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Summer forecast contest: Throwback to 2016

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#1
Phil

Posted 27 June 2017 - 03:28 PM

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Real numbers to critique!

Same cities, format, and timescale as last year's contest.

Tie-breaker: Warmest low @ PDX.

Deadline: July 1st @ midnight PDT.

J/A/S @:

SEA: 0.5/1.0/2.5
PDX: -0.5/0.5/1.5
OLM: -0.5/0.0/1.5
EUG: 0.0/1.0/2.0
DCA: 2.5/4.0/3.0

PDX Low: 68
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#2
DareDuck

Posted 27 June 2017 - 04:05 PM

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SEA: 1.3,/1.1/2.6
PDX: 1.1/0.9/2.2
OLM: 0.9/0.6/1.8
EUG: 1.0/0.5/1.9
DCA: 2.2/3.0/2.8

BDN (Bend) 1.4/1.0/1.8

PDX low: 67

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#3
Jesse

Posted 27 June 2017 - 04:22 PM

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SEA: 1.4/1.5/2.4

PDX: 1.1/1.5/1.9

OLM: 1.0/1.2/1.8

EUG: 1.9/2.0/2.0

DCA: 0.5/-0.5/1.0

PDX low: 66

#4
TT-SEA

Posted 27 June 2017 - 06:57 PM

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Real numbers to critique!

Same cities, format, and timescale as last year's contest.

Tie-breaker: Warmest low @ PDX.

Deadline: July 1st @ midnight PDT.

J/A/S @:

SEA: 0.5/1.0/2.5
PDX: -0.5/0.5/1.5
OLM: -0.5/0.0/1.5
EUG: 0.0/1.0/2.0
DCA: 2.5/4.0/3.0

PDX Low: 68

 

 

So SEA will be above normal the rest of the summer?   And every month from May - September above normal?



#5
BLI snowman

Posted 27 June 2017 - 07:11 PM

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PDX: 1.9/7.8/-0.2

SEA: 2.1/8.3/0.3

OLM: 1.1/6.4/-0.4

EUG: 0.7/5.8/-1.7

DCA: 2.2/3.6/4.9

 

PDX's warmest low: 76 on 8/22


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#6
Phil

Posted 27 June 2017 - 07:41 PM

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So SEA will be above normal the rest of the summer? And every month from May - September above normal?


I'm factoring in the hotspot. :P
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#7
TT-SEA

Posted 27 June 2017 - 07:50 PM

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I'm factoring in the hotspot. :P

 

Why is DC always running way warmer than normal?  



#8
Phil

Posted 27 June 2017 - 07:59 PM

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Why is DC always running way warmer than normal?


Another hotspot. DCA has become SEA on steroids. Especially at night. Plus the pattern this summer is clearly a warm one for this area.

https://weather.com/...nday/l/DCA:9:US

5-minute observations below. Even with record-low dewpoints this week, we've struggled to drop below 70*F at night.

http://www.wrh.noaa....xt.php?sid=KDCA
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#9
Phil

Posted 27 June 2017 - 08:07 PM

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If you think SEA is bad, get a load of this. That huge trough we've had has produced a bunch of warm departures and one or two negative departure days.

http://w2.weather.go...dex.php?wfo=lwx
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#10
TT-SEA

Posted 27 June 2017 - 09:24 PM

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If you think SEA is bad, get a load of this. That huge trough we've had has produced a bunch of warm departures and one or two negative departure days.

http://w2.weather.go...dex.php?wfo=lwx

 

Interesting.   You should be used to troughs failing to produce below normal temps.  :)



#11
wx_statman

Posted 27 June 2017 - 10:26 PM

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My amateur take on what we'll see for JAS in Portland:

 

1) A slightly below average July with no major heat waves

 

2) A tossup for August, best chance for another 100+ heat wave

 

3) A warmer than average Sept, but not by much

 

I know I'm not playing by the rules of the contest, but this is what I'm thinking. 


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#12
Kayla

Posted 28 June 2017 - 08:02 AM

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If you think SEA is bad, get a load of this. That huge trough we've had has produced a bunch of warm departures and one or two negative departure days.

http://w2.weather.go...dex.php?wfo=lwx

 

Couple of -6 departures isn't all that bad though! Was more surprised to see how dry its been there this month.


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 11.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 7.0"

Coldest high: 36.1º
Coldest low: 18.0º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#13
DareDuck

Posted 28 June 2017 - 10:11 AM

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Couple of -6 departures isn't all that bad though! Was more surprised to see how dry its been there this month.


Yea 6 days out of 27 above 90 and a 2.4 departure doesn't seem all that outrageous. Still too warm for my liking anyways.
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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#14
Phil

Posted 28 June 2017 - 11:29 AM

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Yea 6 days out of 27 above 90 and a 2.4 departure doesn't seem all that outrageous. Still too warm for my liking anyways.


DCA actually sees fewer 90+ days than most places in June thanks to the cooler water. They often see more in September than in June for the same reason (warmer water).
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#15
Phil

Posted 28 June 2017 - 11:30 AM

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Interesting. You should be used to troughs failing to produce below normal temps. :)


Feel free to throw your hat into the ring. :)
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#16
TT-SEA

Posted 28 June 2017 - 01:23 PM

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J/A/S @:

SEA: 1.1/2.1/1.0

PDX: -0.3/1.8/1.7
OLM: -0.1/1.9/0.9
EUG: 0.8/2.3/1.9
DCA: 2.2/2.8/1.8

PDX Low: 67


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#17
Deweydog

Posted 28 June 2017 - 06:17 PM

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0.6/0.3/2.4
0.8/-0.1/2.2
0.5/-0.7/1.9
1.1/-0.4/2.9
4/3/0

65

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#18
DareDuck

Posted 28 June 2017 - 07:42 PM

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0.6/0.3/2.4
0.8/-0.1/2.2
0.5/-0.7/1.9
1.1/-0.4/2.9
4/3/0

65


So average to coolish August and warm September? Any reasoning or just a guess?

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#19
Front Ranger

Posted 29 June 2017 - 07:46 AM

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I'll just stick with what I put here: http://theweatherfor...17-predictions/


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#20
Phil

Posted 29 June 2017 - 09:26 AM

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I'll just stick with what I put here: http://theweatherfor...17-predictions/


So, you're not going to put actual numbers up?

#noballs
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#21
Front Ranger

Posted 29 June 2017 - 09:52 AM

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So, you're not going to put actual numbers up?

#noballs

 

Eh. We're already a month into summer.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#22
Jesse

Posted 29 June 2017 - 09:53 AM

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Eh. We're already a month into summer.


The forecast is for JAS.

Boc boc boc
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#23
Phil

Posted 29 June 2017 - 09:55 AM

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The forecast is for JAS.

Boc boc boc


Yep. He leads a charade against my forecast, yet refuses to give numbers of his own. Such a wuss.
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#24
Front Ranger

Posted 29 June 2017 - 10:19 AM

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The forecast is for JAS.

Boc boc boc

 

Yep. My thoughts through September are in the summer predictions thread.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#25
Phil

Posted 29 June 2017 - 10:33 AM

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Yep. My thoughts through September are in the summer predictions thread.


Pathetic.

Either put numbers up, or don't critique my forecasts again.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#26
Jesse

Posted 29 June 2017 - 10:37 AM

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Yep. My thoughts through September are in the summer predictions thread.


Hard numbers are easier to grade. Also makes it more difficult for a spinmaster such as yourself to make a wrong forecast seem right. ;)
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#27
Front Ranger

Posted 29 June 2017 - 10:51 AM

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Pathetic.

Either put numbers up, or don't critique my forecasts again.

 

:lol:


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#28
Front Ranger

Posted 29 June 2017 - 10:52 AM

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Hard numbers are easier to grade

 

When was the last time a contest was graded?


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#29
Phil

Posted 29 June 2017 - 10:52 AM

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When was the last time a contest was graded?


I'll grade it, don't worry about that.

Please put up some numbers.
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#30
Jesse

Posted 29 June 2017 - 10:56 AM

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When was the last time a contest was graded?


If it matters so much to you you should step up to the plate once and awhile. I've graded several.
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#31
Front Ranger

Posted 29 June 2017 - 02:47 PM

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I prefer to stick with the summer forecasts made before the summer pattern became established.

 

Jared

 

Attached File  jared.png   176.45KB   0 downloads

 

Phil

 

Attached File  Phil.png   420.19KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#32
Phil

Posted 29 June 2017 - 02:51 PM

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June to date. Not exactly a good call by either of us across the lower 48.
01EE353D-62B3-4E02-A8FB-B15320FFE453_zps
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#33
Phil

Posted 29 June 2017 - 03:05 PM

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I prefer to stick with the summer forecasts made before the summer pattern became established.


You scared, son? What's preventing you from laying numbers down? This is a forecast for J/A/S, not J/J/A.

You're a coward. From this point forward, I'm going to relentlessly pick apart everything you post. Every slip up, every contradiction, every sleight of hand. Everything. I'm going to make this forum a living nightmare for you until you drop your little act. :)
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#34
wx_statman

Posted 29 June 2017 - 03:11 PM

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You scared, son? What's preventing you from laying numbers down? This is a forecast for J/A/S, not J/J/A.

You're a coward. From this point forward, I'm going to relentlessly pick apart everything you post. Every slip up, every contradiction, every sleight of hand. Everything. I'm going to make this forum a living nightmare for you until you drop the act. :)

 

Why? He's not a professional in either climate science or meteorology. He can say whatever he wants. 

 

It's up to you to either engage on scientific grounds, or ignore. Taking the low road won't get you closer to whatever goals you have....


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#35
BLI snowman

Posted 29 June 2017 - 03:23 PM

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Summer temperature anomalies are deadly serious business.


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#36
wx_statman

Posted 29 June 2017 - 03:26 PM

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Summer temperature anomalies are deadly serious business.

 

Indeed. There is rumored Mafia involvement as well. 



#37
Phil

Posted 29 June 2017 - 03:26 PM

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Why? He's not a professional in either climate science or meteorology. He can say whatever he wants.

It's up to you to either engage on scientific grounds, or ignore. Taking the low road won't get you closer to whatever goals you have....


You're right, but the circumstances here made me reconsider that line of thinking. Jared loves to nitpick and critique other forecasts, yet refuses to provide his own numbers. It's ridiculous. This is a microcosm of the larger issue(s) people seem to have with him here. Talk to Jesse about the stunts this guy pulls on a regular basis. It's absurd.

I honestly wouldn't care if he hadn't spent the last several years perpetually spinning my words in an attempt to discredit my forecasts and ideas (whether they were correct or not), simply to cover his own rampant failures. I haven't returned the favor (attacked his forecasts) yet, but I think that's going to change going forward.

He also put me on mod-preview back in January 2013, after his call for an Arctic blast imploded horrifically. He then proceeded to attack me while I couldn't respond. I haven't forgotten that one, but still elected not to return the favor up. Believe me, I had plenty of openings to attack the guy, but refrained from doing so. Again, that will no longer be the case going forward.
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#38
wx_statman

Posted 29 June 2017 - 03:38 PM

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You're right, but the circumstances here made me reconsider that line of thinking. Jared loves to nitpick and critique other forecasts, yet refuses to provide his own numbers. It's ridiculous. This is a microcosm of the larger issue(s) people seem to have with him here. Talk to Jesse about the stunts this guy pulls on a regular basis. It's absurd.

I honestly wouldn't care if he hadn't spent the last several years perpetually spinning my words in an attempt to discredit my forecasts and ideas (whether they were correct or not), simply to cover his own rampant failures. I haven't returned the favor (attacked his forecasts) yet, but I think that's going to change going forward.

He also put me on mod-preview back in January 2013, after his call for an Arctic blast imploded horrifically. He then proceeded to attack me while I couldn't respond. I haven't forgotten that one, but still elected not to return the favor up. Believe me, I had plenty of openings to attack the guy, but refrained from doing so. Again, that will no longer be the case going forward.

 

So you have some history I wasn't aware of. Still...I don't know what you're going to get out of this.  :lol:



#39
Phil

Posted 29 June 2017 - 03:41 PM

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So you have some history I wasn't aware of. Still...I don't know what you're going to get out of this. :lol:


I'll get nothing out of it. If anything, I'll probably cool off and forget about the whole thing in a few weeks.

Still, I don't like the guy.
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#40
Front Ranger

Posted 29 June 2017 - 03:48 PM

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I'll grade it, don't worry about that.

Please put up some numbers.

 

wxstatman didn't put up any numbers. You seemed fine with that.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#41
Front Ranger

Posted 29 June 2017 - 03:54 PM

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You scared, son? What's preventing you from laying numbers down? This is a forecast for J/A/S, not J/J/A.

 

This contest is kinda boring to me now, to be honest. 

 

As far as I know, I was the only one here who went on record for a warm PNW summer back in May. Now that we've seen a warm June, literally everyone in this thread - yourself included - is going warm overall for the rest of the summer. Obviously, if I were to put down numbers now I'd just be somewhere in the middle of the pack of guesses (and watch, we'd all end up wrong as JAS turns cool).

 

I participated in last summer's contest. But I hadn't made an actual summer outlook in 2016.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#42
Front Ranger

Posted 29 June 2017 - 03:56 PM

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You're right, but the circumstances here made me reconsider that line of thinking. Jared loves to nitpick and critique other forecasts, yet refuses to provide his own numbers. It's ridiculous. This is a microcosm of the larger issue(s) people seem to have with him here. Talk to Jesse about the stunts this guy pulls on a regular basis. It's absurd.

 

This is false. I've gone on record with my own numbers and forecasts many times on this forum.

 

And it's not "nitpicking" to point out when you're calling a non-troughy month troughy.  :rolleyes:


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#43
Front Ranger

Posted 29 June 2017 - 04:00 PM

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He also put me on mod-preview back in January 2013, after his call for an Arctic blast imploded horrifically. He then proceeded to attack me while I couldn't respond. I haven't forgotten that one, but still elected not to return the favor up. Believe me, I had plenty of openings to attack the guy, but refrained from doing so. Again, that will no longer be the case going forward.

 

More false accusations, Phil. This is pure silliness. I never once put anyone on mod preview because of anything like that. 

 

You were put on mod preview multiple times by multiple mods because of various infractions, but we don't need to get into the past.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#44
Phil

Posted 29 June 2017 - 04:02 PM

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wxstatman didn't put up any numbers. You seemed fine with that.


He hasn't spent the entire year nitpicking and critiquing others' forecasts. Unlike you.

I wouldn't care, otherwise.
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#45
wx_statman

Posted 29 June 2017 - 04:02 PM

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wxstatman didn't put up any numbers. You seemed fine with that.

 

I put up some numbers. 


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#46
Phil

Posted 29 June 2017 - 04:03 PM

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This contest is kinda boring to me now, to be honest.

As far as I know, I was the only one here who went on record for a warm summer in the PNW back in May. Now that we've seen a warm June, literally everyone in this thread - yourself included - is going warm overall for the rest of the summer. Obviously, if I were to put down numbers now I'd just be somewhere in the middle of the pack of guesses (and watch, we'd all end up wrong as JAS turns cool).

I participated in last summer's contest. But I hadn't made an actual summer outlook in 2016.


Lol, are you trying to defend your honor or something? :lol:

Throw your hat in the ring and I'll forget about this.
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#47
Front Ranger

Posted 29 June 2017 - 04:05 PM

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My amateur take on what we'll see for JAS in Portland:

 

1) A slightly below average July with no major heat waves

 

2) A tossup for August, best chance for another 100+ heat wave

 

3) A warmer than average Sept, but not by much

 

I know I'm not playing by the rules of the contest, but this is what I'm thinking. 

 

 

I put up some numbers. 

 

:huh:

 

Where? These aren't hard numbers, like what Phil is demanding from me. I wrote my takes in the summer forecast thread for each month, as far as what I expected for the PNW.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#48
Phil

Posted 29 June 2017 - 04:05 PM

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More false accusations, Phil. This is pure silliness. I never once put anyone on mod preview because of anything like that.

You were put on mod preview multiple times by multiple mods because of various infractions, but we don't need to get into the past.


Don't even try. You and I both know why you placed me on mod-preview that month. :)
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#49
Front Ranger

Posted 29 June 2017 - 04:12 PM

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Lol, are you trying to defend your honor or something? :lol:

Throw your hat in the ring and I'll forget about this.

 

I threw my hat in the ring with you in May (upon your request), and now you're trying to forget about that.  :)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#50
wx_statman

Posted 29 June 2017 - 04:17 PM

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:huh:

 

Where? These aren't hard numbers, like what Phil is demanding from me. I wrote my takes in the summer forecast thread for each month, as far as what I expected for the PNW.

 

100 is a number.  :lol:

 

I know, I didn't play by the rules. Forecasting isn't my strength.