June 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

From the NWS here in PHX...I think they are having some fun with the coming Torch!

 

[OKwx2k4]

They mention June 2013 there. I'd take a year that finished out like that one did. Seems to have been a lot like that year so far already actually.

[Tom]

Take this with a grain of salt, but dang...check out that ridge in the NE PAC in Sept according to the JMA!

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201706.D1000_gl0.png

[Tom]

JMA is certainly signaling a much wetter and active pattern to close out the month and into early June.  With the blossoming anticyclone in the west, NW Flow will be the theme over the next few weeks.

 

 

Who would like to go to Antarctica for the Winter???  That looks ugly for the heart of Winter down in the south Pole.  I'm going to be very curious to see what the ice/snow anomalies will look like after their winter.

 

 

[westMJim]

As is many times the case in the summer time last nights rain fall amounts varied widely around the area. While Otsego to the SW received 1.74” here in the GR area it was much less with the airport reporting 0.26” and here at my house I only recorded 0.13. 

Grand Rapids now has recorded 4 days in a row of 90° days or better. The last time this happened in June was in June of 1994. That string was very similar to this years string, This year GR started out with a high of 89 on the 10th and then had highs of 91, 93, 91, and 91. In 1994 GR had a high of 89 on the 14th and then highs of 92,94,95, and 96. It should be noted that the rest of the summer of 1994 was cooler than average with August coming in at a very cool mean of 66.6° (-4.2°) so just because its warm now does not mean it will stay warm all summer.

[GDR]

[Tom]

Quite the thermal battle zone setting up across the central CONUS.  Remind you of this past winter???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Tom]

CPC's take on July...looks like a warmer and drier regime may be in play...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_temp.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_prcp.gif

 

 

 

On another note, I hope the beneficial rains come over the next couple weeks.  The latest drought monitor showing some dryness popping up in the Midwest, ironically, where it has been the wettest during the Spring!

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_usdm.png

[Tom]

I've never experienced 120F+ heat in the desert.  With that being said, hoping we crush some records here early next week Mon-Tue and surpass 118F.  Some models suggesting 121F!  I'm going to cook some breakfast on the black top.

[bud2380]

Severe storms popped up out of nowhere in eastern Iowa. Hopefully i can cash in on some of that action.

[Hawkeye]

Severe storms popped up out of nowhere in eastern Iowa. Hopefully i can cash in on some of that action.

 

Waterloo/Cedar Falls are getting hammered with large hail.

 

So far storms have fired in ne and sw Iowa, but nothing in between.

[Hawkeye]

The severe stuff bypassed me.  One cell popped up just west and had hail, but it weakened as it moved over me, just dropped a couple tenths of an inch of rain.  I did get wind gusts to 40 mph again from the storms passing north.

[bud2380]

Despite very strong radar returns we literally got a few drops of rain here. Not sure how it all missed me. Radar showed it going right over top but nada.

[Tom]

S MI may get drenched if training storms do in fact develop...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017061612/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_16.png

[jaster220]

 

S MI may get drenched if training storms do in fact develop...

 

Yikes! Here we go again with wet basements if that plays out. No thanks..        Dude, this forum is so busy for the time of year compared to most, kudos

[Niko]

No action in my neck of the woods, in terms of severe weather.

[Hawkeye]

I picked up a real nice 0.80" from the line of storms that moved through tonight.

[bud2380]

I picked up right at an inch last night. I was surprised, it hadn't rained at all through 11pm when I went to bed. That puts me around 1.5" for the week. Need to double that.

[Tom]

As we head towards the start of official summer, both the GFS/EURO developing a strong summer time vortex over the Pole Day 8-10.  In fact, today it begins its slow spin towards the Pole.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061700/ecmwf_z500a_nhem_2.png

 

Day 8...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061700/ecmwf_z500a_nhem_9.png

 

Day 10...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061700/ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

 

 

Arctic temps have been below normal for the most part since late April.  Of late, they have reached normal and now hovering near freezing.  It'll be interesting to see how they respond when the vortex becomes established.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

[Hawkeye]

I picked up right at an inch last night. I was surprised, it hadn't rained at all through 11pm when I went to bed. That puts me around 1.5" for the week. Need to double that.

 

It's good we cashed in last night.  Models have removed today's big event.

 

Next Thursday is the next solid chance of rain.

[Tom]

Big time flip being advertised Day 5-10 on the EPS as GEFS are playing catch up.  Looks like North America fills up with a lot of cold air for the time of year.  EPS getting colder each day.  Arctic cools off big time.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017061712/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_7.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017061712/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017061712/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

[Niko]

Hazy warm and humid would describe the weather today here in SEMI perfectly. Although, skies have been mostly cloudy for the most part, some sunshine does try and peek out from time to time. Temps are in the 80s.

[Tom]

Happy Father's Day!  Thankfully, the severe wx threat has settled down for a lot of the members so that everyone can enjoy a splendid day with the fam.  Have a good one!

[Tom]

Hope everyone had a relaxing Father's Day weekend.  Who's ready for some relief from the heat???  I would love to see some cooler weather out here.  00z EPS 6-10 Day temp forecast showing a huge area of cooler wx east of the Rockies.

 

 

 

Week 2 temp trends...

 

[Tom]

In other news, folks visiting Yellowstone Nat'l Park may feel the ground shake a bit from what has been a recent earthquake swarm which is normal.  Last weeks 4.5 magnitude quake was the most meaningful one that had people feeling un-easy.

 

http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/yellowstone_national_park/scientists-tracking-earthquake-swarm-in-northern-yellowstone-park/article_6643afcf-6dbe-5f18-ba2b-2b839d8e3f5f.html

[Tom]

Already up to a torchy 100F at 10:13am! How high can she go?

[jaster220]

Already up to a torchy 100F at 10:13am! How high can she go?

 

But it's a dry heat, lol    Enjoy your Swedish Sauna

[Niko]

My lows tomorrow night have a chance to be in the upper 40s. Now, that is a sharp cooldown.

[Niko]

But it's a dry heat, lol    Enjoy your Swedish Sauna

Absolutely, dry heat can be more tolerable than hot, humid, steamy heat. In Greece, whenever I am there, I have experienced temps of 110F+, while it can be 95F in the shade. Desert-like weather indeed. From time to time, a pop-up thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, although, it is a mainly sunny and hot, dry summer (90% of all 3 or 4 months into the early parts of Autumn).

The islands are much cooler. I usually go to Andros Island, which is located NE of Athens. I take the fairy from Athens dock area and it usually takes around 1 hour and 45 minutes to arrive. The boat ride is sweet.

[Tom]

But it's a dry heat, lol Enjoy your Swedish Sauna

True, but it feels like a blow drier blowing hot air in your face or when you open an oven door! Lol

 

I left the gym earlier and sat on the patio deck eating some soup and it felt like I was in a sauna sweating profusely.

[jaster220]

True, but it feels like a blow drier blowing hot air in your face or when you open an oven door! Lol

I left the gym earlier and sat on the patio deck eating some soup and it felt like I was in a sauna sweating profusely.

NPR chose to report on the heatwave from Death Valley where the woman ranger said 125+F they will see most years, though July & August is more typically when. It's a couple weeks early this year she said. 110 is my personal hottest, though 1988s 104/113 with heat index in MI felt worse!

[Tom]

NPR chose to report on the heatwave from Death Valley where the woman ranger said 125+F they will see most years, though July & August is more typically when. It's a couple weeks early this year she said. 110 is my personal hottest, though 1988s 104/113 with heat index in MI felt worse!

Tied a record high of 118F today. Supposed to hit 120F tomorrow and 119F on Wed. We would crush the old record tomorrow which is 116F.

[WBadgersW]

Tied a record high of 118F today. Supposed to hit 120F tomorrow and 119F on Wed. We would crush the old record tomorrow which is 116F.

What city are you in Tom?

[Tom]

What city are you in Tom?

I'm in the PHX area. The valley of the sun!

[Minny_Weather]

And here I am in Texas currently with a possible tropical storm coming my way! I'll update you guys on what I get. More likely than not it'll just be a soaker.

[VMB443]

Interesting to see how after those hot and humid days of last week it looks like the low to mid-70s (with the exception of Thursday/Friday) for the time being - not that I'm complaining - but it will be interesting to see if these cooler days are what we have all summer.

[Tom]

Along with the JMA, the CFSv2 is suggesting a cold Antarctic next month.  Of note, Greenland might not have much of a melt season.

 

 

 

 

Saw this tweet by a met and he's comparing this pattern to July '13...pretty darn similar in the Antarctic/Archipelago/Bearing Sea/AK/Russia/Europe/S PAC

 

[Tom]

High Rez NAM showing a direct hit for Houston...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017062012/nam3km_mslp_wind_scus_43.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017062012/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_42.png

[jaster220]

High Rez NAM showing a direct hit for Houston...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017062012/nam3km_mslp_wind_scus_43.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017062012/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_42.png

 

Quite a bit west of others that are calling for a Louisiana hit. Love how tightly those get wrapped. Ofc, it's no 'cane, but still looks impressive on a surf map, lol

[Tom]

12z GFS flashing upper 50's/60's for high temps over the weekend near the Lakes and parts of the Plains in there is enough cloud cover/precip...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062012/gfs_T2m_ncus_18.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062012/gfs_T2m_ncus_22.png