June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

I am sensing a hot September.

I could see either August or September running warmer than average depending on how fast the QBO/tropics cycle. Right now the QBO is pacing much faster vs 2011.

[Timmy Supercell]

I could see either August or September running warmer than average depending on how fast the QBO/tropics cycle. Right now the QBO is pacing much faster vs 2011.

 

If I recall in 2011 locally, August and September were the warmest of the J/A/S period.

[BLI snowman]

I could see either August or September running warmer than average depending on how fast the QBO/tropics cycle. Right now the QBO is pacing much faster vs 2011.

A warm August is a foregone conclusion here now.

[Phil]

A warm August is a foregone conclusion here now.

Yeah, I think if it's gonna happen, August will be the month.

 

Then again, this year has been super fluky, so maybe this is the summer of payback for 2013/14/15.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

Just got an alert on my phone... brush fire has closed I-90 near Vantage.   This disastrous drought has taken an ugly turn now.  

[Front Ranger]

He doesn't even live here, so that doesn't make any sense.

 

I'm hoping his forecast is right though. We've had five consecutive warmer than average summers in the western lowlands, some approaching record warmth. Variety is good.

 

Four, actually. 2012 was below normal in the western lowlands.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice 65/45 day. Already down to 47.

[Jesse]

Four, actually. 2012 was below normal in the western lowlands.

 

 

Nice.

 

How many places ended up with a top 10 warm May last month?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 37 this morning.

[Tyler Mode]

39 for a low this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Four, actually. 2012 was below normal in the western lowlands.

 

JJA12TDeptWRCC-NW.png

June and July largely followed the 2011 script. Busted out with a 102 at SLE on August 4th though.

[Front Ranger]

Nice.

 

How many places ended up with a top 10 warm May last month?

 

None that I know of. That cooldown at the end of the month saved the day. I think most spots ended up in the +1.5 to +2 range. Still warm, but not as warm recent Mays.

 

June running similar anomalies so far.

[Front Ranger]

June and July largely followed the 2012 script. Busted out with a 102 at SLE on August 4th though.

 

Yeah, August kept 2012 from being a very cool summer.

[Jesse]

None that I know of. That cooldown at the end of the month saved the day. I think most spots ended up in the +1.5 to +2 range. Still warm, but not as warm recent Mays.

 

June running similar anomalies so far.

Yeah, definitely not your best stretch for good calls. Live and learn.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, definitely not your best stretch for good calls. Live and learn.

 

Ok...all I said was that SEA might have a chance at a top 10 May. Had the warmth continued through the end of the month, as some models suggested, they probably would have. It was a warm May, so I didn't blow that call.

 

Lashing out because I corrected a statement you made does not demonstrate much improvement in the butt hurt department.

[Jesse]

 

Ok...all I said was that SEA might have a chance at a top 10 May. Had the warmth continued through the end of the month, as some models suggested, they probably would have. It was a warm May, so I didn't blow that call.

 

Lashing out because I corrected a statement you made does not demonstrate much improvement in the butt hurt department.

Lashing out? I've been meaning to ask you about that for awhile. Also, you were saying that many places would likely see a top 10 warm May, not just SEA.

[Phil]

Just when I thought it couldn't get worse (not updated for the latest 00z/12z cycles but they're both atrocious). Even the ECMWF took a dive.

 

The GFS though..good lord.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/54AAD5B8-4974-4310-B5FD-7F645980C485_zpswdpj5xgz.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Our major trough later this week is really racing through on the 12Z ECMWF.   Basically gone by Sunday morning.   Earlier runs had it lingering for almost a week.   

 

Models just continue to be too slow and are playing catch up.  

[Phil]

Our major trough later this week is really racing through on the 12Z ECMWF. Basically gone by Sunday morning. Earlier runs had it lingering for almost a week.

 

Models just continue to be too slow and are playing catch up.

There will be another one, though. Then another..and another.

 

Under a NPAC wave dispersion/frictional torque pattern, you get "spokes" (of ridging) along each wave axis. Models are absolutely atrocious with this sort of thing..slight bumps can change the timing of everything.

 

I still think the increased separation during the middle of June could provide for a few ~ 3 day breaks in between rounds of troughing, but the background state should be troughy.

[TT-SEA]

There will be another one, though. Then another..and another.

 

Under a NPAC wave dispersion/frictional torque pattern, you get "spokes" (of ridging) along each wave axis. Models are absolutely atrocious with this sort of thing..slight bumps can change the timing of everything.

 

I still think the increased separation during the middle of June could provide for a few ~ 3 day breaks in between rounds of troughing, but the background state should be troughy.

 

Yes... there will be ridges and troughs forever.   

[Phil]

The most prolific model bias in this type of pattern is for the modeling to slow down and dig the waves too deep offshore/over the NPAC, and try to phase with the STJ or an upstream wave which over-deepens the Aleutian trough. Like the whacky 00z GFS last night (and to some extent the 12z GFS/ECMWF runs today).

[Phil]

Actually yeah, today's 12z ECMWF is a good example of this bias in action, though not quite as extreme as the 00z GFS last night (which was comical).

[Jesse]

Euro definitely looks pretty lost after day 7 or so.

 

Meanwhile. Beautiful day today. Lows in the 30s and 40s this morning and now heading for upper 70s with dry air and sunshine. Perfect.

[ShawniganLake]

There will be another one, though. Then another..and another.

 

Under a NPAC wave dispersion/frictional torque pattern, you get "spokes" (of ridging) along each wave axis. Models are absolutely atrocious with this sort of thing..slight bumps can change the timing of everything.

 

I still think the increased separation during the middle of June could provide for a few ~ 3 day breaks in between rounds of troughing, but the background state should be troughy.

Sounds like what I remember being more common for a June type weather pattern.

[Jesse]

Euro ensemble mean looks much troughier than the operational days 7-10, FWIW.

[Phil]

Euro ensemble mean looks much troughier than the operational days 7-10, FWIW.

Yeah, that's putting it lightly.

 

There should be some separation between troughs there that's not captured by the ensemble mean, but nothing like the 12z ECMWF depicts. Always watch for that stubborn bias to slow/dig those waves offshore, which often leads to downstream ridges popping up over the west.

 

During the third week of June, the separation between waves will grow before the initiation of a retrogression, so there will likely be a "ridge spoke" in there somewhere that could last 3-4 days.

[Front Ranger]

Yes... there will be ridges and troughs forever.   

 

Looks like the first half of June will be pretty typical for first halfs of June, perhaps a bit on the warmish side.

[Phil]

Looks like the first half of June will be pretty typical for first halfs of June, perhaps a bit on the warmish side.

Sure..

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/53B3FE2E-9681-4979-995F-996059C7B828_zpsrxgja761.pnghttp://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/92C6A599-99F8-4206-802F-EFAB92711F1E_zpspnfqrqm8.png

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DFABF92F-BF9D-4EC5-B1B1-6F629C3D4936_zpsm3biszgz.png

[Phil]

Warmish pattern:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/8BACAC80-364D-4D50-9759-0151980F86BE_zpsztq57kiz.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/193A1EE3-1697-47BC-AA7C-DC97C078809A_zpsi9k5zycu.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/397C3420-F06A-403B-B214-24852C1DFC58_zpsuus0tjf7.png

[Front Ranger]

Sure..

 

Most places will be +3 to +4 for the month by 6/8. Looks cool for a bit after that, maybe enough to get some places near average by 6/12. After that, hard to say. 

[Phil]

Most places will be +3 to +4 for the month by 6/8. Looks cool for a bit after that, maybe enough to get some places near average by 6/12. After that, hard to say.

So you're going warm again after 6/12? Interesting call.

 

Verbatim, the 12z EPS mean has most of the region below average for the month by the 14th, with a big retrogression/jet extension in the pipeline for later in the month.

[Front Ranger]

Lashing out? I've been meaning to ask you about that for awhile. Also, you were saying that many places would likely see a top 10 warm May, not just SEA.

 

Not what I said. I said many places would likely be in the running for warmest second half of May on record. That part would be harder to check, but it was certainly very warm.

[Front Ranger]

So you're going warm again after 6/12? Interesting call.

 

"Hard to say" = warm? 

[Jesse]

Not what I said. I said many places would likely be in the running for warmest second half of May on record. That part would be harder to check, but it was certainly very warm.

Top 10 warm May for SEA (and probably other places) definitely on the table.

[Phil]

"Hard to say" = warm?

You said the first half of June looks "warmish", right?

[Jesse]

You said the first half of June looks "warmish", right?

Seems like he's having an off day.

[Front Ranger]

Lashing out? I've been meaning to ask you about that for awhile. Also, you were saying that many places would likely see a top 10 warm May, not just SEA.

 

 

Top 10 warm May for SEA (and probably other places) definitely on the table.

 

Yeah, not the same.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like the first half of June will be pretty typical for first halfs of June, perhaps a bit on the warmish side.

 

 

Most places will be +3 to +4 for the month by 6/8. Looks cool for a bit after that, maybe enough to get some places near average by 6/12. After that, hard to say. 

 

 

You said the first half of June looks "warmish", right?

[Phil]

Not jumping into this rabbit hole. Have a nice afternoon.