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Summer forecast contest: Throwback to 2016

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#51
Phil

Posted 29 June 2017 - 10:24 PM

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I threw my hat in the ring with you in May (upon your request), and now you're trying to forget about that. :)


I don't want to forget about anything. You were just as wrong (regarding the pattern) as me. At least these would be tangible numbers, rather than vague descriptions subject to spin.

So..once a coward, always a coward?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#52
DareDuck

Posted 30 June 2017 - 08:08 AM

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I don't want to forget about anything. You were just as wrong (regarding the pattern) as me. At least these would be tangible numbers, rather than vague descriptions subject to spin.

So..once a coward, always a coward?


You're the worst...

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History: 

2017/2018: 1"

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: .2"

 

Total: 1.7"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter temps

Lowest min: 9F on 12/9, 12/10, 12/22

Lowest max: 23F on 12/24

Lows < 32: 62

Highs < 32: 9


#53
Phil

Posted 30 June 2017 - 10:07 AM

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You're the worst...


Thanks. ❤️
  • DareDuck likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#54
Kayla

Posted 30 June 2017 - 02:51 PM

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I'd love to contribute towards this contest but I'm not sure I'd be able to keep up with an ego driven contest.

 

Whatever happened to a friendly and fun summer forecast contest that doesn't have a hidden agenda for one certain individual??


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#55
Phil

Posted 30 June 2017 - 03:07 PM

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I'd love to contribute towards this contest but I'm not sure I'd be able to keep up with an ego driven contest.

Whatever happened to a friendly and fun summer forecast contest that doesn't have a hidden agenda for one certain individual??


This thread was started in good faith, so I honestly apologize for derailing it. Like last summer, it's all in good fun.

The issue I'm having with Jared is very long-running, and irrelevant to this thread, so I'll try to keep that drama out of here going forward.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#56
Kayla

Posted 30 June 2017 - 08:54 PM

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SEA: 2.1/-0.2/1.0

PDX: 1.8/-0.9/0.7

OLM: 1.1/-1.2/0.2

EUG: 1.9/-0.8/0.5

DCA: 1.1/3.8/1.8

 

BZN (Bozeman) 3.1/-2.3/0.8

 

PDX low: 67 


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#57
Phil

Posted 03 July 2017 - 02:52 PM

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Have all the guesses in excel. Good luck everyone!
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#58
BLI snowman

Posted 31 July 2017 - 10:48 PM

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PDX: 1.9/7.8/-0.2

SEA: 2.1/8.3/0.3

OLM: 1.1/6.4/-0.4

EUG: 0.7/5.8/-1.7

DCA: 2.2/3.6/4.9

 

PDX's warmest low: 76 on 8/22

 

I win.


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#59
wx_statman

Posted 31 July 2017 - 11:23 PM

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My amateur take on what we'll see for JAS in Portland:

 

1) A slightly below average July with no major heat waves

 

2) A tossup for August, best chance for another 100+ heat wave

 

3) A warmer than average Sept, but not by much

 

I know I'm not playing by the rules of the contest, but this is what I'm thinking. 

 

I like the general progression so far. 


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#60
DareDuck

Posted 01 August 2017 - 05:08 PM

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I win.


What was July for those stations?

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History: 

2017/2018: 1"

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: .2"

 

Total: 1.7"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter temps

Lowest min: 9F on 12/9, 12/10, 12/22

Lowest max: 23F on 12/24

Lows < 32: 62

Highs < 32: 9


#61
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 05:47 PM

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What was July for those stations?


Using the F-6 tables with the 30 year normal, it looks like:

PDX: 0.8
SEA: 1.5
EUG: 0.7
OLM: 1.0
DCA: 1.9
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#62
DareDuck

Posted 01 August 2017 - 06:15 PM

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Using the F-6 tables with the 30 year normal, it looks like:

PDX: 0.8
SEA: 1.5
EUG: 0.7
OLM: 1.0
DCA: 1.9

Thanks. I was +.3, -.2, -.3, -.1 respectively. Even DCA just +.3. Slightly cool at most stations except PDX. Not bad though.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History: 

2017/2018: 1"

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: .2"

 

Total: 1.7"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter temps

Lowest min: 9F on 12/9, 12/10, 12/22

Lowest max: 23F on 12/24

Lows < 32: 62

Highs < 32: 9


#63
Jesse

Posted 02 August 2017 - 06:23 AM

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Using the F-6 tables with the 30 year normal, it looks like:

PDX: 0.8
SEA: 1.5
EUG: 0.7
OLM: 1.0
DCA: 1.9


I think my guesses were closer overall.

#64
Phil

Posted 02 August 2017 - 07:20 AM

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I'll post the excel tables today or tomorrow. So far Jesse is winning overall but I haven't finished everyone's calculations yet.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#65
BLI snowman

Posted 02 August 2017 - 07:43 AM

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I think my guesses were closer overall.

 

That August forecast (and the region) are going up in flames.


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#66
wx_statman

Posted 25 September 2017 - 03:54 PM

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My amateur take on what we'll see for JAS in Portland:

 

1) A slightly below average July with no major heat waves

 

2) A tossup for August, best chance for another 100+ heat wave

 

3) A warmer than average Sept, but not by much

 

I know I'm not playing by the rules of the contest, but this is what I'm thinking. 

 

Overall, I like how the general progression turned out. 



#67
DareDuck

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:49 AM

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Will this one be scored?

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History: 

2017/2018: 1"

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: .2"

 

Total: 1.7"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter temps

Lowest min: 9F on 12/9, 12/10, 12/22

Lowest max: 23F on 12/24

Lows < 32: 62

Highs < 32: 9


#68
Phil

Posted 01 October 2017 - 05:53 PM

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Will this one be scored?


Yeah, sorry. My mind has been all over the place lately.

I'll score it this week. I already have July and August done.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#69
DareDuck

Posted 01 October 2017 - 09:55 PM

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Yeah, sorry. My mind has been all over the place lately.

I'll score it this week. I already have July and August done.


No worries didn't expect it scored on Oct. 1st. Just hoping this wasn't another unscored contest.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History: 

2017/2018: 1"

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: .2"

 

Total: 1.7"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter temps

Lowest min: 9F on 12/9, 12/10, 12/22

Lowest max: 23F on 12/24

Lows < 32: 62

Highs < 32: 9


#70
Phil

Posted 01 October 2017 - 09:59 PM

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No worries didn't expect it scored on Oct. 1st. Just hoping this wasn't another unscored contest.


Haha, yeah we've had too many of those. This one will definitely be scored.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#71
DareDuck

Posted 08 October 2017 - 02:06 PM

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Haha, yeah we've had too many of those. This one will definitely be scored.


Any guess as to when you'll score this one?

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History: 

2017/2018: 1"

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: .2"

 

Total: 1.7"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter temps

Lowest min: 9F on 12/9, 12/10, 12/22

Lowest max: 23F on 12/24

Lows < 32: 62

Highs < 32: 9


#72
Phil

Posted 08 October 2017 - 02:20 PM

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Any guess as to when you'll score this one?


Apologies, my brain has been all over the place lately. I'll try to finish it tonight.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#73
Phil

Posted 12 October 2017 - 08:04 PM

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Update: Halfway done. Will definitely finish over the weekend.
  • DareDuck likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#74
Phil

Posted 16 October 2017 - 12:09 PM

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Finished the calculations last night. Will post when I get back to my computer tonight.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#75
GHweatherChris

Posted 18 October 2017 - 08:20 PM

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???? I didn't have a horse in the race but.... I am going to ask, Phil, where are these results you said were done with and you would post the night of the 16th and have not? You have been posting regularly in other threads since then....

#76
Phil

Posted 18 October 2017 - 08:22 PM

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I was just about to post this. I haven't been home in two days so I'm not near my computer at the moment. I'll be home tomorrow evening.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph