Jump to content

June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Recommended Posts

Retrogressive NPAC wave dispersion regime develops during the third week of June following the jet extension/AAM peak.

 

So after ~ a week of troughing, the jet retracts and the subtropical anticyclone attempts to extend poleward. During the retrogression process, it may either provide for a few days of ridging during the third week of June, or it could remain offshore and keep the PNW on the cooler side of average. Eventually the anticyclone will set up shop around the Aleutians/western GOA again.

 

This also marks the end of the generally troughy pattern across the central US, which will be replaced by a stronger anticyclonic regimen and much hotter weather.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS still goes with a classically niña-like convective state for the middle of June and perhaps beyond. Indonesian convection, central Pacific subsidence, and enhanced Atlantic convection as well.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2017060312&fh=-60&xpos=0&ypos=339

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Retrogressive NPAC wave dispersion regime develops during the third week of June following the jet extension/AAM peak.

 

So after ~ a week of troughing, the jet retracts and the subtropical anticyclone attempts to extend poleward. During the retrogression process, it may either provide for a few days of ridging during the third week of June, or it could remain offshore and keep the PNW on the cooler side of average. Eventually the anticyclone will set up shop around the Aleutians/western GOA again.

 

This also marks the end of the generally troughy pattern across the central US, which will be replaced by a stronger anticyclonic regimen and much hotter weather.

Hints of this progression showing up on the CFS weeklies.

 

Note the retraction of the jet during week two and the building anticyclone, following by a flattening of the isobars as the anticyclone slides westward underneath the trough, relocating offshore:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=nhem&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2017060306&fh=174&xpos=0&ypos=529

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lol GooFuS

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/58F7E3C4-4674-44FB-9DE0-8CC286C092E2_zpswn4bpfw6.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is Tim dead?

 

Ha!   Just checked in and this is what I see.

 

I am just following Phil... he basically tells us what will happen weeks in advance and is almost always right with the big picture.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ha! Just checked in and this is what I see.

 

I am just following Phil... he basically tells us what will happen weeks in advance and is almost always right with the big picture.

Haha, I was almost worried there for a second. My silly forecasts are meaningless if nobody is here to read them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like last month ended up being another dryish month for Victoria-proper, though it would seem I missed the first Thunderstorm here in several years. However, I did end up getting my rain fix in Thailand and Taiwan; rained almost every single day in Thailand with thunderstorms dumping as much as 5" within a couple hours. A typical developing afternoon thunderstorm in the tropical convergence zone:

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_4278_zpsc38efelv.jpg

 

Then during my short stop in Taipei I got caught in what was apparently the heaviest rains in 21 years as remnants from a cyclone merged with a stationary front. I can easily say that's the heaviest rain I've ever seen in my life, the roads/sidewalks turned to rivers, with between 12~24" falling in under 12 hours. They must have an incredible drainage system because by late afternoon when the rain tapered off a bit the city generally looked like this:

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_4474_zpsygbjp9oe.jpg

 

Can't imagine what places like Seattle or Vancouver would look like if we ever saw that sort of rain.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like last month ended up being another dryish month for Victoria-proper, though it would seem I missed the first Thunderstorm here in several years. However, I did end up getting my rain fix in Thailand and Taiwan; rained almost every single day in Thailand with thunderstorms dumping as much as 5" within a couple hours. A typical developing afternoon thunderstorm in the tropical convergence zone:

 

Then during my short stop in Taipei I got caught in what was apparently the heaviest rains in 21 years as remnants from a cyclone merged with a stationary front. I can easily say that's the heaviest rain I've ever seen in my life, the roads/sidewalks turned to rivers, with between 12~24" falling in under 12 hours. They must have an incredible drainage system because by late afternoon when the rain tapered off a bit the city generally looked like this:

 

Can't imagine what places like Seattle or Vancouver would look like if we ever saw that sort of rain.

 

Yes... people from the PNW typically travel to other locations primarily to see rain.  Glad you got your fix! 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yesterday was a bonus day. 59/46 with 0.03" of rain

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought he had a pretty interesting post. No need to be a douchebag.

 

It was interesting.   My snarky response was in context of the last couple months of discussion here.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models still playing catching up with reality.

 

Everything is shown to move faster as the time approaches.

I've noticed this too. Almost the opposite of last year where everything was slow relative to reality.

 

Model scores are still tanking, too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

West coast SSTAs are gonna plummet with the upcoming pattern. Both for reasons of temperature and wind stress.

 

Not that it matters in terms of pattern progression. But some here theorize they have local effects, so maybe it's worth watching.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

West coast SSTAs are gonna plummet with the upcoming pattern. Both for reasons of temperature and wind stress.

 

Not that it matters in terms of pattern progression. But some here theorize they have local effects, so maybe it's worth watching.

Already more marine layer days this year than any year since 2012.

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest happ

West coast SSTAs are gonna plummet with the upcoming pattern. Both for reasons of temperature and wind stress.

 

Not that it matters in terms of pattern progression. But some here theorize they have local effects, so maybe it's worth watching.

 

Some of the coldest SST along the West coast occur north of San Francisco; Bodega Bay: 49F due to upwelling.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes... people from the PNW typically travel to other locations primarily to see rain.  Glad you got your fix! 

 

Interesting fact, people over there are just as likely to carry an umbrella to shelter themselves from the sun as they are to carry one for the rain. And you see more people out and about on cloudy/rainy afternoons than sunny ones.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting fact, people over there are just as likely to carry an umbrella to shelter themselves from the sun as they are to carry one for the rain. And you see more people out and about on cloudy/rainy afternoons than sunny ones.

Bazinga.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some of the coldest SST along the West coast occur north of San Francisco; Bodega Bay: 49F due to upwelling.

Interesting, I didn't know that. That sea breeze must feel magestic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Phil. Do you really enjoy beating the drum of a cool summer out west because you like it cool and cloudy in the summer or do you just want your forecast to be right?

I don't think I'm "beating a drum", but if I were, it would be for the latter reason.

 

Personally I wouldn't mind being wrong if it means a troughy eastern summer. Albeit that seems impossible these days so it's mostly a pipe dream.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Plus I felt screwed last summer after persistent troughing in the upper levels mostly failed to translate to the surface. So maybe I am pushing it a bit harder this year.

 

My forecast for a troughy June/July (at least) is definitely backed by reason, though. It's not like I'm wishcasting it and hoping to be right. That's a recipe for a lot of busts.

 

I've looked at the global progression(s) and have analoged it to the best of my ability. If I'm wrong, I'll learn from it. This is a very difficult summer pattern to forecast accurately, so I will screw up from time to time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a bit perplexed/worried in late May when the models kept pumping that ridge.

 

My analogs and limited knowledge of the climate system kept telling me to expect a troughy June in the west, but the models wouldn't budge, so I started to doubt my data a bit. Thankfully they caught on last minute or I would have been scratching my head for awhile afterwards, haha.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Phil. Do you really enjoy beating the drum of a cool summer out west because you like it cool and cloudy in the summer or do you just want your forecast to be right?

He doesn't even live here, so that doesn't make any sense.

 

I'm hoping his forecast is right though. We've had five consecutive warmer than average summers in the western lowlands, some approaching record warmth. Variety is good.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think I'm "beating a drum", but if I were, it would be for the latter reason.

 

Personally I wouldn't mind being wrong if it means a troughy eastern summer. Albeit that seems impossible these days so it's mostly a pipe dream.

I like your energy. You do good work.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good chance I beat my personal latest first t'storm which was 06/05/2011 here since I moved to town. 

 

I was pretty close to a storm yesterday. Just within an inch...

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You didn't see anything on 5/4?

 

Nope. I saw flashes late on May 4th to my NW but too far away to hear rumbles. That was a widespread event but mostly they climbed the cascades and Rogue Valley had a few storms.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lightning map on May 4th.

 

http://i.imgur.com/aPFbUUU.jpg

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good chance I beat my personal latest first t'storm which was 06/05/2011 here since I moved to town.

 

I was pretty close to a storm yesterday. Just within an inch...

Speaking of 2011, check out the similarities w/ regards to the seasonal scale tropical forcings. Everything just a tad bit west-shifted so far this year.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/895757F2-3A62-478F-8F6C-F6B4F30B89BD_zpsjmxlvr97.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/02675F94-BCE8-497A-9E07-235C5D48D5B1_zpsqlrycgoh.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...