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June 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#51
Niko

Posted 09 June 2017 - 08:39 AM

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Some clouds today, but heat is on its way! Full blown sun and warmth coming. A heatwave is looking more and more likely for lots on this forum. Turned on my sprinklers for the first time this season 2 days ago. It felt good seeing them watering my lawn. Its been awhile.       (Gotta watch that water bill though. :wacko: )


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#52
OKwx2k4

Posted 10 June 2017 - 04:37 AM

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Not weather related at all but very proud to have been a part of the group of guys that helped to create, machine, paint and build the rifles in this video.

https://m.youtube.co...h?v=oOaHbXW3HAc
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#53
Tom

Posted 10 June 2017 - 06:25 AM

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Will nature balance out the extremes this month??  From record heat this week into next week in the upper Plains/Midwest to a possible big down turn in temps Week 2-3??  It's on the table.

 

wk3.wk4_20170609.NAsfcT.gif



#54
OKwx2k4

Posted 10 June 2017 - 06:36 AM

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I may not ever see 90º this month. There's a day coming up where it could be close but I don't think it will get there.
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#55
Tom

Posted 10 June 2017 - 09:48 AM

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Official start of Summer is looking chilly on the 21st if the ensembles keep hanging on to the amplified pattern week 2. Enjoy the heat for those who like it. Pattern is gonna flip hard I think as the month rolls on. It'll be time (if my work gets done) to head home before the real torch begins out here just before Fathers Day weekend.

#56
Tom

Posted 10 June 2017 - 11:33 AM

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I have not seen any media outlets or circles talking about this but I've been diving into the Northern Hemisphere sea ice and comparing it to previous years.  If you look at the graph below, something very interesting stands out and it is rather significant if you ask me.  Notice the map below showing the global sea ice anomaly from 1979 to present day.  In 2016, there was an enormous drop in global sea ice which actually started mid 2015 as the super nino developed and the PAC ocean torched as well as others around the globe.  Pay attention to the drop in 2016 (off the charts).  It has never done this during the satellite era.  The AGW crowd would be watering at their mouths, however, what we have seen in a very short period of time is astounding.  Look at how fast the recovery has been as we closed out 2017.  It has shot out of a canon and I believe this is part of the overall reversal in the negative global sea ice trend which began in late 2012.  Many scientists believe this was the early stages of the new trend in global temps.

 

global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

 

 

Interestingly, Newfoundland has had a bad start to their fishing season as there is way to much ice to go out to sea.

 

http://globalnews.ca...starting-season

 

Look what happened in 2016 for the Arctic Basin...there is no other year you can compare to the spike in ice coverage since 1979.  Nearly every region (if not all) showed a significant spike in 2016.

 

region.mask.gif

 

region.all.anom.region.1.jpg

 

 

region.all.anom.region.12.jpg

 

 

region.all.anom.region.5.jpg

 

 

 

With the Antarctic having a very cold start to Winter and the Arctic experiencing a cooler than normal summer so far, this year is going to be rather interesting in terms of global sea ice coverage and the years moving forward.  Interesting times ahead.


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#57
iFred

Posted 10 June 2017 - 03:24 PM

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test


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#58
Niko

Posted 11 June 2017 - 09:16 AM

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Summer conditions indeed. :D



#59
Tom

Posted 12 June 2017 - 05:16 AM

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I forgot which thread we spoke about the correlation between solar minimums and volcanoes/earthquake but I'll post this video here. This guy exaggerates sometimes but overall makes good points.

https://youtu.be/z19UsP9gKzw

#60
OKwx2k4

Posted 12 June 2017 - 07:40 AM

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Little Rock is running a streak now for latest 90 since the 1930s.
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#61
NebraskaWX

Posted 12 June 2017 - 08:11 AM

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Probably overdone but it is absolutely pouring and this is from a few hours ago. We've been getting trained in LNK. Love it!!!!Attached File  Screenshot_20170612-110422.png   1.16MB   2 downloads
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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#62
Tom

Posted 12 June 2017 - 08:35 AM

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Probably overdone but it is absolutely pouring and this is from a few hours ago. We've been getting trained in LNK. Love it!!!!attachicon.gifScreenshot_20170612-110422.png

I'd love to be sitting underneath that rain shaft right now...just got out of the gym doing some fasted-cardio!



#63
Niko

Posted 13 June 2017 - 05:14 AM

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Another scorcher today as temps get ready to soar into the 90s once again.



#64
Tom

Posted 13 June 2017 - 05:38 AM

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As official summer kicks in, nature cools off those areas which have been torching...00z EPS 6-10...

 

DCMXCDLXkAAXJlJ.jpg



#65
Tom

Posted 13 June 2017 - 05:44 AM

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First time we are able to take a glance into the CFSv2's take into next Winter using the CPC's weeklies.  Here are the SST/700mb/Temp/Precip maps...

 

glbSSTSeaInd6.gif

 

 

 

 

glbz700SeaInd6.gif

 

 

usT2mSeaInd6.gif

 

usPrecSeaInd6.gif



#66
Tom

Posted 13 June 2017 - 05:49 AM

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Lately, the CFSv2 has been showing consistent runs of a possible NE PAC ridge in Oct/Nov reminiscent to the elusive "blob" we have seen nicknamed from the '13-'14 season.

 

glbz700MonInd4.gif

 

glbz700MonInd5.gif



#67
james1976

Posted 13 June 2017 - 06:58 AM

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Dont be teasing me with that 13-14 talk again 😛
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#68
Tom

Posted 13 June 2017 - 07:05 AM

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Dont be teasing me with that 13-14 talk again

Ha!  Just pointing out what its showing.  I'm interested to see if the JAMSTEC later this week holds its course with a cold winter for a lot of the CONUS.


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#69
james1976

Posted 13 June 2017 - 08:07 AM

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Several days in a row in the 90s. Im ready for Fall now lol.
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#70
Tom

Posted 13 June 2017 - 08:13 AM

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Several days in a row in the 90s. Im ready for Fall now lol.

I've been in extended summer mode since early April when I arrived in AZ!  Heading back soon though.  Prob after this weekend sometime.



#71
james1976

Posted 13 June 2017 - 10:13 AM

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Had a strong tstorm about suppertime yesterday. Grass was brown so we needed it. Ended with 0.70"
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#72
jaster220

Posted 13 June 2017 - 10:54 AM

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Another scorcher today as temps get ready to soar into the 90s once again.

 

At least you stand a better chance (once again) to get doused by evening storms that spring up along the front. Marshall looks like swing-n-a-miss 3-peat :rolleyes:

 

Had a strong tstorm about suppertime yesterday. Grass was brown so we needed it. Ended with 0.70"

 

I'd love to get something like this nice cell I spied at lunch all the way from St. Joe that's down by S. Bend

 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#73
Tom

Posted 13 June 2017 - 01:42 PM

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This, I gotta see...an intense GL's Clipper in mid June???

 

Courtesy: Ryan Maue...(I was going to post on this when I saw the 12z Euro run coming but I was at the pool) 

 

 

DCOMdxUVwAAxTk2.jpg


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#74
Yerf

Posted 13 June 2017 - 04:49 PM

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After a hot and humid 95, winds have turned to the east and cooled things down to 78. Really nice break

#75
jaster220

Posted 13 June 2017 - 05:11 PM

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This, I gotta see...an intense GL's Clipper in mid June???
 
Courtesy: Ryan Maue...(I was going to post on this when I saw the 12z Euro run coming but I was at the pool) 
 
 
DCOMdxUVwAAxTk2.jpg


It's been a year of strange wind scenarios, so this would fit the M.O.

Meanwhile, I lucked out here in Marshall! It dry thundered for about 40 mins, then finally let loose with enough rain to form a small puddle at the base of my driveway. Last meaningful rain was May 5th

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#76
jaster220

Posted 13 June 2017 - 05:15 PM

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I've been in extended summer mode since early April when I arrived in AZ!  Heading back soon though.  Prob after this weekend sometime.


Gotta love this evening's hazards map, freeze warnings surrounded by excessive heat warnings!
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#77
jaster220

Posted 14 June 2017 - 04:37 AM

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It's been a year of strange wind scenarios, so this would fit the M.O.

Meanwhile, I lucked out here in Marshall! It dry thundered for about 40 mins, then finally let loose with enough rain to form a small puddle at the base of my driveway. Last meaningful rain was May 5th

 

Was off on that date, was May 8th. Still, 36 days is too long. As testament to how much rain had fallen up to that point, my back yard (that gets more shade) was still green, lush, and thick when I cut it just before the rain last evening. I had let it go due to the heat over the weekend, so it was a full 8 days since I mowed. Anyways, that's pretty amazing to go that long sans decent rain with my sandy soil and still be growing so well. Actually had a second round of rain for an hour this morning just after I left for work. :) Drought CANCEL! Thank goodness - hate droughts


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#78
Tom

Posted 14 June 2017 - 05:32 AM

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For 3 runs in a row, the JAMSTEC is still illustrating a cold winter for at least 2/3's of the nation.  The temp alignment seems to suggest a lot of blocking near Greenland with a NW/SE orientation to the cold pool.

 

temp2.glob.DJF2018.1jun2017.gif

 

This time, could the PAC jet be shoved farther south this season???  So Cal/4 corners signaling very wet/active.  Similar to what the CFSv2 is showing.

 

tprep.glob.DJF2018.1jun2017.gif

 

 

I like the SST configuration in the N PAC...cold pool NW of Hawaii with a ring of warmth along NW NAMER right when the LRC develops.

 

ssta.glob.SON2017.1jun2017.gif


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#79
Tom

Posted 14 June 2017 - 05:49 AM

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Saw this post by a met alluding to striking similarities on the JAMSTEC's winter run comparing it to 2006-2007.  Blocking near Greenland with similar SST's in the PAC (warmer west/central PAC).

 

 

 

DCRz8xZUIAARr0p.jpg

 

 

Edit: I think the only difference was the SST configuration in the N PAC for this upcoming winter is suggesting more cold than in 2006-2007.



#80
Tom

Posted 14 June 2017 - 06:16 AM

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It's interesting to note, that over the next 2 years (FWIW), the JAMSTEC is not signaling any warm ENSO event which would aid in the overall cooling of the planet as we approach the next solar minimum.

 

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2017.gif

 

 

By next Winter, a lot of the oceans covering the globe will have cooled off quite a bit and especially down near Antarctica.  Likely a response to the cold winter they are having now.

 

ssta.glob.DJF2018.1jun2017.gif

 

Here is a map from today showing the extent of warm waters south of the equator...and you can argue north of the equator in the N PAC...

 

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png



#81
Hawkeye

Posted 14 June 2017 - 09:18 AM

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We just received our first rain in 18 days as a little disturbance passing through the state fired a line of storms just before reaching CR.  I picked up a nice half inch, enough to give all the plants a decent soak and fill the rain barrel.


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season snowfall: 10.1"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#82
Tom

Posted 14 June 2017 - 10:48 AM

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From the NWS here in PHX...I think they are having some fun with the coming Torch!

 

DCR4doGXsAIUckw.jpg



#83
OKwx2k4

Posted 14 June 2017 - 10:32 PM

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They mention June 2013 there. I'd take a year that finished out like that one did. Seems to have been a lot like that year so far already actually.
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#84
Tom

Posted 15 June 2017 - 06:08 AM

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Take this with a grain of salt, but dang...check out that ridge in the NE PAC in Sept according to the JMA!

 

Y201706.D1000_gl0.png



#85
Tom

Posted 15 June 2017 - 06:21 AM

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JMA is certainly signaling a much wetter and active pattern to close out the month and into early June.  With the blossoming anticyclone in the west, NW Flow will be the theme over the next few weeks.

 

 

Who would like to go to Antarctica for the Winter???  That looks ugly for the heart of Winter down in the south Pole.  I'm going to be very curious to see what the ice/snow anomalies will look like after their winter.

 

 

DCXNQZ3U0AE_nlo.jpg



#86
westMJim

Posted 15 June 2017 - 08:43 AM

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As is many times the case in the summer time last nights rain fall amounts varied widely around the area. While Otsego to the SW received 1.74” here in the GR area it was much less with the airport reporting 0.26” and here at my house I only recorded 0.13. 

Grand Rapids now has recorded 4 days in a row of 90° days or better. The last time this happened in June was in June of 1994. That string was very similar to this years string, This year GR started out with a high of 89 on the 10th and then had highs of 91, 93, 91, and 91. In 1994 GR had a high of 89 on the 14th and then highs of 92,94,95, and 96. It should be noted that the rest of the summer of 1994 was cooler than average with August coming in at a very cool mean of 66.6° (-4.2°) so just because its warm now does not mean it will stay warm all summer.


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#87
GDR

Posted 15 June 2017 - 11:05 AM

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#88
Tom

Posted 15 June 2017 - 12:47 PM

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Quite the thermal battle zone setting up across the central CONUS.  Remind you of this past winter???

 

610temp.new.gif

 

 

 

814temp.new.gif



#89
Tom

Posted 15 June 2017 - 12:49 PM

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CPC's take on July...looks like a warmer and drier regime may be in play...

 

off14_temp.gif

 

 

 

off14_prcp.gif

 

 

 

On another note, I hope the beneficial rains come over the next couple weeks.  The latest drought monitor showing some dryness popping up in the Midwest, ironically, where it has been the wettest during the Spring!

 

current_usdm.png


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#90
Tom

Posted 15 June 2017 - 04:12 PM

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I've never experienced 120F+ heat in the desert.  With that being said, hoping we crush some records here early next week Mon-Tue and surpass 118F.  Some models suggesting 121F!  I'm going to cook some breakfast on the black top.


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#91
bud2380

Posted 15 June 2017 - 04:39 PM

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Severe storms popped up out of nowhere in eastern Iowa. Hopefully i can cash in on some of that action.

#92
Hawkeye

Posted 15 June 2017 - 04:45 PM

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Severe storms popped up out of nowhere in eastern Iowa. Hopefully i can cash in on some of that action.

 

Waterloo/Cedar Falls are getting hammered with large hail.

 

So far storms have fired in ne and sw Iowa, but nothing in between.


season snowfall: 10.1"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#93
Hawkeye

Posted 15 June 2017 - 06:31 PM

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The severe stuff bypassed me.  One cell popped up just west and had hail, but it weakened as it moved over me, just dropped a couple tenths of an inch of rain.  I did get wind gusts to 40 mph again from the storms passing north.


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season snowfall: 10.1"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#94
bud2380

Posted 15 June 2017 - 06:34 PM

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Despite very strong radar returns we literally got a few drops of rain here. Not sure how it all missed me. Radar showed it going right over top but nada.

#95
Tom

Posted 16 June 2017 - 08:00 AM

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S MI may get drenched if training storms do in fact develop...

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_16.png



#96
jaster220

Posted 16 June 2017 - 08:06 AM

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S MI may get drenched if training storms do in fact develop...

 

:rolleyes: Yikes! Here we go again with wet basements if that plays out. No thanks.. :(       Dude, this forum is so busy for the time of year compared to most, kudos


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#97
Niko

Posted 16 June 2017 - 12:39 PM

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No action in my neck of the woods, in terms of severe weather. :wacko: :rolleyes:



#98
Hawkeye

Posted 16 June 2017 - 10:26 PM

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I picked up a real nice 0.80" from the line of storms that moved through tonight.


season snowfall: 10.1"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#99
bud2380

Posted 17 June 2017 - 03:58 AM

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I picked up right at an inch last night. I was surprised, it hadn't rained at all through 11pm when I went to bed. That puts me around 1.5" for the week. Need to double that.
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#100
Tom

Posted 17 June 2017 - 05:41 AM

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As we head towards the start of official summer, both the GFS/EURO developing a strong summer time vortex over the Pole Day 8-10.  In fact, today it begins its slow spin towards the Pole.

 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_2.png

 

Day 8...

 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_9.png

 

Day 10...

 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

 

 

Arctic temps have been below normal for the most part since late April.  Of late, they have reached normal and now hovering near freezing.  It'll be interesting to see how they respond when the vortex becomes established.

 

meanT_2017.png