Tom Posted June 26, 2017 Report Share Posted June 26, 2017 As we approach the month, in which we celebrate of our countries birthday, Independence Day, let's discuss the trends and potential weather patterns that may be depicted during the month of July. TBH, July is one of my favorite months for many reasons. For one, I'm a pyro guy and love blowing off fireworks or watching them at the shows held across the country. Having said that, Mother Nature may have her own set of Fireworks during the long holiday weekend between the 2nd - 4th in the central Plains/Midwest region. Will we see our first Anticyclone develop post holiday??? Using the LRC, I think we stand a good chance at some darn good heat/humidity to blossom over much of the forum. 12z EPS starting to hone in on the developing heat wave Day 8-10... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017062612/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_10.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017062612/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png How long will this heat last??? Will this month be a repeat of June??? Let's discuss.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 26, 2017 Report Share Posted June 26, 2017 I think July will not be as chilly as June was. We will see. I'm hoping not because after July, its all downhill from there. Average high and lows tend to drop, days getting shorter and etc. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 @Okwx, this is a loud signal to a major heat dome just beyond Day 10... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 @Okwx, this is a loud signal to a major heat dome just beyond Day 10... Yeah. I know. :-/. That escalated quickly. I had another hernia surgery yesterday so I won't be working for at least the next 13-20 days. When I go back, maybe there will only be a difficult 4 weeks of summer left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Yeah. I know. :-/. That escalated quickly. I had another hernia surgery yesterday so I won't be working for at least the next 13-20 days. When I go back, maybe there will only be a difficult 4 weeks of summer left.I hope you have a speedy recovery. It's still 10 days out, but you never know with this summer pattern. The ridge might end up being farther north across the high plains/GL's for a brief period. Don't think it locks and holds like earlier in the month of June. Btw, here are the temp/precip trends on the CFSv2... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201707.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201707.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 I hope you have a speedy recovery. It's still 10 days out, but you never know with this summer pattern. The ridge might end up being farther north across the high plains/GL's for a brief period. Don't think it locks and holds like earlier in the month of June. Btw, here are the temp/precip trends on the CFSv2... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201707.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201707.gifThanks for the well wishes buddy! It's odd for a man my age and of my health to have one hernia, let alone 2 in less than a year's time. I'm very sore today but I'll live. I do forget that the models have been running warm in my region ever since the end of April. Maybe July comes out average to slightly below here with August close to normal as well. I think the latter half of August into most of September should be really cool this year but that's a long way off still. This is a July discussion. Lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 I think July will not be as chilly as June was. We will see. I'm hoping not because after July, its all downhill from there. Average high and lows tend to drop, days getting shorter and etc.June was a scorcher here in Eastern Iowa for a good chunk of the month. It's only been the last week that it's been cool here. We had multiple days into the 90s for highs. I'm hoping for closer to normal temps in the 80s for July. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Latest 12z GFS trends for the Lakes/Midwest region is the "cool" should "rule" with comfortable temps in the 70's for most, if not, all of the long holiday weekend. Almost near picture perfect weather if you ask me, except for maybe hit or miss showers Sat/Sun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Here is the 00z EPS forecast for Hr 270 showing a lot of inconsistency where the ridge may develop beyond the holiday...if it does shift farther west, NW Flow will be the theme for a lot of members..."Ring of Fire" pattern??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 If im reading that hr 270 model correctly it looks like its hinting at it being more west?? Yeah.....that would mean more NW flow around here. Count me in! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 It doesn't happen often, but the Euro is trending towards the GFS in the 6-10 day range. A lot cooler now compare to what it was showing a couple days ago and could put a wrench into the 4th festivities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 It doesn't happen often, but the Euro is trending towards the GFS in the 6-10 day range. A lot cooler now compare to what it was showing a couple days ago and could put a wrench into the 4th festivities.Im hoping for the cooler trend. Hope it stays dry for the 4th though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 NWS illustrating the possibility of Excessive Heat for some the weekend after the 4th... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 12z EPS follows the trend and flips cooler from what it was showing a couple days ago...very interesting...something I really wasn't expecting but, nonetheless, it may be something to consider as we roll on through the summer pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 June was a scorcher here in Eastern Iowa for a good chunk of the month. It's only been the last week that it's been cool here. We had multiple days into the 90s for highs. I'm hoping for closer to normal temps in the 80s for July. A break is definitely needed there. Sounds like it has been way too hot in E. Iowa. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 Local met on 6pm news tonight said low 90s for E IA next week. Sounds like he is going against the latest model runs. We shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 Local met on 6pm news tonight said low 90s for E IA next week. Sounds like he is going against the latest model runs. We shall see.Skilling mentioned hottest temps of the summer next week. We already had 95, so looks like he's going against latest trends as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 4th of July weekend looks like near perfection for Chitown. Mostly Sunny skies, low dews and temps near 80F for pretty much the entire stretch Sat-Tue. Maybe a pop up shower or storm here or there but def not a washout. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 Looks like wet and warm for NE following the 4th of July, with dews seriously struggling (and likely failing) to get out of the mid-60s most of the stretch, and getting well into the 70s quite a bit. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 Looks like wet and warm for NE following the 4th of July, with dews seriously struggling (and likely failing) to get out of the mid-60s most of the stretch, and getting well into the 70s quite a bit.With all the crops growing and vegetation pretty much in full bloom, I'm sure those dews will have no problem creeping up into the mid/upper 70's. 00z GFS showing some parts of E NE/W IA with dews approaching 80F...yuck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 With all the crops growing and vegetation pretty much in full bloom, I'm sure those dews will have no problem creeping up into the mid/upper 70's. 00z GFS showing some parts of E NE/W IA with dews approaching 80F...yuck! What's an 80 deg DP even feel like Tom?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 What's an 80 deg DP even feel like Tom?? 20170628 KRMY conditions.GIFI'm curious as to what the 90* DP in Appleton, WI felt like in 1995. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 What's an 80 deg DP even feel like Tom?? 20170628 KRMY conditions.GIFLOL, right??? Your enjoying delightful weather conditions. That is prime time weather when it's in the 70's and less than 50F dewpoints. I remember last year, ORD temps were in the 90's and dewpoints at, or near 80F...the air was so thick you had difficulty working out...let alone breathe! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 I'm curious as to what the 90* DP in Appleton, WI felt like in 1995.That is crazy. I cant even imagine how unbearable that must be. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 The latest JMA weeklies still suggesting a wet/active central CONUS where it has been of late. Ridges off both coasts would imply a cooler/near average temp pattern for the central region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 The latest JMA weeklies still suggesting a wet/active central CONUS where it has been of late. Ridges off both coasts would imply a cooler/near average temp pattern for the central region. What's up with Hudson Bay? Looks like it's a giant jacuzzi hot tub Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 What's up with Hudson Bay? Looks like it's a giant jacuzzi hot tub Ya, that doesn't look right! Not with this much Ice on it... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 Ya, that doesn't look right! Not with this much Ice on it... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif Wow. Ofc that map does not tell us if the ice is 20 ft thick just 20 mm thick, but that seems to me like a lot of coverage for end of June. Do you know if it's normal for ice to remain all summer up there? That's no doubt been aiding these below normal spells as air feeds down over that "ice cube" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 CPC advertising heavy rain threat over the holiday and just beyond... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours_home.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 29, 2017 Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 If we get some much welcomed showers tomorrow, all the better way to start a holiday weekend that looks to feature perfect temps! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2017 Wow. Ofc that map does not tell us if the ice is 20 ft thick just 20 mm thick, but that seems to me like a lot of coverage for end of June. Do you know if it's normal for ice to remain all summer up there? That's no doubt been aiding these below normal spells as air feeds down over that "ice cube"Not sure about the Hudson Bay ice anomalies for this time of year. Edit: I just did a quick search and this is what I found. The 30-year running average of ice coverage for June 25th... http://www.ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/IA30_2010_AR_CTMED/ar_ctmed0625.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 30, 2017 Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 Not sure about the Hudson Bay ice anomalies for this time of year. Edit: I just did a quick search and this is what I found. The 30-year running average of ice coverage for June 25th... http://www.ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/IA30_2010_AR_CTMED/ar_ctmed0625.gifSo it's normally more or less? Twicky map u found there bud! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 Here comes the Anticyclone...both GEFS/EPS are showing it in the 6-10 day range...Depending on how far west it stays, it should entail an active NW Flow regime. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017063000/gfs-ens_z500aMean_us_6.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 Besides the Earthquake swarm hitting Yellowstone...a torch is on the way over the next 2 weeks... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 CPC's latest July outlook... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 Not sure if this is an atmospheric response to the lower SOI of late, but an El Nino signature showing up in the central PAC near Hawaii as a more active subtropical jet may be starting beyond Day 10. This also will contribute to a more active Monsoon signal later next week in the desert SW. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017063012/gfs-ens_uv250_npac_41.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017063012/gfs-ens_uv250_npac_53.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 Arctic temps back towards the Freezing Line...it may rebound a little over the next 5 days or so, but trends in the 6-10 are for the Arctic as a whole to cool down. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png 12z EPS suggests by Day 8-10 sub normal temps to take over...a lot of subnormal temps in the northern latitudes... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017063012/ecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_9.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017063012/ecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.png If the CFSv2 is right, Greenland and others will be chilly during the month of July... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017063000/cfs-mon_01_T850a_nhem_1.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 30, 2017 Report Share Posted June 30, 2017 Cant believe July is here already! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 I hope every will have a safe and enjoyable 4th of July weekend! I'm heading out to the west coast and cool off by the beaches of San Diego, specifically, Carlsbad Village area. Temps along the beaches are supposed to hover in the mid/upper 60's while just a few miles inland your in the mid 70's and they go up quick as you head farther inland. Looking forward to seeing the ocean and some "eye candy". 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Here was last night's run of the CanSips model for the month of July... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017070100/cansips_T2ma_us_1.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017070100/cansips_apcpna_month_us_1.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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