July 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

I hope every will have a safe and enjoyable 4th of July weekend!  I'm heading out to the west coast and cool off by the beaches of San Diego, specifically, Carlsbad Village area.  Temps along the beaches are supposed to hover in the mid/upper 60's while just a few miles inland your in the mid 70's and they go up quick as you head farther inland.  Looking forward to seeing the ocean and some "eye candy".

 

Happy Independence Day to you and all posting peeps! Enjoy those cooler temps Tom. Have you given up on IL for the summer??

 

@ Cansips for July - You're painting mby in green! x2

[Tom]

Happy Independence Day to you and all posting peeps! Enjoy those cooler temps Tom. Have you given up on IL for the summer??

 

@ Cansips for July - You're painting mby in green! x2

Have not given up just yet! Just a little longer stay than usual. Lots of exciting things happening with work. I'll be back sometime this month. At least, that's the plan for now. Enjoy Pure Michigan!

[Minny_Weather]

Hey I'm in the Carlsbad Village area right now coincidentally enough. Nice to not be in the 90*+ heat!

[Tom]

Hey I'm in the Carlsbad Village area right now coincidentally enough.

Sweet!  Do you have family out there or just visiting? 

[Niko]

I hope every will have a safe and enjoyable 4th of July weekend!  I'm heading out to the west coast and cool off by the beaches of San Diego, specifically, Carlsbad Village area.  Temps along the beaches are supposed to hover in the mid/upper 60's while just a few miles inland your in the mid 70's and they go up quick as you head farther inland.  Looking forward to seeing the ocean and some "eye candy".

Watch out for the Sharks.

[Minny_Weather]

Sweet!  Do you have family out there or just visiting? 

I've got family in Carlsbad. Always here for the 4th and Thanksgiving.

[Thunder98]

30 day precip totals for the Midwest.

http://www.weather.gov/source/grb/wxstory/mapjune.PNG

[Tom]

I've got family in Carlsbad. Always here for the 4th and Thanksgiving.

Where are you heading for the Fireworks? Any recommendations? I read Oceanside has them on the 3rd and Carlsbad on the 4th.

 

On another note, it's so nice to have arrived last night and instantly feel the moisture and cooler air as we got across the mountain range. Too bad it's cloudy this morning but I'm not complaining either. 67F feels so D**n good. The locals nickname the clouds early in the day "June Gloom". We're in July...Let's go!

[Minny_Weather]

Where are heading for the Fireworks? Any recommendations? I read Oceanside has them on the 3rd and Carlsbad on the 4th.

 

On another note, it's so nice to have arrived last night and instantly feel the moisture and cooler air as we got across the mountain range. Too bad it's cloudy this morning but I'm not complaining either. 67F feels so d**n good. The locals nickname the clouds early in they day "June Gloom". We're in July...Let's go!

Legoland's fireworks are always fun to watch. They're viewable from just about anywhere in Carlsbad.

[jaster220]

30 day precip totals for the Midwest.

http://www.weather.gov/source/grb/wxstory/mapjune.PNG

 

Sheesh @ central IL - even worse than SMI. Hope your July is an improvement

[bud2380]

Some pop up storms look they are forming right over my house. I'll have to check my gauge when I get home

[OKwx2k4]

I like a little lightning and thunder with my fireworks! Lots of early fireworks going off. Sounds like war. Gives perspective I guess. I'm a grateful American today.

[Tom]

It doesn't get any better than this...Happy 4th of July everyone! #MAGA #HappyBDay'Merica

 

Took a morning jog along the coastal hwy breathing in the oceanic air under ample Cali sunshine. Thank you God! Have a splendid day. Time to pound some breakfast. Adios!

[Niko]

Sunshine, Sunshine and nothing but Sunshine. Looks like my sprinklers will have to be turned on a bit more than usual.

[OKwx2k4]

Going to have to say that this stretch of never seeing 90º is probably the 2nd longest I remember behind 2008. Will be cool to see if I can make it past the 15th without breaking the streak.

[OKwx2k4]

 

Also like seeing lots of blue in July.

 

 

 

 

[bud2380]

a tiny blip on the radar is producing some very heavy rain in my town.  I'm not home, so i can't tell for sure if my house is getting hit or not, but I sure hope so.  It's very near by if not a direct hit on my house. 

[Niko]

Another sunny and beautiful day. Keep em comin!!!!!

[Tom]

Made it back from Cali safe and sound...however, back into the intense heat...Well, when I left Cali it was a nearly perfect 77F and when I got to Yuma, AZ to tank up it was a blazing 113F!  It was quite the shock when I opened the door at the gas station and the heat ushered into the car.  It literally felt like I opened the door to the oven!

 

As I drove through S Cali on HWY 8 (near the U.S./Mexico border) specifically, south of the Salton Sea...the Monsoon sparked a pretty heavy downpour and was a pleasant surprise.  It was the closest to a legit thunderstorm that I experienced all year!  Speaking of the Monsoon, it is forecast to start influencing the pattern in the 4 corners going forward over the next 6-10 days.  Can't wait to see some storms.

 

Courtesy of Ryan Maue:  00z EPS looks pretty darn good to me for the month of July...

 

[Hawkeye]

I managed to pick up 0.59" of rain this evening from the very last storm of this early to midweek event.  Until this storm I had received nothing.

[bud2380]

i didn't get a drop last night.  Only .05" for the day and .15" total for July.  Starting to run a deficit here.  Drought monitor has most of the south half of iowa in abnormally dry or moderate drought.  

 

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20170704/20170704_ia_none.png

[Tom]

While I was out in Cali, the local news made sure to point out that Squaw Valley was still open through the 4th of July weekend.  In fact, their base is still over a 100" and many trails still open.  The summer sun melts about 3"/day and they were saying they may try to stay open till next season!  Amazing.

 

http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/snow-skiing-snowboarding-Squaw-Valley-Fourth-July-11264181.php

 

http://abc7news.com/weather/squaw-valley-and-mammoth-mountain-still-open-for-skiing/2180856/

[Tom]

Sound the Alarm!  Both the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are growing...#Sarcasm...I find it rather intriguing that both regions are extremely cold relative to normal on opposite sides of the Pole.  I saw this video talking about Greenland setting an all-time record low temp for the northern hemisphere on July 4th:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3dPD5ihf3k&feature=youtu.be

 

Of note, the CFSv2 is forecasting the Antarctic to stay cold through the rest of their Winter into the summer of next year.  Let's see how this plays out down the road and what the climate scientists say about all this.

[Niko]

Another gorgeous sunny day here in SEMI.

[Tom]

Supposed to get up to 115F tomorrow which would be a record. Given the higher dew point levels, it's gonna feel like a torch! Def felt it today.

[NEJeremy]

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

 

The PIOMAS analysis suggests that, relative to the average over the period 2000 to 2015, ice thickness for May 2017 (when the melt season was just beginning) was below average over most of the Arctic Ocean, especially in the Chukchi Sea and north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. A small region with above-average ice thickness is depicted over the Atlantic side of the Arctic north and west of the Svalbard Archipelago, and in the Greenland Sea. Starting the melt season with below-average ice thickness raises the likelihood of having especially low September ice extent.

 

Doesn't look so "rosy" to me. It even mentions the small area near Greenland where ice is above average, but the majority of the Arctic was below average.

[Tom]

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

 

The PIOMAS analysis suggests that, relative to the average over the period 2000 to 2015, ice thickness for May 2017 (when the melt season was just beginning) was below average over most of the Arctic Ocean, especially in the Chukchi Sea and north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. A small region with above-average ice thickness is depicted over the Atlantic side of the Arctic north and west of the Svalbard Archipelago, and in the Greenland Sea. Starting the melt season with below-average ice thickness raises the likelihood of having especially low September ice extent.

 

Doesn't look so "rosy" to me. It even mentions the small area near Greenland where ice is above average, but the majority of the Arctic was below average.

Nice find.  I like this site and will use them for future use.  The Arctic sea ice is a far cry from the doom and gloom of melting away completely.  Obviously, this is a long term play and will have to be monitored over the years.  I'd like to see where we are in 2020 as far as the levels of Arctic Sea Ice extent.

[Tom]

Nice wet signal on the Euro Weeklies in the SW...

 

[OKwx2k4]

My streak of sub 90º days should be over here in an hour or two. This year is running really close to 2008 in a lot of different categories in my region.

[jaster220]

Sunshine, Sunshine and nothing but Sunshine. Looks like my sprinklers will have to be turned on a bit more than usual.

 

Yep. Been there..doing that

[Tom]

The summer-time PV that has been pin-wheeling near Greenland is forecast to track near Hudson Bay by tomorrow and thru the next 4-5 days.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017070712/ecmwf_z500a_namer_2.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017070712/ecmwf_z500a_namer_5.png

 

12z EPS develops a strong Alaskan Ridge in the Day 6-10 period filling up Canada with subnormal temps.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017070712/ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_namer_6.png

[Tom]

@Jaster, this video coincides with your comment about your in-laws in Russia experiencing "the summer that never came"...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lss8uGrX0rE

[Tom]

The latest NASA model run for the rest of Summer into mid Autumn...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_prate_us_season1.png

[Niko]

It actually happened folks. Thunderstorms pounded my area last night, well after midnight, which really pissed me off because I wanted to enjoy them while being awake, not sleeping. Possibly more later tonight. Hopefully, these arrive earlier.

[Niko]

@ Jaster

 

Did you get any thunderstorms late last night?

[Niko]

Well, this just in from NOAA: 

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightScattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon andpersist into the evening as a cold front pushes through the region.There is a slight chance of severe weather with these storms as well.The strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts to 60MPH, hail to one inch in diameter. An isolated tornado is alsopossible. Storms will move to the east at 30 MPH. The chance forsevere weather later today will mainly be between 4 PM and 9 PM.

[BrianJK]

Very nice 4th of July weather week in the northern woods this past week, but back home for a bit now. Very nice day on tap tomorrow around these parts with sunny skies and temp around 80 with low humidity. Things look to turn steamy after that with with upper 80s to mid 90s through next week with dews approaching mid 70s. Loving this summer so far.

[Tom]

Very nice 4th of July weather week in the northern woods this past week, but back home for a bit now. Very nice day on tap tomorrow around these parts with sunny skies and temp around 80 with low humidity. Things look to turn steamy after that with with upper 80s to mid 90s through next week with dews approaching mid 70s. Loving this summer so far.

Did you have your arsenal up north???

[Tom]

PHX smashed a 112 year old record (115F) and reached 117F! Dewpoints in the mid 40's made it feel even worse than about 2 weeks ago when it was 119F.

 

Monsoonal storms forming in the mountains are producing nice dark thunderheads in the distance. Should get some outflows hitting the valley soon.

[BrianJK]

Did you have your arsenal up north???

Yes sir-e. Here was one of my orders: