July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

Washington is so varied in climate. Look at the high temp for tomorrow... most of WA is scorching hot.

 

 

I can understand saying maybe Seattle has some of the best summer weather in the country... but WA is too vague.

 

And Phil... they considered much more than weather here. MN scored high because of the lakes.

Strange to see a scientific article like that paint with such a broad brush.

[TT-SEA]

Strange to see a scientific article like that paint with such a broad brush.

 

It was actually a pretty funny read.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS scrapes us with the bottom of a trough around Sunday/Monday and then builds the ridge up again in a week.    Looks like the faucet completely shut off in mid-June for good.    In our analog years of 1983 and 1993 it kept raining all the way through the end of July before drying out.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017070412/gfs_z500a_namer_33.png

[ShawniganLake]

12Z GFS scrapes us with the bottom of a trough around Sunday/Monday and then builds the ridge up again in a week. Looks like the faucet completely shut off in mid-June for good. In our analog years of 1983 and 1993 it kept raining all the way through the end of July before drying out.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017070412/gfs_z500a_namer_33.png

Seems like those analogs have been deemed unreliable.

 

Hopefully the weather finds a way to be nice next weekend as we are heading up to our cabin for a few days. Sounds like we have some windfall trees to clean up and hope to get a sunny day or two on the lake.

[Jesse]

It was actually a pretty funny read.

I enjoyed it.

[Deweydog]

Seems like those analogs have been deemed unreliable.

 

Hopefully the weather finds a way to be nice next weekend as we are heading up to our cabin for a few days. Sounds like we have some windfall trees to clean up and hope to get a sunny day or two on the lake.

You can't clean up downed trees on an overcast day????

[Jesse]

You can't clean up downed trees on an overcast day????

Preach it sister!!

[ShawniganLake]

You can't clean up downed trees on an overcast day????

Nope, sunny or it's a no go.

 

It's going to be our first family gathering there since my dad passed away in March. Would be nice to spend some time doing the things we loved to do up there.

[BLI snowman]

Washington is so varied in climate.  Look at the high temp for tomorrow... most of WA is scorching hot.  

 

 

 

I can understand saying maybe Seattle has some of the best summer weather in the country... but WA is too vague.

 

And Phil... they considered much more than weather here.   MN scored high because of the lakes.  

 

Most states are scorching hot or humid in the summer.

 

Even with much of the "hot" interior of WA, most locations' daytime averages don't top 85-86 and the nights cool down promptly with the extremely low humidity. I'd definitely still rate the summers of somewhere like Spokane or Wenatchee or Pullman as comfortable overall. 

[TT-SEA]

Most states are scorching hot or humid in the summer.

 

Even with much of the "hot" interior of WA, most locations' daytime averages don't top 85-86 and the nights cool down promptly with the extremely low humidity. I'd definitely still rate the summers of somewhere like Spokane or Wenatchee or Pullman as comfortable overall. 

 

That is much like the entire Intermountain West.

[BLI snowman]

That is much like the entire Intermountain West.

 

Right, but then the other half of WA is much cooler than those states in the summer, at least in the daytime. Hence the ranking.

[Jesse]

Temperatures look dead on average in the mid-long range on the ensembles.

 

[TT-SEA]

Temperatures look dead on average in the mid-long range on the ensembles.

 

IMG_3642.PNG

 

Perfection.  

[Jesse]

Perfection.

Very nice at face value. Cooler than the op.

[Phil]

12Z GFS scrapes us with the bottom of a trough around Sunday/Monday and then builds the ridge up again in a week. Looks like the faucet completely shut off in mid-June for good. In our analog years of 1983 and 1993 it kept raining all the way through the end of July before drying out.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017070412/gfs_z500a_namer_33.png

Can't wait to troll you into oblivion when it starts raining. I'm already thinking up sarcastic puns and Jesse-approved memes.

[TT-SEA]

Can't wait to troll you into oblivion when it starts raining. I'm already thinking up sarcastic puns and Jesse-approved memes.

You already do that... as I mentioned. And this was more of a reference to the fact that 1993 was in fact a good match globally since March.

[Jesse]

Can't wait to troll you into oblivion when it starts raining. I'm already thinking up sarcastic puns and Jesse-approved memes.

 

Just don't let it corner you into overly aggressive, ulimately busted forecasts again.

 

We'll have to wait until late October at the earliest for the rain to start with the ultra-torchy fall on the way anyway, right?

[TT-SEA]

Just don't let it corner you into overly aggressive, ulimately busted forecasts again.

 

We'll have to wait until late October at the earliest for the rain to start with the ultra-torchy fall on the way anyway, right?

I don't really care about a rainy forecast from Phil in November or December anyways... its always rainy then. Warm season is where its at... and its been a gem since the middle of May this year.

[TT-SEA]

And we had a perfect Memorial Day weekend and now 4th of July. Nature is definitely rewarding us for the terrible spring here.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is in agreement with the GFS on building the ridge up again in a week after a minor cool down on Monday.

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF is in agreement with the GFS on building the ridge up again in a week after a minor cool down on Monday.

 

Looks like the EURO is making the same mistake at day 9-10 as it did for later this week into the weekend several days ago.

[Phil]

You already do that... as I mentioned. And this was more of a reference to the fact that 1993 was in fact a good match globally since March.

I've been pretty easy on you this year, I think.

 

Believe it or not, I'd much prefer a ridge west/trough east summer as opposed to the contrary. Though even that pattern rarely cools us down in July/August. I'm sitting outside here and it's 93/70 and miserable, despite a trough overhead. Makes me despise your perfect summer climate even more, tbh.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the EURO is making the same mistake at day 9-10 as it did for later this week into the weekend several days ago.

 

Could be.  

[Jesse]

Could be.

Hopefully not. Record hot July or bust. Our summers are total crap unless record heat is constantly present.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully not. Record hot July or bust. Our summers are total crap unless record heat is constantly present.

 

Who said that?    

[Deweydog]

Who said that?

America and Jesus.

[Jesse]

[WeatherArchive]

Hopefully not. Record hot July or bust. Our summers are total crap unless record heat is constantly present.

It seems to the weather (Gods) it's a national emergency if we can't have warmer then average summers.   Send everyone to the bomb shelters we are going to have a -1.0 departure!  (Air raid siren sounds and everyone rushes to the shelter and brings their radio with them so they can hear the all-clear signal)

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Temperatures look dead on average in the mid-long range on the ensembles.

 

IMG_3642.PNG

 

I remember a time when these charts still included rainfall.

[TT-SEA]

I remember a time when these charts still included rainfall.

Yeah... hopefully we can get through the next few weeks and back to 10 months of rain. This short break is terrifying.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Yeah... hopefully we can get through the next few weeks and back to 10 months of rain. This short break is terrifying.

 

We're deep in the red now, October can't come soon enough!

 

http://bcfireinfo.for.gov.bc.ca/Weather/Maps/pcp.png

[TT-SEA]

We're deep in the red now, October can't come soon enough!

 

http://bcfireinfo.for.gov.bc.ca/Weather/Maps/pcp.png

There will not be a BC by then.

[stuffradio]

We're deep in the red now, October can't come soon enough!

 

http://bcfireinfo.for.gov.bc.ca/Weather/Maps/pcp.png

Despite this, BC wildfire services said this year has been a very slow start to wildfire season.

[TT-SEA]

Despite this, BC wildfire services said this year has been a very slow start to wildfire season.

He was trolling... its daily rainfall.

[ShawniganLake]

Speaking of wildfires, there were 100 homes evacuated and at least 2 burned in the Okanagan today.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS, GEM, and GFS Parallel are much more troughy for early next week.

 

Jesse was onto something yesterday.

[Jesse]

12Z GFS, GEM, and GFS Parallel are much more troughy for early next week.

 

Jesse was onto something yesterday.

No special skill was required there really. The models have been pretty consistent in digging things too far offshore and retrograding the 4CH over our region too aggressively in the mid-long range for a week or more now.

[Deweydog]

First 90-free July since the last 90-free July?

So close...

[Jesse]

So close...

Could've been one of your best fake predictions in years. Next time...

[BLI snowman]

July has really underperformed this decade with just one hitting triple digits at PDX so far, and it looks like that streak could continue this year. Blech.

 

18z does give some hope but it's been known to dangle carrots in that range!