[Tom]

As we approach the month, in which we celebrate of our countries birthday, Independence Day, let's discuss the trends and potential weather patterns that may be depicted during the month of July.  TBH, July is one of my favorite months for many reasons.  For one, I'm a pyro guy and love blowing off fireworks or watching them at the shows held across the country.

 

Having said that, Mother Nature may have her own set of Fireworks during the long holiday weekend between the 2nd - 4th in the central Plains/Midwest region.

 

Will we see our first Anticyclone develop post holiday???  Using the LRC, I think we stand a good chance at some darn good heat/humidity to blossom over much of the forum.

 

12z EPS starting to hone in on the developing heat wave Day 8-10...

 

 

 

 

 

 

How long will this heat last???  Will this month be a repeat of June???  Let's discuss....

 

 

[Niko]

I think July will not be as chilly as June was. We will see. I'm hoping not because after July, its all downhill from there. Average high and lows tend to drop, days getting shorter and etc.

[Tom]

@Okwx, this is a loud signal to a major heat dome just beyond Day 10...

 

[OKwx2k4]

@Okwx, this is a loud signal to a major heat dome just beyond Day 10...

Yeah. I know. :-/. That escalated quickly.

I had another hernia surgery yesterday so I won't be working for at least the next 13-20 days. When I go back, maybe there will only be a difficult 4 weeks of summer left.

[Tom]

Yeah. I know. :-/. That escalated quickly.

I had another hernia surgery yesterday so I won't be working for at least the next 13-20 days. When I go back, maybe there will only be a difficult 4 weeks of summer left.

I hope you have a speedy recovery.  It's still 10 days out, but you never know with this summer pattern.  The ridge might end up being farther north across the high plains/GL's for a brief period.  Don't think it locks and holds like earlier in the month of June.

 

Btw, here are the temp/precip trends on the CFSv2...

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I hope you have a speedy recovery. It's still 10 days out, but you never know with this summer pattern. The ridge might end up being farther north across the high plains/GL's for a brief period. Don't think it locks and holds like earlier in the month of June.

Btw, here are the temp/precip trends on the CFSv2...

Thanks for the well wishes buddy! It's odd for a man my age and of my health to have one hernia, let alone 2 in less than a year's time. I'm very sore today but I'll live.

I do forget that the models have been running warm in my region ever since the end of April. Maybe July comes out average to slightly below here with August close to normal as well. I think the latter half of August into most of September should be really cool this year but that's a long way off still. This is a July discussion. Lol.

[bud2380]

I think July will not be as chilly as June was. We will see. I'm hoping not because after July, its all downhill from there. Average high and lows tend to drop, days getting shorter and etc.

June was a scorcher here in Eastern Iowa for a good chunk of the month.  It's only been the last week that it's been cool here.  We had multiple days into the 90s for highs. I'm hoping for closer to normal temps in the 80s for July.  

[Tom]

Latest 12z GFS trends for the Lakes/Midwest region is the "cool" should "rule" with comfortable temps in the 70's for most, if not, all of the long holiday weekend.  Almost near picture perfect weather if you ask me, except for maybe hit or miss showers Sat/Sun.

[Tom]

Here is the 00z EPS forecast for Hr 270 showing a lot of inconsistency where the ridge may develop beyond the holiday...if it does shift farther west, NW Flow will be the theme for a lot of members..."Ring of Fire" pattern???

 

 

 

[james1976]

If im reading that hr 270 model correctly it looks like its hinting at it being more west?? Yeah.....that would mean more NW flow around here. Count me in!

[Tom]

It doesn't happen often, but the Euro is trending towards the GFS in the 6-10 day range. A lot cooler now compare to what it was showing a couple days ago and could put a wrench into the 4th festivities.

[james1976]

It doesn't happen often, but the Euro is trending towards the GFS in the 6-10 day range. A lot cooler now compare to what it was showing a couple days ago and could put a wrench into the 4th festivities.

Im hoping for the cooler trend. Hope it stays dry for the 4th though!

[Tom]

NWS illustrating the possibility of Excessive Heat for some the weekend after the 4th...

 

[Tom]

12z EPS follows the trend and flips cooler from what it was showing a couple days ago...very interesting...something I really wasn't expecting but, nonetheless, it may be something to consider as we roll on through the summer pattern.

[Niko]

June was a scorcher here in Eastern Iowa for a good chunk of the month.  It's only been the last week that it's been cool here.  We had multiple days into the 90s for highs. I'm hoping for closer to normal temps in the 80s for July.  

A break is definitely needed there. Sounds like it has been way too hot in E. Iowa.

[james1976]

Local met on 6pm news tonight said low 90s for E IA next week. Sounds like he is going against the latest model runs. We shall see.

[BrianJK]

Local met on 6pm news tonight said low 90s for E IA next week. Sounds like he is going against the latest model runs. We shall see.

Skilling mentioned hottest temps of the summer next week. We already had 95, so looks like he's going against latest trends as well.

[Tom]

4th of July weekend looks like near perfection for Chitown.  Mostly Sunny skies, low dews and temps near 80F for pretty much the entire stretch Sat-Tue.  Maybe a pop up shower or storm here or there but def not a washout.

[LNK_Weather]

Looks like wet and warm for NE following the 4th of July, with dews seriously struggling (and likely failing) to get out of the mid-60s most of the stretch, and getting well into the 70s quite a bit.

[Tom]

Looks like wet and warm for NE following the 4th of July, with dews seriously struggling (and likely failing) to get out of the mid-60s most of the stretch, and getting well into the 70s quite a bit.

With all the crops growing and vegetation pretty much in full bloom, I'm sure those dews will have no problem creeping up into the mid/upper 70's.  00z GFS showing some parts of E NE/W IA with dews approaching 80F...yuck!

[jaster220]

With all the crops growing and vegetation pretty much in full bloom, I'm sure those dews will have no problem creeping up into the mid/upper 70's.  00z GFS showing some parts of E NE/W IA with dews approaching 80F...yuck!

 

What's an 80 deg DP even feel like Tom??

 

[LNK_Weather]

What's an 80 deg DP even feel like Tom??

 

20170628 KRMY conditions.GIF

I'm curious as to what the 90* DP in Appleton, WI felt like in 1995.

[Tom]

What's an 80 deg DP even feel like Tom??

 

20170628 KRMY conditions.GIF

LOL, right???  Your enjoying delightful weather conditions.  That is prime time weather when it's in the 70's and less than 50F dewpoints.  I remember last year, ORD temps were in the 90's and dewpoints at, or near 80F...the air was so thick you had difficulty working out...let alone breathe!

[Niko]

I'm curious as to what the 90* DP in Appleton, WI felt like in 1995.

That is crazy. I cant even imagine how unbearable that must be.

[Tom]

The latest JMA weeklies still suggesting a wet/active central CONUS where it has been of late.  Ridges off both coasts would imply a cooler/near average temp pattern for the central region.

 

[jaster220]

The latest JMA weeklies still suggesting a wet/active central CONUS where it has been of late.  Ridges off both coasts would imply a cooler/near average temp pattern for the central region.

 

 

What's up with Hudson Bay? Looks like it's a giant jacuzzi hot tub

[Tom]

What's up with Hudson Bay? Looks like it's a giant jacuzzi hot tub

Ya, that doesn't look right!  Not with this much Ice on it...

 

[jaster220]

Ya, that doesn't look right!  Not with this much Ice on it...

 

 

Wow. Ofc that map does not tell us if the ice is 20 ft thick just 20 mm thick, but that seems to me like a lot of coverage for end of June. Do you know if it's normal for ice to remain all summer up there? That's no doubt been aiding these below normal spells as air feeds down over that "ice cube"

[Tom]

CPC advertising heavy rain threat over the holiday and just beyond...

 

[jaster220]

If we get some much welcomed showers tomorrow, all the better way to start a holiday weekend that looks to feature perfect temps!

 

[Tom]

Wow. Ofc that map does not tell us if the ice is 20 ft thick just 20 mm thick, but that seems to me like a lot of coverage for end of June. Do you know if it's normal for ice to remain all summer up there? That's no doubt been aiding these below normal spells as air feeds down over that "ice cube"

Not sure about the Hudson Bay ice anomalies for this time of year.

 

Edit: I just did a quick search and this is what I found.  The 30-year running average of ice coverage for June 25th...

 

[jaster220]

Not sure about the Hudson Bay ice anomalies for this time of year.
 
Edit: I just did a quick search and this is what I found.  The 30-year running average of ice coverage for June 25th...
 

So it's normally more or less? Twicky map u found there bud!

[Tom]

Here comes the Anticyclone...both GEFS/EPS are showing it in the 6-10 day range...Depending on how far west it stays, it should entail an active NW Flow regime. 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Besides the Earthquake swarm hitting Yellowstone...a torch is on the way over the next 2 weeks...

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

CPC's latest July outlook...

 

 

 

[Tom]

Not sure if this is an atmospheric response to the lower SOI of late, but an El Nino signature showing up in the central PAC near Hawaii as a more active subtropical jet may be starting beyond Day 10.  This also will contribute to a more active Monsoon signal later next week in the desert SW.

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Arctic temps back towards the Freezing Line...it may rebound a little over the next 5 days or so, but trends in the 6-10 are for the Arctic as a whole to cool down.

 

 

 

12z EPS suggests by Day 8-10 sub normal temps to take over...a lot of subnormal temps in the northern latitudes...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If the CFSv2 is right, Greenland and others will be chilly during the month of July...

 

[Niko]

Cant believe July is here already!

[Tom]

I hope every will have a safe and enjoyable 4th of July weekend!  I'm heading out to the west coast and cool off by the beaches of San Diego, specifically, Carlsbad Village area.  Temps along the beaches are supposed to hover in the mid/upper 60's while just a few miles inland your in the mid 70's and they go up quick as you head farther inland.  Looking forward to seeing the ocean and some "eye candy".

[Tom]

Here was last night's run of the CanSips model for the month of July...

 

 

[jaster220]

I hope every will have a safe and enjoyable 4th of July weekend!  I'm heading out to the west coast and cool off by the beaches of San Diego, specifically, Carlsbad Village area.  Temps along the beaches are supposed to hover in the mid/upper 60's while just a few miles inland your in the mid 70's and they go up quick as you head farther inland.  Looking forward to seeing the ocean and some "eye candy".

 

Happy Independence Day to you and all posting peeps! Enjoy those cooler temps Tom. Have you given up on IL for the summer??

 

@ Cansips for July - You're painting mby in green! x2

[Tom]

Happy Independence Day to you and all posting peeps! Enjoy those cooler temps Tom. Have you given up on IL for the summer??

@ Cansips for July - You're painting mby in green! x2

Have not given up just yet! Just a little longer stay than usual. Lots of exciting things happening with work. I'll be back sometime this month. At least, that's the plan for now. Enjoy Pure Michigan!

[LNK_Weather]

Hey I'm in the Carlsbad Village area right now coincidentally enough. Nice to not be in the 90*+ heat!

[Tom]

Hey I'm in the Carlsbad Village area right now coincidentally enough.

Sweet!  Do you have family out there or just visiting? 

[Niko]

I hope every will have a safe and enjoyable 4th of July weekend!  I'm heading out to the west coast and cool off by the beaches of San Diego, specifically, Carlsbad Village area.  Temps along the beaches are supposed to hover in the mid/upper 60's while just a few miles inland your in the mid 70's and they go up quick as you head farther inland.  Looking forward to seeing the ocean and some "eye candy".

Watch out for the Sharks.

[LNK_Weather]

Sweet!  Do you have family out there or just visiting? 

I've got family in Carlsbad. Always here for the 4th and Thanksgiving.

[Thunder98]

30 day precip totals for the Midwest.

[Tom]

I've got family in Carlsbad. Always here for the 4th and Thanksgiving.

Where are you heading for the Fireworks? Any recommendations? I read Oceanside has them on the 3rd and Carlsbad on the 4th.

On another note, it's so nice to have arrived last night and instantly feel the moisture and cooler air as we got across the mountain range. Too bad it's cloudy this morning but I'm not complaining either. 67F feels so d**n good. The locals nickname the clouds early in the day "June Gloom". We're in July...Let's go!

[LNK_Weather]

Where are heading for the Fireworks? Any recommendations? I read Oceanside has them on the 3rd and Carlsbad on the 4th.

On another note, it's so nice to have arrived last night and instantly feel the moisture and cooler air as we got across the mountain range. Too bad it's cloudy this morning but I'm not complaining either. 67F feels so d**n good. The locals nickname the clouds early in they day "June Gloom". We're in July...Let's go!

Legoland's fireworks are always fun to watch. They're viewable from just about anywhere in Carlsbad.

[jaster220]

30 day precip totals for the Midwest.

 

Sheesh @ central IL - even worse than SMI. Hope your July is an improvement