July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[ShawniganLake]

Must be a localized thing, I can't even see cloudiness locking south over the Juan de Fuca. Nothing looking north from the harbor cam either:

 

http://i.imgur.com/Nwlzumf.jpg

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Victoria YYJ has had 4 "T's" but I guess their streak is technically still alive. Dry since June 19th.

 

It's amazing the airport somehow avoided anything measurable over the 2 "rainy" days.

[TT-SEA]

Must be a localized thing, I can't even see cloudiness locking south over the Juan de Fuca. Nothing looking north from the harbor cam either:

 

http://i.imgur.com/Nwlzumf.jpg

 

 

Actually... your sunshine is a localized thing this morning.  

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Actually... your sunshine is a localized thing this morning.  

 

 

Just my luck   

[Front Ranger]

The 'T' definitely taints it.   Water did fall from the sky.  

 

Same with other dry streaks, though. One of the longer ones had like 6 "T" days.

[Geos]

Nice shot of the edge of the cloudiness over the Strait of Juan de Fuca from the Coupeville area.

 

 

Even Hurricane Ridge is sunny.

 

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z GFS and GEM are pretty ugly in terms of heat at times next week.   GFS on top and GEM on the bottom:

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Seattle is socked in...

 

[Geos]

As I left home a heavy drizzle was falling. Enough to use the wipers. Now down here in the valley in Bothell - nothing.

[stuffradio]

Not a cloud in the sky up here.

Mostly cloudy with patchy blue sky here.

[Geos]

Got a feeling these clouds will be stubborn to break up today.

 

[TT-SEA]

Got a feeling these clouds will be stubborn to break up today.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/wfo/sew/vis.jpg

 

New 12Z ECMWF surface map does show mostly sunny skies for everyone by 5 p.m. but it will probably take until mid to late afternoon to really break up.

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles still showing a lot of spread for next week. Hopefully a major heat event can be avoided.

[ShawniganLake]

[TT-SEA]

Sun!   Its been a loooooong wait today.  

[Deweydog]

All sun here now. Sticking to grassy surfaces.

[TT-SEA]

All sun here now. Sticking to grassy surfaces.

 

I thought it would never turn over today.    

[Geos]

Sky has lightened up here in Bothell, but no breaks yet.

 

Snohomish and Skagit County socked in pretty good still.

 

[Geos]

Lost the record at SEA to have the first July or any month without any precipitation. The streak of non measurable precipitation days lives on though. Day 40 today.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

[Front Ranger]

12z GFS ensembles still showing a lot of spread for next week. Hopefully a major heat event can be avoided.

Euro not helping much...says it will be VERY close.

[Geos]

Managed to get 0.03" of rain today. 

 

Only reached 70 today.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF sucks at 120 hours.    Give us a couple big rain events and I am all for this... but not right now.  

 

[wx_statman]

Don't really buy the whole we need scorching heat throughout the summer to avoid a hot early fall schtick. Mainly a myth perpetuated by Dewey, Hillary Clinton and the liberal media.

 

It worked in 2004.

 

#NeverForget

[Jesse]

It worked in 2004.

 

#NeverForget

There are just too many exceptions to take it too seriously, even recently. Our coolest Septembers in the last 20 years (2000, 2005, 2007) all followed coolish or not especially hot summers. Then our warmest September in the last several years (2014) followed a very warm/hot summer.

 

The only year I can think of recently that followed the much touted cool early-mid summer/hot September progression was 2011.

[Jesse]

00z runs have certainly latched into the heat idea, in the more believable 5-7 day range too. Shawnigan will be pleased.

[TT-SEA]

This is pretty ugly...

 

[ShawniganLake]

00z runs have certainly latched into the heat idea, in the more believable 5-7 day range too. Shawnigan will be pleased.

Well it is in that late July/ early August window.

 

Wouldn't mind seeing some rain up in the interior. We are supposed to head to the cabin tomorrow. My mom arrived there yesterday, just as they were put on Alert. That area has to be ready to leave with 1 hr notice.

[Jesse]

Well it is in that late July/ early August window.

 

Wouldn't mind seeing some rain up in the interior. We are supposed to head to the cabin tomorrow. My mom arrived there yesterday, just as they were put on Alert. That area has to be ready to leave with 1 hr notice.

Yikes. Sounds like they could use some warm ridging.

 

There is a fire that has been smoldering in the Columbia Gorge just east of here for the last 3-4 weeks. Something tells me that might blow up if it gets hot and windy.

[Kayla]

Looking more a more likely that the 1st will be a record breaking day for the Portland area. Low hanging fruit those first few days of the month. Great ensemble agreement for 100+ on the 1st now.

 

EPS is up to 101. ECMWF operational shows 103. There are many members at or above 30c @850mb. 

[seattleweatherguy]

This is pretty ugly...

 

This shows low to mid 90s for seattle and 100 plus for portland

[VancouverIslandSouth]

This is pretty ugly...

 

 

Heading up to Sproat Lake for the BC Day long weekend, hope it lasts a few more days.

[TT-SEA]

Heading up to Sproat Lake for the BC Day long weekend, hope it lasts a few more days.

 

Never heard of that lake... just looked it up.   Gorgeous place.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Never heard of that lake... just looked it up.   Gorgeous place.

 

Best lake on the island in my biased opinion, it's in a valley down the center of the island so it gets a lot of heat, the water is crystal clear, and there are tons of quiet sheltered bays to park in and swim off the boat.

[Jesse]

Looks like this could be the second consecutive summer that PDX sees 100+ events in June and August with nothing 95+ in July.

[Jesse]

Best lake on the island in my biased opinion, it's in a valley down the center of the island so it gets a lot of heat, the water is crystal clear, and there are tons of quiet sheltered bays to park in and swim off the boat.

Personally I would be very worried about wildfires. Especially with the historic drought Vancouver Island is experiencing.

[TT-SEA]

Crap... this is actually going to happen.    Models are not backing down.

 

[Kayla]

12z GFS says the 2nd could be even worse than the 1st. Brutal.

 

[Deweydog]

I can't believe this is happening.

[Jesse]

I can't believe this is happening.

108 at PDX.

 

#setitandforgetit

 

#imsurenothingwillgowrong