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July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#1
BLI snowman

Posted 01 July 2017 - 12:00 AM

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Follow all the latest news on this record hot summer here for the next 31 days!



#2
wx_statman

Posted 01 July 2017 - 02:01 AM

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Attached is the composite heights anomaly expected for this July-August. 

 

Just kidding! Bonus points if anyone knows what day this reanalysis is from. Hint: its relatively recent. 

 

This the most extreme ridge that I've seen to anchor itself directly over northwestern OR, in any time of year. 

Attached Files



#3
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2017 - 08:01 AM

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Statman is that late July 2009?

#4
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2017 - 08:03 AM

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Nice marine layer this morning. Seems like we are having no trouble getting marine layer days this summer at least.

#5
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2017 - 09:34 AM

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SEA ended up at +2.0 for June.   There was measureable rain on only 6 out of 30 days... precip ended up just slightly below normal.  

 

BLI also had +2.0.

 

PDX finished with +1.8 and was drier than normal.  

 

OLM was colder as usual with +1.3

 

Basically the entire Western US was warmer than normal for June (this is through 6/29 and will be a little warmer when yesterday is included):

 

west_june.gif



#6
stuffradio

Posted 01 July 2017 - 10:20 AM

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Happy Canada day to my fellow Canadians on here!


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#7
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2017 - 10:24 AM

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Happy Canada day to my fellow Canadians on here!

 

 

Looks gorgeous for all of you... the marine layer never made it up that far north leaving you with a perfect day.   :)


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#8
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2017 - 10:44 AM

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I could be wrong... but the upcoming pattern this week looks humid to me.  

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png



#9
Deweydog

Posted 01 July 2017 - 10:47 AM

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I could be wrong... but the upcoming pattern this week looks humid to me.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png


Looks normal.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#10
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2017 - 10:48 AM

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Looks normal.

 

Warm with varying amounts of marine influence.



#11
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 July 2017 - 10:49 AM

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Looks gorgeous for all of you... the marine layer never made it up that far north leaving you with a perfect day. :)

Crystal clear but you can feel the marine air. Running 10+ degrees behind yesterday.

#12
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 July 2017 - 10:51 AM

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SEA ended up at +2.0 for June. There was measureable rain on only 6 out of 30 days... precip ended up just slightly below normal.

BLI also had +2.0.

PDX finished with +1.8 and was drier than normal.

OLM was colder as usual with +1.3

Basically the entire Western US was warmer than normal for June (this is through 6/29 and will be a little warmer when yesterday is included):

west_june.gif

Waiting on yesterday's data, but Shawnigan Lake looks around +1.1F.

#13
wx_statman

Posted 01 July 2017 - 11:37 AM

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Statman is that late July 2009?

 

Nope. The 522 heights in AK are a clue that this was not during JJA. 

 

I haven't seen a JJA ridge this sexy in all of the reanalyses I've looked. Those tend to be less "squeezed"-looking with the more relaxed thermal gradients. Much broader areas of height increases with the greatest sigmas to the north. July 2009 is a good example:

Attached Files



#14
James Jones

Posted 01 July 2017 - 11:45 AM

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Attached is the composite heights anomaly expected for this July-August. 

 

Just kidding! Bonus points if anyone knows what day this reanalysis is from. Hint: its relatively recent. 

 

This the most extreme ridge that I've seen to anchor itself directly over northwestern OR, in any time of year. 

Is that May 2008?


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#15
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2017 - 11:49 AM

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Yeah the lower height elsewhere should have been a giveaway.

October 2003?

#16
wx_statman

Posted 01 July 2017 - 12:01 PM

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Is that May 2008?

 

We got a winner!!



#17
wx_statman

Posted 01 July 2017 - 12:01 PM

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Yeah the lower height elsewhere should have been a giveaway.

October 2003?

 

Good guess. That one had even more impressive heights offshore (600+ dm) on 10/26. 


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#18
Deweydog

Posted 01 July 2017 - 12:04 PM

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Yeah the lower height elsewhere should have been a giveaway.

October 2003?


I was thinking that, but that ridge was even stronger.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#19
James Jones

Posted 01 July 2017 - 12:06 PM

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We got a winner!!

 

Nice. Not sure whether I should feel proud of myself, or embarrassed for being such a nerd.  :lol:


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#20
wx_statman

Posted 01 July 2017 - 12:07 PM

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I was thinking that, but that ridge was even stronger.

 

Yeah.

Attached Files


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#21
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2017 - 12:08 PM

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I was thinking that, but that ridge was even stronger.


Yup, just not directly centered over us.

#22
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2017 - 12:11 PM

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January 2009 was my second guess. :P

#23
Phil

Posted 01 July 2017 - 12:12 PM

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Wouldn't have thought it was a Niña spring looking at that pattern. Interesting.
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#24
Phil

Posted 01 July 2017 - 12:13 PM

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January 2009 was my second guess. :P


That month must've been quite the buzzkill.
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#25
wx_statman

Posted 01 July 2017 - 12:26 PM

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January 2009 was my second guess. :P

 

590dm offshore in mid-January. That one actually had 588-590 heights build into southern BC/AB a few days later, with the 582dm contour extending into the northern part of both provinces...in January. The entire province of Alberta was covered in +3-4 sigmas. 

Attached Files



#26
stuffradio

Posted 01 July 2017 - 12:39 PM

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That month must've been quite the buzzkill.

Jan/Feb 2010 was quite beautiful weather wise, but it was quite warm for the time of year.



#27
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 July 2017 - 01:16 PM

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Looks gorgeous for all of you... the marine layer never made it up that far north leaving you with a perfect day.   :)

 

It's taking its sweet time to warm up here today, only near 70F now mid-way through the afternoon and the downtown area near the harbor looks chilly. Hopefully things warm up a little for the events tonight.



#28
BLI snowman

Posted 01 July 2017 - 01:37 PM

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That month must've been quite the buzzkill.

 

It was fairly chilly actually, aside from one pineapple express event. Snowed a number of times as well. Blocking in the winter is always better than no blocking for us, aside from the rare ridgy and warm years like 1960-61 and 1980-81.


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#29
Phil

Posted 01 July 2017 - 03:22 PM

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OT, but please, shoot me. :lol:

ACE6C185-E6E4-4763-AD65-0CE19AAF85C1_zps
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#30
Phil

Posted 01 July 2017 - 03:45 PM

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It was fairly chilly actually, aside from one pineapple express event. Snowed a number of times as well. Blocking in the winter is always better than no blocking for us, aside from the rare ridgy and warm years like 1960-61 and 1980-81.


Ah, yeah forgot about those inversions.
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#31
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2017 - 04:51 PM

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No sub-80 days evar again!!!
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#32
Phil

Posted 01 July 2017 - 04:54 PM

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What a difference one year makes.

Last year at this time: Coherent S/EASM cell, easy poleward ventilation of heat from the tropical Pacific/IPWP:

B6E3F832-BAB8-449E-A903-A25AC27DF900_zps

This year thru the same period: Scrawny S/EASM Cell, and a notably crippled poleward ventilation of heat from the tropical Pacific/IPWP. The impact(s) of this on the Eurasian side of the Arctic are clear.

4F6F2E9E-D2E1-48D6-9B2D-2E4D5D311BC7_zps

Check out that SSTA gradient across the NPAC. It's mostly a "reflection" of the aforementioned, but it does thermodynamically reinforce the gradient. Going to be a fun 6+ months for weather weenies, and a headache for forecasters.
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#33
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2017 - 04:59 PM

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Our grape vines have really filled in this year.   The first 3 years we cut them down to the ground each fall to make the bases grow stronger and more sturdy... last year they just reached the top of the trellis.   They should be hanging with grapes by September.  

 

19488747_1374795792588625_21540787938579


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#34
wx_statman

Posted 01 July 2017 - 05:11 PM

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Ah, yeah forgot about those inversions.

 

Jan 2009 actually had shots of modified Arctic air both early and late in the month. Both produced accumulating snowfall in Portland. The inversion was really confined to the death ridge period mid-month. 



#35
Phil

Posted 01 July 2017 - 05:11 PM

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Such a complicated year. For example, here's the tropical forcing summary for June of 2014/2015/2009/2004 (warm summers).

Note the Pacific-based convection along/east of the dateline in all of those years:

3AE497EB-D6A5-4694-BBD8-98CD2056AD31_zps

C29A4999-ECC9-42A6-A51E-BA543927BFD6_zps

BF8DE45F-A934-4832-BECE-320D3BEC9A8F_zps

14E8C6FE-C0B6-4205-A7F8-D63E624BEAC9_zps


Versus some of the cooler summers (2010/2011/2012). Note the opppsite signal present itself, with subsidence centered over the Pacific and convection based west of the dateline:

DAEECC24-4BF6-4D5C-A7B3-7CD93B90BFFC_zps

A2DF2391-5376-462C-91D7-5F9F77EF3A8F_zps

4876A1F1-4AA3-4EEA-AC3C-621AC12FB18B_zps

Now, let's look at 2017. By all means, this should favor a -PNA and western troughing. Problem has been the EHEM monsoonal cell orientation and Eurasian wavetrain have reinforced a strong +NAO which has bucked the North American portion of the circulation.

ECB2C88C-B9C0-4651-8F7E-F163D7CD684C_zps
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#36
Phil

Posted 01 July 2017 - 05:17 PM

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So, if we can flip into a -NAO and maintain the Indonesian convection, this convoluted pattern should abort and transition into a 2010/11/12-ish state until sometime in August or September when the low-frequency forcing shifts into the WPAC/dateline area, and more persistent warmth is favored.
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#37
Deweydog

Posted 01 July 2017 - 05:22 PM

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No sub-80 days evar again!!!


It's so annoying.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#38
Phil

Posted 01 July 2017 - 05:40 PM

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Quick video I took today. Thought it was just a dry outblow boundary passage, but a squall popped up in the unstable air and I was soaked instantly. Had to abort after ~ 30 seconds.


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#39
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2017 - 05:46 PM

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It's so annoying.

 

Quoting Justin from a few nights ago.

 

Today's upper 70s were absolutely perfect. Great kayaking weather.



#40
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2017 - 05:54 PM

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Quoting Justin from a few nights ago.

Today's upper 70s were absolutely perfect. Great kayaking weather.


You remembered that one... must have made you anxious. :)

Today was very nice.

#41
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2017 - 05:55 PM

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You remembered that one... must have made you anxious. :)

Today was very nice.

 

Yep. Generally, two days ago is really hard to remember for me. Crippling anxiety attacks based on offhand posts always help.



#42
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2017 - 06:04 PM

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So, if we can flip into a -NAO and maintain the Indonesian convection, this convoluted pattern should abort and transition into a 2010/11/12-ish state until sometime in August or September when the low-frequency forcing shifts into the WPAC/dateline area, and more persistent warmth is favored.

 

So more persistent warmth as a nice change of pace after all of this persistent warmth?



#43
Phil

Posted 01 July 2017 - 06:12 PM

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So more persistent warmth as a nice change of pace after all of this persistent warmth?


Touché.

Yeah, I meant persistent warmth driven by the true background system state, rather than an extratropical wavetrain in atrial fibrillation. Though there's something to be said about extratropical instabilities accelerating changes in the tropics, and visa versa.
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#44
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2017 - 06:14 PM

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Touché.

Yeah, I meant persistent warmth driven by the true background system state, rather than an extratropical wavetrain in atrial fibrillation. Though there's something to be said about extratropical instabilities accelerating changes in the tropics, and visa versus.


Well whatever it is I hope you bust horribly. :P
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#45
Kayla

Posted 01 July 2017 - 06:31 PM

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SEA ended up at +2.0 for June.   There was measureable rain on only 6 out of 30 days... precip ended up just slightly below normal.  

 

BLI also had +2.0.

 

PDX finished with +1.8 and was drier than normal.  

 

OLM was colder as usual with +1.3

 

Basically the entire Western US was warmer than normal for June (this is through 6/29 and will be a little warmer when yesterday is included):

 

west_june.gif

 

I wonder where the WRCC pulls their data to generate these graphics? Here in Southwest MT we had a below average month. In fact, Bozeman airport ended up at -1.6 on the month which is solidly below normal.


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 0"
Highest daily snowfall 0"

Highest snow depth: 0"

Coldest high: 55.0º
Coldest low: 36.1º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#46
Phil

Posted 01 July 2017 - 06:42 PM

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Well whatever it is I hope you bust horribly. :P


My busts usually come in bunches, so you might be in luck.
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#47
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2017 - 06:49 PM

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My busts usually come in bunches, so you might be in luck.


That makes sense. Kind of a domino effect.

It sounds like this will be a hard warm season to forecast for in general.
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#48
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2017 - 07:22 PM

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Yep. Generally, two days ago is really hard to remember for me. Crippling anxiety attacks based on offhand posts always help.

 

 

I remembered something for 6 hours and you called me out. 



#49
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2017 - 07:31 PM

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I remembered something for 6 hours and you called me out.


U should make a tweet about it!

#50
Deweydog

Posted 01 July 2017 - 07:41 PM

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Quoting Justin from a few nights ago.

Today's upper 70s were absolutely perfect. Great kayaking weather.


Hilarious stuff. The misspelling was irreverence on a level reserved for such comic icons like Dorothy Voinovich and the early works of Pierre Jenkinson.

All roads lead to Walgreens.