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Forecast for August 21, 2017

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#1
Chris

Posted 20 June 2017 - 01:50 PM

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On August 21, 2017 a solar eclipse will occur in the United States, stretching from Oregon to South Carolina.  Twelve million people live in the totality path, but 200 million people live within a day’s drive.  This could be the worst nationwide traffic jam in American history.  There is no precedent.

 

 

Madras, Oregon, population 6,000+ is statistically the most likely place to have clear skies that day.  City officials estimate 100,000 people will be there to watch.  Motels are charging $1200/night with a two night minimum. Dry camping spots are going for $300.  Cell phones won’t work, as the towers are overwhelmed with the volume of calls.  Oregon Department of Transportation officials guess 1,000,000 people will be traveling Oregon roads that day.

 

 

Just imagine the collective “MOTHER F****R” shouted that morning if it’s cloudy.

 

112116_TB_Eclipse.jpg


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#2
TT-SEA

Posted 20 June 2017 - 01:53 PM

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I think people will have enough warning if its going to be a marine layer day... at least they can adjust accordingly and head east which will be a complete mess through the mountain passes and the Gorge. 

 

But if we have a regionally rainy day... that would truly suck.   Certainly a possibility by that point in the late summer season.



#3
stuffradio

Posted 20 June 2017 - 02:09 PM

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We all know it will rain. It's just bound to happen. :lol:



#4
TT-SEA

Posted 20 June 2017 - 02:46 PM

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Probably already been discussed... but I remember the 2/26/79 eclipse and watching it at school with our homemade viewers.   

 

I did not realize the path of totality was right across NW OR on that one as well.   Does anyone who was alive then remember it?   What was the weather like that day?

 

Looks like was 48 and raining in this area that day.  

 

path-760.png



#5
TT-SEA

Posted 20 June 2017 - 02:53 PM

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Actually found video of news coverage from 2/26/79.   Here was a view of downtown Portland just as the eclipse was beginning that day.   Not ideal conditions.   :)

 

image.png

 

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=gAacZoIJUN0



#6
Jesse

Posted 20 June 2017 - 03:08 PM

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Probably already been discussed... but I remember the 2/26/79 eclipse and watching it at school with our homemade viewers.

I did not realize the path of totality was right across NW OR on that one as well. Does anyone who was alive then remember it? What was the weather like that day?

Looks like was 48 and raining in this area that day.


My grandpa and his brother drove out to the Goldendale observatory to view that one. Apparently they had clear skies and a pretty good show out that way.

#7
TT-SEA

Posted 20 June 2017 - 03:23 PM

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My grandpa and his brother drove out to the Goldendale observatory to view that one. Apparently they had clear skies and a pretty good show out that way.

 

They might be in this video!    Some interesting people there.  :)

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=Ytn0TL8eI1g



#8
Phil

Posted 20 June 2017 - 06:52 PM

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I'm going to be in Saint Simons GA then. Should catch most of it down there.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

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#9
wx_statman

Posted 20 June 2017 - 10:54 PM

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They might be in this video!    Some interesting people there.   :)

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=Ytn0TL8eI1g

 

Holy sh*t, they found a black guy in Goldendale in the 70's?



#10
Jesse

Posted 21 June 2017 - 06:11 AM

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They might be in this video! Some interesting people there. :)


Sort of a disappointing video astronomy wise. Didn't even show the eclipse.

I found it culturally interesting, though. Didn't see my Grandpa or great Uncle.

#11
TT-SEA

Posted 21 June 2017 - 06:40 AM

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Sort of a disappointing video astronomy wise. Didn't even show the eclipse.

I found it culturally interesting, though. Didn't see my Grandpa or great Uncle.

 

I was thinking that as well.  



#12
Chris

Posted 21 June 2017 - 07:07 AM

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So who all is going to watch it?  The next total solar eclipse across Oregon is in 2169, except for a small spot at the coast that gets one in 2108.



#13
Jesse

Posted 21 June 2017 - 07:21 AM

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So who all is going to watch it? The next total solar eclipse across Oregon is in 2169, except for a small spot at the coast that gets one in 2108.


We are camping near Madras for the five days leading up to the eclipse. Already have the spots reserved and everything.

Hopefully getting down there five days early will spare us from the worst of the traffic.

#14
Phil

Posted 21 June 2017 - 09:57 AM

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Watch there be a perfectly-timed jet extension or something to cloud things up.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#15
DareDuck

Posted 21 June 2017 - 02:54 PM

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We are camping near Madras for the five days leading up to the eclipse. Already have the spots reserved and everything.

Hopefully getting down there five days early will spare us from the worst of the traffic.


How close to Madras? I was thinking out near Mitchell a little away from the Painted Hills. Some pretty remote areas out that way.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#16
Front Ranger

Posted 21 June 2017 - 08:56 PM

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We're headed up to WY to watch it. Staying with friends in Jackson.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#17
TT-SEA

Posted 21 June 2017 - 09:29 PM

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We're headed up to WY to watch it. Staying with friends in Jackson.

 

Sort of nice how it cuts right across the middle the country from west to east... offering so many people an opportunity to drive to see it.   

 

I bet weather forecasts in the days before are going to cause massive shifts in people's plans.



#18
Phil

Posted 22 June 2017 - 12:04 AM

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The "spring tides" will be fun at the beach in GA, given the tidal rise/fall in water levels there is already the greatest of anywhere on the east coast, due to the shape of the coastline and gentle slope of the land. You often have an extra 200-400 yards of beach at low tide compared to high tide.

Would be even more epic if the eclipse were to occur with a hurricane offshore throwing wade action at us.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#19
Chris

Posted 22 June 2017 - 07:00 AM

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Sort of nice how it cuts right across the middle the country from west to east... offering so many people an opportunity to drive to see it.   

 

I bet weather forecasts in the days before are going to cause massive shifts in people's plans.

 

We have a couple of locations picked out, depending on the weather.  Plan A is the mountains north of Mt. Vernon, OR.  Like Jesse, we are going early.



#20
Kayla

Posted 22 June 2017 - 07:23 AM

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We're headed up to WY to watch it. Staying with friends in Jackson.

 

Headed down to Jackson/Tetons as well!


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 222.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#21
DareDuck

Posted 23 June 2017 - 03:39 PM

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We have a couple of locations picked out, depending on the weather. Plan A is the mountains north of Mt. Vernon, OR. Like Jesse, we are going early.


Near Beach Creek Summit?

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#22
Chris

Posted 23 June 2017 - 04:46 PM

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Near Beach Creek Summit?

 

Yep pretty close to there, just a little farther west.



#23
Front Ranger

Posted 23 June 2017 - 05:44 PM

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Headed down to Jackson/Tetons as well!


Nice! Supposed to be a lot of people going to that area, but I'm sure we'll find a good spot to watch.
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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#24
Jesse

Posted 23 June 2017 - 06:14 PM

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Yep pretty close to there, just a little farther west.

 

I'll be sure to make a post on an astronomy enthusiast page on facebook telling everyone that's the best place to go. ;)



#25
Jesse

Posted 23 June 2017 - 06:15 PM

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How close to Madras? I was thinking out near Mitchell a little away from the Painted Hills. Some pretty remote areas out that way.

 

Fairly close. Should be a good view of the Cascades to the west as well, assuming it's clear. If so, we will be able to see the shadow of the moon move over Mount Jefferson first, as it progresses toward central Oregon.



#26
DareDuck

Posted 24 June 2017 - 08:17 AM

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Fairly close. Should be a good view of the Cascades to the west as well, assuming it's clear. If so, we will be able to see the shadow of the moon move over Mount Jefferson first, as it progresses toward central Oregon.


Nice. I thought about heading over there, but I figure a lot of the west siders will be there so I'm heading further east. It's going to be busy everywhere, but hopefully not as chaotic out east.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#27
Chris

Posted 07 August 2017 - 01:56 PM

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Here's a chart that Nelsen posted in his blog about the Euro's chance of rain in Salem.

 

screenshot_149.png


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#28
wx_statman

Posted 08 August 2017 - 11:07 AM

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"Oregon officials fear unprepared solar eclipse visitors could lead to wildfire disaster"

 

https://www.accuweat...saster/70002368



#29
Chris

Posted 09 August 2017 - 02:46 PM

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http://www.kptv.com/...12-weather-blog



#30
Chris

Posted 09 August 2017 - 02:50 PM

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"Oregon officials fear unprepared solar eclipse visitors could lead to wildfire disaster"

 

https://www.accuweat...saster/70002368

 

I hear locals are extremely nervous.  One farmer plans on blocking all roads onto his land with vehicles or farm equipment.



#31
Chris

Posted 14 August 2017 - 06:54 AM

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FWIW... the 00Z ECMWF shows mostly sunny skies across the region on the morning of 8/21:

 

ecmwf_tcloud_washington_32.png



#32
TT-SEA

Posted 14 August 2017 - 10:09 AM

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If the eclipse next week is blocked by clouds... there is always 10/14/2023 when another eclipse crosses Oregon just a bit south of the path next week.



#33
Front Ranger

Posted 14 August 2017 - 10:26 AM

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If the eclipse next week is blocked by clouds... there is always 10/14/2023 when another eclipse crosses Oregon just a bit south of the path next week.

 

That one isn't a total eclipse, though. And given the October date, much more likely to be cloudy. Couldn't have asked for much better time of year for the big one this year...hopefully the weather comes through.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#34
TT-SEA

Posted 14 August 2017 - 10:32 AM

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12Z WRF looks about the same for next Monday morning...

 

intcld.174.0000.gif



#35
TT-SEA

Posted 14 August 2017 - 11:55 AM

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12Z ECMWF looking much less optimistic...

 

ecmwf_tcloud_washington_30.png



#36
DareDuck

Posted 14 August 2017 - 05:58 PM

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12Z ECMWF looking much less optimistic...

ecmwf_tcloud_washington_30.png


Looks good for our region.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#37
TT-SEA

Posted 14 August 2017 - 06:51 PM

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Looks good for our region.

 

 

Its a shield of mid and high level clouds so that would not stop at the Cascades... if that scenario plays out then it will come down to timing.



#38
Chris

Posted 15 August 2017 - 08:20 AM

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Another Mark Nelsen post

 

http://www.kptv.com/...12-weather-blog

 

Part of the post quotes an eclipse chaser.  His advice:

 

This is my 26th eclipse trip (16 TSEs seen, 6 annulars, 3 missed because of rain, clouds,and yes, wind). I’ve been using Jay Anderson (Environment Canada, retired meteorologist, who saved my eclipse in Australia by telling me to get off shore) and his blog eclipsophile, which already is looking at the 2 Jul 2019 eclipse. I have access to several other pages there, too, and can attest to what Mark has said regarding the uselessness of predicting cloudiness this far out. A couple of thoughts:

1. High clouds don’t ruin an eclipse; very few of my total viewings were in a clear sky. Puffy cumulus clouds drive you crazy, because you don’t know what they will do. Stratus, of course, is awful. Totally clear is rare; if you get it enjoy.

2. As the atmosphere cools during the partial phases, clouds may form. Then again, any convection (looking unlikely) gets shut off. The most I’ve seen the temp drop is 11 C (20 F). With moderately high dew points, the drop will probably be less.

3. Smoke is likely to be a concern for this eclipse, but the haze we had last week would have been OK, just not optimal, for viewing. I was camped out in northern Washington a week before, and you could barely see the Sun at all.

4. That said, I will be north of Ontario, about 1300 meters if I can (4200′), and have bail out plans in both directions, although it would have to be a major difference to consider going a long distance on eclipse AM. It wouldn’t be the first time. Hope all the eclipse virgins get to see it.

I’ve give a lot of talks from here to Prairie City, and tell people three things:

1. Totality is worth seeing. (Recent TED talk worth viewing).

2. Be safe, both in getting to the path and protecting your eyes.

3. If it’s your first, don’t take pictures. You’ll see better ones, mine have gathered dust, and every second spent looking at the camera takes away from the experience. This may be the only one you ever see. Enjoy it!


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#39
TT-SEA

Posted 15 August 2017 - 10:41 AM

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12Z ECMWF look awesome for Monday morning.

 

 

ecmwf_tcloud_nw_26.png


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#40
Chris

Posted 16 August 2017 - 03:05 PM

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The NWS Pendleton office compiled all the visible satellite pictures for August 20 -22 at 11 am going back to 1979.  The video is a little drawn out, but you can see the historical cloudiness at whatever NW location you might be at.

 



#41
DareDuck

Posted 18 August 2017 - 08:59 AM

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The NWS Pendleton office compiled all the visible satellite pictures for August 20 -22 at 11 am going back to 1979. The video is a little drawn out, but you can see the historical cloudiness at whatever NW location you might be at.


When are you going out to your spot?

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#42
Chris

Posted 18 August 2017 - 10:07 AM

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I'm leaving tonight after work.  I've talked to two people who have driven to the Madras area.  Both said that traffic was not an issue.

 

Mark Nelsen posted that confidence is growing in a clear weather eclipse forecast.

 

screenshot_163.png



#43
Front Ranger

Posted 18 August 2017 - 10:15 AM

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Forecast also looking good for WY.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#44
Black Hole

Posted 18 August 2017 - 12:26 PM

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This will be a neat page when the eclipse gets closer. 

https://hwp-viz.gsd....v/graphics.html


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#45
TT-SEA

Posted 18 August 2017 - 01:12 PM

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12Z ECMWF at eclipse time...

 

ecmwf_tcloud_nw_14.png



#46
DareDuck

Posted 18 August 2017 - 01:15 PM

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I'm leaving tonight after work. I've talked to two people who have driven to the Madras area. Both said that traffic was not an issue.

Mark Nelsen posted that confidence is growing in a clear weather eclipse forecast.

screenshot_163.png


Sounds good. If you have service when you get out there is there any chance you could PM how many people are out there already? We're going out tomorrow morning.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#47
Chris

Posted 18 August 2017 - 02:42 PM

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Sounds good. If you have service when you get out there is there any chance you could PM how many people are out there already? We're going out tomorrow morning.

 

 

Will do if I can.  Hopefully Tim will keep posting the cloud cover forecast too.

 

The NAM 3km is out to Sunday night.

 

screenshot_166.png



#48
wx_statman

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:18 PM

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We're going down 97 early on Monday morning. Leaving Portland at 5:30am or so. The plan is to make it to Shaniko before the eclipse...we'll see though. We all acknowledge the possibility that we might have to settle for a partial eclipse while stuck in a traffic jam.  :lol:


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#49
TT-SEA

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:21 PM

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We're going down 97 early on Monday morning. Leaving Portland at 5:30am or so. The plan is to make it to Shaniko before the eclipse...we'll see though. We all acknowledge the possibility that we might have to settle for a partial eclipse while stuck in a traffic jam.  :lol:

 

My sons say there are leaving here at 2:30 a.m. on Monday and heading to Madras via Yakima.     I told them they might be watching a partial eclipse from the car.  


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#50
wx_statman

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:23 PM

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My sons say there are leaving here at 2:30 a.m. on Monday and heading to Madras via Yakima.     I told them they might be watching a partial eclipse from the car.  

 

Definitely a roll of the dice. We figure it will make for a good story regardless of what happens.