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July 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Cali sounds good right about now? Oceanside...I'm feeling it here to 95F/65F

In Texas now, but heading back to LNK to look at apartments tomorrow. Not liking what I'm seeing in the excessive heat warning there, that's for sure. Especially with dews reaching the mid-70s tomorrow. Really wish I was back in Carlsbad.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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A mainly sunny day after morning clouds and fog. Temps reached the upper 80s. Very uncomfortable day being outdoors.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Heat and humidity remains put until the weekend. Drier air returns next week with temps in the 70s for highs and 50s for lows.....AHHHH, refreshing indeed. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It was another eventful evening and morning today back home.  2 rounds of soaking rains have hit the area and prompted the NWS to issue a Flood Advisory for most of Chicagoland; yet another Hydrologic Outlook for more heavy rains Fri-Sat...

 

 

 

 

 

Hydrologic OutlookHydrologic Outlook
ILC007-031-037-043-089-097-103-111-141-201-202100-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago IL
346 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Heavy rain producing thunderstorms will end by mid to late
morning over northern Illinois, but isolated storms are possible
again this afternoon and tonight. More widespread storms are
forecast Friday and especially Friday night. These storms will
likely be efficient rainfall producers. While there remains
modest uncertainty in placement of storms within the region from
Friday and Friday night, there is increasing signal that along and
north of Interstate 88 in northern Illinois and into Wisconsin
may be the most favored. Again on Saturday, there is a chance for
thunderstorms as well before drier air moves into the region.
Given wet antecedent conditions over the Des Plaines, Fox,
Kishwaukee, and north branch of the Chicago River basins, this
portion of northern Illinois is susceptible to additional flooding
if multiple rounds of heavy rainfall pan out.
 

 

 

This Ring of Fire Pattern isn't budging at all.  I'm fascinated at how persistent this active storm track has been since the summer season began.  It seems to be intensifying as summer rolls on.

 

Most of NE IL has received 1-3" of rain from the overnight storms...much more the farther NW you go, esp out towards RFD (3"+)

 

DFLtbAoXUAUgwrX.jpg

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The latest CPC Seasonal Outlooks came out today and have a warm look to close out Summer and head into Autumn.  The probability of the drought are likely to continue in the high Plains into August which is not good for farmers/crop in that region.  Monsoon season will continue to provide more soaking rains in the inter-mountain west/SW.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t14.2c.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p14.2c.gif

 

 

 

SON...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t02.2c.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p02.2c.gif

 

 

DJF...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t05.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p05.2c.gif

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Brutal evening last night. This was a report from one of the local airports in a suburb of Omaha.

 

19 18:55 S 13 G 17 10.00 Fair CLR 96 81 97 90 63% NA 119 29.91 NA

 

 

temp: 96 dewpoint: 81 heat index 119 :huh:

I don't even have anything to say about this...#ThinkingAboutWinter.....cool thoughts...

 

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/1/7/1389092548371/df545bb9-8987-428e-967c-b6f477c3ba1d-460x276.jpeg

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According to the 12z EPS, the Anticyclone looks to retrograde back west in the 6-10 Day...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017072012/ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_namer_6.png

 

"Ring of Fire" pattern looks to ramp up again middle/end of next week...not expecting any above normal temps in the longer range near the Lakes region...

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017072012/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_namer_11.png

 

 

Check out that Arctic temp anomaly...doesn't look like much melting over the next 2 weeks and by that time, we will be turning the page and begin the downward trend on average.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017072012/ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_namer_6.png

 

 

Arctic temps may test the 0C freezing line over the next couple weeks. Will it go below???

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

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Gorgeous day! Plenty of sun and not too humid, but still a little on the humid side with dews in the low ta mid 60s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This just in from NOAA for my area:

 

Air Quality Alert

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-220400-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-Including the cities of Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren,Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe102 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017...Air Quality Alert in effect for Friday July 21th...The Michigan Department of Environmental Quality has declaredFriday July 21th to be an action day for elevated levels of ozone.Pollutants are expected to be in the unhealthy for sensitive groupsrange.The action day is in effect for the following Michigan counties...St. Clair...Livingston...Oakland...Macomb...Washtenaw...Wayne...Lenawee and Monroe.People and businesses are urged to avoid activities which lead toozone formation. These activities include...refueling vehicles ortopping off when refueling, using gasoline powered lawn equipmentand using charcoal lighter fluid. Positive activities include...carpooling, biking to work, delaying or combining errands and usingwater based paints.It is recommended that active children and adults, and people withrespiratory diseases such as asthma, limit prolonged outdoorexertion.For further information, please see the Michigan Department ofEnvironmental Quality page at http://www.deqmiair.org

We need a strong, powerful CF to shake the air a bit in the atmosphere and dry us out.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Sitting on my patio deck, watching a slow moving storm blossom a suburb to my south near Mesa, AZ. Gosh, how I love summer time thunderstorms ⛈!!! It's a Nice electric storm with some deep penetrating claps of thunder.

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Some members in E IA are going to cash in as those storms outflow boundaries are sparking new development near CR. The storm near DSM heading due east isn't losing strength. Farmers should get some beneficial rains.

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Some members in E IA are going to cash in as those storms outflow boundaries are sparking new development near CR. The storm near DSM heading due east isn't losing strength. Farmers should get some beneficial rains.

 

Yep, the outflow boundary from the southeast Iowa cells gradually lifted north, helping convection bubble up across the area.  The initial bubbling dumped over an inch of rain on the far north side of CR, while I got stuck in a relative dry pocket in between better cells.  The big line from central Iowa was in weakening mode as it passed through CR, but I managed to accumulate 0.78" total.  There are some 2" totals from Hiawatha over to Marion.

 

It's unclear if tonight's action will bring a tail this far south or not.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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woo hoo!! Made it to 100 degrees(heat index 110) at the airport here in Omaha. First time hitting 100, since 2013.

Millard(suburb) is at 101/dewpt 76/ heat index 116.

 

Side note, I will be in Chicago tomorrow until Tuesday visiting family, but am also going to the Cubs/Cards game Sunday night in the bleachers. Can't wait! Weather doesn't look too bad for the game.

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The western Iowa convection hasn't done much so far, but the SPC/WPC are expecting things to blow up this evening along hw30 from Iowa to Chicago.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/images/mcd0525.gif

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The western Iowa convection hasn't done much so far, but the SPC/WPC are expecting things to blow up this evening along hw30 from Iowa to Chicago.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/images/mcd0525.gif

I'm hearing the 12z Euro has another very good environment to create another strong round of storms next week Thu-Fri.  IA & C IL get the brunt of the action.

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Muggy weather continues, but no storms. Hopefully, I gets some by Saturday. Drier air follows late Sunday into next week.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GEFS starting to really look cooler in the extended range to close out the month and open August. I think a lot of those to the south and in the Plain will gladly take some cooler weather.

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_12.png

I just need a little cooldown and some drier air. Mostly just drier air. Humidity levels have been outrageous. Having to drink around an ounce of water per pound of body weight right now each day to stay hydrated. I hate summer.

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More storms have missed SEMI once again, wow, just wow. Just a few drops fell and that was it. :wacko:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Seasonal temps expected in the 6-10...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

 

 

August looks to open amplified...western ridge/eastern trough...fits the LRC...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

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I just need a little cooldown and some drier air. Mostly just drier air. Humidity levels have been outrageous. Having to drink around an ounce of water per pound of body weight right now each day to stay hydrated. I hate summer.

I think your worst of summer heat and humidity is over after this coming week. August ain't looking to shabby down by you.

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Just received a downpour! It was real heavy, but lasted only a couple of minutes. Sun came out and its real soupy out there now. Come on CF, pass by my area already. Need some drier air, along with a fresh breeze outta the NNW.  :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Happy Sunday!  For the most part, nature is delivering a refreshing airmass for those out in the Plains and Upper Midwest.  Can't believe we are entering the last week of July.  I went ahead and started a thread for our last month of met Summer:

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1599-august-2017-observations-and-discussion/

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A look back in history on today's date, when MDW recorded its all-time high of 109F as Chicago endured it's hottest heat wave ever.  Can you imagine if this type of extensive heat would have hit during our current era of media "hype"???  I thought July 2012 was bad, but D**n, this would be killer.

 

feature07232017.jpg?quality=85&strip=all

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Turned out to be a nice day, although, a tad humid. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's currently 78F with a 72F DP, the soupiest air mass of the season out here.  Currently experiencing some rumbles of thunder and another wave of torrential rains.  I'm finally heading back to Chi tonight and looking forward to enjoying the rest of summer in the Midwest.

 

In other news, today, we have reached 50 days of no sunspots and sitting at a 6-day streak...already surpassed last year's totals and approaching 2010's peak.

 

 

 

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 6 days
2017 total: 50 days (24%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
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Your prob going to be hearing about all the flooding that is occurring in the valley today in the media. Canals are over flowing and causing roads to close all around the east valley. It almost feels like a winter/spring day, minus the humidity. Cloudy and dreary! Haven't seen a day like this all year since I've been here (April 1st).

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Significant rains looking possible Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Nothing torrential though, so hopefully it will not dramatically impact ongoing flooding.  

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017072412/078/qpf_024h.us_mw.png

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