will get there.

[Tom]

Official start of Summer is looking chilly on the 21st if the ensembles keep hanging on to the amplified pattern week 2. Enjoy the heat for those who like it. Pattern is gonna flip hard I think as the month rolls on. It'll be time (if my work gets done) to head home before the real torch begins out here just before Fathers Day weekend.

[Tom]

I have not seen any media outlets or circles talking about this but I've been diving into the Northern Hemisphere sea ice and comparing it to previous years.  If you look at the graph below, something very interesting stands out and it is rather significant if you ask me.  Notice the map below showing the global sea ice anomaly from 1979 to present day.  In 2016, there was an enormous drop in global sea ice which actually started mid 2015 as the super nino developed and the PAC ocean torched as well as others around the globe.  Pay attention to the drop in 2016 (off the charts).  It has never done this during the satellite era.  The AGW crowd would be watering at their mouths, however, what we have seen in a very short period of time is astounding.  Look at how fast the recovery has been as we closed out 2017.  It has shot out of a canon and I believe this is part of the overall reversal in the negative global sea ice trend which began in late 2012.  Many scientists believe this was the early stages of the new trend in global temps.

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

 

 

Interestingly, Newfoundland has had a bad start to their fishing season as there is way to much ice to go out to sea.

 

http://globalnews.ca/video/3501076/packed-sea-ice-prevent-newfoundland-fishermen-from-starting-season

 

Look what happened in 2016 for the Arctic Basin...there is no other year you can compare to the spike in ice coverage since 1979.  Nearly every region (if not all) showed a significant spike in 2016.

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/region.mask.gif

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/region.all.anom.region.1.jpg

 

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/region.all.anom.region.12.jpg

 

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/region.all.anom.region.5.jpg

 

 

 

With the Antarctic having a very cold start to Winter and the Arctic experiencing a cooler than normal summer so far, this year is going to be rather interesting in terms of global sea ice coverage and the years moving forward.  Interesting times ahead.

[Niko]

Summer conditions indeed.

[Tom]

I forgot which thread we spoke about the correlation between solar minimums and volcanoes/earthquake but I'll post this video here. This guy exaggerates sometimes but overall makes good points.

 

https://youtu.be/z19UsP9gKzw

[OKwx2k4]

Little Rock is running a streak now for latest 90 since the 1930s.

[Jaycee]

Probably overdone but it is absolutely pouring and this is from a few hours ago. We've been getting trained in LNK. Love it!!!!

[Tom]

Probably overdone but it is absolutely pouring and this is from a few hours ago. We've been getting trained in LNK. Love it!!!!Screenshot_20170612-110422.png

I'd love to be sitting underneath that rain shaft right now...just got out of the gym doing some fasted-cardio!

[Niko]

Another scorcher today as temps get ready to soar into the 90s once again.

[Tom]

As official summer kicks in, nature cools off those areas which have been torching...00z EPS 6-10...

 

[Tom]

First time we are able to take a glance into the CFSv2's take into next Winter using the CPC's weeklies.  Here are the SST/700mb/Temp/Precip maps...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd6.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd6.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd6.gif

[Tom]

Lately, the CFSv2 has been showing consistent runs of a possible NE PAC ridge in Oct/Nov reminiscent to the elusive "blob" we have seen nicknamed from the '13-'14 season.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd4.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd5.gif

[james1976]

[Tom]

Dont be teasing me with that 13-14 talk again

Ha!  Just pointing out what its showing.  I'm interested to see if the JAMSTEC later this week holds its course with a cold winter for a lot of the CONUS.

[james1976]

Several days in a row in the 90s. Im ready for Fall now lol.

[Tom]

Several days in a row in the 90s. Im ready for Fall now lol.

I've been in extended summer mode since early April when I arrived in AZ!  Heading back soon though.  Prob after this weekend sometime.

[james1976]

Had a strong tstorm about suppertime yesterday. Grass was brown so we needed it. Ended with 0.70"

[jaster220]

Another scorcher today as temps get ready to soar into the 90s once again.

 

At least you stand a better chance (once again) to get doused by evening storms that spring up along the front. Marshall looks like swing-n-a-miss 3-peat

 

Had a strong tstorm about suppertime yesterday. Grass was brown so we needed it. Ended with 0.70"

 

I'd love to get something like this nice cell I spied at lunch all the way from St. Joe that's down by S. Bend

 

 

[Tom]

This, I gotta see...an intense GL's Clipper in mid June???

 

Courtesy: Ryan Maue...(I was going to post on this when I saw the 12z Euro run coming but I was at the pool) 

 

 

[Yerf]

After a hot and humid 95, winds have turned to the east and cooled things down to 78. Really nice break

[jaster220]

This, I gotta see...an intense GL's Clipper in mid June???

 

Courtesy: Ryan Maue...(I was going to post on this when I saw the 12z Euro run coming but I was at the pool) 

 

 

It's been a year of strange wind scenarios, so this would fit the M.O.

 

Meanwhile, I lucked out here in Marshall! It dry thundered for about 40 mins, then finally let loose with enough rain to form a small puddle at the base of my driveway. Last meaningful rain was May 5th

[jaster220]

I've been in extended summer mode since early April when I arrived in AZ!  Heading back soon though.  Prob after this weekend sometime.

Gotta love this evening's hazards map, freeze warnings surrounded by excessive heat warnings!

[jaster220]

It's been a year of strange wind scenarios, so this would fit the M.O.

 

Meanwhile, I lucked out here in Marshall! It dry thundered for about 40 mins, then finally let loose with enough rain to form a small puddle at the base of my driveway. Last meaningful rain was May 5th

 

Was off on that date, was May 8th. Still, 36 days is too long. As testament to how much rain had fallen up to that point, my back yard (that gets more shade) was still green, lush, and thick when I cut it just before the rain last evening. I had let it go due to the heat over the weekend, so it was a full 8 days since I mowed. Anyways, that's pretty amazing to go that long sans decent rain with my sandy soil and still be growing so well. Actually had a second round of rain for an hour this morning just after I left for work. Drought CANCEL! Thank goodness - hate droughts

[Tom]

For 3 runs in a row, the JAMSTEC is still illustrating a cold winter for at least 2/3's of the nation.  The temp alignment seems to suggest a lot of blocking near Greenland with a NW/SE orientation to the cold pool.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2018.1jun2017.gif

 

This time, could the PAC jet be shoved farther south this season???  So Cal/4 corners signaling very wet/active.  Similar to what the CFSv2 is showing.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2018.1jun2017.gif

 

 

I like the SST configuration in the N PAC...cold pool NW of Hawaii with a ring of warmth along NW NAMER right when the LRC develops.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1jun2017.gif

[Tom]

Saw this post by a met alluding to striking similarities on the JAMSTEC's winter run comparing it to 2006-2007.  Blocking near Greenland with similar SST's in the PAC (warmer west/central PAC).

 

 

 

 

 

Edit: I think the only difference was the SST configuration in the N PAC for this upcoming winter is suggesting more cold than in 2006-2007.

[Tom]

It's interesting to note, that over the next 2 years (FWIW), the JAMSTEC is not signaling any warm ENSO event which would aid in the overall cooling of the planet as we approach the next solar minimum.

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2017.gif

 

 

By next Winter, a lot of the oceans covering the globe will have cooled off quite a bit and especially down near Antarctica.  Likely a response to the cold winter they are having now.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2018.1jun2017.gif

 

Here is a map from today showing the extent of warm waters south of the equator...and you can argue north of the equator in the N PAC...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[Hawkeye]

We just received our first rain in 18 days as a little disturbance passing through the state fired a line of storms just before reaching CR.  I picked up a nice half inch, enough to give all the plants a decent soak and fill the rain barrel.