July 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Outstanding flooding going on in the northern burbs back home...

 

 

 

 

 

Moment, while swim out to my ride!

 

I wasn't expecting this much rain as all the high rez models were showing S WI getting creamed by the training storms.  Nature throws a curve ball!

 

More like a "spitter"

[Niko]

I was in a Flood Warning yesterday. Soil cannot withstand any more water. Any more rain will lead to flooding. Want to add that no severe weather has hit. So much for the "Slight" to almost "Enhanced" category level. Just heavy downpours and some lightning.

[Tom]

What a shot!  Courtesy @Barry Butler:

 

[Tom]

Devastating flooding still ongoing in Lake/Cook county along the Des Plaines River.  Some of the footage is just so sad to see all the places of business and homes completely flooded.  In my town, they have recently built up a 10ft wall a few years ago to prevent major flooding along parts of the river where the flooding can be the worst.  The river is supposed to crest just below the record (April '13) Sat-Sun and finally begin to recede on Monday.  

 

Thankfully, nature is cooperating as there is NO rain in the forecast and pleasant weather expected over the next 4 days.  In other news, Global surface temps according to the GFS (near real time data) is running near the 30-year mean.  Man, Antarctica looks brutal cold!

 

[Tom]

Euro weeklies still look wet through August...

 

[Niko]

Much betta day today. Less humid, more sunshine than clouds, drier air and etc and etc and etc. Well, you get the drift, dont ya!!??

[Tom]

Since July 1st, it has been very wet near the Lakes and some pockets of above normal precip in the Plains and Midwest which is normally the case in the Summer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

As one would expect, where it has been wet it also has been cooler...not much sustained heat so far this month, but will things change in the Plains???  I think so...IMO, folks in the Midwest/Lakes region stand a good chance to average near normal temp wise and may even be a touch below normal going forward to finish off the month.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Here are the latest maps out from the JMA monthlies thru October...

 

The JMA implies that the Monsoon season will continue to be active Aug-Sep.  For the month of Aug, near normal precip and slightly above normal temps are forecast from the Rockies and points east.  By Sep, a strong indication of a west coast ridge develops which may create a downstream trough in the East.  Alaska seems to cool off as the seasonal transition towards Autumn begins up that way.  Finally, Oct suggests the west coast ridge to continue with a similar pattern overall as the previous month.

 

 

[Tom]

This post may be geared towards those who live in the southern Plains/SW regions.  I took these maps off of the ECMWF site to get an idea of where temps may be heading as we get into the early Autumn/Winter period.  From what I can tell, the central CONUS stays cooler than both the west & east coasts.  Central CONUS trough???

 

SON...

 

 

 

OND...

 

 

 

NDJ...

 

 

 

 

Not sure if you can notice, but on the SST anomaly map below, there is a pocket of colder waters north of Hawaii and near the Baja, warm along the coast of Cali, warm along the east coast.  Could there be another winter with a dominant East Coast ridge??

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

The Monsoon finally made its way into the valley yesterday and with some vigor!  PHX picked up .31" of rain while locations just to the NW had up to 2" of rain.  They got clocked with strong winds and heavy rainfall.  The region is under a Flash Flood Watch for more storms today and tomorrow.  Juicy airmass is in place with DP's already up near 68F!  That's impressive for the desert regions.

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/psr/WxStory/WeatherStory1.png

 

 

 

 

From 2 PM MST this afternoon through Monday evening

* More numerous thunderstorms along with better moisture will move
into south central Arizona today through Monday. Heavy rainfall
with localized accumulations over one inch in a very short
amount of time may lead to flash flooding.

* Unbridged low water crossings may be impacted by flowing water
with road closures possible. Low lying areas may fill with
runoff water. Burn areas of southern Gila County will be
particularly susceptible to flash flooding.

 

I'm going to enjoy this pattern while I can.  Temps have cooled off as well with the moisture.  Highs only in the upper 90's today, low 90's tomorrow and possibly upper 80's on Tuesday??!!  #Awesomeness

[Tom]

00z EPS 6-10 day temp...

 

 

 

[Tom]

"Ring of Fire" pattern looks to ignite once again...same areas that have been targeted should be hit again...next 10 days

 

[OKwx2k4]

"Ring of Fire" pattern looks to ignite once again...same areas that have been targeted should be hit again...next 10 days

 

It had to be summer sometime down here. Looks like 3 probably pretty harsh weeks possible here but I don't really look for the worst of it to go too far into August.

[Tom]

It had to be summer sometime down here. Looks like 3 probably pretty harsh weeks possible here but I don't really look for the worst of it to go too far into August.

It's hard not to experience the heat and humidity down your way since your so close to the GOM.  One way or another nature will deliver it whether you like it or not!  Hey, look at the bright side...met Autumn is only about 46 days away!  Labor Day Weekend will be here quicker than you think.

[Tom]

Welcome to Chicago, lake clouds coming off the lake earlier today.  This shot could fool you to believe it's a late Autumn day...

 

[BrianJK]

Welcome to Chicago, lake clouds coming off the lake earlier today. This shot could fool you to believe it's a late Autumn day...

 

Nice. Is that from your flight in?

[Tom]

Nice. Is that from your flight in?

Hancock Tower Cam...

[OKwx2k4]

It's hard not to experience the heat and humidity down your way since your so close to the GOM. One way or another nature will deliver it whether you like it or not! Hey, look at the bright side...met Autumn is only about 46 days away! Labor Day Weekend will be here quicker than you think.

True. I'd rather get the warmer than average stuff out of the way before fall anyway so not disappointed to see the ridge really.

 

What I DON'T want to see though is a 6-8 week drought start here after all of the rainfall finally erased 2yr deficits. Looking forward to a really colorful autumn in the Ozarks for the first time in 3 autumns.

[NEJeremy]

This was a map for almost 10 days out but dear god, that was wrong. So much for a cool down. Tonight we're still at 87 with a heat index of 95 at 10p. This week is basically mid to upper 90s and heat indexes near 110 especially Wednesday and Thursday. Heading towards the climatological hottest time of the year in the next 10 days.

 

tmax.ge90-1.png

 

Also like seeing lots of blue in July.

 

gfs_T2ma_us_40.png

[Tom]

[Tom]

Outflow boundaries are building up new cells out in front of the main line...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/IWA/N0Q/IWA.N0Q.20170717.0443.gif

[OKwx2k4]

This was a map for almost 10 days out but dear god, that was wrong. So much for a cool down. Tonight we're still at 87 with a heat index of 95 at 10p. This week is basically mid to upper 90s and heat indexes near 110 especially Wednesday and Thursday. Heading towards the climatological hottest time of the year in the next 10 days.

 

 

Yeah. Couldn't stay cool through the entire summer. I'm not going to gripe about a few of weeks of summer after how spoiled I've been so far this year in my "micro-climate". Lol. My climo hottest 10 days of the year start right after yours so just ready to get this over with and on to fall.

[NEJeremy]

When did you finally hit 90 this summer?!

 

Yeah. Couldn't stay cool through the entire summer. I'm not going to gripe about a few of weeks of summer after how spoiled I've been so far this year in my "micro-climate". Lol. My climo hottest 10 days of the year start right after yours so just ready to get this over with and on to fall.

[Tom]

TWC has this video of the Flash Flood from Payson...

 

https://weather.com/news/news/arizona-flash-flood-deadly-swimming-hole

[Tom]

I remember NEJeremy mention he experienced a "heat burst" not long ago.  Low and behold, Chicago did the same!  Here's their write up:

 

http://www.weather.gov/lot/2017jul16_heatburst

[Tom]

The Monsoon season was predicted to be active months ago here in the SW.  It was a slow start, but it turned into high gear about 1-2 weeks ago in the mountains, but has since settled into the valley last week.  Already, PHX is above normal in the rainfall category and picked up 1.2" from last nights storms.  Wind gusts topped 60mph in the PHX metro area.  Lot's of tree damage all across the valley.  PHX avg's 1.1" or rain in the month of July.  I think it is safe to say we will add to that by month's end.  We are expecting more active weather later tonight and tomorrow.  Next week looks like another active week with sub normal temps.

 

With that being said, the Anticyclone has it's eyes on the Plains for the duration of this week and the "Ring of Fire" pattern looks impressive.  Doesn't that precip map tell the story where the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis's (LRC) storm track set up during the Autumn/Winter??  I remember watching system after system hit Wisconsin and MN.

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017071700/gfs-ens_z500aMean_us_3.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017071700/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_28.png

[OKwx2k4]

When did you finally hit 90 this summer?!

 

 

July 8th. Since then I'm at day 6 total @ or greater than 90.

 

If I get 30 days at or above 90 this year. I'll be shocked.

[Tom]

I like the trends in temps next week on both the Euro & GFS...cooler!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017071712/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_8.png

[Tom]

12z Euro's trends...6-10 Day

 

[james1976]

Out on the deck this evening grillin and chillin before i leave for Texas tomorrow. Locust are going crazy in my neighborhood! Is that normal for mid July? First time I've heard em this Summer.

[Niko]

Humidity and warmth returns starting today. Oh well, it is July!

[Minny_Weather]

This heat and humidity can go die in a hole.

[Tom]

This heat and humidity can go die in a hole.

Cali sounds good right about now? Oceanside...I'm feeling it here to 95F/65F

[NEJeremy]

It's going to be a pleasant couple of days:

 

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
CDT FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Omaha/Valley has issued an
Excessive Heat Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM Wednesday to
8 PM CDT Friday. The Excessive Heat Watch is no longer in effect.

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100
degrees combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s to upper 70s
would result in heat index values of 105 to 115 degrees each
afternoon. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the
mid to upper 70s.

[Tom]

It's going to be a pleasant couple of days:

 

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM

CDT FRIDAY...

 

The National Weather Service in Omaha/Valley has issued an

Excessive Heat Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM Wednesday to

8 PM CDT Friday. The Excessive Heat Watch is no longer in effect.

 

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100

degrees combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s to upper 70s

would result in heat index values of 105 to 115 degrees each

afternoon. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the

mid to upper 70s.

Yuk! Electric bill is not going to be bueno...

[BrianJK]

Send it this way please. Love summertime heat.

[Tom]

Finally, the CPC Long lead forecasts came out today which has been delayed about a couple weeks.  Nonetheless, it's advertising a rather interesting run for Autumn/Winter.  Before we get into those maps, here is what the rest of Summer has in store and the beginning of Autumn....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201706/cat2m_anom.0.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201706/caprec_anom.0.png

 

 

Let's roll into Autumn & Winter...

 

Very cold Russia/Siberia and what looks like a lot of blocking in North America...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201706/cat2m_anom.2.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201706/caprec_anom.2.png

 

 

 

 

Late Autumn/Early Winter...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201706/cat2m_anom.3.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201706/caprec_anom.3.png

[Niko]

Beautiful evening! Clear skies and muggy with temps @ 75F.

[bud2380]

Picked up a quarter inch tonight with a surprise area of storms popping up. Places just to my south and east picked up an inch or so, but I guess I'll take it

[Hawkeye]

A cluster of rain/storms popped this evening and moved through the CR/IC/QC area.  I picked up a nice 0.64".  IC got well over an inch.  I was just hoping for a couple tenths to fill my barrel, so this was a bonus.