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July 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#51
bud2380

Posted 03 July 2017 - 10:30 AM

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Some pop up storms look they are forming right over my house. I'll have to check my gauge when I get home

#52
OKwx2k4

Posted 03 July 2017 - 06:21 PM

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I like a little lightning and thunder with my fireworks! Lots of early fireworks going off. Sounds like war. Gives perspective I guess. I'm a grateful American today.
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#53
Tom

Posted 04 July 2017 - 08:17 AM

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It doesn't get any better than this...Happy 4th of July everyone! #MAGA #HappyBDay'Merica

Took a morning jog along the coastal hwy breathing in the oceanic air under ample Cali sunshine. Thank you God! Have a splendid day. Time to pound some breakfast. Adios!
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#54
Niko

Posted 04 July 2017 - 02:50 PM

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Sunshine, Sunshine and nothing but Sunshine. Looks like my sprinklers will have to be turned on a bit more than usual. :blink:


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#55
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 July 2017 - 06:11 AM

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Going to have to say that this stretch of never seeing 90º is probably the 2nd longest I remember behind 2008. Will be cool to see if I can make it past the 15th without breaking the streak.



#56
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 July 2017 - 06:14 AM

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Attached File  tmax.ge90-1.png   149.18KB   3 downloads

 

Also like seeing lots of blue in July.

 

Attached File  gfs_T2ma_us_40.png   155.07KB   3 downloads

 

 

 


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#57
bud2380

Posted 05 July 2017 - 11:38 AM

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a tiny blip on the radar is producing some very heavy rain in my town.  I'm not home, so i can't tell for sure if my house is getting hit or not, but I sure hope so.  It's very near by if not a direct hit on my house. 



#58
Niko

Posted 05 July 2017 - 05:01 PM

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Another sunny and beautiful day. Keep em comin!!!!! :D



#59
Tom

Posted 05 July 2017 - 07:49 PM

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Made it back from Cali safe and sound...however, back into the intense heat...Well, when I left Cali it was a nearly perfect 77F and when I got to Yuma, AZ to tank up it was a blazing 113F!  It was quite the shock when I opened the door at the gas station and the heat ushered into the car.  It literally felt like I opened the door to the oven!

 

As I drove through S Cali on HWY 8 (near the U.S./Mexico border) specifically, south of the Salton Sea...the Monsoon sparked a pretty heavy downpour and was a pleasant surprise.  It was the closest to a legit thunderstorm that I experienced all year!  Speaking of the Monsoon, it is forecast to start influencing the pattern in the 4 corners going forward over the next 6-10 days.  Can't wait to see some storms.

 

Courtesy of Ryan Maue:  00z EPS looks pretty darn good to me for the month of July...

 

DD3EcAvUMAAz71_.jpg



#60
Hawkeye

Posted 05 July 2017 - 08:56 PM

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I managed to pick up 0.59" of rain this evening from the very last storm of this early to midweek event.  Until this storm I had received nothing.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#61
bud2380

Posted 06 July 2017 - 05:13 AM

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i didn't get a drop last night.  Only .05" for the day and .15" total for July.  Starting to run a deficit here.  Drought monitor has most of the south half of iowa in abnormally dry or moderate drought.  

 

 

20170704_ia_none.png



#62
Tom

Posted 06 July 2017 - 06:35 AM

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While I was out in Cali, the local news made sure to point out that Squaw Valley was still open through the 4th of July weekend.  In fact, their base is still over a 100" and many trails still open.  The summer sun melts about 3"/day and they were saying they may try to stay open till next season!  Amazing.

 

http://www.sfgate.co...ly-11264181.php

 

http://abc7news.com/...skiing/2180856/


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#63
Tom

Posted 06 July 2017 - 06:49 AM

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Sound the Alarm!  Both the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are growing...#Sarcasm...I find it rather intriguing that both regions are extremely cold relative to normal on opposite sides of the Pole.  I saw this video talking about Greenland setting an all-time record low temp for the northern hemisphere on July 4th:

 

https://www.youtube....eature=youtu.be

 

Of note, the CFSv2 is forecasting the Antarctic to stay cold through the rest of their Winter into the summer of next year.  Let's see how this plays out down the road and what the climate scientists say about all this.


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#64
Niko

Posted 06 July 2017 - 03:29 PM

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Another gorgeous sunny day here in SEMI. :)



#65
Tom

Posted 06 July 2017 - 03:42 PM

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Supposed to get up to 115F tomorrow which would be a record. Given the higher dew point levels, it's gonna feel like a torch! Def felt it today.

#66
NEJeremy

Posted 06 July 2017 - 08:35 PM

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http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

The PIOMAS analysis suggests that, relative to the average over the period 2000 to 2015, ice thickness for May 2017 (when the melt season was just beginning) was below average over most of the Arctic Ocean, especially in the Chukchi Sea and north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. A small region with above-average ice thickness is depicted over the Atlantic side of the Arctic north and west of the Svalbard Archipelago, and in the Greenland Sea. Starting the melt season with below-average ice thickness raises the likelihood of having especially low September ice extent.

Doesn't look so "rosy" to me. It even mentions the small area near Greenland where ice is above average, but the majority of the Arctic was below average.

#67
Tom

Posted 07 July 2017 - 07:34 AM

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http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

The PIOMAS analysis suggests that, relative to the average over the period 2000 to 2015, ice thickness for May 2017 (when the melt season was just beginning) was below average over most of the Arctic Ocean, especially in the Chukchi Sea and north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. A small region with above-average ice thickness is depicted over the Atlantic side of the Arctic north and west of the Svalbard Archipelago, and in the Greenland Sea. Starting the melt season with below-average ice thickness raises the likelihood of having especially low September ice extent.

Doesn't look so "rosy" to me. It even mentions the small area near Greenland where ice is above average, but the majority of the Arctic was below average.

Nice find.  I like this site and will use them for future use.  The Arctic sea ice is a far cry from the doom and gloom of melting away completely.  Obviously, this is a long term play and will have to be monitored over the years.  I'd like to see where we are in 2020 as far as the levels of Arctic Sea Ice extent.



#68
Tom

Posted 07 July 2017 - 07:45 AM

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Nice wet signal on the Euro Weeklies in the SW...

 

DEIhy45V0AEtaOO.jpg



#69
OKwx2k4

Posted 07 July 2017 - 08:16 AM

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My streak of sub 90º days should be over here in an hour or two. This year is running really close to 2008 in a lot of different categories in my region.

#70
jaster220

Posted 07 July 2017 - 11:42 AM

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Sunshine, Sunshine and nothing but Sunshine. Looks like my sprinklers will have to be turned on a bit more than usual. :blink:

 

Yep. Been there..doing that


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#71
Tom

Posted 07 July 2017 - 12:59 PM

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The summer-time PV that has been pin-wheeling near Greenland is forecast to track near Hudson Bay by tomorrow and thru the next 4-5 days.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_2.png

 

 

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_5.png

 

12z EPS develops a strong Alaskan Ridge in the Day 6-10 period filling up Canada with subnormal temps.

 

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_namer_6.png



#72
Tom

Posted 07 July 2017 - 01:03 PM

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@Jaster, this video coincides with your comment about your in-laws in Russia experiencing "the summer that never came"...

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=lss8uGrX0rE


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#73
Tom

Posted 07 July 2017 - 01:09 PM

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The latest NASA model run for the rest of Summer into mid Autumn...

 

NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

 

NASA_ensemble_prate_us_season1.png



#74
Niko

Posted 07 July 2017 - 01:36 PM

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It actually happened folks. Thunderstorms pounded my area last night, well after midnight, which really pissed me off because I wanted to enjoy them while being awake, not sleeping. Possibly more later tonight. Hopefully, these arrive earlier.


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#75
Niko

Posted 07 July 2017 - 01:39 PM

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@ Jaster

 

Did you get any thunderstorms late last night?



#76
Niko

Posted 07 July 2017 - 01:46 PM

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Well, this just in from NOAA:  :D

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon and
persist into the evening as a cold front pushes through the region.
There is a slight chance of severe weather with these storms as well.
The strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts to 60
MPH, hail to one inch in diameter. An isolated tornado is also
possible. Storms will move to the east at 30 MPH. The chance for
severe weather later today will mainly be between 4 PM and 9 PM.

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#77
BrianJK

Posted 07 July 2017 - 03:26 PM

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Very nice 4th of July weather week in the northern woods this past week, but back home for a bit now. Very nice day on tap tomorrow around these parts with sunny skies and temp around 80 with low humidity. Things look to turn steamy after that with with upper 80s to mid 90s through next week with dews approaching mid 70s. Loving this summer so far.
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#78
Tom

Posted 07 July 2017 - 03:42 PM

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Very nice 4th of July weather week in the northern woods this past week, but back home for a bit now. Very nice day on tap tomorrow around these parts with sunny skies and temp around 80 with low humidity. Things look to turn steamy after that with with upper 80s to mid 90s through next week with dews approaching mid 70s. Loving this summer so far.

Did you have your arsenal up north???



#79
Tom

Posted 07 July 2017 - 04:29 PM

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PHX smashed a 112 year old record (115F) and reached 117F! Dewpoints in the mid 40's made it feel even worse than about 2 weeks ago when it was 119F.

Monsoonal storms forming in the mountains are producing nice dark thunderheads in the distance. Should get some outflows hitting the valley soon.
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#80
BrianJK

Posted 07 July 2017 - 05:18 PM

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Did you have your arsenal up north???

Yes sir-e. Here was one of my orders:

Attached File  IMG_0312.PNG   2.21MB   2 downloads

Attached File  IMG_0199.JPG   132.25KB   0 downloads
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#81
Tom

Posted 07 July 2017 - 06:12 PM

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Yes sir-e. Here was one of my orders:

IMG_0312.PNG

IMG_0199.JPG


Holy s**t! Did you need a permit to blow all of this off? I bet you were the King of the neighborhood. Btw, how many orders did you get?? Lol...I'm coming to your show next year!
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#82
BrianJK

Posted 07 July 2017 - 07:23 PM

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Haha, I told you a while back that my passion for fireworks rivals my love of snowstorms lol. Yes, permit is required although I doubt many obtain one. That was my main order, then I usually make a couple extra pickups whenever I make trips up there. I prepare months in advance and do it all by remote control now - makes for a much more enjoyable experience. The last few years have been picture perfect weather-wise. When was the last time you were up north?

#83
Tom

Posted 07 July 2017 - 08:20 PM

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Haha, I told you a while back that my passion for fireworks rivals my love of snowstorms lol. Yes, permit is required although I doubt many obtain one. That was my main order, then I usually make a couple extra pickups whenever I make trips up there. I prepare months in advance and do it all by remote control now - makes for a much more enjoyable experience. The last few years have been picture perfect weather-wise. When was the last time you were up north?


That sounds like a phenomenal time and prob tops anyone I know who lights off fireworks. This is something up my alley and on my bucket list!

It's been years since I have been up north where you go. I normally head towards Castle Rock Lake area. I'd love to go on a fishing trip when the bite picks up later in the year towards early Autumn.

#84
Niko

Posted 08 July 2017 - 04:04 AM

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After yesterdays thunderstorms, the humidity has lowered and skies have become sunny with delightful temperatures. :D


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#85
jaster220

Posted 08 July 2017 - 04:27 AM

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@Jaster, this video coincides with your comment about your in-laws in Russia experiencing "the summer that never came"...

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=lss8uGrX0rE

 

Nice find Tom! Love how it's mentioned that these rare summer snows are headlines over there, but our fake news media continue to hit the ignore button! I followed a couple more of his vid's and dude thumps on the ICC's (aka Gore & Co.) 2014 prediction of "the end of snow" (LOL) for ski resorts while the mountain west is reeling under their own endless winter this June that I don't see/hear about in my news outlets either. No agenda?? Yeah, right


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#86
jaster220

Posted 08 July 2017 - 04:30 AM

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@ Jaster

 

Did you get any thunderstorms late last night?

 

Oops! Meant to post this yesterday Niko. Yeah, we caught the edge of the bad stuff that rolled onshore near Muskegon and tracked SE towards Jackson. Avoided the damage and power-out conditions though, which I'm thankful for. Don't need that part tbh

 


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#87
jaster220

Posted 08 July 2017 - 04:42 AM

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Yes sir-e. Here was one of my orders:

attachicon.gifIMG_0312.PNG

attachicon.gifIMG_0199.JPG

 

 

Haha, I told you a while back that my passion for fireworks rivals my love of snowstorms lol. Yes, permit is required although I doubt many obtain one. That was my main order, then I usually make a couple extra pickups whenever I make trips up there. I prepare months in advance and do it all by remote control now - makes for a much more enjoyable experience. The last few years have been picture perfect weather-wise. When was the last time you were up north?

 

DUDE!!  I thought I was bad back in the day! Are those legal where you set them off? Did you say in N Wisco? You order online direct from a wholesale outlet or something? What class is that anyhow?

 

Michigan only recently joined our neighboring states (OH & IN) in allowing Class C to be bought/sold and fired-off (on certain days around holidays). For most of my lifetime, you were illegal and risked some cranky person calling the cops on your fun. I remember buying when traveling to other states on vacation. It was like smuggled gold back then (well before the internet). Now it's everywhere, lol 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#88
BrianJK

Posted 08 July 2017 - 06:04 AM

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DUDE!! I thought I was bad back in the day! Are those legal where you set them off? Did you say in N Wisco? You order online direct from a wholesale outlet or something? What class is that anyhow?

Michigan only recently joined our neighboring states (OH & IN) in allowing Class C to be bought/sold and fired-off (on certain days around holidays). For most of my lifetime, you were illegal and risked some cranky person calling the cops on your fun. I remember buying when traveling to other states on vacation. It was like smuggled gold back then (well before the internet). Now it's everywhere, lol


So it's a bit of a gray area when it comes to legality. Fireworks are sold across nearly the entire state of Wisconsin, but permits are required to set them off. However, the state leaves it up to local municipalities as to whether or not they want to enforce it. I've been going up to Eagle River, WI for 30 years and everyone has their fun on the 4th - some (myself) more than others. In order to put on a show of that magnitude, I have to buy wholesale direct. Now that I do, I can never go back to retail. And I totally get what you mean about the smuggling part. I remember long ago crossing over the Indiana border and going to Sheltons and coming back with a trunk load. It was always such a relief once you made it back home, lol.
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#89
Tom

Posted 08 July 2017 - 06:59 AM

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So it's a bit of a gray area when it comes to legality. Fireworks are sold across nearly the entire state of Wisconsin, but permits are required to set them off. However, the state leaves it up to local municipalities as to whether or not they want to enforce it. I've been going up to Eagle River, WI for 30 years and everyone has their fun on the 4th - some (myself) more than others. In order to put on a show of that magnitude, I have to buy wholesale direct. Now that I do, I can never go back to retail. And I totally get what you mean about the smuggling part. I remember long ago crossing over the Indiana border and going to Sheltons and coming back with a trunk load. It was always such a relief once you made it back home, lol.

Sheltons!  Love that place...my brother and I used to always go there a few months before the holiday when prices were cheaper and take the trip into N IN.  BTW, Eagle River is such a beautiful place to experience the outdoors.  I'm itching to go back sometime soon.  My friend said he would want to go Muskey fishing later in the season.  One thing I would like to do is take a snowmobile trip up there during the winter.  Trails galore.


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#90
Tom

Posted 08 July 2017 - 07:42 AM

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I like this met's temp forecast map for the month of July.  He's basing it off of the current atmospheric ENSO conditions.  It jives with the current status of the drought going on in the Plains and the pattern going forward.

 

DENqiMQVoAQgECr.jpg



#91
Tom

Posted 08 July 2017 - 08:04 AM

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I've been waiting for CPC to release it's July SST CA seasonal outlook but it hasn't came out this month yet.  Wonder why?  I'll keep you guys posted when it does.

 

Meanwhile, while we are all enjoying the summer season, I'll take a minute and provide a sneak peak into next Autumn/Winter.  The latest NMME suite suggesting a very similar pattern to what happened last year.  Keep in mind, this model has a warm bias.

 

 

NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season3.png

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png

 

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season3.png

 

NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5.png

 

 

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season5.png

 

 

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season5.png



#92
jaster220

Posted 08 July 2017 - 09:31 AM

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I'll take a minute and provide a sneak peak into next Autumn/Winter.  The latest NMME suite suggesting a very similar pattern to what happened last year.

 

OMG! Shoot me now if we see anything similar to last winter :rolleyes:


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#93
jaster220

Posted 08 July 2017 - 09:33 AM

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@ Tom

 

Pssst.. that guy with the "never ending winter" youtube channel was touting how a Little Ice Age means warmer winters and colder summers.  :blink: :huh: Huh??


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#94
jaster220

Posted 08 July 2017 - 09:55 AM

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So it's a bit of a gray area when it comes to legality. Fireworks are sold across nearly the entire state of Wisconsin, but permits are required to set them off. However, the state leaves it up to local municipalities as to whether or not they want to enforce it. I've been going up to Eagle River, WI for 30 years and everyone has their fun on the 4th - some (myself) more than others. In order to put on a show of that magnitude, I have to buy wholesale direct. Now that I do, I can never go back to retail. And I totally get what you mean about the smuggling part. I remember long ago crossing over the Indiana border and going to Sheltons and coming back with a trunk load. It was always such a relief once you made it back home, lol.

Sheltons!  Love that place...my brother and I used to always go there a few months before the holiday when prices were cheaper and take the trip into N IN.  BTW, Eagle River is such a beautiful place to experience the outdoors.  I'm itching to go back sometime soon.  My friend said he would want to go Muskey fishing later in the season.  One thing I would like to do is take a snowmobile trip up there during the winter.  Trails galore.

 

 

By trunk full of smuggled gold, I meant this was truly rare stuff for a Michigander back in the day. Not sure when Sheltons started up but I don't remember seeing anything along the x-ways back in '90 when I drove via 94 out to Wyoming and found them for sale. Pretty certain I would not have bothered if they were available right across the state line in Indiana. And when I moved to S. Bend 20 yrs ago I'm not sure they were readily available then? Going back (pre-1990) you had to go to like TN to find them, at least for year-round outlets. I think March of '78 was the first time I bought in TN coming home from FL with my folks. Back then, even Class C was really potent stuff. A single firecracker could shred a hand. They passed that "max load" import law and fewer maimed people resulted. Prolly a good thing, LOL


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#95
Tom

Posted 08 July 2017 - 10:01 AM

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@ Tom

Pssst.. that guy with the "never ending winter" youtube channel was touting how a Little Ice Age means warmer winters and colder summers. :blink: :huh: Huh??

He may be talking about the Arctic regions. Not sure. High latitude blocking during low solar suggests warmer winters in the arctic.
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#96
Tom

Posted 08 July 2017 - 10:05 AM

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OMG! Shoot me now if we see anything similar to last winter :rolleyes:


If you take a look at the SST's in the NE PAC, it looks very similar to what happened last winter. That's going to be a critical player and something to pay attn to over the next few months as to how it evolves.
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#97
Tom

Posted 08 July 2017 - 10:42 AM

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The next 7 days look active for parts of the Midwest/Lakes region...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_28.png



#98
Tom

Posted 08 July 2017 - 10:47 AM

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Another sneak peak into the start of Winter...latest Euro Monthly showing a fast start to Winter???

 

December...

 

DEOTpcnXsAIwlbx.jpg



#99
Tom

Posted 08 July 2017 - 10:49 AM

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00z Euro suggesting a ton of energy available along the evolving heat dome this coming week...

 

DENjDmZVwAAZnHY.jpg



#100
Tom

Posted 08 July 2017 - 11:06 AM

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Several seasonal forecast updates coming this week:  CPC/JAMSTEC/JMA...should be interesting to see if the JAMSTEC maintains its     run-run colder winter outlook.  Curious to see what the latest EURO ENSO update will look like as well.  Alright, that's enough posting for now.  Enjoy the spectacular weather folks!


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