June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Too hot? I will ask my cousin for the forecast on the day I'm planning to mow the lawn, and get angry if it's anything less than 97 DP 85.

 

Cool beans.

 

We don't have to mow the lawn at the lake in MN.

 

There will be some good lawn mowing days this week here.

[wx_statman]

I imagine there are only a handful of years at most that have seen their warmest temperature of the year in September. And it's likely those happened in the first ten days of the month. I don't think it's ever happened in October.

 

 

This seems like a project for Statman (maybe he's already done it), but doing a quick look at years with late September heat it seems like 1974 has the latest warmest day on record for PDX. Hit 96 on 9/24. An anti-Jesse late summer/early fall if I've ever seen one.

 

Bellingham 2N managed 83 on 10/10/1936, for an annual maximum. North Head also pulled this off on the previous day, hitting 87 on 10/9 for their annual max. Its exceedingly rare to have that happen, to say the least!

 

A general rule of thumb is that you need to be on the coast for October annual maximums to be a possibility. There's a S-N gradient, where annual maximums can occur as late as the last week of October on the southern OR coast (i.e. 97 in Coquillle and 93 in Brookings on 10/26/2003), and as late as mid-October on the southern WA coast (i.e. 90 at Long Beach on 10/11/1991).

 

Late Sep 1974 is definitely a good example for the valley. Tremendous late season heatwave coming after a summer that didn't feature any major heat events. That one managed to set annual maximums for the year as far north as Forks (95 on 9/24, which is an impressive reading for them at any time of year). Downslope locations really roasted, i.e. 100 in Packwood and 99 in Molalla. Both of those were maximums for that year as well. 

 

Both 1952 and 1974 brought upper 80's to Whatcom county around the Equinox. Pretty similar events there and in both cases those were the highest temps for the year. 

[TT-SEA]

Bellingham 2N managed 83 on 10/10/1936, for an annual maximum. North Head also pulled this off on the previous day, hitting 87 on 10/9 for their annual max. Its exceedingly rare to have that happen, to say the least!

 

A general rule of thumb is that you need to be on the coast for October annual maximums to be a possibility. There's a S-N gradient, where annual maximums can occur as late as the last week of October on the southern OR coast (i.e. 97 in Coquillle and 93 in Brookings on 10/26/2003), and as late as mid-October on the southern WA coast (i.e. 90 at Long Beach on 10/11/1991).

 

Late Sep 1974 is definitely a good example for the valley. Tremendous late season heatwave coming after a summer that didn't feature any major heat events. That one managed to set annual maximums for the year as far north as Forks (95 on 9/24, which is an impressive reading for them at any time of year). Downslope locations really roasted, i.e. 100 in Packwood and 99 in Molalla. Both of those were maximums for that year as well. 

 

Both 1952 and 1974 brought upper 80's to Whatcom county around the Equinox. Pretty similar events there and in both cases those were the highest temps for the year. 

 

How did you find Bellingham 2N so fast?   Did you just know that one?  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is much warmer than its 00Z run for the second half of the work week... despite the 500mb pattern looking very similar.

 

Example... 00Z run had 68 at PDX on Thursday and the 12Z run has 80.  

[wx_statman]

How did you find Bellingham 2N so fast?   Did you just know that one?  

 

I'm sort of like the horse whisperer, but for PNW weather stats. 

 

I just know where to look. 

[TT-SEA]

I'm sort of like the horse whisperer, but for PNW weather stats. 

 

I just know where to look. 

 

Ahhh... coax those stats out.  

[Jesse]

Bellingham 2N managed 83 on 10/10/1936, for an annual maximum. North Head also pulled this off on the previous day, hitting 87 on 10/9 for their annual max. Its exceedingly rare to have that happen, to say the least!

 

A general rule of thumb is that you need to be on the coast for October annual maximums to be a possibility. There's a S-N gradient, where annual maximums can occur as late as the last week of October on the southern OR coast (i.e. 97 in Coquillle and 93 in Brookings on 10/26/2003), and as late as mid-October on the southern WA coast (i.e. 90 at Long Beach on 10/11/1991).

 

Late Sep 1974 is definitely a good example for the valley. Tremendous late season heatwave coming after a summer that didn't feature any major heat events. That one managed to set annual maximums for the year as far north as Forks (95 on 9/24, which is an impressive reading for them at any time of year). Downslope locations really roasted, i.e. 100 in Packwood and 99 in Molalla. Both of those were maximums for that year as well.

 

Both 1952 and 1974 brought upper 80's to Whatcom county around the Equinox. Pretty similar events there and in both cases those were the highest temps for the year.

Fascinating. Thank you.

[Jesse]

Pretty strong east winds kicked up out here. Within the last half hour.

[TT-SEA]

Then the 12Z ECMWF is much cooler for next weekend.

 

And shows rain on Saturday.

[Jesse]

Then the 12Z ECMWF is much cooler for next weekend.

 

And shows rain on Saturday.

Any east winds surfacing at your place?

[wx_statman]

Ahhh... coax those stats out.  

 

It's what I do. 

 

In all seriousness, I just sort of know what years had major late season heat waves regionally, and which of those years didn't have major heat waves during the summer itself. That allows me to quickly focus in on years such as 1936. Then all I had to do was check the WA annual climo publication for 1936 to see if any maximums were set in October:

 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-BCEEAEF7-EA83-46E3-A484-48959307987E.pdf

 

"Bellingham (near)" is Bellingham 2N, following the naming convention of those days. Shows up under Bellingham 2N in the WRCC database as a cross-reference.

[Jesse]

It's what I do.

 

In all seriousness, I just sort of know what years had major late season heat waves regionally, and which of those years didn't have major heat waves during the summer itself. That allows me to quickly focus in on years such as 1936. Then all I had to do was check the WA annual climo publication for 1936 to see if any maximums were set in October:

 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-BCEEAEF7-EA83-46E3-A484-48959307987E.pdf

 

"Bellingham (near)" is Bellingham 2N, following the naming convention of those days. Shows up under Bellingham 2N in the WRCC database as a cross-reference.

The 30s were such a variable decade. A year earlier some locations in the western lowlands were seeing snow on Halloween.

[TT-SEA]

Any east winds surfacing at your place?

 

Does not seem like it... but it might be a NE breeze.   

 

Its 84 here now.

[wx_statman]

The 30s were such a variable decade. A year earlier some locations in the western lowlands were seeing snow on Halloween.

 

Would have been a fun decade to track weather stats!

[TT-SEA]

About what I expect for the 4th of July on the 12Z ECMWF...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017062412/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

[wx_statman]

Any east winds surfacing at your place?

 

I'm getting E winds now in the Hollywood District. I usually get them pretty quickly after TTD, and before PDX sees them.

[wx_statman]

Redding already 105 at noon. 

 

+4 over Monday, when they hit 113. Could make a run at the 117 monthly record from 2006. 

[Front Ranger]

About what I expect for the 4th of July on the 12Z ECMWF...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017062412/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

The 4th of July has been a total washout in recent years...always.

[TT-SEA]

The 4th of July has been a total washout in recent years...always.

 

Last year was fairly cloudy and cool... we were here in the morning and then left for Couer D'Alene and it was windy and drizzling before we departed.

 

2015 was of course hot.

 

My point for this year is that the progression and timing line up well for a troughy, cool period around that time.  

[Front Ranger]

Meanwhile, record-breaking heatwave underway.

[TT-SEA]

Meanwhile, record-breaking heatwave underway.

Impressive 96 at PDX.

 

SEA is only 85.

[Phil]

Impressive 96 at PDX.

 

SEA is only 85.

Lame.

[TT-SEA]

Lame.

Beat the ECMWF forecast of 79 at SEA. That is really lame!

[ShawniganLake]

Impressive 96 at PDX.

 

SEA is only 85.

78 at Everett

 

Also 85 here, we seem to track pretty close to Seattle on days like today and then end up a degree or 2 cooler in the late afternoon.

[BLI snowman]

Back to back 100+ a distinct possibility.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

98 at SLE. Wow

[luvssnow_spokane]

My guess is that the trough in the GOA expands over the PNW during the first week of July and then the 4-corners high builds in and pushes it back as we go into the second week of July. Earth shattering stuff I know.

Dear God ... noooooooooo! Please noooooo ... please!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Summer just isn't what it used to be here.... so much warmer consistently even from when I was a kid.

[luvssnow_spokane]

About what I expect for the 4th of July on the 12Z ECMWF...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017062412/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

Fricken nightmare!! Planning this event for 800+ people is stressful enough and throwing this in the mix is just a little sucky.

[ShawniganLake]

[ShawniganLake]

The heat index is higher in Portland than DCA. Lucky you Phil.

[FroYoBro]

The heat index is higher in Portland than DCA. Lucky you Phil.

HEATWAVE BURN. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

It'll be much nicer by the following weekend

Geee thanks  <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_unsure.png" alt=":unsure:">

[DareDuck]

Red Flag Warnings posted for central OR up through south-central WA for tomorrow and Monday. Could see some dry lightning with these storms. Hopefully by Monday afternoon the storms will produce some rainfall.

 

Edit: Currently a FWW for Monday but should be a RFW tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

Summer just isn't what it used to be here.... so much warmer consistently even from when I was a kid.

 

Used to be more consistently warm in the June - August period from 1900-1930.

 

That era was awesome... warm, dry summers and cold, snowy winters.

[TT-SEA]

90 here... 88 at OLM... 87 at SEA... and only 81 at Everett (the icebox of the lowlands).

 

97 at PDX.

[TT-SEA]

Fricken nightmare!! Planning this event for 800+ people is stressful enough and throwing this in the mix is just a little sucky.

 

We like to keep our plans flexible for the 4th of July... planning a big event on this side of the mountains is always a roll of the dice.   

 

Our history has lots of examples of warmth in the last week of June and cool, wet weather during the first week of July.  

[wx_statman]

Used to be more consistently warm in the June - August period from 1900-1930.

 

That era was awesome... warm, dry summers and cold, snowy winters.

 

I have a hard time believing that, especially pre-1920. We definitely had a run of hot summers in the 1920s-40s though.

[luvssnow_spokane]

We like to keep our plans flexible for the 4th of July... planning a big event on this side of the mountains is always a roll of the dice.   

 

Our history has lots of examples of warmth in the last week of June and cool, wet weather during the first week of July.  

I know... I deal with it every year. *sigh*... This is our event: http://fallingwatercommunity.com/Family4th/Welcome.html

[TT-SEA]

I have a hard time believing that, especially pre-1920. We definitely had a run of hot summers in the 1920s-40s though.

 

Well you would know best.   I went through daily records for every summer at Snoqualmie Falls since 1899.

 

1901, 1902, 1904, 1905, 1909, 1914, 1917, and 1919 were all gems in the 1900-1920 period.   And many others that were really nice but a notch below that list.

 

1922 was an incredible summer as well.