July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Kayla]

I can't believe this is happening.

 

Gonna be a cool month after the all-time record is broken.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, pretty shitty to see another summer full of massive heatwaves. Pretty amazing, we had solid winters in 2013-14 and 2016-17 so not all is lost. I am actually pretty hopeful for the upcoming winter. 2008 and 2016 had big June and August heatwaves...Turned out well...

[Jesse]

Gonna be a cool month after the all-time record is broken.

That would be nice.

[GobBluth]

Wow, pretty shitty to see another summer full of massive heatwaves. Pretty amazing, we had solid winters in 2013-14 and 2016-17 so not all is lost. I am actually pretty hopeful for the upcoming winter. 2008 and 2016 had big June and August heatwaves...Turned out well...

Hyperbole. Despite the dryness the temps have been pretty D**n comfortable most of July when I would have expected massive heat. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hyperbole. Despite the dryness the temps have been pretty d**n comfortable most of July when I would have expected massive heat. 

 

True July has been amazing and June was fine outside those two days. If this can be a 2-3 day heatwave with a crash I'll be okay. Would be nice to make it through 2-3 summers in a row and not hit 100, but apparently that is to much to ask for these days. 

[GobBluth]

True July has been amazing and June was fine outside those two days. If this can be a 2-3 day heatwave with a crash I'll be okay. Would be nice to make it through 2-3 summers in a row and not hit 100, but apparently that is to much to ask for these days. 

I'm a lazy a** to check but how often do we get away with sub 100 degree summers? 

[Jesse]

True July has been amazing and June was fine outside those two days. If this can be a 2-3 day heatwave with a crash I'll be okay. Would be nice to make it through 2-3 summers in a row and not hit 100, but apparently that is to much to ask for these days.

Would definitely be nice if it ends up being a shortlived event. My fear is that this will transition us back into a hotter pattern overall, payback for July's +1F frigidness.

[Jesse]

Almost enough to make you puke. Slower/less significant cooldown too.

 

[GobBluth]

Almost enough to make you puke. Slower/less significant cooldown too.

 

IMG_5307.PNG

At a minimum 98 but with any east winds more like 102-103.

[Jesse]

At a minimum 98 but with any east winds more like 102-103.

+25C this time of year is easily 105 or higher with offshore flow.

[GobBluth]

+25C this time of year is easily 105 or higher with offshore flow.

iirc PDX got to +25 in June and topped at 101.

[Bryant]

Is summer over yet?

[Geos]

00Z ECMWF sucks at 120 hours.    Give us a couple big rain events and I am all for this... but not right now.  

 

 

Amen to that. It'll be a tinder box out there - if it isn't already.

[stuffradio]

I'll possibly reach 98 next week. Gross.

[Geos]

Looks downright toasty.

 

 

Day before too.

 

[wx_statman]

We're due for a big August heat wave. PDX reached 104+ in August of 1972, 1977, and 1981 - and hasn't topped 102 since. We should have done it in 1978 as well, when SLE hit 106 but PDX only managed 101. 

[GobBluth]

Euro says event ends Friday night, but with big ridge out in western Pacific I have to wonder if we'll get a reload.

[wx_statman]

There are just too many exceptions to take it too seriously, even recently. Our coolest Septembers in the last 20 years (2000, 2005, 2007) all followed coolish or not especially hot summers. Then our warmest September in the last several years (2014) followed a very warm/hot summer.

 

The only year I can think of recently that followed the much touted cool early-mid summer/hot September progression was 2011.

 

Speaking of 1978, that was a great example of a September crash. PDX didn't hit 80 after 9/1 (earliest on record), following a Jul-Aug that saw SLE reach 100+ on six different days. 

[Deweydog]

108 at PDX.

 

#setitandforgetit

 

#imsurenothingwillgowrong

Cross your ventricles!

 

#trendingeast

[Jesse]

Euro says event ends Friday night, but with big ridge out in western Pacific I have to wonder if we'll get a reload.

Only five consecutive days of 90+? Seems pretty conservative.

[TT-SEA]

Only five consecutive days of 90+? Seems pretty conservative.

 

12Z ECMWF for PDX:

 

Mon: 90

Tues: 99

Wed: 107

Thurs: 107 

Fri: 97

Sat: 86

 

That crash is amazing!   21 degrees over 2 days.   Going to feel frigid.  

[TT-SEA]

Would be nice if we could have today's weather all of next week instead.  

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF for PDX:

 

Mon: 90

Tues: 99

Wed: 107

Thurs: 107

Fri: 97

Sat: 86

 

That crash is amazing! 21 degrees over 2 days. Going to feel frigid.

Those numbers are probably underdone. Also way too short of a heatwave.

 

#prayingforareload.

[Jesse]

Speaking of 1978, that was a great example of a September crash. PDX didn't hit 80 after 9/1 (earliest on record), following a Jul-Aug that saw SLE reach 100+ on six different days.

Probably one of the top falls I would love a repeat of of the last 60 years. Up there with 1985 and 1964.

[James Jones]

Pretty strange to see the models showing all time record heat in the believable range. Go big or go home I guess.

 

Does anybody know what the 850s hit at SLE in July 2009 and August 1981? 

 

 

Cross your ventricles!

#trendingeast

 

Cool summer?

[Deweydog]

Pretty strange to see the models showing all time record heat in the believable range. Go big or go home I guess.

 

Does anybody know what the 850s hit at SLE in July 2009 and August 1981?

 

 

 

Cool summer?

Models have gone pretty crazy in the 4-7 day range several times in the last few years only to settle on more moderate, yet still emotionally crippling scenarios.

[James Jones]

Speaking of 1978, that was a great example of a September crash. PDX didn't hit 80 after 9/1 (earliest on record), following a Jul-Aug that saw SLE reach 100+ on six different days. 

 

1977 had a pretty huge crash too. The first 17 days of August that year had an absurd average high of 94 at PDX, then we crashed and only hit 80 three more times the rest of the year. That month also had a major three day rain event from the 23-25th.

[stuffradio]

Models have gone pretty crazy in the 4-7 day range several times in the last few years only to settle on more moderate, yet still emotionally crippling scenarios.

In 2014? The models were showing freakin' cold temps for the end of December. Would have been one for the ages, but then it completely became watered down. I still remember those days now, riding the models like that.

[Deweydog]

In 2014? The models were showing freakin' cold temps for the end of December. Would have been one for the ages, but then it completely became watered down. I still remember those days now, riding the models like that.

I was referring specifically to heat events. I think 2015 had one stretch of 30c progs in the believable range. Even the hottest runs for next week, save for the latest Euro, have kept us on the western periphery. Lower thicknesses will usually win out as getting anything out of the mid 570's is tough with even weak onshore flow.

[Jesse]

1977 had a pretty huge crash too. The first 17 days of August that year had an absurd average high of 94 at PDX, then we crashed and only hit 80 three more times the rest of the year. That month also had a major three day rain event from the 23-25th.

Another really fun late summer/early fall pattern progression. Maybe a big heat event next week will set us up for something similar. I can dream right?

[wx_statman]

Probably one of the top falls I would love a repeat of of the last 60 years. Up there with 1985 and 1964.

 

1964 was crazy. Didn't even hit 90 until August 10th, and then immediately transitioned into the coolest September on record. The exact opposite of what happened in 2011 starting in late August. 

[wx_statman]

Pretty strange to see the models showing all time record heat in the believable range. Go big or go home I guess.

 

Does anybody know what the 850s hit at SLE in July 2009 and August 1981? 

 

 

 

Cool summer?

 

25.2 in 2009 and 25.8 in 1981. Those soundings are only taken twice a day though (12Z and 00Z), so they don't capture the maximum 850's that occurred.

[wx_statman]

1977 had a pretty huge crash too. The first 17 days of August that year had an absurd average high of 94 at PDX, then we crashed and only hit 80 three more times the rest of the year. That month also had a major three day rain event from the 23-25th.

 

Yeah, that was a pretty epic pattern flip on the 18th. And that followed the mother of all reload heatwave sequences. 

[Jesse]

1964 was crazy. Didn't even hit 90 until August 10th, and then immediately transitioned into the coolest September on record. The exact opposite of what happened in 2011 starting in late August.

Another example of a cool summer that didn't default to a torchy fall.

[wx_statman]

Another example of a cool summer that didn't default to a torchy fall.

 

50-year old examples with an SO2-loaded atmosphere in a long term -PDO phase. Very relevant. 

[Jesse]

50-year old examples with an SO2-loaded atmosphere in a long term -PDO phase. Very relevant.

There are recent examples as well. You never made your viewpoint very clear though.

[seattleweatherguy]

12Z ECMWF for PDX:

 

Mon: 90

Tues: 99

Wed: 107

Thurs: 107

Fri: 97

Sat: 86

 

That crash is amazing! 21 degrees over 2 days. Going to feel frigid.

For Seattle

 

85

89

95

97

89

82

 

Just guessing.

[wx_statman]

There are recent examples as well. You never made your viewpoint very clear though.

 

I don't have a point of view on this. All I know is that wavelengths change as we transition from Aug to Sep, a sequence that can shake up the prevailing pattern that had dominated JJA (or JA). 

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS is certainly not backing down... and maybe extending the heat.

 

 

We will be in Minnesota one week from today... looks chilly there while its baking here.

 

[Deweydog]

I don't have a point of view on this. All I know is that wavelengths change as we transition from Aug to Sep, a sequence that can shake up the prevailing pattern that had dominated JJA (or JA).

You're getting lumped in with me and HRC. Not a good place to be.